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There seems to be some debate as to whether Luckie is a “good” ref or not. Since good is such a subjective word I thought I would try to add some statistics to the debate.
Luckie has reffed four games for NCSU this year. We are 1-3 in those games (NCCU, WF, Pitt and FSU)
We are 14-7 on the year.Here are stats directly related to reffing games. Granted there are two other refs and I did not look for any correlation between the others but there does seem to be some striking differences.
Average numer of PF called against NCSU for the season – 18
Average number of PF called against NCSU when Luickie refs – 23.5Average number of PF called against NCSU’s opponent for the season – 19.1
Average number of PF called against NCSU’s opponent when Luickie refs – 20.7Average number of FTs NCSU shoots for the season – 17.9
Average number of FTs NCSU shoots when Luckie refs – 14.5Average number of FTs NCSU opponents shoots for the season – 22
Average number of FTs NCSU opponents shoots when Luckie refs – 33.5Average fouls for TJ Warren for the season – 2.4
Average fouls for TJ Warren when Luckie refs – 4.5To summarize, when Luckie refs NCSU gets called for an average of 5 more fouls per game, shoots 3 1/2 fewer FTs while the opponents get to shoot 11 1/2 more FTs a game.
Also Warren is almost guaranteed to foul out.Great points Rick. Expect to see Luckie Saturday and maybe King Karl will be with him as well.
I thought he made (or “missed”) several important calls Weds but what bothered me more than anything was the consistency. What seems to be a foul on one end was a no call on the other end.
One other telling stat was the FT’s shot. We always hear (use the word tendencies) that jump shooting teams go to the FT line less than driving/penetrating teams. Yet we shoot fewer 3’s and jump shots than our opponents yet our opponents go to the FT line more, and very blatant in the FSU game.
I’d like to give him the benefit of the doubt and say “he’s calling the games the new way – emphasis on the rules!!”, but the sample size now is such that this appears to be a trend more than anything else. Sad face.
That said, he does get the benefit of the doubt on one factor – other members of the respective crews were excluded from the data. Still, this is more than a bit jarring.
The Central game in particular was a complete abomination (45 free throws – really?) … We lost to zone defenses against Pitt and Wake – still weren’t done any favors by the stripes. I didn’t have too much of a problem with the FSU game – of course, we won. Down the stretch though, FSU got to the line an awful lot.
A great source of bemusement for all Pack fans – we attack the interior on almost every possession through dribble penetration or post play, yet average far fewer free throws than a typical team with this play style (ahem, unx). How is it that we can be so aggressive on offense and go to the line less? Are other teams *that* much better at interior defense? Laughable.
For teams Luckie has officiated at least 3 games, here is how he deviates from each teams fouls per game:
NC State 5.5
Syracuse 1.3
Rutgers 0.7
La Salle 0.7
Florida (0.3)
Wake Forest (0.5)
Virginia (0.7)
Villanova (1.2)
Florida State (2.0)
Virginia Tech (2.3)
Miami (FL) (5.0)Let’s hope we don’t see him in Miami.
.. I was up all night… but didn’t get lucky…
Great job Rick…
and ErB put the icing on your cake…Now… given the ‘facts’ as presented above…
one question for all you bball guys….To win.. you GOTT to coach around this… How do you do that ??
#NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!If it was consistent for each team you could coach around it.
I do not know how you can coach around it when it is so one sided. Do ou just not play defense and hope you can out score the other team? I have no idea.This is something that should be RAMMED down the throat of Swoff and the ACC office. This is BLATANT. This is pure statistics and there is no way they can dispute the disparity. Someone should “inform” AD Yow with this info. Worst case she could get some engineers with a statistical background to double check the numbers.
Smarter than the average bear
All good…all good.
However, there are several parts to the equation that are missing.
One huge one is they fact that there are indeed, two other officials on the floor with the statistical data used. This can’t be stressed enough, IMO.
Particularly so, when one other official, a guy by the name of Sean Hull is on board. Mr. Hull, a guy who calls State games at 21.3, in his own right, and was excessively present in the losses to both Pitt and Wake. I must say that on those occasions when I am taken aback by game officiating, it is Sean Hull who gets the honors.
I highly recommend paying attention as to who is actually blowing the whistle out there.
I don’t see how one can use free throw margin as a true indicator unless one has the statistic of the number of front ends missed to make total free throws valid. Lord knows State has blown quite a few of those. Also absent in the stat is fouling with intent to put an opposition at the line when trailing late in the game.
Luckie is a name brand. Luckie is not on the Vegas Showgirl line with Hess, Valentine and Dorsey. Luckie handles players and coaches in a professional manner. When was the last time you have seen him T up someone? Hmmm?
Bottom line to me is…watch replays whenever possible. Ask Beej.
Hull has called three of our games
App St WF and Pitt. The averages are amost identical for the two games as for the four games.
No statistical difference between with and without Hull.Fouls per game. this is over a long time period so “the new rules” are not reflected but
Hull games=34 1FPG=17
Luckie games=58 FPG=18“How do you Coach around it?”
OK…
Same question… different way….What do you do in the office when everybody knows your new boss is a A&&hat the very first day AND everybody knows they will be with the company long after than the A$$hat boss has moved on ?
During that period… do you still get your work done ?
#NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!Just because I watched the replay of the FSU game early this morning. Well maybe it was insomnia. Regardless looking at the replay I honestly didn’t a foul call on the Pack I could argue with. Viewing the game live I thought I saw a couple but with the benefit of the replay I now think not. Obviously this is not statistical but my perception that game was called reasonably. I have not done the same with the other games in the series mentioned here. I do not like Luckie at all so I really wanted to find an issue.
Mr. Dog… was Senor Hull the bigroundpueroricanlooking zebra who looked inexperienced, hesitant and out of sync the other night against the Noles ?
#NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!Mr. Dog… was Senor Hull the bigroundpueroricanlooking zebra who looked inexperienced, hesitant and out of sync the other night against the Noles ?
He has 18 years of experience so if he acting like that he is bad indeed
Not sure if this adds much given the anecdotal nature but yesterday as I was listening to the local sports talk show guys who cover the Noles, they made a point of saying how they could not believe they got all of the calls on the road. That they feel it does not usually happen for them. Specifically they said that they thought there were a number of questionable calls that went their way and how surprising it was. Went on to say that they thought there were some that were clearly fouls on them but were called against the Pack.
Of course they added to that with all of that going for them then how did they lose to an NCSU team that stinks this year. Basically said that Pack had one player and a bunch of nobodies who were not quality players.
^Haha they get points for being objective about calls, but turn around and lose said points by calling State a ‘one man team’ (though in fairness, it was Warren that torched them).
There’s some talent on this team. Young – and all that comes with being young – but talent nonetheless.
Still, you don’t often hear opposing fans / associates admit to getting calls – of course all we hear about are Duke and unx and they’re supposed to get the calls. Maybe other fan bases can actually be rational and see reason … I guess losing touch with reality happens when you get stuff handed to you all the time.
I can’t comment on the stats, but with the eye test, we’re a really handsy team and don’t move our feet or get in position on defense, and we’re out of control with the ball a lot on offense. It does not surprise me that other teams are getting the benefit of the calls.
Bill raises a good point. Do people even know who these guys are…can you tell Jones from Hull…Luckie from Natili…Kersey from Dorsey?
No…? Well, don’t expect some that do, take those who don’t, seriously if ya wanna talk about a given ref.
I need not remind peeps that every last zeeb, for that opening day ACCT. was to spat up for KH.
^hard to tell whose who on the small screen unless they get facetime….
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… and I’m thinking how is it possible that nobody at SFN ever had an A$$HAT BOSS .. but me ?Professor Rick’s stats don’t work so much against us as they COULD WORK FOR US !!!
Knowledge is power… and bball is about fifty – sixty percent MATH… so now what’s going to be our excuse the next time we see Mr. Lucky ??
I’m thinking … Our kids all just GOTT to learn to do what they all GOTT to do with Mr. Lucky or without as the case may be….
The rest of us did…. sooner or later….#NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!I need not remind peeps that every last zeeb, for that opening day ACCT. was to spat up for KH.
AHA!!!!!! So then you admit that it’s a conspiracy and they’re ALL out to get us!?!?!?!?
And hasn’t it occurred to you that Luckie knows we’re onto him and has thus outsourced his screwjob responsibilities to Hull????
Sheesh ‘Dog.
The triumvirate of Swoff, Clougherty and Bill Friday’s ghost will be by to take you into custody momentarily….have your bags packed.
The f’ing moron CHOSE to put himself at the center of controversy by publicly sharing with the world that he is biased. Click here.
People with that bad of judgement should just be fired for stupidity.
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