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I first wrote about the Dance Card during the last year of the Herbble. As most people know, The Dance Card is the work of two college professors and
[See the full post at: The Dance Card]^Pomeroy has said numerous times that his methodology is only meant to be predictive of Team A playing Team B. Wichita State got a bid last year with its relatively unimpressive resume because it played the early part of its year against a fairly strong OOC schedule without it’s all-conference point guard who was injured. IMO, that’s more of an example where the committee may have used KenPom to justify a sound decision, when the subjectives–the loss of a key player early–knowingly hurt its positioning in other polling and ranking systems.
Pomeroy has said numerous times that his methodology is only meant to be predictive of Team A playing Team B.
Depending on its accuracy, that might not be a bad way to choose between two bubble teams. But we don’t know really know “if” or “how” it is used by the selection committee.
The injury excuse is a hard one to keep straight and apply evenly. But that’s not why the only reason their resume was unimpressive. (Resume summarized last year.)
1-1 against Top 25 teams
0-1 against 26-50 teamsTheir OOC SOS was impressive numerically (25th), but that ranking is obviously based on avoiding the bottom dwellers, not by playing top teams. In any event, they were selected and I would have voted to leave them home. At least last year’s committee didn’t pass on any deserving teams. My summary from last year:
But frankly, no one on this list has a resume that is screaming out for inclusion in a tournament to crown a national champion. If we ignore Wichita St (and resist the temptation to attribute it to reputation), then it doesn’t look to me like the Committee did a horrible job this year.
In my post-selection entry, I try to link interesting articles and include important points in the comments. I thought it was interesting that the Dance Card methodology lined up with this passage from last year:
When Joe Castiglione [Selection Committee Chariman] made his media rounds after the Selection Show to explain the committee’s decisions, he repeatedly mentioned the number of RPI top-50 wins that bubble teams did and did not have. He didn’t mention the records that bubble teams had against RPI top-50 competition. Just the number of wins. And, when you look at the bubble teams that did and didn’t make the cut, it becomes apparent how much of an impact the metric had.
Bubble Teams’ RPI Top-50 Wins Bubble Teams in the FieldNumber of RPI Top-50 Wins
Syracuse 5
Temple 5
Michigan 4
Tulsa 4
Vanderbilt 2
Wichita State 1Bubble Teams Out of the Field Number of RPI Top-50 Wins
St. Bonaventure 3
St. Mary’s 2
Monmouth 1
South Carolina 1
San Diego State 1
Valparaiso 1I think I speak for entire Supreme Soviet (and all of Glorious Proletariat, even) when I say I’d be fine with the committee just using VA Wolf to make the picks.
Heck, I don’t even mind his distaste for the mid-majors no more. They ain’t what they used to be.
Are there even motions in the Proletariat?
Yes, they’re called “coups”.
I vote for a bloody one in Indianapolis, then we’ll install VaWolf as our puppet dictator and then we’ll make him select Bethune-Cookman EVERY DAMNED YEAR!!!!!!!I’d be fine with a glorious new tractor factory in Lexington.
Communism is so neutral and sterile, give me blood and soil any day of the week.
McCallum
Everything I know about the NCAA tournament bubble I learned from VA Wolf…And unfortunately, again, I have no reason to care.
A general note…In both football and basketball perhaps it is time to move to a selection process that kind of eliminates conferences and just looks towards “major teams” vs. “minor” teams.
In this example – our football record of 5-5 was decent against “major” teams..Our current basketball record – well, there’s a reason why I won’t be doing much visiting to the dance card website
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