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While a win at Syracuse would’ve clearly propelled the Pack into ‘playing to stay in the Tournament’ the loss certainly didn’t crush us mathematically.
State’s current RPI now sits at #51.
If we can HOPEFULLY project wins at VPI, vs Miami and at Boston College then we’ve got three chances to boost the RPI with a road win and put ourselves at 10-8 in the ACC with games at Clemson (Tuesday night); vs UNC-CH; and at (now struggling) Pitt.
If it weren’t for ACC officiating at Wake and Syracuse we’d be 8-4 in the league and playing for seeding with a Top 35 RPI or better.
THANKS, ACC!!
State’s overall SOS jumped about 16 spots just by playing Syracuse. This SOS improvement was large enough that State’s RPI ranking went up, even with the loss. However, State still has to play BC (5-18) and VT (9-15) and both of those games will negatively impact the SOS and thus RPI. That last sentence doesn’t necessarily mean that State’s RPI will go down even with a win against VT/BC…but it could (especially the home game against BC).
Tenn lost on Sat, leaving State with no Top 50 wins. So I’m not sure that a win against SYR would have definitely been enough. But this hypothetical win would have been a HUGE step in the right direction.
Through Friday’s games, the Dance Card had State on the true bubble…last team in. We’ll see what the new calcs bring sometime Monday afternoon, but my takeaway is that State is close. A few losses (especially of the WTF variety) will sink all chances and a few key wins along with the all of the expected wins should get State in.
The Clemson game is a horrible one at a horrible time. A win proves little to the Selection Committee and a loss would suggest that the close game at SYR was just a fluke. I’ve seen State (and others) lay eggs at Little John so many times over the years that Clemson would have to be truly horrible for me to ever pencil in a win there.
I looked up Pitt’s recent results and they are 2-4 over the last 3 weeks. But their losses are to Duke, UVA, Syracuse, and UNC. I’m not sure if that counts as struggling or just a really tough schedule.
“The Clemson game is a horrible one at a horrible time. A win proves little to the Selection Committee and a loss would suggest that the close game at SYR was just a fluke. I’ve seen State (and others) lay eggs at Little John so many times over the years that Clemson would have to be truly horrible for me to ever pencil in a win there.”
^This previous game may beat us twice no matter who or where we would play next. It’s just a tough scheduling break that it’s at Clemson, which would be tough on us regardless.
That team proved Saturday night, that on any given night, it can play with anybody.
Now it’s time to prove it can overcome that kind of loss and keep that level of intensity against a more evenly matched team.
I think it’s 50/50 whether we go 10-8 or 9-9. Unless we go 11-7 I just don’t think our RPI will be high enough to be in the conversation. We are playing with more consistency from game to game, but we are still subject to long dry stretches on the offensive end.
I will also say that when your rotation includes one Soph. who has played significant minutes prior to this year, four freshmen, a red shirt Sr. who has never been good enough to play before, a JUCO transfer, and a regular transfer, going 11-7 would be very close to their expected ceiling.
This is the type of article that I will have time to do as soon as that lottery ticket hits big:
http://thebiglead.com/2014/02/13/ncaa-tournament-bubble-5-spots-for-19-teams-with-one-month-to-go/
The key point is that the article actually illustrates something that I’ve been saying for years….there are a lot of teams fighting for the last few at-large bids. By this author’s count, there are 19 teams fighting for the last 5 spots. Remember this article the next time someone tries to inject head-to-head results into bubble discussions.
How much would an FSU win tonight over the Illiterates improve our RPI?
I’m hoping for another walk-off defeat. Dagbrun it!
This game won’t affect State’s RPI calculation tomorrow morning since State has played both teams once. (The ranking might change anyway because of a bunch of other games.) But if all you care about is RPI, then you want UNC to win because State plays them twice and only plays FSU once.
However having FSU move back in the Top 50 is way more important that whatever microscopic difference a UNC win would have on State’s final RPI… so we want FSU to win a bunch of games down the stretch. Besides, I see no reason to root against my 2nd favorite team (and I’m not talking about just FSU).
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