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On a more analytical level, 1.21JW spent alot of time and effort comparing Gott’s teams to those that make various levels of achievement in the NCAAT.
I remember. I’m no statistician, and I’m sure Jiga is a good one, but it didn’t take a genius to see that the analysis was designed to show up Coach Gott as a bad coach who couldn’t teach defense. It went so far as to predict either we wouldn’t make the tourney or if we did we wouldn’t advance. Then, when we turned the season around, starting winning, and made it to the sweet 16, we never heard another word from Jiga. Everything he was trying to prove about Gott didn’t happen that way.
Coach K is clearly on the decline and spiraling downward and it looks like from the above Larranaga can’t recruit.
Don’t look now, but we are playing pretty good defense. Our problems have certainly been more on the offensive end. Those still blaming the defense are not seeing it the same as me, but I don’t claim to be an expert.
Don’t look now, but we are playing pretty good defense
I must have not been looking when Duke shot 70% in the second half.
On a more analytical level, 1.21JW spent alot of time and effort comparing Gott’s teams to those that make various levels of achievement in the NCAAT.
I remember. I’m no statistician, and I’m sure Jiga is a good one, but it didn’t take a genius to see that the analysis was designed to show up Coach Gott as a bad coach who couldn’t teach defense. It went so far as to predict either we wouldn’t make the tourney or if we did we wouldn’t advance. Then, when we turned the season around, starting winning, and made it to the sweet 16, we never heard another word from Jiga. Everything he was trying to prove about Gott didn’t happen that way.
His point was defense wins championships. Gott has not won a championship to dispel that notion.
Don’t look now, but we are playing pretty good defense. Our problems have certainly been more on the offensive end. Those still blaming the defense are not seeing it the same as me, but I don’t claim to be an expert.
The stats were put on this thread somewhere. They were Ok but hardly great.
I must have not been looking when Duke shot 70% in the second half.
What did they shoot in the first half? You can cherry pick all you want to prove most anything. Look at the defensive stats, we’re not bad.
What really changed the game in the second half was Cat’s injury. That is probably Gott’s fault too, but we couldn’t run our offense the same anymore. To his credit, Cat played through it, but it did turn the game around.
Not cherry picking. Discussed it in the first half in the game thread. We weren’t good on D against Duke. They were getting wide open looks all day long, and then were able to drive nearly at will without resistance.
We seem to be better overall on D than we have been. But there’s still a ways to go, and it certainly has not been enough to cover for our offensive woes.
We can’t put the ball in the hole consistently. That’s what is killing us this year. We need shooters not athletes. I’ll say it again, think about Etimov and Melvin running this offense. Those guys would be wearing it out from the high post. Painter and Howell did it. Calvin figured out how to put the ball on the floor from the low post and finish. It’s not like the kind of guys you need to run this system won’t come to NC State.
As someone who at times has had a man crush on Frenchy, this year has been gut wrenching for me. I keep expecting him to experience the Richard Howell transformation and the broken leg just killed him this off season. I still think it could happen next season, but with each passing year it gets less likely.
Just hoping for an NIT invite and a long run in it, if for no other reason, to give Frenchy and Henderson more time to recover from injury and develop for next season.
But I’m expecting a season’s end one or two games into the ACC Tourney.
Divest now, if you haven’t already.
On a more analytical level, 1.21JW spent alot of time and effort comparing Gott’s teams to those that make various levels of achievement in the NCAAT.
I remember. I’m no statistician, and I’m sure Jiga is a good one, but it didn’t take a genius to see that the analysis was designed to show up Coach Gott as a bad coach who couldn’t teach defense. It went so far as to predict either we wouldn’t make the tourney or if we did we wouldn’t advance. Then, when we turned the season around, starting winning, and made it to the sweet 16, we never heard another word from Jiga. Everything he was trying to prove about Gott didn’t happen that way.
Normally I wouldn’t give a troll a second thought but I won’t let the hard work I spent on that piece be disparaged without a rebuttal.
I started that series with the single purpose of determining what it takes to reach the Final Four, since National Champions must reach it and reaching the Final Four can be a game changer for a program. I set out to determine what the teams who made the FF had statistically in common from a tempo free standpoint. After I determined what the FF and NC teams had in common, Highly Efficient Defenses, during that time period I expanded it to find out how our current HC (Gottfried) has done over his career. See he’d taken 2 teams to the Sweet 16 and 1 to the Elite 8 and I was curious as to how those and all of his teams during that time period compared. After I compared and found out none of his teams feel within the statistical probability of reaching the FF I then expanded it to research what teams in each round look like. Not once did I set out to bash Gottfried, it was and still is an honest look at him and his teams as to how they compare against the rest of the field and what was his teams’ statistical probabilities of making each round. The same can be applied to any coach if anyone was to use my analysis to research Coach X. So your comment has no truth to it, only your biased point of view.
After I finished the article series I thought it would be interesting to try and use it as predictive tool for likely outcomes. With the overlap of multiple rounds it’s difficult to say exactly which round a team will reach but thanks to Standard Deviations you can use it to determine how far a team should go short of a major upset or baring a miracle run is reaching a certain round just wishful thinking. Looking at the data you can break the tournament down into 3 Tiers: I (R64-S16), II (E8-RU), III (NC). With the exception of 1 season during the time period looked at, Gottfried coached teams (including both S16 runs at State) were Tier I teams when they exited the tournaments. FYI, the single season they finished as a Tier II team they lost in the S16 (underachieved) and his E8 season was a high Tier I team (overachieved). The better his defenses were the better he increased his chances of getting further into the tournament.
The point wasn’t to bash Gottfried but to honestly look at what it takes to win big, highly efficient defenses (usually resulting from low effective FG% and at least 1 other but usually 2 of the other Four Factors) that accompany highly efficient offenses (which is one of Gottfried coached teams strengths).
When it came to last season’s tournament I never said State wouldn’t make the tournament, just that they were falling on the bubble and State came in as a below average Tier I team thus the statistical likely outcome was to lose during the first weekend, more likely the first game. It took a unlikely miracle putback hookshot from Anya to get the win in the R64. They played strong in the win over Villanova but all the talk of great defense in that game isn’t accurate. Nova was within a possession of tying the game in the final minute as State gave up over a point per possession for the entire game, that is not great defense just great offense. In the end a below average Tier I team ended up overachieving but still failing to break out of their Tier.
As for why I haven’t been around it’s frankly no one’s business on here how I spend my time.
Sweet Christ. There is making a point and then there is dropping the mic. The above post is the later. Well done sir.
but I won’t let the hard work I spent on that piece be disparaged without a rebuttal
Nor should you. The piece is very comprehensive, very objective. It’s very well done. Don’t knock it just because you don’t like the findings.
Don’t knock it just because you don’t like the findings.
You must be new around here. 🙂
That little tendency goes all the way back to the glory days of the HSSS.I am certainly not a statistics expert and I probably could not coach a rock throwing team. However, this coaching staff seems to be failing “the eye test” so to speak. Year 5 and only 1 point guard on the roster does not appear to be a recipe for success. Offering so many of the elite HS talents with so few takers does not appear to be a good strategy at this time. Poor fundamentals that seem to affect both the offense & defense. So many open scholarships and not a single player willing to come in with a work ethic to earn playing time as a guard or perhaps deemed worthy of an offer? Usually we have multiple departures after each season that do not appear to make sense from the outside. I realize that our head coach and AD are inseparably linked. I am concerned with what looks to be a decline in recent ROI in Wolfpack family investment. Other teams are taking what looks to be lesser talent and beating us regularly. Sorry for the rant. Just color me frustrated. Go Pack!! Prove my concerns to be unjustified!
Year 5 and only 1 point guard on the roster does not appear to be a recipe for success.
Smh.
Technically, there is more than one point guard on the roster. Yeah, no one counts the mop up crew, but in this case, it’s a relevant point.
Quality point guards aren’t going to come if they see likely bench time and talent ahead of them. It’s the state of college basketball in 2016.
Two McD’s left because Barber was ahead of them. No ACC ready point guard was going to sign as long as Barber was around. Period.
Lacey was to be the backup point this year.
All signs point to this being Barber’s last year, and literally, THE top ranked point guard in his class is sitting on the bench ready to take the reigns next year.
Some people gonna bitch and point fingers regardless, but missed the mark on this one.
Some people gonna bitch and point fingers regardless, but missed the mark on this one.
No its not missing the mark. We do NOT have enough guards and you can make excuses until the cows come home but that’s reality. And if the coaches spent two years with Lacey and had no idea he had money troubles then maybe, just maybe, they aren’t communicating with the players like they should. But please ignore the obvious signs (2 1/2 players a year leaving with eligibility) and make more excuses. Its just like the HSSS days. When you look for an excuse for not succeeding you can always find one. This is a bad year and who knows, maybe we get back to the magic sweet 16 which is the pinnacle of success for some on here but Gott has shown me no reason to believe he will ever do anything more.
Year 5 and….
Nitpick Alert:
The length of time at a school has little impact on whether or not a coach/team is going to have a bad year. For instance, in 2010 UNC went 5-11 in conference.
Year 5 and….
Nitpick Alert:
The length of time at a school has little impact on whether or not a coach/team is going to have a bad year. For instance, in 2010 UNC went 5-11 in conference.
In theory a coach is building to something. Once he purges the players he did not recruit, he is dealing with what he recruited so he should be moving forward not regressing by year 5. Its why everyone says a coach should get 5 years, that is enough time to bring on his team and instill his style of play. In the first few years it would make more sense to have a down year, that is unless the coach is not bringing the quality/quantity of players needed to have a successful team.
Year 5 and….
Nitpick Alert:
The length of time at a school has little impact on whether or not a coach/team is going to have a bad year. For instance, in 2010 UNC went 5-11 in conference.
That really doesnt compare here because the 2009 team was the one he built all along and you know they won the title that year and had a mass exodus. Then went to an elite 8(?) going off memory here, the next year. So its not really apples to apples in our scenario. Plus Roys track record historically is quite good. Gotts, well……….
In theory a coach is building to something. Once he purges the players he did not recruit, he is dealing with what he recruited so he should be moving forward not regressing by year 5.
Then why did Roy go 5-11 in conference in year 9 or 10? There is no little/no team building in college basketball these days. The player turnover is so high that you have to be in constant reloading mode….where Gott failed miserably this year. (Don’t even start about recruiting more 4-year guys and coaching them up. That isn’t what Gott is doing and is probably not even something he can do.)
But what a coach IS building is his and the school’s brand and reputation. No one is concerned when Roy or K have an off year because of the confidence that they will reload and be as tough as ever next year. I’m not nearly as confident in Gott and I don’t know how he and State are viewed on the recruiting circuit.
I don’t follow recruiting closely, but I scan the recruiting thread on the monkey board and look at the individual and class rankings (which isn’t much, but all we have). If you look at Gott’s recruiting rankings they have been trending downward the last several years. With the exception of what most are considering a one and done PG, I don’t see any positive buzz indicating that State’s holes will be filled next year.
So I’m not worried about a down year. I’m worried that Gott is not going to be able to bring in enough good players to stop the bleeding after just one year.
There is no little/no team building in college basketball these days.
I still think there is. There are coaches that are program builders, and then those that are reloading nearly every year (UK, Kansas, Duke, UNC). We have to decide which we are going to be.
I mean, just taking a glance at the top 25 gives me a headache as I wonder why in the world we can’t do what these programs are doing. We’ve even beat several of these teams recently but look at where we are now compared to them. Just a few examples:
3. Iowa
5. Texas A&M
6. Villanova
7. Xavier
8. Maryland
9. West Virginia
10. Providence
11. Virginia
15. Miami
19. Indiana
21. Purdue
22. Wichita State
23. Oregon
25. Notre DameThere are coaches that are program builders
I’ll give you Tony Bennett at UVa, but I would have to look at multiple years before I would agree that the others are indeed building programs versus a one-year peak….I simply don’t follow much outside the ACC. Marshall and Witchita St are another example, but I discount accomplishments at the mid-major level.
Take Larranaga (who I have a great deal of respect for)…who has won the ACCT while at Miami. That’s great, but that was also the only year that Miami has went to the NCAAT while he’s been there. So at best, you could say that he is working at building a program; along with having another great year.
But even if I agree that some coaches can indeed build programs, is there anything in Gott’s resume to make you think that he can be one at NC State?
But even if I agree that some coaches can indeed build programs, is there anything in Gott’s resume to make you think that he can be one at NC State?
Not really, no. But I also don’t want to say it’s impossible.
It’s probably easier to just focus micro on the ACC.
Miami is indeed an interesting case study. Would love to hear more about how Larranaga has built that roster. I know the PG Rodriguez transferred from Kansas State, and he was pretty good there. They seem to have guys from all over the place.
UVa is a good study as well, but more than anything, Bennett is just coaching those guys up to buy into and play his system. Not knocking Gott but Bennett is a true teacher and his kids are getting it.
Brey at Notre Dame is definitely a program builder, and it appears sustainer. Jerian Grant was a supreme talent last year, but he was developed over four years. They are solid again this year.
Dixon at Pitt is also a program builder.
If this year turns out to be just a blip for Gott, then his results won’t be substantially different from Brey’s
In case the formatting jumbles to mush, I tried to copy/paste his record from wikipedia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Brey#Notre_Dame_Fighting_IrishNotre Dame Fighting Irish (Big East Conference) (2000–2013)
2000–01 Notre Dame 20–10 11–5 1st (West) NCAA Round of 32
2001–02 Notre Dame 22–11 10–6 2nd (West) NCAA Round of 32
2002–03 Notre Dame 24–10 10–6 T–3rd (West) NCAA Sweet Sixteen
2003–04 Notre Dame 19–13 9–7 7th NIT Quarterfinals
2004–05 Notre Dame 17–12 9–7 6th NIT First Round
2005–06 Notre Dame 16–14 6–10 T–11th NIT Second Round
2006–07 Notre Dame 24–8 11–5 4th NCAA Round of 64
2007–08 Notre Dame 25–8 14–4 T–2nd NCAA Round of 32
2008–09 Notre Dame 21–15 8–10 T–9th NIT Semifinals
2009–10 Notre Dame 23–12 10–8 T–7th NCAA Round of 64
2010–11 Notre Dame 27–7 14–4 2nd NCAA Round of 32
2011–12 Notre Dame 22–12 13–5 3rd NCAA Round of 64
2012–13 Notre Dame 25–10 11–7 T–5th NCAA Round of 64Notre Dame Fighting Irish (Atlantic Coast Conference) (2013–present)
2013–14 Notre Dame 15–17 6–12 T–12th
2014–15 Notre Dame 32–6 14–4 3rd NCAA Elite Eight
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