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The 83 team had its leading scorer back and a win over UNC with Jordan and looked pretty good. In other words, absolutely no comparison with this year’s team.
To beat State, hold Warren under 20 points and it’s all but guaranteed.
I like the potential for many of our young players, but we’re still a one-man team. That won’t get us to the NCAAT.
As for the NIT, I got a belly full of that during the HWSNBN years, when we actually made it that far. I’m with PapaWolf on this one.
I’ll betcha a buck right now…. that by the end of the season… this year’s team will be 30-50% better than they are right now.
I see no reason to expect the defense, rebounding, or free-throw shooting to substantially improve. So if there was a way to quantify 30% better, then I would take your bet.
All of that doesn’t mean that I want to be right…it’s just what I see.
Vawolf – you called our position on dance card perfectly. We won Saturday on dropped a spot due to fsu’s free fall.
Interested to see where dance card has us in next update.
I think we are on the cusp and we are definitely on the bubble.
Beat Pitt or UNC and go 10-8 in conference and I like our chances.
Its very volatile out there. We need to be pulling against Baylor, Oregon, Providence and Dayton. Pull hard for Every team we’ve played.
Based on what I’ve seen…we are much more likely to suffer a WTF? loss than a breakthrough win. But that’s why we play the games.
If the numbers say that we have no shot at pulling upsets, winning games, and getting to the dance, then let’s just save ourselves the trouble and heartbreak. Go ahead and forfeit the rest of the games and call it a season.
Yes, of course the games last longer than 3-5 minutes, that’s why we haven’t won more games. But good teams have those impressive short stretches more frequently than bad ones. That’s what we are working towards, that’s what my own two eyes see when I watch the team play. The reality is the team can and has get better at things as the year goes on. These kids have had three more months of practice than they had at the start of the season. I, for one, am confident in the difference making itself apparent in the win-loss column. That’s why I’m a fan. That’s why I watch the games, regardless of what the numbers say.
The “numbers” show what happened in the past. As anyone that bothers to look at the charts can see, today’s data point doesn’t necessarily predict what tomorrow’s will be. But rosy projections based on someone’s “eye test” aren’t convincing arguments that will lead me to ignore obvious deficiencies that repeatedly lead to blow-out losses.
As you point out, the team has gone through months of practice. But that fact was also true two weeks ago when they got blown out by UNC. It seems like other teams have had months of practice as well.
As BJD pointed out, they play the games for a reason. Just because I don’t expect State to win a particular game doesn’t mean that I don’t watch and pull for State. But I believe that honest conversation before/after a game should be…..well honest.
Also, alot of people seem to overlook the last half of the entry where I spent alot of time proving that teams below the bubble can still make the NCAAT. State did it 3 times (including the one illustrated in the article) during the Herb years.
Have to agree; NIT is a loser’s tournament; we play to get into the “Big Dance”, nothing less will appease.
VaHowler
Great to see the debate about the team. Great to have something to debate about. I wasn’t sure we would this year.
The ‘half full’ folks see a nine deep team (most in a long time) of talented youngsters (4 frosh, 2 rookies, 2 soph, 1 Australian) who are getting better and playing better than most expected this year. Nobody expected them to be a top tier team, we knew they would start slow and learn, and consistency (game to game, and within games) was going to be an issue. But they are a solid foundation for the future, and fun to watch. They see the UMD game w/o TJ as positive signs for next year. Discussing even the remote possiblity of making the tourney is an accomplishment.
The ‘half empty’ folks focus on the inconsistent, terrible play at times. (NC Central loss!!!) And the fact that we are not remotely able to compete with the top tier teams. They see TJ leaving as eliminating any chance of our being any good next year. And not being mentioned in the NCAAT discussion means failure.
I can see both opinions, but I agree with the ‘half full’ guys.
Last year’s SUPERSTAR team won 5 road games, two of which were on a neutral court in Puerto Rico. This year’s REBUILDING team has already won 4 true road games, and has a shot to win more. I really think that is a positive sign.
^As often as that quote was used by detractors of a former coach as an insult, it is not an inappropriate metaphor for the concept of building a winning team.
As for the “blowout” loss to Chapel Hill, I don’t see where that is proof of anything. (Last time I checked, we haven’t won at their place in more than a decade) Look at the effort in the second half. There are no such things as moral victories, but the point that I have been trying to make is about what the team is capable of. We played the second half at CH with the intensity and fire that was missing in the first half, we just let the hole get too deep in the first to overcome. I just don’t see how you can watch the second half of that game, or the first ten minutes of the Pitt game, and say we “can’t” win those kinds of games. We certainly can. Whether we will put it together for long enough stretches to beat the big boys remains to be seen, and I’m looking forward to watching.
UNC ran us off the court the first half. They didn’t have to play a second half to beat us – that is the point. Gott even said it was one of the worst first half performances he had ever seen from one of his teams. It is a 40 minute game – sometimes longer. You’ve got to put it together for 40+ against the better teams. We came out smoking against Pitt, then they pummeled us the rest of the way. We played a good game against Cincy, but hardly scored the last 8 or so minutes of the game. In stretches, yes, we look pretty good. The same can be said for other average teams.
The same can be said for other average teams.
And even bad teams. VT took Pitt to double OT. But I don’t think that anyone expects VT to suddenly make a bunch of noise the rest of the year.
… more fuel to the fire…
This year’s Team is an interesting mix of guys, some of whom need to learn how to do “less with more” and some others who need to learn how to do “more with less”…
Balancing that is a Coaching challenge if there ever was one.
Reviewing the ‘bad games’….
In November and December …
the ‘less with more’ guys did not show up… while the ‘more with less’ guys played better than expected…. all season.In January and February …
the ‘less with more’ guys brought too much to the game… esp. the one in Chapel Hill, while some of the ‘more with less’ guys have stepped up, others have more or less disappeared…In the ‘good games’ … everybody did their part… especially the last two.
So… what happens between now and the end of this season?
Nobody really knows.That said, my best thinking is …. the tracks are set.
The ‘less with more’ guys will continue to improve… and so will those ‘more with less’ who have been improving.
Those ‘more with less’ guys who have basically disappeared will not be heard from except on rare occasion.
All of which bodes very nicely for next season.
This season… the dance is well within our grasp.
—————–
Coach-ing v. Coach-ability….
Mental preparation, Court judgement and BB-IQ….
that’s what we’ve been talking about.#NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!I think that Da ‘*’ @ NC State on 2/26 is going to answer the remaining questions about this season.
^… yes it could…
Ya’ll just remember that Mr. Dog, without hesitation, predicted a double digit PACK victory… immediately after the fiasco in Orange County — Saturday before last…
And we can count on one hand the number of times… Mr. Dog is wrong.
#NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!I don’t understand the revisionist history that apparently college basketball rankings are based on. If you played a team when they were ranked #50, that’s the team you won or lost to. If 2 months later, they’ve improved and are #20… you still didn’t beat the 20th best team. Same goes the other way. If you win against a top 10 team – you should get credit for that. If they start to slide to the bottom of the top 25 – that doesn’t make your win any less tough when you played them.
I just think that all SOS should be based on what teams are ranked when you play them.
It’s dumb that FSU or Tenn. results have any effect on our ranking. We played them when we played them. Its done. If Tennessee had beat Florida, it would have had zero effect on our game back in mid-December.
This team is about where it should be with the talent we have in terms of record. The margins at Duke and UNCCH and against UVa are what really bother the half empty crowd.
The one thing I think might mean improvement going forward is that with RT playing better it allows Gott to play Lewis more and that reduces the live ball snow bird turnovers that you get from Cat. I’d like to see how the Cat Turner combo functions for extended stretches as well. I don’t think TJ is suddenly a 38% three point shooter. He will regress to the mean. Pitt is the best RPI boost we could reasonably get because it’s on the road. A bad loss before the ACCT wouldn’t shock me either. I don’t think we will make the dance but it wouldn’t take an outrageous scenario to get us in.
Matchups can be a HUGE problem for us. For example…we match up horribly with UNC and Duke (big, fast guards) and Syracuse and UVA (physical defensive teams). Pitt is kind of like that too, but with much less offensive skill. All of the “elite” teams in the league don’t offer us much by way of matchup openings.
We actually seemed to have regressed since the beginning of the year, when we played a top 20 team tough (Cincy). If we played Cincy, Mizz, Tennesse now recent evidence suggest we’d get blown out.
Kyle Washington has made the most progress of anyone on our team. Other than him, I can’t point to another player who has shown significant improvement.
^ I’d say the biggest match-up problem with Duke, UVA and ‘Cuse is the coaching.
Roy has sucked of late. He has tons of talent and I’ve seen better from him. He’s checked out the past few years. Aging has a way of doing that to some people.
NO WAY, do I think we have regressed. Of course I have watched for signs of improvement and may therefore see things that aren’t there but I don’t think so. I said the wake game could tell the tale. It sure looked like improvement. We have won 5 of the last 6.
And if you expect someone to go back to the mean, does that mean that players do not improve. That’s BS. You know they improve the most over the course of the season. But one game is not evidence of anything. I will say that Turner’s 3 point shooting did take a while to get going but I don’t expect him to go back to pre-conference averages. And TJ may be getting more comfortable from the 3. Confidence is everything. We’ve had a lot of practice against good zones since conference play began. I think we are getting better there as well although we are all afraid of how we will stack up against Cuse’s zone.
This game may also be an indicator of improvement. Can we not lose to a good team in the first 10 minutes, and make a run near the end?RPIs for a team change for two reasons, 1, it was way off in the beginning, example NCSU #1 in conf last year, 2, the team improved or regressed. There is no way to really know at the start of the season so the best analysis is the final RPI. But the selection committee should consider evidence such as a young team improving or a key player being lost (for win value, not if a team should qualify). I think the games at the end of the season say the most and should count the most. Let’s just keep playing strong. I think it’s great that we still have a chance. 5-2 we are in, 4-3 and we are bubbling up.
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