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Well that was a pretty miserable weekend of basketball. The only close game was Sunday’s Pitt/WF game with the Panthers falling to the Winston-Salem Curse…
[See the full post at: One More Week]“I just thought that State’s position [Dance Card] was surprising after that disaster on Saturday.”
Agree. I’m surprised to see that ‘100%’ there. State needs at least 1 of the next 2 to remain viable 🙁
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Let’s hope we make the point moot by beating Clemson Tuesday, but if Clemson do go 2-0 the only way I still see them truly getting at-large consideration is by them getting to the ACC finals.
It’s a pretty wild resume, but ultimately I think 4 RPI 100+ and 1 RPI 200+ loses spell doom barring something like the scenario above. There’s only one top 25 RPI win, and 3 total top 50 wins – one of which may not even make the tournament (Pitt). State could work their way back into the top 50, but that gets a lot more difficult if State loses to Clemson Tuesday night (irony). I think they’re toast, and I hope we get some revenge Tuesday night and remove all hope for them 🙂
At 42, and a life-long State Fan, I really thought I’d be use to what happened Saturday afternoon. I am not.
Palm’s Bubble Update on State and Pitt
State (On the fence)
Wolfpack fans have been getting on me for not taking this team off the bubble. Know why they can’t get off the bubble? They were 2-2 on the road in February. They beat Louisville and UNC and lost at Wake Forest and Boston College. You never know what you’re going to get from NC State. At 17-12, they aren’t out of the woods yet. Schedule — at Clemson, Syracuse
Pitt (work to do)
Pitt has good wins over North Carolina and Notre Dame, but they still don’t have a good record against better opposition. Now, the Panthers have added a bad loss at Wake Forest to go with losses to Hawaii and Virginia Tech. They really need a quality win away from home, but that will have to come in the conference tournament. Schedule — Miami, at Florida St
The Tigers don’t have a chance Tuesday night… relax…
That’s what I thought about Boston College ;__;
If I’ve learned one thing from Gott’s team, it is to never take anything for granted. We can beat anyone, but we can (and will) lose to anyone.
And let’s not trot out the BS V comparisons as excuses. V’s teams might have a WTF game, but I personally don’t remember them ever choking and simultaneously laying an egg like what we saw this past weekend. About the only way to play our way out of a bid was to take a bad loss, and we did it in convincing fashion.
Watch us lose to Clemson and then beat Syracuse. This is a frustrating program.
SFN are the ones in a bubble if think Pack can go 1-1 and make Dance….we lose to Clemson and we are NIT bound. No if, ands or buts about it. Only other chance is a run in the ACC tournament. Clemson is as “must win” as Pack has seen in many seasons. This will be a defining game for Gotts resume.
Interesting that Clemson’s Senior Day was Saturday against GT, not our game tomorrow night.
The ONLY saving grace for the BC loss is that it put us at a 10 right now. It could end up costing us a NCAA bid, which would obviously be bad, but IMO, a 10 is much better than a 9 or 8. With Gonzaga no longer a #1 seed option, and with Duke and UVA most likely being #1 seeds, with us at a 9 or 8 we would either get Kentucky or Villanova/Kansas in a possible 2nd round game. I’d take my chances with Nova, but I’d rather be a 10 seed and stay away from that.
The other side is that BC loss prevented us from getting a 7 (unless we make the ACCT finals). But honestly, 7/10, not much difference.
Indiana (7) vs NC State (10) seems a popular matchup right now.
I agree with SFN, go 1-1 and I think we are probably in. A L @Clemson isn’t a bad loss (like BC), but would mean it all comes down to the Syracuse game. A W at Clemson is a road win against a Top 100 RPI team.
^It happens when a conference is really strong.
Some 7-9 teams from the ACC of old have made it. V’s comment was always “7-7, go to heaven” (NCAAT), back when we played 14 ACC games.
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/ncaa-tournament/history/atlarge
Looks like we did it in 2005 under Herb.
The Tigers don’t have a chance Tuesday night… relax…
If there’s a way to lose, we’ll find it.
Two weeks ago, we had an interesting discussion about the advantages/disadvantages of using the RPI to pick and seed the field. This discussion also included the “benefits” of using margin of victory in picking which bubble teams make the NCAAT. Here’s something that ESPN put up Friday about evaluating BYU (before their win at Gonzaga).
In this case, the RPI’s blind spot — its ignorance of the final score — is actually kind of a strength. Yes, the Cougars’ eight losses have all come by eight points or fewer. Yes, two of their notable nonconference defeats went to overtime. But BYU still lost those games. They lost to San Diego and Pepperdine (twice). While most teams in this position could counteract the argument with at least one example of a quality win, the Cougars’ best three victories have all come at home — over Stanford, UMass and Saint Mary’s. There is maybe one tournament team in that mix, and that team (Stanford) is very much on the bubble.
The RPI is outdated, imprecise, too quietly impactful on the selection process, you name it. We tolerate it as a function of the Bubble Watch’s purpose; we rarely see its value. But in extreme situations, its inherent logic can hold true. At some point, you’ve got to beat somebody.
http://espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch
The URL makes me think that this will get over-written soon. Just in case that it does, I saved the entire (short) article.
We’ll be lucky to make the NCAA tourney, and even luckier if we actually win a game in it, no matter the seed. Doesn’t matter 8, 9, 10, whatever seed.
A small part of me hopes we get an 8/9 game in Kentucky’s bracket, and then somehow get lucky enough to play Calipari’s mercenaries. Not that I think we’d win, but I’d just like our team to have a chance to play the best team in the nation. Maybe they’d learn a thing or two.
Lunardi now has us as a #10 Seed playing #7 Ohio State with winner getting Arizona in Portland.
Last Four Byes
Oregon
Indiana
NC State
TempleLast Four In
Cincinnati
Colorado State
Purdue
BYUFirst Four Out
Davidson
UCLA
Illinois
PittsburghMaybe it’s my negative side talking, but I really dislike how avoiding the play-in games is now considered a bye/2nd round.
The youth league mentality run amok, IMHO.
I think we need to win at least 2 of next 3.
Our remaining 2 regular season games will both qualify as quality wins and neither (on paper) qualifies as a wtf loss.
If we go 1-1 we may need one more quality win. Like vawolf said, its not some random number we’re playing against its anyone who can’t afford to lose their next three games and anyone who can’t go to the tourney without winning theirs.
I’m fearing another egg is about to be laid down in Klempson. We don’t make anything easy so it just seems to perfect an opportunity to not let the Tigers kick our asses so we can turn around an face another orange team in what will be their final game together. This is what we do.
The “bye/2nd round” nomenclature actually dies after this season IIRC. plus For the rarest of rarities, common sense makes a COMEBACK. I doubt they will call it the “play-in” round, probably “preliminary” or something like that. But it will always be play-in to me, and shit, there’s no shame in that. You say you deserve a bid, go prove it in Dayton.
Win next 2, 90% in.
Win next 3 (ie, 1 in ACCT), 100% in.
Win 1 of next 2, plus 1 in ACCT, 50/50 (depends on who we play/beat).
Win 1 of next 2, plus 2 in ACCT, 100% in.
All of this would have been SO FUCKING SIMPLE had we just not shat all over the court in Boston. But that’s what we do in Boston, in all sports.
And forget about Nova/Kansas/AZ. If we are on the 8/9 line, we will get Kentucky. Period, full stop.
Selection sheets are updated: http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/MBB_RPI/MBBTeam.pdf
You can bookmark the page – it’s automatically updated. State is page 53. Strong, but dicey. Compared to other bubble teams, State has a ton of things going for it – but there are a lot of losses. The only ‘silver lining’ from the BC game is that it was only the 2nd rpi 100+ loss. Not affordable, but on par or better as compared to other bubble teams. That said, State’s overall schedule is incredibly strong.
Gotta keep winning. 14 losses is the absolute max to remain viable in any way. Please note that I said ‘viable’, not ‘lock’. The Espn Bubble Watch – by far the best ‘Watch’ page – should be updated soon. They will take State to task, as they should.
Maybe it’s my negative side talking, but I really dislike how avoiding the play-in games is now considered a bye/2nd round.
The youth league mentality run amok, IMHO.
^Haha yeah … I think that was the NCAA’s way of attempting to ‘appease’ 16-seed auto-qualifiers who get relegated to the ‘First Four’. It’s pretty weak. “You’re in the tournament!!”. I don’t have a problem w/ expanding the field (no more than 68, please!), but it is kind of a slap to the face of those low major auto-qualifiers. I’m sure they and the bubble teams wouldn’t have a problem with it being called what it is: play-in round. The round of 64 is still the ‘first round’ to me.
Win next 2, 90% in.
Win next 3 (ie, 1 in ACCT), 100% in.
Win 1 of next 2, plus 1 in ACCT, 50/50 (depends on who we play/beat).
Win 1 of next 2, plus 2 in ACCT, 100% in.
All of this would have been SO FUCKING SIMPLE had we just not shat all over the court in Boston. But that’s what we do in Boston, in all sports.
^Yes, yes, yes.
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