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You asked for it, and by you, I mean the voice in my head. Here’s how I have it broken down class-by-class. As usual, my percent error is roughly + or – 100%!
125
Sean Fausz (11-4) or Jamel Morris (7-1) vs. Nick Hermann (10-5) – Toss-up. The edge goes to Hermann against both Fausz and Morris, but Morris wrestled very well in Pittsburgh and Fausz has losses to David Terao (#8 from American) and Eddie Klimara (#5 from Oklahoma State in SV). Morris’ loss is Vito Pasone (16-8 record from Appalachian State). Hermann has lost to #1 Nathan Tomasello from Ohio State but the other four losses are to unranked opponents. Both Hermann and Fausz have wins over Brandon Jeske of Old Dominion.
133
Jamal Morris (9-2) vs. #6 George DiCamillo (21-3) – DiCamillo wins but Morris wins if he doesn’t give up a major, TF or pin. Jamal had a very strong four-match outing at Pitt last week with two pins, a tech fall, and a decision, but DiCamillo is a two-time conference champion and two-time NCAA qualifier. DiCamillo has a win over the only common opponent (Emilio Saavedra from Old Dominion); same opponent edged Morris 3-1 in dual competition.
141
#3 Kevin Jack (14-3) vs. Emilio Martinez (5-6) – Jack wins, even if Virginia goes crazy and bumps DiCamillo up a weight class, which they shouldn’t because it would be an easy six point swing in the Pack’s favor. Kevin Jack’s three losses are all to guys ranked in the top-20 and each loss was by two points or less.
149
Jake Deangelo (20-8) or Beau Donahue (7-7) or Sam Melikian (11-4) or Chandler Pyke (7-5) vs. Samuel Krivus (16-8) or Zach Watson (5-3) – Edge goes to State but it’s another toss-up category. Sam Melikian has wrestled well in his last tournament for State (though he wrestled unattached); Beau Donahue had a good showing in Pittsburgh and has lost 4 tough matches to ranked opponents.
157
#6 Thomas Gantt (14-0) vs. Andrew Atkinson (21-5) – Gantt wins but this will be a close match. Atkinson’s first two losses of the year were to ranked opponents (#12 Jake Ryan of Ohio State and #13 Dylan Cottrell of WVU). His last three losses were against decent but unranked competition, including a loss to The Asterisk’s 157 whom Chad Pyke beat soundly earlier in the year.
165
#4 Max Rohskopf (6-1) or Chad Pyke (15-3) vs. Garrett Peppelman (15-8) – If Max is healthy, the spot is his, and State wins definitively. If Pyke gets the nod, then a closer match, but still a lean toward State winning. Pyke has been very good recently (3 tech falls in his matches in Pittsburgh), and if Pop decides to bump everyone up, Pyke should still earn a decision in this match; 5 of Pyke’s wins are at 165, the others at 157.
174
Nicky Hall (9-5) or Stacy Davis (7-11) vs. Fox Baldwin (15-5) – Toss up. Nicky Hall would be a better match from State’s perspective as Stacy Davis is still growing as a college wrestler. Baldwin has some good
184
#16 Renda (17-3) vs. Tyler Askey (10-9) – Renda with the clear edge; all 3 losses are to ranked opponents by a combined 4 points plus wins over two ranked wrestlers. Last three matches for Renda have all ended in tech falls … 1st period tech falls. Baldwin scored a pin in his last match.
197
#17 Boykin (11-4) vs. #10 Zach Nye (20-5) – Nye wins; Common opponents Pfarr (Both lost), Hartmann (Both lost), Rotert (Nye win SV, Boykin got pinned). The key for Boykin is to attack Nye early to establish a lead. Boykin has a bad habit of holding serve (not giving up points) early in the match, but giving up points later in critical points. It happened again this past week when Connor Hartmann of Duke (#2 in the nation) was even with Boykin late into the first but got a scramble takedown as the period ended. Boykin chose down to start the 2nd and Hartmann never let him up, finishing with a 6-0 victory. Playing defense against good wrestlers will keep you in the match, but you need to score to win. Side note: the exact same scenario happened last year when Boykin faced Andrew Dixon of Oklahoma; Dixon took a 2-0 lead into the second. Boykin chose down, and Dixon turned him four times for an 11-0 major. For ranked wins, Nye has wins over Nathan Rotert (#13 South Dakota State) and Trent Noon (#20 Northern Colorado). Boykin has losses to Nathan Burak (#2 Iowa) and Rotert. Nye also has losses to Jake Smith (#7 WVU), Jared Naught (#8 Va Tech) and Reuben Franklin (#9 CSU Bakersfield).
HWT
Gwiz (20-0) vs. Patrick Gillen (16-8) – Gwiz wins. Why would you think otherwise?
State in dual matches is a perfect 16-0, which is a State record, and Virginia is only 4-2 with losses against Minnesota (who State beat convincingly) and Ohio State, both on the road.
Final analysis: I count five matches as firmly in State’s favor (141, 157, 165, 184, HWT) and two firmly for UVa (133 and 197) and three toss-ups. Look for bonus point wins at 141, 174 and HWT for State, which means either a major decision, tech fall or pin). UVa can definitely get bonus point wins at their two strong classes. Overall, State should win this match the toss-up matches will determine how much the score swings State’s way. UVa is good though, the defending ACC champs, but State has the home-mat advantage. Prediction: State 23-15.Just to give some updates, the dual team season has begun, and Va Tech opened their conference season with a win over UNX 27-13. State will be wrestling in Dorton this afternoon against UVa. Check out the preview I have above.
Pack slams the Hoos 35-7!
I was at the match today, and it was great! We took 6 members of my son’s high school team, and they participated in the free clinic from 11 to 12, and the match started at 1. Here are the scores that I jotted down in the order they wrestled:
285 Nick won by technical fall
125 Fausz won 8-4
133 Morris lost 2-17
141 Jack won 10-0
149 Donahue won 9-6
157 Gantt won 11-9
165 Rohskopf won by pin
174 Hall won by technical fall
184 Renda won by pin
197 Boykin lost 3-5Final score 35 – 7
Also had chance to meet all of the team after the match, and got an autographed poster by all of the team, and Coach Pop too. It was an awesome event to attend, and any of you Pack fans that live in the Raleigh area, I encourage you to be at the fairgrounds next Monday, January 25 at 7 pm to cheer on the Pack against the Holes. It was nice to get the opportunity to meet the team, and shake hands with Gwiz! Go Pack!Great stuff CoyoteJoe. I have been in the moving process for the last while and couldn’t live blog. Thanks for helping out!!
SaccoV, the pleasure is all mine! Glad I could lend a trifle to the thorough coverage that you provide. Again, it was so refreshing to meet the team, and experience first hand just how polite and respectful every member is, and the way they interacted with the small kids was great to see. I implore everyone, even if you are not into wrestling, to at least go experience this one time; you just might get hooked! (And its also free!)
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