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Good Friday fellow Wolfpackers! Tomorrow is game day and wouldn’t you know it, the #1 Florida State Seminoles are coming to Raleigh and the “House of
[See the full post at: NC State Wolfpack vs. #1 Florida State Seminoles]The two biggest problems are really one in the same “the inability by the front six to put pressure on the QB (hanging an average secondary out to dry) AND stopping teams on third down”. It seems we often put teams in 3rd and long, but the inability to pressure the QB allows them time to complete the 8-15 yarder for a 1st down. Of course, as seen in a reply to one of my posts, there may not be as many 3rd downs this game. I would also say that giving up the big play, specifically on the ground is one of our biggest problems. It seems our run defense will be looking good and then give up a 63 yarder. Here’s to better presure and limiting the big plays.
Jiggy, Thanks for the great job you always do.
“I think the biggest problems NC State has is its Defense… <snip> … AND stopping teams on third down (allowing opponents to continue a drive until they score).”
Jiggy, You saw this coming didn’t you? 😉 I share your concern that FSU might continue drives until they score, but frogs might grow wings and not bump their asses when they land. If we stop those drives, it wouldn’t be the first time NC State has stood up to the mighty FSU juggernaut and handed them a defeat.
The Noles still have to stop OUR running game and they still have to stop OUR short passing game and hope we don’t bite’em in the ass with a long pass while they are doing it. The injuries to some their starting DL might just make a difference.
That crazy, oblong ball can take some funny bounces. I’m thinking a good thought that it bounces our way. What the hell. Why not? NC State 17, FSU 16 — again.
Go Pack!
Despite all of the excellent reasons to fear this game, I’m excited.
I can’t delude myself into thinking we can beat these guys, these guys have ruled the recruiting world since Jimbo took over.
But after this game, we’re going to be able to look at the rest of the schedule and have a real idea of what to expect. Right now we really don’t know. And I still think we’ll get a bowl game. We’re great TV!Grey, that’s why it’s under the Prediction section and using a little thing I like to call Statistical Probability. I know it’s something crazy I cooked up on my own but basically what it says is this, If you continue to give a team an opportunity to score (4 more downs) then the chances said team will score Go Up!!! I know it’s just crazy talk and I simply pull this crap out of thin air but you know it seems to be a pretty good indicator over time no matter what it’s applied to.
For example, the lottery. Say you buy a lottery ticket, doesn’t mean you’re gonna win but there’s a chance. Now instead of just 1 lottery ticket you buy half the combinations of numbers. You still may not win the jackpot but your chances have increased in winning. You could win a little (FG), a lot (TD), or not at all.
Now I see with all the talk you made about NCSU’s offense we both predicted NC State would score 17. Seem’s I took this vaunted rushing attack and passing capability into account. Where you and I don’t see eye-to-eye is NC State’s defense. You apparently think NC State can hold FSU’s offense, which consist of a Heisman QB, a probable NFL WR next year, and who knows how many future NFL talent on that team to the same score as USF. I see NC State struggling on defense, based on it’s own production this season, to hold this same FSU offense to the score NC State allowed against ODU.
I would also say that giving up the big play, specifically on the ground is one of our biggest problems. It seems our run defense will be looking good and then give up a 63 yarder.
You have to go back to the first game to find a “big play” over 30 yds. on the ground. The good runs but hardly big plays of 63 yards vs ODU can be attributed to our legitimate concern for the passing ability of last year’s Walter Payton Award winner.
ODU
total rushing 196 yds
Long of 30 yds
average of 5.3USF
total rushing 70 yds
Long of 21PC
total rushing 122 yds
Long of 16If “giving up the big play, specifically on the ground is one of our biggest problems.” then we have less to worry about than I thought.
Jiggy,
If you did in deed use your Statistical Probability to predict this years game, I’m curious how your Statistical Probability predicted that NC State would only score 17 points. It’s way too complicated for me. Besides that I almost always lean towards the Pack in my wishful thinking.
I’m also interested in what your Statistical Probability had to say in 2012 about #3 FSU coming into The Carter and losing to unranked NC State, 17-16. I ask this to point to how vulnerable Statistical Probability is to predicting outcomes of college football games. I would trust your method in NFL games. As a matter of fact you may have something to sell to NFL, NHL, NBA and MLB teams. Statistical Probability is the hot trend in all those leagues.
As always it’s fun debating the stats game with you. Think a good thought about the Pack tomorrow. I know you hope I’m right. 😉
Graywolf, thanks for the correction. I guess somethings get implanted in my mind and it’s hard to correct the view. What is great about the facts you presented is that the length of the longest run decreased with each game. Dare we hope we hold FSU to a run of no longer than 15 yards?
I’m just looking for reasons to be optimistic the rest of the season. And I’m not sure anyone in conference is unbeatable by us (1 out 20 happens!). But FSU might be.
Maybe if they really are weaker on D, and we are as good on offense as my imagination lets me hope, we win 47-46. My lastest worthless prediction.You see that stupid NCSU crazy optimism creaping in just before game time don’t you, And Winston still has 23 more hours to screw up and get removed from the line up.
We will need a lot of luck. Our guys will need to play their absolute best. Few costly, stupid mistakes or penalties. We will need for Fla St to play down to us and make the mistakes we avoid…personal fouls, unsportsmanlike stuff. And we will need them to turn the ball over in both red zones…muffed punts and such. The stars need to line up. BUT, they have lined up for us before……
Ok…. as the only SFN ‘member’ with “dual citizenship” … let me say that I want to congratulate everybody for their maturity and restraint in this week’s game preparations… Nobody wants to get ‘too fired up’ for a game against the Number One team in the nation.
Now, let’s be clear… Nobody wants the Pack to Win tomorrow more than I… and if the Pack comes up a little short… I’ll just go back to pulling for my other school… to win another National Championship….
A couple of weeks ago… we’re were talking about the need for some ‘tack’ling fuel”… so I thought this might get it going…
Down in FLA … ole Bobby used to feed his boys this way… the night ‘fore the Big Game… Now, what’s good for ‘dem Noles might be good us Wolves… too…
And speaking of TAIL-GATEING….
Of course….. that ol’ GatorTail comes out tasting good and looking like this…
GO PACK!!!
#NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!Fortunately stats don’t win games, so let them pad the stat sheet, as long as the final score has the Wolfpack on top.
Correction from me. Stats don’t always win games. So if we can’t hang with FSU statically, wouldn’t matter, if we ended up scoring more points. I will take a win over the noles anyway we can get it.
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