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NC State currently sits at #50 in the RPI having played the 4th toughest schedule in America. State has won seven games against the Top 100 and 3 game
[See the full post at: NC State – Louisville Highlights]Yesterday was a good win and showed that this team CAN be a formidable opponent, even for good teams.
But until State can break into the 20-win column, the NCAAT will probably remain a dream.
One game at a time. The team has to play every game for their life, from beginning to end. We have proven we can compete with anyone at home, and one the road. But we can have no lapses from here on out. Then we will see where we sit. Hopefully sitting in the NCAA tourney. I figured we would beat UVA @ home, and lose to Louisville on the road, but it reversed itself, and we are on track to get there. 5 games remain, and if we go win them all, or perhaps lose 1, we should be safe.
IMO:
If we go 4-1 we are in. Assuming the loss would be @UNC, that would be 19-12 (10-8) with no bad losses against a top 10 SOS.
If we go 3-2 with one of the wins at UNC, we are also in. That would be 18-13 (9-9) against a top 10 SOS with 3 top 15 RPI wins, including 2 on the road.
I think both of those scenarios are possible, but perhaps not likely.
If we go 3-2 with a loss to UNC and win over VT (to avoid a very bad loss), I think we will likely be in even without an ACC tournament win, but 1 ACC tournament win would definitely clinch it.
If we go 2-3, or 3-2 with losses to UNC and VT (which would be the worst loss of the season by far), we probably have to win at least 1 in the ACC tournament, 2 would clinch it.
If we go 1-4 without beating UNC, we have to make it to the ACC tournament final to have a chance, and probably have to win it.
If we go 0-5, we have to win the ACC tournament.
FWIW, Dance Card currently has State with a 99.32% chance at a bid.
I’m not familiar with Dance Card but 99.32% chance? I thought I was an optimist but that’s ridiculous. It is not a sure thing by any means. We still have a lot of work to do. We have hope at least but no 99%+ guarantee.
^ IIRC, the dance card goes on a “if the season ended today” basis, not meant to be a prediction going forward, at least not until the last game is played prior to selection sunday. Their record at that point is pretty darned good.
ie, if we go on a losing streak, 99.32% will drop with each loss.
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