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Here are the stats and national rankings after the Presbyterian shut out at Carter-Finley. Before the stats, the latest on the National and ACC champi
[See the full post at: NC State Football By The Numbers – Post Presbyterian Edition]Turnovers Lost: 3 (3, 18)
Turnover Margin: 0.75 (3, 34)Punting
Wil Baumann: 11 punts, 50.2 avg, long of 67That’s good stuff right there.
3rd Down Pct Defense: 44.1% (11, 90)
4th Down Pct Defense: 62.5% (11, 79)This right here will cost State games.
Thanks for putting this together.
Tackles For Loss Allowed: 2.0 (1, 1)
Who are those uglies and what have you done with our OL?Bra’Lon Cherry: 1 fumble, 0 lost
Shadrach Thornton: 1 fumble, 0 lost
TEAM: 2 fumbles, 1 lost
Is there a typo here or is there something I don’t understand?Grey, I’m pretty sure they missed one of Cherry’s 2 fumbles on the punt returns in the USF game. If I recall correctly he fumbled it twice, the first he recovered the second he lost.
Jigs – good point on 3rd down numbers. Got to get off the field.
Impressive offensive #s…hopefully our o will hold up vs. Improved competition…. I hate we have the schedule we have. Our team will be exhausted once BC comes to town.
Red Zone Defense: 75.0% (6, 33)
Somebody explain to me, please, how Red Zone Defense is calculated, Presbyterian didn’t score so it can’t be based on scoring. I would have thought that the RZD would have been 100% since Presby didn’t score.
Cumulative stats for all games played.
Opp have been in the red zone 12 times and have scored 9 times (5TD/4FG).Red zone defense is the percentage the offense reaches the red zone (<= 20 yd line) and does NOT score.
If I remember correctly, PC reached the red zone only once and did not score, thus the NC State red zone defense for the PC game is 100%.
If PC had reached the red zone 4 times and scored (FG or TD) only once, the ‘Pack’s red zone defense would be 75% while PC’s red zone offense would be 25%.
Some use opponents’ RZ scores as the stat while other’s use RZ defense. Doeren uses the latter, which is why he said the RZ defense was 100%.
To clarify:
Some use the opponents’ RZ scoring percentage as the stat while other’s use the RZ defense percentage.
I, like Doeren, prefer the latter, because that metric directly measures YOUR success vs the inverse.
It’s the same measure though, just presented in inverse stats.
It’s essentially semantics, but I would want my players focused on a goal that measured their success vs their opponents failures.
It’s a perspective/philosophy thing.
I keep forgetting “NC State Football By The Numbers – Post (Last Opponent) Edition” is ALL the stats from every game. So unless I can remember all the stats from all the games, I might as well take WV Wolf’s word for the numbers OR go read another thread. 😉 Thanks again, WV Wolf, for doing what I sure as hell ain’t going to do.
Boys. A muffed punt is a team turnover.
Thanks Mr. DOG. (Why does say Jeff wrote?)I knew that a muffed punt wasn’t an individual fumble but didn’t realize it was called a TEAM Fumble.
So is the stat line: “TEAM: 2 fumbles, 1 lost” saying “2 muffed punts, 1 recovered by our TEAM and 1 by the opps TEAM”? Is the case of a ball bouncing into a blocker’s leg included in this stat? Makes sense that it isn’t an individual fumble since the individual didn’t have possession to fumble.
Kinda like an incomplete pass, eh? Bad stat but not attributed to the receiver in the box score but is to the passer. As it should be since the passer usually gets most of the credit, he should get the blame as well.
3rd Down Pct Defense: 44.1% (11, 90)
4th Down Pct Defense: 62.5% (11, 79)
This right here will cost State games.Jiggy, Maybe that should read, ‘could cost’ since we are 4-0. This is like 6 turnovers ‘could have cost’ MD the game (but it didn’t, MD won.) I say this because “Bend, not break” defense is some times a good strategy and is nearly always criticized by the fans as bad defense.
My mind slipped to the Presbyterian game. Not saying that’s what we were doing but it is possible since the coaches have been concerned about our giving up the big play. (see Doeren’s pressers) I grant that in most cases it is a stat of concern — but not always. Still good observation — one the coaches are sure to make as well.
Opp have been in the red zone 12 times and have scored 9 times (5TD/4FG).
Stat sounds like terrible defense until I figure out that the opps are averaging only 2.25 times into
the RZ per game. This is somewhat like a HS stat that measured how often I ALMOST got laid. Even now I almost get laid every day — almost on Monday, almost on Tuesday, almost every day. 😉Dem stats be fun stuff when I know WTF I’m reading.
Boys. A muffed punt is a team turnover.
Thanks,Dog…I thought that might be the case; since the receiver never had possession of the ball, it is not technically a his ‘fumble’, but is still a turnover.
As always, thanks for the stats. I appreciate the effort.
While some might argue that our level of competition tells us nothing, I wouldn’t agree. While the season starts on Saturday, and the numbers will start to skew greatly as competition picks up, I do spot some trends:
– Offense is about as good as it gets at NC State without an obvious NFL starting QB running the show.
– We’re not beating ourselves. We’ve got the penalties and turnovers down. We’re protecting the QB. We’re balanced on offense between running and passing, but also using all of our weapons.
– We have some depth that can play, at least on offense, given how the ball gets spread around. We have no depth at QB and need to protect Brissett.
– We’re spotty on defense. We don’t get off the field, don’t pressure the QB or make plays in the backfield and don’t force turnovers.I think we can get to 7-5, which was my goal for this team. The defense will prevent us from doing much more.
Right on, ryebread. Last year we were not particularly strong on defense and there was no QB to blame that on. We may be from a little to somewhat improved on defense with the base 4-2-5 and a few better athletes on the field. And I don’t want to sell the strength and conditioning short either. The proof of the pudding is as always in the eating. Let’s hope we have something on the menu for FSU to chew on.
Defenses are traditionally behind offensive trends which partially explains why “the next hot offensive scheme” works so well. Ask The Hat about that. The offense that was so hot at his last stop has been somewhat caught up with. Too bad for eweNC that they caught him on the top of that curve and hopefully heading down, not on the way up. That may be wishful thinking on my part but so what.
This notion that defenses catch up with offenses, if true, gives me hope for the Pack. Apparently our coaches are creating on the fly with the Wildcat or Wildwolf as I prefer to call it. I see that as an omen that we won’t be stuck with an offense that we have to fire the HC or his OC to fix. IMO that’s what happened to TOB and Bible.
The big question in my mind is can Doeren and Hux (or whoever) keep abreast of the offensive trends and make the necessary adjustments?
Stat sounds like terrible defense until I figure out that the opps are averaging only 2.25 times into
the RZ per game. This is somewhat like a HS stat that measured how often I ALMOST got laid. Even now I almost get laid every day — almost on Monday, almost on Tuesday, almost every day.
Dem stats be fun stuff when I know WTF I’m reading.
Yep, it’s one of those where ya gotta look at the numbers and get the complete story. Tulane is now ranked better than NCSU (#12 nationally) in redzone defense at .652. But they’ve allowed 23 redzone visits giving up 15 scores, 12 of which were TDs.
Which given your metaphor, I guess that kinda makes them sluts.
Jiggy, Maybe that should read, ‘could cost’ since we are 4-0. This is like 6 turnovers ‘could have cost’ MD the game (but it didn’t, MD won.) I say this because “Bend, not break” defense is some times a good strategy and is nearly always criticized by the fans as bad defense.
Grey, buddy, come on now, you have to know I’m referring to this stat in the future sense. If State continues to give up percentages like that against better competition it’s going to come back and bite them in the ass. Can they continue giving up 3rd and 4th downs at that rate and still win a game? Sure, they’ve done it already 3 times this season. I didn’t say it would cost them every game, I said it will cost them games. Bend but don’t break may be applied at times so you don’t get beat deep but do you really believe that’s a continuous strategy just to keep from showing their playbook to future opponents? You don’t have to gamble on every down in order to get your defense off the field as quickly as possible. These numbers show a deep flaw in the defense and will be exploited by better teams then State has played this season, it almost was already…twice.
GSU 3DC = 6-14 (43%) / 4DC = 0-1
ODU 3DC = 10-18 (56%) / 4DC = 5-6 (83%)
USF 3DC = 2-10 (20%) / 4DC = 0-0
PCU 3DC = 8-17 (47%) / 4DC = 0-1It’s not an anamoly of allowing the opposition to continue to move the chains. I’m sure there are several reasons why State is continuing to allow teams to complete third downs. I’ll have a breakdown of the 3rd and 4th down efficiencies that’ll give more insight in the FSU preview.
^ Lack of overall speed and experience in the secondary. There’s a coach’s emphasis not to give explosive’ plays. Keep the opponent in front of you and make the tackle. Back 7 can tighten up with less ground to cover once inside the 20.
Early failure of this likely caused some reassessments of general tactics, at least while their getting a lil seasoning.
So I assume it’s by design, as a function of scheme and/or consideration of personnel. Most likely more latter than former.
Have been exceptions, of course, like when the Pack brought in the safeties for run support and rolled up the corners for man (vs GSU).
Schedule Strength
Past Opposition: 4-2 .667 (5, 27)27th hardest schedule in the country to date? I know it only factors what has happened so far and can be skewed, but perhaps our OCC schedule isn’t as bad as perceived. Or maybe it is… I’m not really sure how this stat is calculated.
Grey, buddy, come on now, you have to know I’m referring to this stat in the future sense. If State continues to give up percentages like that against better competition it’s going to come back and bite them in the ass.
Jiggy, For sure I know you were speaking of future games. I was pointing out that in 4 previous games the very statistics you were referring to had NOT cost us one single game. I them went on to say why I disagreed with you under some circumstances.
Isolating a statistic and foreseeing the future based on that stat is a dangerous game. While we were giving up 1st downs on 3rd and 4th down, we were allowing only 2.25 trips into the RZ. We were also rotating fresh linemen and Linebackers, keeping our best defenders fresh and reasonably rested. foose does a thorough job above explaining the how’s and why’s of the bend, don’t break defense. It’s worth reading.
At the risk of repeating myself I’m saying again, “Bend, not break” defense is some times a good strategy and is nearly always criticized by the fans as bad defense. I don’t know anybody who would not take a game against FSU that did not allow a long TD, only 2.25 trips into the RZ and whatever our RZ success rate is. True FSU is the number 1 rated team in the country. They were highly rated the last 2 times they visited The Carter and left without a win.
Anything is possible playing with that oblong, crazy bouncing ball. Now, think a good thought.
but perhaps our OCC schedule isn’t as bad as perceived. Or maybe it is… I’m not really sure how this stat is calculated.
I’m willing to bet that it is every bit as bad as most think. Let’s look at Sagarin’s rankings for another clue:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/2014/conference/
SOS National Ranking #178.
SOS ranked 13th out of the 14 teams in the ACC.But it’s important to note that SOS means little in college football as a whole and absolutely nothing to NC State.
^ VaWolf – No doubt our sos is bad; just pointing out that maybe not quite as bad as it looked on paper a couple months ago. Either way you’re right, sos doesn’t mean anything to NC State other than artificially feeling marginally better about what you’ve accomplished.
The only thing that matters now is the next 8 (hopefully 9) games. Particularly the next 4, a win or two may indicate that this a better team than most probably thought. Conversely, I don’t think much can be determined at all if we lose all of the next 4 – except maybe in how we lose them.
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