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Here are the stats and national rankings after the Syracuse win at the Carrier Dome and the bye week. Before the stats, the latest on the National and
[See the full post at: NC State Football By The Numbers – Post ‘Cuse Edition]Jaylen Samuels: 7 att, 95 yds, 13.6 avg, 1 TD
I’m just going to go out on a limb here and say Samuels needs the ball more.
^Yes, please.
Based on stats, team strengths appear to be discipline (penalties, turnovers) and special teams. 3rd down conversion on offense continues to outperform the rest of the offense. Red zone defense continues to outperform the rest of the defense.
Quick question. How is our team punting this:
Punting: 40.36 (3, 16)
and Will Baumann have these stats:
Wil Baumann: 42 punts, 46.5 avg, long of 67
I don’t remember anyone else punting.
Fewest Penalty Yards Per Game: 42.33 (4, 2)
This seems strange to me. How can we be 4th in ACC when there’s only one better nationally? Is that a mistype? Should it have been 4, 12?
WV Wolf – I fixed the typo, thanks
I’m just going to go out on a limb here and say Samuels needs the ball more.
He IS a load when he has the ball! I suspect that the only way Samuels could get many more touches would be to move him to RB and give him Creecy’s. Part of his success can be attributed to the infrequency with which we use him. DC’s are charting our tendencies and aren’t ready for Samuels. That fake punt is good for about once a year. 😉
I do wish we could chart something like a “moving” average. Maybe what have we done in our last 4 games. Highs and lows would eventually move off the chart.
This is a team filled with FR, RSFR, So’s and RSSo. Players are playing now that weren’t on the field the first of the season. Our base defense in now in and we are stunting off it. Just as our Offense is not the offense that built good stats that don’t reflect how we are playing now, our defense is not the defense that abused by GSU, ODU and others.
Not complaining about the work that WV Wolf does. To the contrary I appreciate what he does. I just wish there was a way to get a picture of where we are now with what we have.
^Any particular stats you have in mind for trending? I can put this together (and I have a little time), just will take longer if the answer is “everything”.
“Any particular stats you have in mind for trending?”
ncsu1987, Thanks for the offer. I’ve listed some stats that I have rearranged for comparative reasons. Some of these that would make sense to track trending might be useful.
WV Wolf, if you are reading this, the groupings of Offense/Defense and the Sacks, TFL’s and TO’s +/- would IMO be useful in evaluating the stats.
Scoring
Offense: 28.7 (9, 70)
Defense: 27.6 (13, 75)
Total
Offense: 395.2 (10, 70)
Defense: 389.1 (11, 63)
Rushing
Offense: 174.1 (6, 55)
Defense: 171.1 (11, 73)
Passing
Offense: 221.1 (8, 75)
Defense: 218.0 (8, 50)3rd Down
Offence: 43.4% (5, 39)
Defense: 50.4% (14, 121)
4th Down
Offense: 44.4% (11, 78)
Defense: 50.0% (8, 57)
Red Zone
Offense: 85.3% (7, 47)
Defense: 77.4% (6, 32)Sacks vs. Sacks Allowed
Tackles For Loss vs. TFL’s allowed
Turnovers: Take-a-ways vs. Give-a-waysI’m just going to go out on a limb here and say Samuels needs the ball more.
I agree, a little more at least, but his rushes are situational and thus, the avg ypr are somewhat inflated if you are trying to project results with more rushes. A diminishing returns thing.
Here’s a first stab at something relatively easy to maintain:
Is this useful? Note: this preserves the order in WV’s weekly posts.
Very good! I like what you have done!
Just wondering, could you put in GT’s current ranking. That might be fun to see compared to our ranking.
Before I make another request, how easy/difficult would it be to use conference rankings? [You can see where this is heading, can’t you?] 😉
Thanks for your work!!
Our offense is clearly going down the crapper… The next 3,games should tell us if its just because we’ve played 4 pretty good d’s or if we are just bad offensively.
Grey: using either national or conf rankings (or both) is equally easy. Adding GT’s current ranking would be very easy, but trying to reconstruct GT’s historical rankings would require additional research.
Ask away (just to be sure I see where this is heading…)
Oh, and BTW, just to be clear, after re-reading your original request, you actually asked for a moving average. What I’ve charted is the raw data. If there’s need for an actual moving average, I can do that, but it will have to post as a separate chart. The sparkline charts are so small that in my experience if you try to overlay them, they quickly become unusable.
Let me know.
the groupings of Offense/Defense and the Sacks, TFL’s and TO’s +/- would IMO be useful in evaluating the stats.
Scoring
Offense: 28.7 (9, 70)
Defense: 27.6 (13, 75)I like having the top level stats (rushing, passing, total, scoring) all together for one unit. Any mismatch in these stats shows that deeper evaluation is required. For instance, an offense that has trouble in the red zone would have a higher ranking in total offense versus scoring offense. You could then check the redzone (and maybe third down stats) to confirm your initial thoughts.
I don’t see the value in comparing State’s offense to State’s defense in any particular category. Note that I’m not arguing, I just don’t see how you intend to use these comparisons.
I maintain the offense has gone south because our QB has lost confidence in the offensive line, and the offensive line has done everything they can to deserve it.
Note that I’m not arguing, I just don’t see how you intend to use these comparisons.
I’m an older guy as you likely know and remember the days when good and I mean really good football teams would or could go undefeated averaging say 20 points a game. These days a team averaging 20 ppg might have trouble winning a game. [see NCState] 😉
I was thinking how a team did relative to itself might be more important than how a team did relative to a national average. [see Duke and Pitt Sat.]After I rearranged the stats and looked at them I saw how I could quickly check how a team did relative itself very quickly and only the total scoring made any real difference.
You could say that my even looking was a compliment to WV Wolf for producing the stats as I had never cared how we ranked nationally before. I still think how we rank in the conference would be more useful than how we rank nationally.
The only stat I would argue for is the Take-a-ways vs. Give-a-ways as this stat seems one of the most important — kind of like the +/- in hockey.
Speaking of hockey “How ’bout dem Canes!” Saw them Sunday and will see them Friday and of course watched Saturday and last night. If there ever was an argument for “team effort” IMNSHO the Canes are it. With everyone buying in, they are hard to beat. Without all out team effort, they can’t win a game.
Maybe the Pack is that way.
after re-reading your original request, you actually asked for a moving average.
After further consideration I wonder how much moving average in our football schedule would be useful. Too much difference in relative strength of our opponents. Moving averages of something like golf or work units produced would or could measure current skill level whereas averages would tend to hide significant improvement especially as the totals got higher. Moving averages in free-throw shooting would be a better indicator of current skill than averages.
Also some of my answer to VaWolf82 above might be interesting to you regarding this same conversation.
Thanks to both you and VaWolf82. This conversation is a whole lot more fun than some of the pissing contests I’ve gotten in. 😉
The only stat I would argue for is the Take-a-ways vs. Give-a-ways as this stat seems one of the most important — kind of like the +/- in hockey.
Or you could use “Turnover Margin” which is already calculated and listed.
But I’m glad that you brought this up. Occasionally you can find teams where the scoring offense is ranked much higher than the total offense. TO Margin is the first place that I look to see where the points are coming from.
Several years ago, UNC had an offense that was constantly being fed by opponent’s turnovers. But when they ran up against Russell Wilson, the turnovers weren’t there and State beat UNC handily.
Conference versus national rankings is an interesting discussion. You could argue this one in circles for days. The biggest fallacy with either ranking is that the OOC games vary greatly in difficulty and thus can easily skew the predictive value of either ranking. Since State’s OOC schedule was so weak, it was easy to see that State’s ranking would be artificially inflated. Thus we cycle back to my “average” offense ranking being too generous.
In the days of acceptable conference sizes (12 teams or less), you could go to websites that ranked the various stats based only on conference games. If proper adjustment was made for teams played, you could get a better idea of where State stood in the conference. But no more. So the difference between conference or national stats is not worth arguing about. But even if you care deeply about one over the other, WV lists both for us.
ncsu1987: Great job. A larger view of this, with a larger trend line graph would be fantastic.
Grey: I’m one of the ones who requested national numbers. My argument is this — are the conference stats skewed because the conference is collectively good or bad at something?
For example, let’s say we have 3-4 NFL quality QBs in the league. That has happened in the past and will happen again. Maybe we have one as well, but he’s the 4th or 5th best QB in the league. He might still be in the top 15 or so nationally. Compared against the ACC QBs, that might not look good, but the national view helps us appreciate what we have.
This also allows one to better understand the macro level offense and defensive stats. Let’s say that State is giving up 23 points per game and the conference average is 24 PPG given up. Those points per game are heavily skewed by facing ACC offenses. Are those offenses just all bad? Are we abnormally good at something like take aways that keeps points off the board? The national numbers give us something to compare too that isn’t as highly influenced by our control (ACC competition).
This is also good to help one spot the mid-major effect. A strong mid-major might roll up in conference, but then when the out of conference games are factored in, the numbers dip considerably. Or, simply put, the numbers just aren’t that impressive outside of that team’s control.
I look for outliers — things where our performance looks okay in conference but great nationally, or vice versa. Those are better indicators (to me) of things that we do well or are poor at.
Attendance
Total: 270,779 (4, 33)
Average: 54,156 (5, 37)
Pct Capacity: 94.05% (3, 39)Given the product on display on the field, I dare say we’ve heard the last grumblings from the coaching staff regarding fan support ????
Given the product on display on the field, I dare say we’ve heard the last grumblings from the coaching staff regarding fan support ????
Good lord that one comment has been blown out of proportion.
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