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Here are the stats and national rankings after the Clemson debacle. Before the stats, the latest on the National and ACC championship belts. National
[See the full post at: NC State Football By The Numbers – Post Clemson Edition]I know we’re in a “rebuilding phase”, but just how bad is it when your team MVP one year is your Placekicker, and the next year it’s your Punter ???
That’s no criticism of Sade and Baumann, God bless ’em !!! Just shows the sorry state of the program at this point.
While some have been fighting the obvious conclusions for the last month, the numbers are settling down and confirming what I thought during the preseason games….State has an average offense and a bad defense. (Note that without greatly improved QB play, State would end up with virtually the exact same results as last year.)
To win, State has to hold onto the ball and hopefully win in a track-meet style game. The defense is so poor, that it is not likely that State can overcome a rash of turnovers in any one game.
There are many posts on the coaching staff and their abilities. In other words, is a good staff trying to overcome a talent deficit or is a mediocre staff just flailing around. In the end, it doesn’t matter which view is correct.
It is not enough just to maximize the results with poor talent. The coaches job is to win…with improving talent being the obvious first step. In the end, you are what your record says you are and that’s the proper way to judge a coaching staff at the 4-5 year point (excluding extenuating circumstances).
I disagree, VAW82, I think the offense is better than average. Great young corp of receivers. Experienced RB’s. Best OL in a while. They just ran into a great defense and let FSU beat them twice.
Now as far as the defense I couldn’t agree more. I knew this season would hinge on the D. I could tell this from the spring game. Nobody thought we would beat FSU or Clemson. Not like these were “expected” wins to start the season. Yes one of the two games was crap. Just like one of the two games was a great effort. The first four games didn’t tell us much if anything. I am not prepared to say the season is lost. People act like this was unexpected. I don’t think you are saying that either but it sure smells of doom.
Like others have said the season really starts this Saturday with regards is this program improving? Sports are a bottom line business. Win or lose(within reason) is all that matters. We cannot accept moral victories in most of the remaining games but if they lose more than they win it doesn’t mean progress hasn’t been made. Rarely do teams turn around a 3-9 season to a 8-4 hell even 7-5 is tough. I think we have two more wins somewhere. I think that’s a realistic goal. Also a sign of some improvement even if two thirds of the wins came against cupcakes.
^”average”
I think it depends on what is meant by “average”. If you mean we have an offense that is better on average than NC State teams the past 5 years, I may agree with you in a game or two. If you mean we have a better than average offense than the average among all schools this year, not sure I see data to support that.
I will say the offense is significantly better than last year, and I’m not sure the defense is any worse than last year. Taken alone (which is always dangerous) these observations suggest that we’ll perform better than last year, which was my goal for the season (represented by 2-3 conference wins)
The team is considerably ahead of schedule on offense, and roughly on schedule on defense, based on what I’d hoped to see from the players and staff. Gotta work on that “awe” aspect of traveling to play with the big boys. At FSU last year and at CU this year, just looked like deer in the headlights. Disappointing, but not entirely unexpected.
Looking forward to a good showing at home against BC. Hoping for a win, think we’re capable, but still not expecting it.
I think all of our “is we is / is we ain’t” any good analysis has been premature.
The OOC games should have been wins, and they were. We saw the Offence improve over the four games, and we saw the defense we expected. Pretty weak.
FSU & CU are established successful programs with well entrenched coaching/recruiting staffs and years of quality recruiting classes. FSU won it all last year, CU won the Orange Bowl. These are great college teams who can compete with anyone. They are who we aspire to be in a few years.
We knew they were going to beat us, and we expected to be thrashed.HOWEVER, this game is the real ‘state of the program’ game IMO. This is a home game against a beatable team. If we don’t win this, then we know we haven’t progressed as much as we’d hoped and we need to recalibrate expectations.
I based my comment of “average offense” on the fact that State’s offensive stats are generally at or above the midpoint in the conference and national rankings. “Average” may have been a little harsh…but I haven’t gotten over the Clemson game yet.
“Scoring Offense: 33.7 (6, 51)
Total Offense: 447.3 (4, 44)”
Correct me if I’m wrong but aren’t there 14 teams in our conference and 125+/- in the FBS? Let’s not make it worse than it is, okay? We are above average in offense according to the numbers. This is a significant improvement over last year. Go ahead, let’s hear the “yes, but’s” if you have to make State worse than it is.“Scoring Defense: 28.5 (13, 83)
Total Defense: 396.2 (13, 68)”
We are not good, not even close to being good. IOW we are bad. I’d like to think we are struggling. Unfortunately there is no one player like QB that can turn the defense around. No scheme makes offenses beatable. About all I know of that makes any real difference is an infusion of players who are, to use an old cliché, agile, mobile and hostile.IMO About the best we can hope for is that the defense is not really this bad but has been “struggling” and will find itself in the next few games.
That’s no criticism of Sade and Baumann, God bless ‘em !!!
Baumann has really upped his game this season. If he continues, he won’t have to worry about attending job fairs after graduation.
I disagree, VAW82, I think the offense is better than average.
I agree, but it hasn’t proven it yet. Time will tell.
We are above average in offense according to the numbers.
Oh BS!
To most people, “average” would cover a range of values around the mathematical mean. An above average offense doesn’t get shut out by a team with two losses.
Go ahead, let’s hear the “yes, but’s” if you have to make State worse than it is.
The next time you accuse me of twisting the facts, you better have proof or the entire post will be deleted. You conveniently left out the sentence where I said that “average” MIGHT be a little harsh.
Anyone that has been here any amount of time should know that I strive for accuracy and try to have support for any conclusions that I reach. Corrections are always welcome since I have never claimed to be perfect.
Sorry to disagree VAW but Clemson IMO is the best 2 loss team in the country since they lost on opening day to a top notch team from the SEC and to the #1 team in the country. That is not a typical two loss team. There were just too many variables in that game for us. Spent emotions, early two score deficit, A QB that is on fire (BTW, had he been starting from day one Clemson very likely is undefeated right now and ranked in the top 5). Lots of things went into that loss that are above and beyond categorizing our offense as average. Ask Jimbo if he considers us average. Ultimately what put us in a really bad situation is our defense is pitiful, and Clemson has some monsters on their defense.
it would be my guess that at least 90% of the time or higher no matter what the level of competition in football an outstanding defense trumps outstanding offense. The champions have both most of the time. Why is that? Because the offense has to score, the defense can not only prevent the offense from scoring but can also score within that process. I give you Beasely taking the ball right out of Brisett’s hand and toting it to the end zone. I cannot recall any championship team in the NFL or college that did not have a top notch defense and i’ve been watching both for over half a century. If any have won a championship without their defense ranking near the top then it’s an anomaly, and anomalies rarely occur in championships. The supposed underdog does win, but it’s my assertion that statistically those teams that float to the top usually do so on the backs of the defense. The underdog does not get into the championship game on the backs of those on only one side of the ball.
Smarter than the average bear
The next time you accuse me of twisting the facts, you better have proof or the entire post will be deleted.
To say I accused you of “twisting the facts” is false. The facts are the facts — nothing to twist. I openly admit to disagreeing with your interpretation of the facts. I tend to “get after” what I consider unwarranted devaluing of the Pack’s (and Doeren’s) efforts.
I based my comment of “average offense” on the fact that State’s offensive stats are generally at or above the midpoint in the conference and national rankings. “Average” may have been a little harsh…but I haven’t gotten over the Clemson game yet.
Unfortunately this comment was posted WHILE I was composing my comment. My comments were based on my opinion that you WERE a little harsh in your judgment that the Pack is “average” on offense. Having admitted that yourself, I would have cut you a lot of slack and would not have accused you of doing what you had admitted to. It is also unfortunate, and I wasn’t clear about this, the “Go ahead, let’s hear the “yes, but’s” if you have to make State worse than it is.” comment was pointed to OT13, PackAlum44 and a few others from another board who I co-mingle with SFN in my mind who seem to enjoy dissing the Pack. In re-reading it I can see how that comment would piss you off and I sincerely apologize for my carelessness in not being clear about to whom I was referring. IOW the “let’s hear the “yes, but’s” was a future comments reference, not your current comments. Damned sloppy of me, I’d say.
You explain your majority interpretation of “average” in another post. I’m a “literal” or “exact” kind of guy and if 7, for example, is average then to me any thing ‘south’ of seven is below average while anything above seven is above average. And I admittedly am biased when it comes to Wolfpack football.
VaWolf82, while I doubt you or anyone else will read this long-winded ramble, I do apologize. I also say that threatening to delete posts that conflict with your point of view, doesn’t fit my pictures of you. Delete me or not but threatening someone to be careful responding to you IMO reflects poorly on you. I hope that comment doesn’t get me deleted. 😉
I also say that threatening to delete posts that conflict with your point of view, doesn’t fit my pictures of you.
Once again, not what I said.
Once again, not what I said.
Once again, twisting facts was not what I did, either. IMO “Twisting facts” was a strawman used in our disagreement.
An above average offense doesn’t get shut out by a team with two losses.
That’s a rather dumb, general, blanket statement.
Creating a false axiom that can easily be discredited as evidence to support a subjective opinion coming from someone posturing themselves as the voice of reason, truth, and virtuous posts is quite comical.
That’s a rather dumb, general, blanket statement.
Creating a false axiom that can easily be discredited as evidence to support a subjective opinion coming from someone posturing themselves as the voice of reason, truth, and virtuous posts is quite comical.Strong message to follow!
I’ve been watching NC State football for 30 years. By watching I mean consistently following the program, attending games, watching the games on TV, reading the box scores, etc..
Our offense this year is slightly above average for NC State. As a program though, we’ve been typically above average on the offensive side of the ball relative to peers. Outside of a couple of years with Chuck where we had some great defense and a few stinker years under TOB (and last season), we’ve always had better offense than defense. The OL has played quite well (Clemson game was the first bad one) as has Brissett. We put up 40+ on FSU and we have outscored opponents in 4 other games. I’ll take it.
Our defense is below average by NC State standards over the past 30 years. We’re not a defense first program like VT, but this one is still in the bottom 5-10 defenses that I can remember since watching. Archer had a couple like this, Chuck had one (River’s senior year), Mike O’Cain blessed us with a few and last year was bad. This one is down there. It’s in the bottom of the conference with UNC, Wake and I suspect Duke and Syracuse. We can’t get off the field and don’t generate any pressure. Our best hope is that the other team gives us the ball.
Our special teams have been well above average. I’ve been on Sade for missing a couple of FGs early, but he’s solid and his kick offs are great. The punting has been NFL quality. Coverage has been quite good outside of one kick against USF.
We’re also well above average with respect to penalties. This season is better than any time under Chuck, TOB and any time that I can remember under MOC. That’s a sign of coaching to me. Keep it up fellas!
We’re headed in the right direction. Our stats are skewed by playing against the two best offenses and defenses in the ACC in our first two conference games. We’d look much better had we played WF and Syracuse. We’re not quite at the place we want to be, nor are we getting there quickly enough, but the ship is definitely turning.
I made a cursory glance at which FBS schools have been shut out so far this season.
Week 1 – Southern Miss, Southern Methodist
Week 2 – Eastern Michigan, Florida Atlantic, Michigan
Week 3 – Army, Kent State, Louisiana Monroe
Week 4 – Troy
Week 5 – Southern Methodist, Kansas
Week 6 – NCSUThere are 128 FBS schools so that means there are roughly 60 games each week so roughly 3%-4% of all the games played have resulted in an FBS team being shutout. That’s not good company to be in. I’m not trying to kick dirt on the program, just throwing some numbers out there to show how rare it is for an FBS school to go an entire game without scoring any points.
I made a cursory glance at which FBS schools have been shut out so far this season.
Week 1 – Southern Miss, Southern Methodist<br>
Week 2 – Eastern Michigan, Florida Atlantic, Michigan<br>
Week 3 – Army, Kent State, Louisiana Monroe<br>
Week 4 – Troy<br>
Week 5 – Southern Methodist, Kansas<br>
Week 6 – NCSUThere are 128 FBS schools so that means there are roughly 60 games each week so roughly 3%-4% of all the games played have resulted in an FBS team being shutout. That’s not good company to be in. I’m not trying to kick dirt on the program, just throwing some numbers out there to show how rare it is for an FBS school to go an entire game without scoring any points.
“An above average offense doesn’t get shut out by a team with two losses.”
It might be worthwhile to see how many teams have put up 41 points on the #1 team in the country. I do know that is hard to do with an “average” offense.
It might be worthwhile to see how many teams have put up 41 points on the #1 team in the country. I do know that is hard to do with an “average” offense.
It’s a lot harder to put up 41 points on the #1 team in the country than it is to get shut out by one of the best defenses in the country.
I wonder how these teams who have not been shut out would do 2 weeks in a row verses Florida State and Clemson?
BC has a really good defense. This should be a great barometer of where exactly our offense sits relative to “average”.
As an aside, this is a huge weekend for recruits attending, so I hope the crowd shows up in full voice, and our team makes a good showing on the field.
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