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In the latest update on the ACC, we’ll highlight what’s going on in the middle of the conference…otherwise known as the “mess in the middle”.
[See the full post at: Mess in the Middle]Don’t look now, but there’s also a mess, a big hot mess, and the very bottom.
[edit]. Oops. I guess I should’ve said there’s one behind this keyboard. So this is actually a basketball post, not a football one. Got it.
^Ummmm. What? [edit] What??
Awesome post! Would love to see what we would look like if the WFU game were a win… But in the end it doesn’t matter. Either we’ll ultimately become an NCAAT worthy team or we won’t. We have got to make some hay in the upcoming home games. Our February schedule is brutal. Hard to see this team entering the ACCT on the ‘goodish’ side of the bubble.
Great analysis. This is an example where pictures are worth 1000 words. This is particularly true of the trending as well as the conference break down. Keep it up!
Five things that jump out at me:
– The Wake Forest and Central losses are going to come back and haunt us. A couple of more points here or there and the season looks much different.
– We played almost no real non-conference team.
– We’ve played 3 of the top 5 in the ACC and been manhandled. There’s a gap there. Maybe it isn’t 40 points but it’s a gap and a noticeable gap between the NCAA locks.
– I have never seen the league weaker. It started in the non-conference scheduling. Look at the starting points for most of our teams.
– That top group is missing UNC, NC State and Louisville. I expect the group that is there right now will be there in the next 3-5 years (barring a coaching change/retirement). Those are solid programs on stable ground with good coaching. Louisville will immediately join that group. UNC is having a speed bump kind of year, but this could be more of the norm with the ongoing scrutiny. There’s some uncertainty there. For us, I am curious to see whether this is a speed bump or indicative. I think we’re the biggest wild card.we’re no wild card. we are an after thought. we haven’t won the conference in over 20 years.
I agree, the Central loss and the WFU loss are gonna hurt if we start to play a little better. The Mizzou game hurts too(although it might not hurt our RPI as much) just b/c we gave that one away. Its interesting our RPI is as high as it is. I thought we were done for sure, but we still have a fighters chance. I dont expect us to make the tourney, but its nice for the season not to be over just yet.
I am also content to have the season not to be over, as I was 99% sure when I went to bed at halftime of the MD game. Win the next two, and I will feel decent about at least making the NIT.
For those thinking brackets, I offer Creighton as a national sleeper. They absolutely destroyed #4 Villanova, on the road. With like 10 minutes left to play, the Jays were up 37!
I guess part of our upward rise beyond beating MD is that the three teams that stomped us are all on the rise. If we beat FSU we may see the peak of our rise. Unless we keep winning against the bottom and middle.
If we beat GT and FSU, we rise to the top of Slim Chance and maybe to Maybe. But how can we advance from there or stay there. Win at Miami,home WF, at Clemson, at VT, UNC home, Miami Home, BC home. In other words, if we win all but at UNC, Cuse, at Pitt we go 11-7 and have a chance to make it. 10-8 might make it but…. And nothing less will.
Creighton and Wichita State are killing it.
I just want to see some good steady improvement. NCAA talk is way too premature. A long way to go just for consideration.
Pleasantly surprised by the MD win as I called it off as well. Long day for me.
“Mess in the Middle” ???
I thought this thread was about how our kids run their zone offense.
!Joke!
#NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!I don’t think we should concern ourselves with the so-called mess in the middle.
We’re basically beneath that.
Based on where we are now, I think a record of 10-8 would give us an RPI better than 50 (we would have gone 8-4 against decent competition.)
Even if we are 9-9 I suspect we enter the account tourney solidly on the bubble with a likelihood of getting in if we win 2 games against OK competition…. translation: if we win 9 games in our next 13-14 we go dancing because our RPI should be low 50s high 40s.
packbackr04: I do see your point, but I would argue that NC State *should* be in that top group based on the program metrics, revenue, money spent, year over year recruiting haul, TV exposure, etc..
Anything less is really not acceptable. Everything is needed to win consistently with the right coach.
I’m not saying national titles. I am not even saying conference titles. I do think being in the upper third and a year over year virtual lock should be doable given the landscape of college basketball today.
Thanks for another interesting post. State is going to the big dance so sit back and enjoy the ride in the Cat bird / WBS seat.
This is why I don’t usually do “subtle”…your carefully planned joke falls flat.
Which one of these is not like the others?
i hear ya Rye, and agree totally with your sentiment. State should be performing well above where we have for a number of years and it really is inexcusable. Heres hoping we can find our way into being in the top third of the league perennially
We just need to beat GT right now. We can take on all comers as the season progresses. Lots of work to do if we are going to the Dance, but it starts with winning the next game. The graphs are some good stuff. I hope we can all be pleased by some upward trajectory.
I was just glad to find out the “Mess in the Middle” didn’t refer to our combo package of bigs “Vandwagon, Freeman, Washington, Anya”, who I have found to be refreshingly better than I hoped they would be.
Good post. My personal feeling is that the NIT is the ceiling for this year’s squad (I hope not, but I’m also trying to be realistic). February is a pretty brutal stretch, and we’re at 2-4 with 12 games left. Best projection near as I can figure is 7-5 the rest of the way. That puts them at 9-9 and probably needing to make the ACC tournament final at least to have a puncher’s chance at getting into the NCAA (probably as a 9-13 seed if we do).
Winning against the Terps without Buckets? That was a good sign. The bad signs: this team is still young, still gets too careless with the ball, and doesn’t seem to move well enough in the half-court on either offense or defense. I hope that’s a downward trend.
ILpackfan – to give you an idea our 12 game schedule breaks down as follows:
3 opponents with NCAA qualifying rpis
4 games vs bubble teams (2 UNC, 1 wake, 1 @ Clemson
5 games vs no chance teams (2 Miami, at vatech, gstech and BC)The worst we could do from an rpi standpoint and from a quality of victories standpoint would be to beat the bubble teams @ home and sweep the bums…..even if we did that I think we would still have a decent RPI and I think 2 tourney wins would put us right on that bubble
We probably won’t get a chance to test that theory.
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