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Well we’ve reached the end of the regular season and this will be our last bubble/conference update of the year. Doing these weekly updates has skew
[See the full post at: Last Look at the Bubble]The acc tournament is our last hope. To have a shot at an at-large bid we will have to advance to sunday…and will probably need to have beaten duke on Saturday to get there…so the odds are indeed very slim
The odds are clearly extremely slim. But with Warren, anything is possible. We’ve shown we can play with anyone in the league (sans UVA – but I am sure we can play with the Hoos). However, we can also lose to anyone. We are not consistent. Going to be interesting, hopefully.
A lot of people draw more from a close loss than I do. Three losses to RPI 100+ teams deserve at least as much attention when evaluating State.
I don’t think Pitt slips lower than that unless they lose on Friday (which they easily could)…at which point they likely go to Dayton.
FSU, State, Clemson, and Maryland all likely get in if they make the finals. But as VA noted, that’s unlikely enough not to devote much brainpower to analyzing.
And The Dance Card has 15 teams ahead of us, including FSU. Going to have to make a big run and hope all the favorites win.
That’s a fuckton of teams to jump, but I think all those resumes are fairly close. Adding Syracuse and Duke wins to State’s resume would still set us apart, methinks.
Just FYI, Lunardi currently has Pitt in as a 10 seed.
Without the Dance Card, I would have to wonder if that was an honest evaluation or based on everyone’s opinion from a month ago. (Which is what I meant when I said that math has no memory.) Personally, I would put Pitt at a 11 or 12 seed…but it’s all just guesses until the conference tourneys finish.
Half Empty
ACC top tier loses to lower tier teams, “top tier sucks”ACC middle tier loses to top tier and some lower tier – “middle tier sucks”
ACC lower tier sucks by definition
Half Full
ACC is better than people think (we’ll see in postseason)ACC middle tier loses to top tier and some lower tier – “middle tier sucks”
You left out the middle tier’s poor performance against quality OOC opponents.
The “middle tier sucks” is not “half-full”, it’s just a realistic assessment.
“Personally, I would put Pitt at a 11 or 12 seed…”
^Agree. I think their miracle at Clemson helped them more than most people realize. Lose that one, and Pitt is more than iffy.
Lose on Thursday to Wake or ND and it is really dicey.
First of all thanks to VaWolf for a season of sobering looks at the ACC.
The main thing that has killed the ACC the past few years is our crappy performance outside the league. It used to be that the entire conference would roll up wins outside the league which would give everyone’s RPI a boost.
I have to say I’m impressed that Gott continues to schedule aggressively. When your SOS number is in the 20’s you don’t have to apologize to anybody for your schedule.
One win is easy to see happening. Two wins is certainly possible, but I don’t think anybody is wiring money to Vegas to get down on us to make the semi-finals. Three wins and we are approaching CC Harrison territory.
I hate to say this, but poor officiating might cost us a bid. Put Warren on the line at Syracuse for an and-one, and give UNC the foul against Warren in Raleigh, we’re probably dancing.
Yes, we could conceivably have pulled out both of those games, but damn, it’s been heartbreaking to see a team with lesser talent play its heart out against heavily favored opponents and be in a position to win only to have the curse that is ACC officiating cost the team chances to close out those wins.
The worst part of it is that the conference will never, ever admit they’ve got a problem. People say that expansion hurt the conference, but I think that in reality, the blatant favoritism hurts even more. Gone is the ACC identity of “anyone can beat anyone” — it’s nigh on impossible to pull out close wins when the officials are favoring the top teams when it matters the most.
Gone is the ACC identity of “anyone can beat anyone”
Yes… this has been true for the last too many years for too many good reasons….
But… “Expansion” doesn’t on it own exacerbate that; expansion restores that … especially when that “one day soon” — the day they have the big retirement party comes.
And we can see it coming…
The Orange was the “best team” in the conference until we played them up there… look at their record since..
#NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!Alpha,
I hate to say this as well.
The year may have been boogered by 3 costly passes in the closing seconds of 2 games.Every coach’s nightmare is to see the ball go to the sideline in the midst of the trap.
A pass to Lee and to Barber v.’Cuse, and to Warren v.***
Just sayin’. Jane and Dan need not debate it.
Gone is the ACC identity of “anyone can beat anyone”
Really? Just because it didn’t happen for the Pack (at least not yet) doesn’t mean it didn’t happen for others. It did. See:
Wake over Duke
ND over Duke
Clemson over Duke
BC over Cuse
GT over Cuse
Maryland over UVA
Wake over UNC
Miami over UNC^Thanks for doing the homework there Wufpack
And Things will be even more interesting next year….
when ‘DaVille gets added to the mix…It’s GOTT to be all good for the PACK…
because you play to the level of your competition unless you have %$#*&ies (insert p-word here if you like) leading your program…
and that it is clearly no longer the case in Raleigh.
————
Mr. Dog…
what you said… or5 more rebounds…
5 more free throws…
5 less turnovers…in a half a dozen games this season.
#NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!^
Fo’eva in Raleigh. That’s the way it had to be.
That’s the way the peeps at State mean it to be.Blackballed…Means blackballed.
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