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Nail head, meet hammer. Nice way to wrap up each position there, Beej. There’s a reason you write sometimes-profane and always gloriously-frustrating RIVEBROGS and I do not.
^Great post, BJD. Agree 100%. If we get Graham and everyone stays healthy (and no one else departs for some reason), this team should compete for 4th place in the conference. I doubt they’ll make it, but they should be in the hunt.
ppf, you forgot Notre Dame. Otherwise, your list looks pretty good, though I don’t think FSU or Clemson has a realistic shot at #4.
Oof! Good catch, Tau. I would drop Notre Dame behind Wake and GT, TBH. I don’t necessarily believe that FSU or Clemson will end up in 4th, but I see that as their upper limit. Those teams are much better defensively than a good half of the conference. They’ll probably get shelled by the top three teams, but I could see them holding serve well enough against teams not named Duke, *NX or Louisville to finish there..with some help, of course.
If they do sneak up there, watch out, because they’ll flame out SPECTACULARLY in the postseason.
In order to save time and keyboard wear, I suggest we go full on Prince and refer to TAFMKAWBS as a symbol. Perhaps ø would be suitable, but I’m open to suggestions.
I am not trying to be the “negative nancy” nor am I trying to make anyone mad. And I certainly hope I am wrong but…
PG – myabe we will be better but we are assuming the guy TL beat out for the starting position will have a “break out” year. He has to for us to finish in the top half of the league. He has the potential and he biggest jumpfor a player is usually fresh to soph year so maybe this happens. Again I hope so.
SG- dead cat bounce. This was not a strong position for us. Turner played pretty good towards the end but BJD is right it was either offense or defense from this position.Lacey seems like he will be solid but we said similar things about Lee last year.
SF- huge drop off both offensively and defensively. Buckets did so many things besides score. He was also a great rebounder. I think we will be lucky if Turner averages more than 10 points a game.
PF – Who knows. Any points from this position was a bonus this year but is a must next year. The high post requires skilled big men who can make things happen. Wash and Frenchie have that potentia but they will have to improve immensely.
C – This could be a strong point for us but if the guards cannot feed them then it is irrelevant and we have no one returning who has proven they can feed the post (a lost art in basketball).
IMO the precedent for improvement of individual players is much better than the precedent of playing good defense.
If I had to put percentages (pure unadulterated guess as that is what we are all doing)
30% chance we are worse than this year
50% chance we are about the same
20% chance we are better.Rick, I don’t see your comments as negative or pessimistic at all. Rather than endless rants about how bad we will be and how the program is going down the drain, you laid out logically what most of us are thinking. Personally, I feel we will do pretty well, but we could also go into the tank for the reasons you mentioned. So much is riding on Cat’s shoulders. I’m probably stating the obvious, but if he doesn’t have a breakout year we could be in a lot of trouble.
Rick, I don’t see your comments as negative or pessimistic at all. Rather than endless rants about how bad we will be and how the program is going down the drain, you laid out logically what most of us are thinking. Personally, I feel we will do pretty well, but we could also go into the tank for the reasons you mentioned. So much is riding on Cat’s shoulders. I’m probably stating the obvious, but if he doesn’t have a breakout year we could be in a lot of trouble.
Here is what I think has to happen for a good year, in order from most important
1) Lacey has to avg 14 plus ppg and shot 36% or better from three
2) Cat has to have that break out year. 10 ppg and 4 apg 1 to and he has to feed the post properly.
3) KH has to lose weight or Abu comes in as a monster
4) The team/coach figure out how important defense is
5) Wash or frenchie learn how to run the high post
6) Turner avg 10 ppg and 5 rpg and shoot 34% or better from threeCat was way better at the end of the year than he was at the beginning of the year. By the end of the year, his assist rate was nearly equal to Tyler’s, and he had a lower turnover %. Even if he just maintains his play from the end of the season we have an opportunity to be good. That doesn’t even account for the vast improvement he is on defense compared to Tyler.
Also, Warren, while he got a lot of steals, wasn’t really very good on defense. He had good anticipation, but basically no ability to play positional defense. He caught out of a stance, flat footed, more times than I can count. His scoring will be tough to replace. His defense…not so much.
Also, Warren, while he got a lot of steals, wasn’t really very good on defense. He had good anticipation, but basically no ability to play positional defense. He caught out of a stance, flat footed, more times than I can count. His scoring will be tough to replace. His defense…not so much.
IMO you are wrong about Bucket’s defense. Nonetheless there is no way Turner will be better defensively.
For the most part we are all on the same wavelength. Rick down a standard deviation and BJD up one where I tend to hang out. We expect the truth will be somewhere between and pray we don’t go south a couple deviations – like what happened to Notre Dame this year.
A few things that need to happen and all of which would send us higher than expected: Cat getting it done, Anya losing weight and becoming a monster inside (and Abu a solid back up), the Martins being big contributors, Turner able to knock down threes with ease (3+ a game to take his average to 13 ppg (my prediction)). And Lacey also averaging 14+
Rick, I can dig your layout. I think it’s just a case where you’re usually way more cautious than I am when it comes to prognosticating.
I have a stronger gut feeling that we’ll fall into a higher tier than your percentages suggest. Of course, it is just that: a gut feeling. After seeing how much better TJW and Vandy looked physically this year versus last, I have a lot of faith that Anya will be in better shape. IIRC, he was in even worse shape when he first came into the program. It is only one thing on a long list of things for us to have a positive season, but I think his transformation will pay big time dividends.
State averaged 71.1 ppg in 2013-14. I could easily see this team averaging 75+ per game. With so much depth, there are a lot of ways to get there, but here is one that is reasonable IMO:
12 Cat
12 Lacey
12 Turner
8 Anya
8 Washington
6 Abu
6 Freeman
5 Lee
5 Martin twins
2 Graham
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76If you prefer Cat 10, Lacey 14, fine, but it doesn’t change the total.
I don’t think any of those projected averages are unreasonable… and there is still upside in those projections. For example, that shows just 28 ppg collectively from the 4 bigs, while not showing unrealistic ppg for any of the guards/wings.
Is it really so unreasonable to add 4 more points in there to get up to 80 ppg, for example?
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>pakfanistan wrote:</div>
Also, Warren, while he got a lot of steals, wasn’t really very good on defense. He had good anticipation, but basically no ability to play positional defense. He caught out of a stance, flat footed, more times than I can count. His scoring will be tough to replace. His defense…not so much.IMO you are wrong about Bucket’s defense. Nonetheless there is no way Turner will be better defensively.
Oh, no way Turner is going to be an improvement defensively. He was atrocious last year. Lacey might be though.
Here’s video of the problems TJ had on defense.
Unfortunately it wouldn’t keep the time, skip to 8:45.
While my percentages are a bit different that Rick’s, it’s a reasonable breakdown. I agree this is a “high variance” year that could go a whole lot of different ways. Just going to be so different in terms of roster construction.
I think Washington could/should be able to run the high post sets. We shall see.
I don’t think BSW will ever be more than a “passable” defender, but he had no shot to be even that as a 2. It was the defensive equivalent of how the offense looked when we had to play Gavin Grant at PG.
KH’s skill set is quite diverse. That will make us difficult to handle in the half court, at least more so than last season.
We need Lacy to be a slasher/scorer and to be a credible secondary 3-point threat. 100% agree with Rick on the importance of that.
IMO you are wrong about Bucket’s defense.
Really???
watch this and then tell me WHO gotten taken to the goal…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qkUyoq9asaI
TJ was average, at best on D.
Even he would admit as much.
🙂
It was the defensive equivalent of how the offense looked when we had to play Gavin Grant at PG.
I’m having Vietnam-level flashbacks. F**k off with that Beej.
Next year is all about the sophomore bigs.
Can they rebound?
Can they score?
Can anybody get them the ball?
Can one of them become Howell/Painter good at the mid range jumper?I think the guard play will be adequate. The big improvement next year will be that we won’t have to rely on FOUR freshmen.
Packfan,
Thanks for finding that video. It was fun to watch. I had such a bad taste in my mouth from the last game it was great to remember the good things did.
I still think he was a good defender.Unfortunately Lacey won’t add much defensively. He’s a decent offensive player, but he’s not overly athletic and has average foot speed at best. In fairness it’s been a while since I’ve seen him play, so maybe he’s gotten better.
Team could have a very powerful interior game with a super athletic Abu joining Freeman, Anya, and Washington. Barber learned much and is no longer a deer in the headlights. Lacey is a very good player and a natural SG. Lee will be improved, and Turner even more comfortable…
Overall team chemistry should be very, very good. Depth very good, and team should be able to play very aggressively.Usually a huge difference between freshmen and sophomores…This team may potentially be beastly and very, very good; or just ‘good’.
The ability to play defense on the perimeter may determine where we finish as our size inside will force teams to the perimeter.
I feel like a finish around 4th or 5th is definitely do-able if the team finds rhythm offensively.I think next year is the barometer on Gott. Either we learn to play defense, or we have four data points that say we’re never going to.
Most “experts” will say a player makes the most improvement between the freshman and sophomore years. While I dont have bundles of stats and information to support, I tend to agree. IF this is the case, expect big jumps from Cat, Frenchie, KH, and KW. Even looking back at the past season, those 4 were vastly improved from start to finish, and we can expect an equal improvement over the summer into next fall.
Cat had improved decision making, developed some confidence in the J, and was already a check down defender. If I were an opposing PG, I would not want Cat guarding me all night.
Frenchie came in as a 17 year old boy and left an 18 year old man. His confidence grew and his aggressiveness went through the roof the last part of the year. He’s got the body and look for big things with the confidence and aggressiveness factor multipled even more for next year.
KH – continune losing the weight – he was already a force to be reckoned with but give him some stamina and a little lighter afoot and he will be scary good.
KW – see Frenchie above. He was not afraid to take the big shot and will only get better. Big body and he was somewhat passive early, maybe because he earned Howell’s no touch fouls early. As the season progressed, he was also more aggressive (going to get called anyway, might as well make them worth the whistle) and this is a positive moving forward.
Des – while not a sophomore, he is entering his 2nd year in the program and expect vast improvement here as well. He actually developed his 3 pt shot late and has good D capability. For a long time he was our best defender and the guy we would put on their best player. This will also improve.
Expect big things from all these guys and while we will miss TJ, the more we played as a team last year the more effective we were. We will have to play as a team next year, and if so, we will be dancing again.
Dez, Cat, Turner, and Lacey are all decent (above 70%) free throw shooters. Our bigs need to improve dramatically next year in that area. They are going to be more involved in the offense, and will get to the line more. Last year these four were 104 / 227, or a horrific 46%. That group needs to collectively be 65% at a minimum, or it will cost us some winnable close games.
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