Football Schedule Analysis

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  • #105551
    McCallum
    Participant

    I agree with that but I expect that most teams have better coaches than State.

    When was the last time any of you stood back and said “that is a really well coached team”?

    It starts at the top and the top has sucked the big one for a very long time. Truth be known, they can suck because they DO UNDERSTAND the loyalty of the fan base (largely alumni)and that State folks aren’t going anywhere. They will show up and nod approval expecting good things when the twerps at the top are satisfied to just roll out something because ANYTHING will appease the base.

    McCallum

    #105552
    YogiNC
    Participant

    I’ve been thinking about what I read here as expectations of DD and the State program in general. By comparison I’d like to present the case of David Cutcliffe. He took over a program in not much worse shape than O’Brien left us with. It has taken him a long time to just achieve a small measure of success. He faces the same problem we do in recruiting and lack of success over the past 40 years or so. And quite honestly neither Duke nor NC State can claim any measure of sustained success over that time span. Matter of fact before FSU came into the ACC it had been many many years since any program in the conference had any great success in football other than Clemson in 1981 and that was surely tainted by bending or flat out ignoring the rules (not to the measure that UNX has but they weren’t exactly sparkily clean).

    Now Cut is a pretty darned good coach I’m sure most would agree. The point I’m trying to make is this, changing our football paradigm is like turning an air craft carrier. Even if that sucker is doing 10 knots (which is about half speed) it can take 30 miles to turn it around. Throw in bad weather and headwinds and that figure goes up. If you take into consideration the past 4 years vs. the past 40 I’d say DD is only about 20 degrees of that 180 degree turn. There have been lots of people at the helm for those 40 years and very few have turned the ship around.

    For some perspective look at Alabama between 1979 and 2009. They did win one national championship in 92 but they also went through some bleak times by their standards. And it ain’t like they didn’t have the money to hire a great coach OR recruits to beat the band. By the same token look at South Carolina, their last two coaches won NCs AND one of them had a measure of success at State and the other at Duke and yet they were anything but stellar there. For all who are ready to string DD up and cut him lose tell me one thing, WHO are you gonna get to replace him? My bet is IF you could afford Saban and could talk him into leaving Alabama he’d still have 27 miles to turn that ship around. Momentum is a fickle mistress.

    Smarter than the average bear

    #105553
    Rick
    Keymaster

    For all who are ready to string DD up and cut him lose tell me one thing, WHO are you gonna get to replace him?

    I have no opinion on DD but this is an extremely weak argument. I have always hated it.

    #105556
    YogiNC
    Participant

    It wasn’t mean to be an argument but a valid question. There came a point where most agreed CTC had to go, in comes O’Brien, then TOB had to go. From my perspective DD is better than TOB. But then that’s just my perspective. But no matter how you look at it, over the last 40 years, no matter what the sport, we have had very little in terms of flashes of brilliance. Even Jimmy V had a ceiling. They nickle and dime’d Sloan, Lou bolted. Sheridan was pretty good but not outstanding. They let Tanner bolt for USC where he won a NC. College athletics (as well as all sports) is a battlefield strewn with carcasses of coaches, some of them legends.

    So the question is, who do you hire? It’s one thing to fuss about what you got but when the rubber meets the road it’s who do you replace them with (I found out the hard way this can be especially true with wives)?

    Smarter than the average bear

    #105557
    TheAliasTroll
    Participant

    I’d say DD is only about 20 degrees of that 180 degree turn

    I don’t see any evidence DD has made any degrees of this supposed 180 turn? Hell we might soon find out we’ve actually started turning the other way (i.e. getting worse!)

    For all who are ready to string DD up and cut him lose tell me one thing, WHO are you gonna get to replace him?

    Someone else. I agree with Rick here, I remember this argument being used with Sidney Lowe too.

    #105558
    ryebread
    Participant

    Some quick thoughts, not necessarily laid out in any sort of argument:
    – McCallum and others raise some good points regarding talent. On some level, we’re not going to be better until we recruit better players. Seems simple enough, but I’m not sure that we’re fully committed at an institutional level to do that (nor do I think we should be). Hugh Freeze made big noise with recruiting at Ole Miss (how does little old Ole Miss suddenly recruit so well?), but now we’re seeing why. It’s hard to have top 25 expectations without top 25 level recruiting and I just don’t see what is coming to change that (with DD at the helm or otherwise). We weren’t willing to cut those corners a few years back for Calipari and that was only a handful of players. Are we really going to do it for football at a level needed to get us over the top? I don’t really think so.

    – It’s not just the talent level, but the depth and age of the players (physical maturity) hasn’t been good. WF showed that using the redshirting and player development model they could catch lightning in a bottle and win the league. I hate to say it, but that’s the goal for our football program — trying to incrementally improve and get things lined up for one great season. I do think DD gets this aspect and has been redshirting heavily. I think he said he’s only playing 4 freshman this year. Our last coach ran so many kids off (or just had recruiting misses), that we were constantly playing young kids.

    – Cutcliffe is a good and veteran coach. People want to compare DD to Cut and I just don’t see it that way. It’s like every coaching defender in basketball wanting to compare a coach to K in order to “give them time” and previously everyone wanted to compare all the football coaches to Beamer. I see DD as much more like Clawson at WF. Objectively, do you give Clawson unlimited time? Should Duke have given Roof, Franks or any of those other coaches unlimited time? Had they done that, would they have Cutcliffe? Nope. At a certain point, you give the guy enough time to see what they’ve got, and if they don’t have it you move them on. The clock’s ticking from the second the hire is made, but that’s also true of ANY highly visible and highly paid job.

    – We need to understand our spot in the pecking order of major college football. NC State is a middling Power 5 position in a basketball league that is going to pay near the bottom of the league. We’re historically a .500 program. Does the history dictate the future? Nope. It does suggest though that there are significant challenges to this job, and a long history of people that could do no better than mediocre. If we expect top 25 results, we need to have the “inputs” to generate a top 25 program — budgets, recruiting, facilities, a willingness to color between the lines, a willingness to go heavily JUCO, a massive PR campaign, etc.. If one goes to Tennessee, Texas, Michigan, Penn State, Florida, etc., you can see the differences in culture, budgets, etc. needed to play at the big level. NC State just isn’t it in football.

    – In basketball, we have top 25 inputs. That’s where we should focus our resources and scrutiny before we squander away those top 25 inputs. This football thing (for NC State) should merely be a fall tailgating distraction until the round ball comes out. When we whine about football, it just drowns the legitimate complaints out in a sea of noise from “the lunatic fringe.”

    – NC State fans are our own worst enemies. We sell out football every year regardless of the product put on the field. If we’re NOT willing at an institutional level to do the things needed to make a winner (and I’m not saying we should), then the W/L record isn’t all that important. Selling the stadium out and turning a profit is, which our fans allow us to blindly do every year. What’s the incentive to really change things? What’s the incentive to pay more $$$ for a big name coach (particularly if that coach might ask for some institutional advantages)? The answer is none. The only thing that would change that is an impact to the bottom line, and I don’t see that coming given we just sold out yet again for a team that has a high water mark for preseason predictions at 7-5.

    – The best plan for NC State football is a “system” coach. We need some mad scientist approach running a wacky system with different formations, look, tempo, etc., or some weird defense. There has to be some things that we do really uniquely and well that would make us hard to prepare for in a short week. It probably wouldn’t work well in bowl games, but it at least might get us up to the point where we could pick up some transcendent talents (like PR or RW) that could allow us to catch lightning in the bottle for a year. Here’s to hoping Drinkwitz is that because what I’ve seen thus far out of DD is a plodding, midwest approach that is much better suited to Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, etc.. I just don’t think that’s how one is going to win here.

    #105559
    mak4dpak
    Participant

    We have our first game this week. No stories leading up to our opener?

    #105560
    YogiNC
    Participant

    TAT, 20 degrees of a 180 is almost impossible to discern, especially with storms, huge breakers and a headwind. If winning was easy anyone could do it. That was the point I was trying to make.

    Even the best of the top programs can’t master it on a continuing basis. Even the legends of coaching succumb to it most of the time. It happened to Bear Bryant, Bowden, Spurrier, Holtz, et al. The list goes on forever. BUT, some programs never make it out of their glass ceiling. Wake happened to get lucky when Bowden was winding down and Clemson was a bit in turmoil and no one else had anything. Sometimes you just get lucky. In 83 Valvano got very lucky, and then he rode the luck with some really savvy coaching. Sloan on the other hand would have won two if not for the jealousy of one DES.

    All sport is a crap shoot every year. It’s the nature of the beast. Look at the landscape, today’s hot commodity in coaching is tomorrows corpse. Mack Brown won a NC and 3 years later he’s sitting in a TV booth. And if anyone could pick a winning coach out of the barrel on a perfect basis they would be the hottest consultant to ever live. The truth is hiring a coach is at best a losing proposition, no matter who they are, because one day they are on top, the next they fade away.

    Smarter than the average bear

    #105561
    McCallum
    Participant

    Winning at Duke in football, rarely do sentences contradict themselves so much.

    But yet there it is for all to see. A comparison to Double D need not be made since he lacks extensive experience and a stead staff but finding the right coach makes all the difference. It is akin to finding the right people in any field yet most bodies will simply plug and chug.

    Low recruiting and facilities yet good results.

    I keep thinking Mario Cristobal or Dan Mullen.

    McCallum

    *the who you gonna get position is the BOHICs choice (bend over here it comes)

    #105563
    Fastback68
    Participant

    Cut went 20-40 his first 5 years. If DD goes 3-9 in year 4&5 like Cut did, obviously I don’t see him here for year 6. Duke was patient but the fan base probably wasn’t paying attention anyway with all the binge drinking. I’m sure they had to be shocked in 2013 10-2.

    However, Yow is a wild card so close to retirement. Is she going to phone it in the last couple years which appears to be the road taken by TOB.

    #105564
    tractor57
    Participant

    I think this is a pivotal year. Do I think coach D is a fool? No. He did see some weakness in the staff (or was helped to see) and adjusted. Were the right choices made? We will see. As to recruiting not natty caliber of course but seems better than under TOB. Time to show improvement in the win/loss – tough thing with the schedule this year but we simply have to see signs of improvement.

    #105568
    Greywolf
    Participant

    He did see some weakness in the staff (or was helped to see) and adjusted.

    And just who do you think has the football acumen to see weakness in the staff? Ex-basketball coach, Debbie Yow? The head coach gets the blame when something goes wrong but we insinuate that he’s not smart enough to make decisions without help when something looks like it might go right.

    IMO DD has established the culture for our football program. He is slowly but surely gathering assistant coaches and staff to follow his plan. (I don’t know his plan. I’ve not been shared with although I can guess.) We are recruiting high character young men and young men who seem to be willing to work to be all they can be. It’s not that we don’t have problems. Shad rode his moped on the sidewalk. Other players have been dismissed for violating team rules and there were those 7 who got in trouble for shooting a bee bee gun.

    I’m liking what I’m seeing at the end of year 3/beginning of year 4. Progress not fast enough for you? Get a grip. Joe Giglio likes what he’s seeing and has predicted 8-4 for the season. But what the hell does he know, he’s not a board monkey.

    #105569
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    It IS a pivotal year, #4 at a school that isn’t Duke or Wake. But given the sack of catcrap/dumpster fire that Doeren inherited from “no thanks, I don’t believe I will recruit any more” TOB – the thought that anyone wants to talk about firing the coach BEFORE said year 4 is just asinine.

    I like that we spent real money to go out and get an OC that other schools wanted and was likely in line to get an SEC job soon.

    Let’s see what they come up with before pre-emptively shitting all over it, shall we?

    And yeah, sure, it could go tits up. That’s sports, that’s life. Get the f-ck over it, already.

    #105570
    Whiteshoes67
    Participant

    Talent level doesn’t pass the eye test in several areas. Incremental improvement isn’t enough in this day and age. You have to have positive results in the win column.

    Imo, defense is the biggest issue. speed lacking in back 7. Scheme lacking. Looks very Big 10ish on defense.

    #105571
    Fastback68
    Participant

    My bad, Cut 4-8, 5-7, 3-9, 3-9, 6-7, 10-4, 9-4, 8-5. Some crazy— wins and losses in that stretch.

    #105573
    Greywolf
    Participant

    I like that we spent real money to go out and get an OC that other schools wanted and was likely in line to get an SEC job soon.

    The real coup may have been getting Dwayne Ledford from App State. If you haven’t done so already, go to gopack.com and in the archived stories section check out the Band of Brothers videos especially No. 3. He’s got those O-linemen grooving. He would be a very fun guy to play for. They work hard, take pride in being the first ones on the field and the last ones off after practice. Ledford praises the work at the level he’s coached them and talks about raising the bar at the next practice. Always positive, always elevating the level of play. His corrections are done in such a way as to have the players want to do what he asked. It’s fun watching the players interact with each other. They truly are a Band of Brothers.

    Anybody who thinks this is a bunch of rookies replacing 3 departing seniors is in for a shock. Joe Scelfo, the center, is the senior leadership this O-line needs. And he is the leader, a three year start, all-conference (non-P5) his junior year. The tackles will be just fine and of course Adams at right guard has experience. Bradbury, the soph left guard will be ready to rock by the time ND gets to town.

    #105575
    choppack1
    Participant

    Has one poster here stated that they want DD fired now or after this season?

    I think the vast majority of wolfpack fans are of the opinion that unless this season has a similar record to year 1, DD needs and deserves year 5.

    I do think there are positive signs for the program, but there is also the reality that we haven’t beaten a P5 team that finished with a winning record.

    Imho, this is a Missouri year for DD. The fans need a statement win and overall solid season to keep the atmosphere festive. We all pretty much know he is getting at least one more year.

    He is the type of man I want representing wolfpack football and I hope he is here – thru merit – a long time.

    As for the comparison to various coaches and the all you need is time argument, I think each case is different. One thing is certain, the longer a program stinks, the more toxic the environment gets.

    #105577
    Greywolf
    Participant

    Talent level doesn’t pass the eye test in several areas. Incremental improvement isn’t enough in this day and age. You have to have positive results in the win column.

    Imo, defense is the biggest issue. speed lacking in back 7. Scheme lacking. Looks very Big 10ish on defense.

    I love this! Talking football.

    What are the areas that don’t pass your eye test?

    And don’t you think that we should wait to see what the win column tells us before we decide the improvement (or not) is incremental? You do realize you have judged this football team before the first kick-off?

    I’m not all that familiar with Big-10 football but I do think that 4-3-4 was mostly played up there. We converted to 4-2-5 a couple of years ago I suppose because of the spread and 3 receivers sets we encounter in the ACC. A lot of those “big gains” we gave up were a result of mistakes made in a defense most HS don’t play. IMNSHO there is nothing wrong with the scheme we play, just execution. Like most sports high level technique and schemes are more difficult to learn but have the highest pay-off in the long term. Our fan point of view often fails to see past the mistakes made in the learning curve and thus believe we should drop back to lessor technique and scheme.

    You may be right about speed being lacking in the back 7 but we are redshirting men who will more than make up for that lack of speed in 2017. I’m not say wait until next year, but I do think DD has a plan for it all to come together then. In the mean time I’m with JG in believing that 8-4 is possible this year. Granted 8-4 is not predictable looking in the rear view mirror, but is entirely possible looking out of the front of your face.

    #105578
    YogiNC
    Participant

    I would bet good money that if you ask the players they love to play for DD. And I also think the tweaks in the coaches will show positive returns this year. DD is growing and maturing too. Great coaches aren’t made overnight. The difficult thing is they will have to keep their heads up if they have some rough spots. This year’s schedule is brutal.

    Smarter than the average bear

    #105579
    wolfpack92owen
    Participant

    I think this is a pivotal year. Do I think coach D is a fool? No. He did see some weakness in the staff (or was helped to see) and adjusted. Were the right choices made? We will see. As to recruiting not natty caliber of course but seems better than under TOB. Time to show improvement in the win/loss – tough thing with the schedule this year but we simply have to see signs of improvement.

    He was in fact at the spring caravans touting the recording breaking offensive records, hell he was just talking about it last week without addressing the elephant in the room. Now I like the hire of Eli but the fact that he hasnt even hinted as to why he kept our DC is a head scratcher. Our defense last year in critical situations screwed the pooch in each and every time. But I guess the heat was on to some degree to make a change and firing both OC and DC was too much of a system shock.

    I honestly dont get the “give him time he is building something” argument. DD for the most part is recruiting below average, he hasnt shown the ability to out coach anyone at this point, and his teams dont really have any sort of identity. If he cannot pull a rabbit out of his hat this year then really whats the point?

    Personally I think we are in the ultimate proverbial holding pattern as an athletic program. Yow is not leaving until 2019 and she isnt firing either coach under any circumstance. I imagine we crap the bed again in football and underachieve again in bball but excuses will come from the top and the cycle repeats itself. It really is a minor miracle our fans continue to buy season tickets for both sports. Almost like a crack addict knowing its totally bad for you but cannot resist either way.

    #105581
    john of sparta
    Participant

    However, Yow is a wild card so close to retirement.
    well played Fastback68.

    What are the areas that don’t pass your eye test?
    Greywolf: QB.

    #105582
    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    What are the areas that don’t pass your eye test?

    From the upper deck . . .
    Our linebackers, Dbacks, Wide Receivers and Running Backs look all to be the same size and ‘small’ by football standards . . .
    Interchangeable parts so to speak….

    Oline and Dline look “small” too . . . .

    We shall see . . . it’s just basketball in pads on grass . . . last team to score — wins.

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
    #105583
    Greywolf
    Participant

    What are the areas that don’t pass your eye test?
    Greywolf: QB.

    Quarterbacks competing for starting positions:
    McClendon 6-5, 212 lbs
    Finley 6-4, 200 lbs
    Don’t pass the eye test?
    Using jargon trying to sound knowledgeable?

    Finley was starting for Boise State before season ending injury. McClendon and Finley in a battle too close to call. OK, neither of these guys is as good as Clemson’s Watson but both are predictably very good college quarterbacks. If they aren’t very good, Mac will be able to look back and say, “I told you so.” If either turns out, we won’t hear from him.

    #105584
    McCallum
    Participant

    Everybody loves a winner, nobody cares about a loser.

    He has been losing and appears to be on track for another season of barely getting by.

    He has no proven quarterback and in the current football climate of scoring you need a good quarterback plus wideouts.

    State has neither.

    There is where the rubber meets the road.

    5-7, 4-8

    McCallum

    *who you gonna get?

    #105585
    McCallum
    Participant

    Hell no.

    I’m telling you now.

    If they turnout I’ll gladly and without regret admit that I was wrong.

    Problem is things seldom go as you want them to go. You can’t project what you want to happen or wish to happen.

    The game now is all about scoring.

    State ain’t got none.

    McCallum

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