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Yes, I’ve finally had enough caffeine and motivation/shame to force myself to sit down and do this. For a chance, Doeren isn’t squarely behind the 8 b
[See the full post at: Football Schedule Analysis]Good write-up and fair analysis. 7-5 is the ceiling, IMO. I’m not sure we’re ready to be over-achievers yet. I’ll officially go with a boring 6-6, although I have this nagging feeling that 5-7 is very, very much on the table.
The past can’t escape us…I’m on record as saying we’ll go 7-5 with a big win (ND or FSU) but also pulling a terrible loss (Wake or BC).
UH, with a roster full of Tony Levine recruits, went into Louisville and came out with a W last season and we can’t even dream of a close game there. Until our recruiting picks up dramatically we will be capped at 9 wins. The talent gap between State and FSU/Clemson makes those games walk-overs every year.
The QB situation should be better than the Brandon Mitchell / Pete Thomas horror show but it may be just as fluid. I’m crossing my fingers that Drinksalot is a mad scientist and will razzle dazzle the offense to 35 pts/game in conference play
Great write up and I agree I think the ND game is ripe for us. A win there could easily turn this season into something are unaccustomed to.
Two things though.
1. I think the WandM probability is too high, 99.9% for a pretty decent “cupcake” type team. They return a above average senior qb from a good offensive team. One that could give us fits early on. Think we win but it may not be as easy as it seems.
2. Our QB situation now is giving me all sorts of nightmares. I cannot think of any reason to feel good about that position going into the first game without a starter named and with plans to play both players. Given A)one qb is in his 3rd year in the program and was a 4star and b)the other qb came with the new wonderkid OC and reportedly already knew the offense. Not sure how one could spin this as a positive
If you had held a gun to my head and asked me which year this was for Doeren, I would have sworn it was his 3rd. I guess I blocked his first season out of my mind, too.
Also, I should have mentioned – if you are looking to do a road trip…Louisville in October is the winner, hands down. It’s a neat drive, and an absolutely beautiful, welcoming town. Nice people who are very much like us (in how they view their “blues” and their protected status, etc).
And unless something has changed since the mid-90s, you can get beer in the stadium!
Given A)one qb is in his 3rd year in the program and was a 4star and b)the other qb came with the new wonderkid OC and reportedly already knew the offense. Not sure how one could spin this as a positive
Given precisely that wording, I can’t think of a way to spin it negatively. We shall see.
Beej, outstanding scripting of the schedule. It pretty much reflects my take, too. It has been very secretive around #1 Wolfpack Drive.
Thanks for the Louisville tip. I may give that one a try. I’m already planning to go to the ECU and Clemson games. I’m thinking we upset one or two teams this year.
I don’t know if it’s been mentioned in another thread, but Pete Finley was given another year of eligibility, so he now has 3 years left.
Pete Finley
That’s ECU’s pirate mascot, isn’t it?
That would by Ryan Finley, and hopefully his grasp of the offense will produce a surprising season. As for talent, I really don’t see that our talent level this year is anything to worry about. If the offense can produce, then our suspect defense of a year ago, will spend less time on the field. I will be optimistic, until the team prove otherwise. Go Pack!
Great post jb34. Enjoyed it. While I don’t agree with the percentages, I think the overall record is about right.
Pete Finley
That’s ECU’s pirate mascot, isn’t it?
A 4 letter typo, I doubt it. Hope Tex is right.
Good review and I like looking at each of the games as a series of individual chances based on the week. That’s really the way the season plays out.
Having said that, I’m doing the same analysis and going with 6-6. I think we’re at about 35%-40% of a chance to win against UNC. I just don’t like how we match up on the road.
I also think we’re at about a 25% on ND. The talent gap there is too big. ND is used to taking the other teams’ best shots out of programs looking for signature wins. We’re looking for any sort of signature win under DD. This team and DD don’t magically inherit the big win mojo that we’ve had over the past 30 years.
Love the write-up! Went through the same exercise and really torn on the ND game. While I feel like we win that game for some reason, I agree with Rye on the likelihood. All that said, I have us at 6.06 wins. Love to see us get to 7 wins with this schedule, but won’t be distraught if we play well and only manage 5.
Either way, I’m looking forward to good year! Heading to the ECU game, but really need to think about the Louisville trip. Have a bad taste in my mouth about that game last year. My oldest and her boyfriend (UofL Law Student) made the trip from Louisville, the engine blew on my youngest’s SUV in the pouring way on the way to game, then we looked a little lost on the field. However, it would have been a lot worse had the father of my daughter’s boyfriend not met us on the highway, tossed our tailgate supplies into the back of his truck and gave us the keys so we could make kickoff. Yep, he then proceeded to wait for AAA in the rain and had the car towed back to his house. Talk about a quality guy!
Great write up. Agree with 99% of it. The 1% we don’t see eye to eye on is DD having a grasp on the bitterness of the rivalry with the Cheats.
All I know is some “analyst” undergraduate on this site told me how good Fraiser was going to be after I questioned the FACT that he couldn’t get his high school team to the state championship at the 1A level.
They will be lucky the win 6.
Fire him, go after Dan Mullen.
McCallum
All I know is some “analyst” undergraduate on this site told me how good Fraiser was going to be after I questioned the FACT that he couldn’t get his high school team to the state championship at the 1A level.
Judging how good “Fraiser” is going to be before he’s played a down is almost as ludicrous as judging him NOT to be good before he plays his first down.
The only relevant FACT to do with Frasier is the FACT that he hasn’t played the first down of college ball.
4th on the depth chart at NC State despite being considered one of the top backs in the nations says enough.
So most certainly I’m making a judgement.
You made my point for me though, he hasn’t played a down. If he was all that and a bad of chips we would know by now.
Just remember Ted Brown did not play in the first games of his freshman season. Knowing such I’m withholding any judgment for now.
Ted Brown also lead TA Andrews to a 4A state title against a loaded Richmond County team.
Knowing that I’m making judgement.
McCallum
All I know is some “analyst” undergraduate on this site told me how good Fraiser was going to be after I questioned the FACT that he couldn’t get his high school team to the state championship at the 1A level.
They will be lucky the win 6.
Fire him, go after Dan Mullen.
McCallum
I understand you don’t post as often as maybe you once did but you must be a sad little man. Yeah I get your comments are an indictment of Doreen not the kid but you stay away for while and comeback to troll for things to say “I told you so”. You really don’t add anything insightful or useful for that matter. Why don’t you put your ideas or opinions on here? Oh that’s right you are only a keyboard cowboy. Don’t be afraid. If they are actually insightful we may have some legitimate debates. Otherwise make your bed, and go outside and play.
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