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Good morning, one and all.
Because I am jinxed in my personal affairs (from dating to pseudo-gambling), I only have one league title under my belt. But I do have a history of giving good advice to others (both ends of parenthetical), as long as there is no benefit to myself.
As I prepare for my auction (only 12 teams this year instead of the ideal 14, but 20-man rosters are still nice) in Northern Virginia Labour Day Monday, I have begun preparing and will answer any questions you may have. Here are my preliminary thoughts:
1) Go “all in” on Aaron Rodgers. The NFC Central has “wild shootout” written all over it. He’s healthy and motivated. I predict he will be the most productive QB in fantasy, by a significant margin. But he won’t be the most expensive. Value is what you need to win.
2) Use as many bench spots as possible on RBs. I am completely underwhelmed by the top tier guys at this position. I would much rather have an elite QB, and two top WRs (say, Demariyus Thomas and Brandon Marshall), then go volume at this position. Pierre Thomas should thrive in New Orleans with Sproles out of the picture. Jeremy Hill has beastly potential in Cincinnati. Bishop Sankey could load up on garbage time receptions in Tennessee. Christine (the strawberry girl) Michael could emerge as a star in Seattle, with Marshawn Lynch almost certainly on his way out the door after this season. Several non-Frank Gore options in SF. The possibilities are endless. But you can’t count on any one guy as a “sure thing” so volume is essential.
3) Cincinnati has bad December weather, and the worst kicking surface in the NFL by far. Don’t own a kicker who has a game scheduled there in your playoff weeks. It’s totally ok to overbid on Steven Hauschka out of love.
4) I have no feel on defenses this year, and value is so dependent on playing against a bad OL (which is also hard to predict). So, select a safe midrange unit, and prepare to stream away.
I love talking fantasy football although my applied abilities leave a lot to be desired.
1) The lineup of Rodgers, Lacy, Nelson & Cobb is truly a fantasy football lineup. I can’t think of a better foursome on one team.
2) The scary thing about taking a WR high is the TD production fluctuates pretty radically from season to season. I want to say I saw a stat that Megatron scored only 5 TDs in 2012 but was tackled inside the 5 yard line like 10 times. FF has evolved so much from when I started in the late 90s, seems like 20 of the first 24 picks were RBs; now it’s probably 50/50
3) Meh on kickers
4) I think I saw ESPN had Cleveland rated their 15th best team defense/special teams; I think that is way too low. I always take TE, K & Def/ST with my last three picks. Cleveland would be a steal if still available at the end of the draftNot one for fantasy football, Doctor Beej, but you should cut yourself some slack on your gaming prowess.
Each season I have managed to lift a few of your picks with success.
Since you are open for biz, my opening Saturday parlay looks like this as of today:
Cal+9 @ Northwestern
OK St.+17 v.FSU in Arlington
UVa +21.5 v.UCLA @ C’villeWatcha got for us, Dr.Beej?
I would advise anyone to try and own Jimmy Graham. The gap between him and other TEs gives you a huge advantage. Gronk won’t last two games.
It pains me to say it, but I’m predicting Giovani Bernard to be the next “it” RB, especially in PPR leagues.
Finally, 3rd year in the league with weapons to throw to, Andrew Luck is your QB.
You’re welcome.
In a deep PPR league, I’d be happy to start Gio Bernard and Jeremy Hill every week.
Dog – love the Okie State and Cal picks. Much less certain re UVA/UCLA. I will go back and check the betting lines after my post-exercise bike shower.
Falcons Hard Knocks is absolute garbage TV. They make Joe Philbin’s Dolphins seem interesting.
OOOOO, Fantasy Football!
Would you draft Aaron Rodgers as high as pick #20/21? (I’m in a 10-team PPR league)
Yes, unless no QBs have been drafted and a Top 5 WR or Jimmy Graham still available.
If you’re living right, you take your pick of RB (in PPR this is a trickier question), then 2nd best WR that most people have as #5 (Demariyus), then Graham or Rodgers.
This is why I prefer auctions, though. I hate being forced into a position by draft slot. Rodgers should be more in the 25-30 range.
Challenger folks did a lot of fancy math and came up with the figure of $13.4 billion in lost work output nationwide, thanks to fantasy sports.
[snip]
So should you, as a business owner and employer, be outraged and ban all such nonsense in your workplace?
Absolutely not, says the employment consulting firm.
“An across-the-board ban on all fantasy football or sports websites is likely to backfire and cause a drop in morale, loyalty and, ironically, productivity,” Challenger said. “The end result could be far worse than any loss of productivity caused by an hour or two of team management each week.”
Some words of caution regarding Andrew Luck (and if you aren’t regularly reading Bill Barnwell, you really should be):
^
What do they say about 5 minutes of “Jill Does the Bills”,or something as morale boosting like that?We used to have the same convos when I worked for Eaton Corp. about large office pools. Keeping the pools always won out, for the same reason denoted.
Even though it was a blatant form of “gambling”, it always came down to the top wheels realizing that banning it, would have negative repercussions.
Ok if Rodgers is the first QB off the board who is the second? Last year I had PM and I rode him to one loss record. Read several magazines that quarterbacks always drop after a year like that. Does he drop enough that others are more likely to have a better year? I know there are some Broncos homers here. Do you take PM again with his age increasing and the arm strength dwindling. I think seattle laid a blue print on how to stop the Manning attack. I think you take Brees and maybe rivers ahead of him. Who else? It’s hard to say PM won’t have at least two thirds of the TD’s he had last year and still that’s a career season for some.
I’m a steelers homer so of course I think he(Ben) will have a good year. The addition of archer and miller one year removed from his ACL repair will make a difference.
I am a Broncos homer, but I would not go overboard on PeyPey. For one, Denver has taken great strides towards improving its defense. Good for me, bad for the fantasy owner…because it means fewer shootouts. That’s where fantasy gold lies.
Second, that arm strength thing and the ever-present injury risk. PeyPey is essentially a ticking timebomb. But he does have his all-pro LT back.
My “draft a QB high” targets would be Rodgers and then Brees. After that, I probably wait. Jay Cutler would be serviceable, as would Matthew Stafford.
The injury risk is such that a good #2 would be a MUST…but don’t write off Tony Romo. Dallas’ defense looks to be putrid, and they will throw a metric f-ckton.
The list of disagreements between BJD and myself continue to grow….politics, cats, and now this inane love for fantasy football. Before long, I won’t even talk to him. 😉
@BJD… Speaking of football in Cinncy in December, I already have my MNF tickets for the Broncos vs. Bengals in hand. Gonna be a cold, but complete a$$ kicking of the tiggers. Even with my love and respect for Russell, I want a return date with the seachickens!
It’s funny – VA’s logic is probably more similar to mine than anyone else I can think of. And we come to near opposite conclusions on everything other than wolven matters. LMAO, life is funny that way.
Vol – I am quite jelly. This Divorcemas, I am taking a solo trip to Costa Rica (base location is Playa Hermosa). There was no way to avoid missing the Sunday slate and at least half of the Denver/Cincy game with flight scheduling. Hopefully it will be on in the airport while I wait to go through customs. And that it is a proper thrashing, so I can mock my Bungle fan little brother.
There is my #1 advice tidbit – if you get divorced, make sure to leave town the years you don’t have your kids for Xmas. Good for thought/reflection, and avoiding binge drinking embarrassment. At this point, I actively look forward to it as a change of pace, and to be functionally Jewish (in terms of tree avoidance every other year).
Back to Denver – shutting out the Niners in their Levi’s grand opening gives me way more hope than it should. But that’s what August is for, false hope!!
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