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With just a couple of weeks remaining in the regular season, and then the conference championships, things are starting to come into clearer focus regarding the four teams that will qualify for the first college football playoff. Here’s what your top contenders have remaining.
Mississippi State – @ Bama, Vandy, @ Ole Miss, SEC Championship game
Bama – Mississippi State, Western Carolina, Aubie, SEC Championship game
Florida State – @ Miami, BC, Florida, ACC Championship game
Oregon – Colorado, @ Oregon State, PAC 12 Championship game
TCU – @ Kansas, @ Texas, Iowa State
Baylor – Okie State, @ Texas Tech, Kansas State
Arizona State – @ Oregon State, Washington State, @ Arizona, PAC 12 Championship game
Ohio State – @ Minnesota, Indiana, Michigan, Big 10 Championship game
It will be interesting to see who comes out of the juggernaut that is the SEC West – Miss State or Bama? Obviously the head to head this coming weekend, but thereis still work to do for both following this giant game. Either could face losses to Ole Miss or Aubie, respectively. Both will be heavy favorites in the SEC Championship game. Elimination game Saturday? Not so fast.
Florida State – Win and in. Florida could present a bit of an issue as the Gators have been playing better. Duke will give them a game in Charlotte but the talent will win out in the end. Win and in.
TCU/Baylor – Will the fact there is no Big 12 Championship clip the Toads or Bears? Toads have the more favorable schedule. But will it be enough? Does the SEC West get 2 in at the expense of cowboy country?
Oregon – Like FSU, win and in. Favorable schedule compared to ASU. Will likely face ASU in the PAC 12 Championship game. I don’t see the Ducks being snubbed if they win out.
Ohio State – Very small chance. Everybody ahead on this list would have to lose a game. The Bucks should win out but the competition leaves a lot to be desired. Not a good chance of getting in.
Thank you VT, for beating THEEEEEEEEEE OSU early on.
Nice job by TCU putting that Baylor loss behind them … That’s the type of demoralizing loss that can derail a potentially special season.
Thankfully, ND has their second loss. But unfortunately this just means that they will take a bowl spot away from an ACC school.
We will find out how serious the committee is about the importance of being a conference champion if a one loss Miss St. makes the playoff ahead of a one loss conference champion.
Hopefully all of the SEC teams finish with at least two losses and they get, rightfully, shutout of the playoff.
I could absolutely see a scenario where the SEC is left out. Bama beats MSU then loses to Aubie. Or MSU beats Bama then loses to Ole Miss. And either could lose in the conference championship. FSU, Oregon, TCU/Baylor win out. It would be interesting to see what would go down in that situation.
FSU falls to third in the new rankings. Miss State and Oregon one and two. TCU in the four spot. But we all know the Tide move up with a win over Miss State Saturday.
Bama is all over Cowbell. Ohio State does enough against the Gophers. TCU down 10 to Kansas. FSU and Miami tonight.
If this score holds for Bama, it will be interesting to see if Miss State can work itself back into the mix with a win over Ole Miss. They would still be able to win the West if Bama were to faulter against Aubie. Interesting stuff indeed.
And boy is this TCU score something. Kansas? Good golly. Baylor and Ohio State are licking their chops.
It will be interesting to see how FSU fares tonight. If the Noles are lackluster, I can see them falling down to number four. Does Bama move up to one or two? How far down does Miss State fall? What about TCU? Does Ohio State jump the toads?
It will be interesting to see how FSU fares tonight. If the Noles are lackluster, I can see them falling down to number four. Does Bama move up to one or two? How far down does Miss State fall? What about TCU? Does Ohio State jump the toads?
^Yeah – no matter the outcome of the FSU game tonight, there’s going to be an avalanche of hand-wringing throughout this week on how the committee rankings shake out. Thankfully there are some huge games plus conference title tilts over the next three weeks so I can safely ignore the loud opinions and panels on Espn, etc. this week 🙂
Oregon State tops Arizona State, so that pushes Ohio State up another slot. Your contenders are now Bama, Oregon, FSU, Baylor, TCU and Ohio State, and possibly Miss State but they are way down the list now.
I think, if the selections were made today, that comes out like this…
Oregon
FSUnot in any order…
Bama, Baylor, TCU and Ohio State, Miss StatePick Two.
A whole lot can and will change before the final decision.
#NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!I think that you will see Bama and Oregon at 1 and 2. FSU at a solid 3. That leaves one spot open for one of Baylor, TCU, Ohio State and Miss State.
TCU had a bad game and they will surely fall. Miss State lost to a very good Bama team on the road. But it is still a loss. They can work their way back into it but will need some help.
Just saw that Herbstreit has Ohio State in at number four. He had Bama, FSU and Oregon has 1-2-3. Heard Danielson on the radio and he has Ohio State in as well. I do think the Buckeyes are going to see some love from the committee Tuesday night. They may not be in but will move up at least two, maybe three spots.
… hmm that Team that everybody living outside of Leon County hates … is back as the AP#1…
that gives them the top seeding and puts the two teams everybody outside of Leon County thinks are the best in the semifinal…
#NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!FSU won’t be the top seed Tuesday night I don’t think. It will either be Bama or Oregon with FSU as the 3 seed. The BIG question is who is 4? It won’t be TCU I will guarantee it. Most likely Baylor, though Ohio State could sneak in as well.
Somebody please remove OSU from the conversation. They don’t deserve to be in the picture losing to a lousy VT that’s not even bowl eligible yet in the weaker ACC division.
“FSU won’t be the top seed Tuesday night I don’t think. It will either be Bama or Oregon with FSU as the 3 seed” – Personally, I don’t see how the committee can jump Bama from 5th to 1st, even with another shaky showing from FSU. Oregon, FSU, Bama, MissSt in that order. That’s it; that’s the list. The Big12 and Big10 can go pound sand.
A one-loss B-12 champ (TCU or Baylor) will go over a one-loss Miss St team that doesn’t even play in the championship game.
“A one-loss B-12 champ (TCU or Baylor) will go over a one-loss Miss St team that doesn’t even play in the championship game.” – they may. Do you say that because you think the Big12 champion is better than MSU? Or are you saying Miss St shouldn’t even be considered because they (probably) can’t win the SEC? I think Miss St should be in the final four because they are one of the 4 best teams in the country.
There is no Big 12 championship.
You don’t have to play a championship game to have a conference champion. But since State hasn’t won one since 1979, you’re forgiven for forgetting. 🙂
Do you say that because you think the Big12 champion is better than MSU?
Don’t know. But I’m betting that a team that doesn’t even play in the conference championship won’t be selected over two one-loss conference champs.
I would take a one loss MSU over a one loss OSU, but I would be hard pressed to take them over a one loss Big12 champ.
Interesting, I’m surprised you guys think so highly of TCU, Baylor and the teams in the B12 they have beaten. Do you think your view is skewed because MSU’s loss is more fresh than the others? I think that is one of the things the committee has vowed to avoid, i.e. penalizing teams for having the most recent loss.
Do you think your view is skewed because MSU’s loss is more fresh than the others?
Not really. I’ve been expecting Alabama to beat them for weeks, so I’ve spent some time thinking about how I would rank a very good team that doesn’t even qualify for their championship game. The other interesting scenario is what do you do with a one-loss FSU that still wins the ACC?
Both of these scenarios would make for some interesting discussion…with the emphasis on ‘cuss.
11/18 Rankings
Bama
Ducks
Noles
Dogs
Bucks
Bears
FrogstOSU now has the Minnesota win equal to TCU’s and a win over Sparty that’s better than any win on the schedule of either TCU or Baylor. Their loss to VT is worse than either the TCU loss to Baylor or the Baylor loss to WVU. tOSU can only hope that they get some partial forgiveness for the VT loss due to the short prep time for Barrett.
On the negative side for the Dogs their two best wins, over a four loss LSU team and a three loss Auburn squad don’t have quite the luster they did earlier
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