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If you think blown leads and huge deficits don’t anger fans then you haven’t been following the Pack this season. Just take a look at the fiascoes ove
[See the full post at: Calling Dr. Heimlich]EW
Wonder how Gott would compare with previous Wolfpack coaches, including Jimmy V and Stormin’ Norman? No idea, but it would be interesting to know as a baseline since we can’t compare with coaches outside the program.Gott’s having a rough year, no doubt. The team is young, but Duke’s really young (only 1 SR, 2 JR – I think) and they seem to be plodding along okay. They don’t really play Duke style defense, but they get it done.
I just don’t think Gott is breeding the toughness required to overcome adversity. With four former head coaches on the bench, you’d think someone could figure it out. This league is brutal. You can’t relax, you can’t get down over a mistake, you have to keep fighting. Does not seem to be happening.
BTW – The picture made me laugh, have not seen that cat in ages.
Interesting article, but this type of scenario is happening more frequently to other teams as well. Just Saturday UNX was up 18 and loved to them blow that lead. I was happy to see the times we came back – when I saw the headline I thought it was going to be another hack the coach job.
Let me take this one step further though – so we have had a few leads that we have blown. How many times did we have an 18 point lead in the Lowe era? Or the HWSNBN era?
Would I like to see us finish these leads? Of course! But frankly, the fact we can build a big lead is positive – unlike eras of the past where we had no chance.
Thanks for the post! Would be really interesting to see when State had a 10+ lead after the half. If you jump out to 13-2 three minutes into the game but the game immediately settles into a seesaw battle, that is entirely different from blowing an 11 point lead with three minutes to go.
Thanks for this analysis. I wouldn’t use the UNC vs. Louisville game as a good example of this being a trend across the land. It’s fairly easy to hazard a guess why this happens to us so frequently.
We tend to be pretty good on offense, and occasionally just plain unstoppable. But shooting 50-70% from the floor isn’t usually sustainable. We’re not a good defensive team, so when the opponent starts hitting, and we slow down, the leads dwindle. Throw in poor rebounding, not getting to the line and poor free throw shooting, an unforced turnover here or there, you get blown leads. More than anything, poor defense makes it difficult to weather dry spells on offense and survive hot streaks by other teams. When you can’t get stops,you can’t come back no matter how good you are with the ball, and you can’t sustain leads.
Thanks for the post! Would be really interesting to see when State had a 10+ lead after the half. If you jump out to 13-2 three minutes into the game but the game immediately settles into a seesaw battle, that is entirely different from blowing an 11 point lead with three minutes to go.
Click on the links with the times and you’ll see at what time in the game State was up or down by 10 points, what time was the largest lead, when the lead disappeared, and how long it took to go from the largest lead to nothing. That should answer your question.
WOW…..what an analysis. I fully understand, unless you have access to the Network’s PAID database, how much work went into that. Some the simple little factoids that I toss out took hours to research and format and put together….so it really is appreciated.
The comments popped up, while I was also doing some research….and they are interesting as well.
My take….as one who has always followed NCSU BB for more than 50 years and one who has been lucky to go to the ACCT since the late 90’s and has been a season PNC ticket holder since 2006….It is what it is.
No big lead is a guaranteed lead. It SOMETIMES is…but ask Ricky and Roy about how that worked out this weekend. I watched Duke destroy us in Charlotte after we had destroyed Maryland….and old Gary took the boys to the Dance that year and won the entire thing. We were the LAST team to beat them. I have watched Duke, probably, destroy MORE teams and leads.
Yes, we do NOT have the Killer Instinct. Never have….take Valvano’s game against Houston. Are we doing worse? I don’t truthfully know. Are we inconsistent this year….YES….much more so. BUT, compared to the last years, we are consistently playing HIGHER quality ball….be it short lived at times.
I TOTALLY agree….we need to be more KILLERS and more CONFIDENT. Don’t know how you exactly coach that….it is not an X & 0 drill thing.
How about the following…..It is taken from here….
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/leaders/win-loss-pct-coach-career.html
The order is NAME >> Winning Percentage rounded to 3 places >> Rank
I could have put in a few more or a few less. I made the call since it included some of the “Gee….wish we had’s”. Don’t know where Shaka is….do NOT think I left him out. BUT there are some FIRED ACC Coaches that are in the top 200 or so.Forgive my format….Jig is a Master at formatting….but look at this data…
R. Williams> 0.792> 9
D. Smith> 0.776> 16
M. Krzyzewski> 0.764> 19
J. Boeheim> 0.746> 29
R. Pitino> 0.745> 31
E. Case> 0.738> 33
S. Miller> 0.735> 36
L. Brown> 0.720> 47
B. Donavon> 0.716> 52
G. Marshall> 0.711> 62
B. Knight> 0.706> 71
G. Lewis> 0.680> 96
J. Harrick> 0.667> 116
L. Driesell> 0.666> 119
M. Brey> 0.662> 128
R. Barnes> 0.661> 130
T. Holland> 0.659> 134
M. Cronin> 0.642> 168
M. Gottfried> 0.642> 170
G. Williams> 0.637> 181
J. Valvano> 0.628> 203
M. Turgeon> 0.614> 229
N. Sloan> 0.609> 244The old family rule of thumb used to be UP by 10 at 10 to go….WIN. Now it is more like up by 10 with 2 to go….WIN.
When State gets a 10+ point lead, 38% of the time the game is later narrowed to a one-possession game and 24% of the time State loses.
When State falls into a 10+ point hole, 43% of the time the game is later narrowed to a one-possession game and 26% of the time State wins.
Right?
So my takeaway is that we are not any better or worse at holding big leads than our opponents. There are more total comebacks against State than vice versa, of course, because (fortunately) we’re up big more than we’re down big.
Thanks for putting this together.
Nice piece of work that unfortunately leaves out key fundamental parameters…
1. This gets fixed when you play more Juniors and Seniors than you do Freshman and Sophomores…
regardless of who your Coach is or what color shirt he is wearing on the bench…
same for finding that ‘Team Killer Instinct”….2. First half leads are worth 1/2 as much as second half leads… especially on the road, against your rivals and in the tournament…
if you don’t understand this, stop and don’t go any further until you do …3. most of the ‘old rules’ up 10 with 10… or up 2 baskets with 2min left (the one I used ) predate both the Shot Clock and the Three Point Shot… so they ain’t worth nothing in today’s game…
4. Yes.. crazy sh#t happens that determines the outcome of games…
RE: last night’s Super Bowl ought to be proof enough of that…
two plays…. catching the bouncing ball laying on your back and the ‘stupidest play call in Super Ball History’..5. At the end of the day… ya’ll can beat these numbers and the wall all you want to…
we ain’t statistically outside the norm among the top 100 D1 schools…Have fun away with it …
or Call your therapist, not an EMT…#NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!This is fantastic work. Thanks so much for taking the time to cull these results.
6-12 in games where State has completely blown a 10+ point lead … I knew it was bad. Really glad you included games where the entire lead was not blown (pulled to within one possession) – gives a much more full picture of what we’ve witnessed.
Yes, the results are in a vacuum and losing leads does happen to every team. That said, ‘jumper first’ is no way to put away your opponent … neither is missing crucial front-ends while other teams hits 3’s. Perhaps equal parts lack of killer instinct and lack of execution. The pressure should be on your opponent and you should be the aggressor, not the other way around.
I agree in large part w/ Whiteshoes’ musings. We get a fairly high number of “early” leads and keep executing the same things that got us the lead. Part of the problem is when the lead is built on a high number of made jumpshots. Gottfried loves his shooters, and I don’t blame him. I truly admire his willingness to always call for the big shot – “corner!”. I’ll always respect someone who “goes for it” and I love that mentality.
It’s the balance though – it was clear that the gameplan on Saturday – at least early – was to actually ‘run the offense’. We started to get some inside-out action going and Kyle + Abu were responding well. You have to give other teams credit for disrupting that, but you can’t completely abandon the plan. By the end of the 1st half, Cat had bailed us out with a number of 3-pointers. We were damn lucky to escape with a win, b/c once Abu picked up his 4th foul the gameplan of ‘running the post offense’ was completely abandoned.
^This type of scenario seems to be a running theme for State in losing leads. Either we:
a) shoot ourselves into then out of a lead with bad shot selection
b) abandon the plan and execution of what helped build said lead
c) are completely unwilling and/or unable to execute post-entry passes, interior passing, and/or dribble penetration in order to exert due pressure on a trailing team
d) miss a string of crucial free throws – including numerous front-ends, turn the ball over, and allow the opponent to play way above it’s collective head (St. Louis)
For my part, at least for this season – we simply do not “attack” the rim in a half-court set. GT is abusing us on the boards – so what, you think that happens if they’re all fouled out? They have one player who can score consistently. One. The game is O-V-E-R if State simply chooses not to shoot a jumpshot every time down the court.
We’ll see if this mentality and execution changes any at all down the stretch this season. I do not have a good feeling about tomorrow night. Prove me wrong, please.
Thanks again for the work.
Nice work, jigs!
Speaking of asphyxiation, the late, great Mitch Hedberg had a funny line- “I don’t wear turtlenecks because it feels like I’m being strangled by a really weak guy.” And who could forget, “I used to do drugs (blow leads). I still do, but I used to, too.”
This gets fixed when you play more Juniors and Seniors than you do Freshman and Sophomores…
regardless of who your Coach is or what color shirt he is wearing on the bench…
same for finding that ‘Team Killer InstinctMaybe and maybe not but when you are having constant transfers you never find out and are stuck in a loop of “youth”.
All of what would be the juniors and seniors left and Gott was forced to fill those slots with transfers. We will be looking at the same situation in another year because of no recruits in the upcoming year. Bad scholarship spacing causes problems.BTW our starting guards average 3 2/3 years of college basketball experience (4 year, 5 year and 2 years players). In this day and age you are not going to get much more experience than that.
When State gets a 10+ point lead, 38% of the time the game is later narrowed to a one-possession game and 24% of the time State loses.
When State falls into a 10+ point hole, 43% of the time the game is later narrowed to a one-possession game and 26% of the time State wins.
Right?
So my takeaway is that we are not any better or worse at holding big leads than our opponents. There are more total comebacks against State than vice versa, of course, because (fortunately) we’re up big more than we’re down big.
Thanks for putting this together.
This, in combination with the title post, is the essence of, “lies, damn lies, and statistics.”
Note I don’t disagree with either post.
This required a lot of effort and is a ton of data. However, for really to be put into context we’d need to know how we compared to others and how gott compared to our other coaches…but I suspect jigs works for a living!
Nice work that went into this. I definitely appreciate it. The numbers based analysis is definitely more compelling, but I know from personal experience that it takes a long time to do.
I know it’s difficult, but I’d like to see the same work done with UVA, Maryland, Syracuse and UNC over the same period of time. I think they each represent an interesting case study against NC State:
– UVA: What a program truly headed up looks like. Grind it out and defensive oriented. I suspect that they don’t get down by 10 much and when they get an opponent down by 10, then they don’t let up.
– Maryland: Coaching hire the same year we did, and really kind of stumbled with the Turg out of the gate.
– Syracuse: Plays a stall ball game. One would think that there’d be fewer > or < 10 scenarios, or at least ones that actually moved.
– UNC: Very fast pace of play and a high # of possessions. This would suggest there are more large lead swings due to the more fluid game. Does that actually happen?Anecdotally, it feels like we have lots of games where the lead swings wildly. It feels like we give up more big leads than we make up (numbers suggest 2:1). We also could just have more talent than other teams, which causes us to be up versus down roughly 2:1.
If somebody can tell me where this data is coming from, I might be able to whip something up to compare coaches. No promises though.
This required a lot of effort and is a ton of data. However, for really to be put into context we’d need to know how we compared to others and how gott compared to our other coaches…but I suspect jigs works for a living!
I’m not sure that a comparison to other programs over time would tell us anything more than you could get from looking at the W/L records and NCAAT results over the same time period. Really good teams win more close games than they lose, hold onto a lead once they have it, come back from a cold shooting streak, etc.
Note that State does not meet this definition of “really good”.
Not knocking the methodology at all but a 10 point swing isn’t that much in today’s game. What stands out to me in the results is that about 1/2 those games are against dogs. Who knows, maybe this squad is another version of the cardiac pack
If somebody can tell me where this data is coming from, I might be able to whip something up to compare coaches. No promises though.
I’d like to know this, myself.
Great analysis and thanks for putting it together.
One thing that cannot be quantified, but I know it when I see it – the kids play hard and never give up. We’ve had some ‘head cases’ in the past couple year that clearly gave up when behind – but not this team.
So – Coach Gott either has recruited guys with the right attitude or he can motivate the heck out of these kids to keep playing and trying till the final buzzer.
I absolutely love watching this year’s team play. Better than any State team in a long, long time. And yes – the blown leads and close loses drive me crazy.
I also feel, that any game, we can win – no matter who we play. And I NEVER felt that way with Sendek or Sidney.
For that reason alone, I’m in Gott’s corner and will remain there unless something devastatingly huge changes my mine.
Bill the Cat – a desperate choice for desperate times!
I believe that was his Presidential slogan in ’84, yes? I woulda voted for him, but I was only 11.
The Notre Dame game was a clear coaching failure. Maybe that one game (where even a simpleton like myself could see what obviously was going to be the adjustment the Irish would make, and how we logically had to anticipate and counter it) showed a more big picture flaw – we react too much, and too slowly, rather than anticipate what the other team is going to do to counter-punch. That, combined with our lack of killer instinct, just buries us.
Thank God we do keep fighting, at least.
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