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True but not relevant because the same issue would exist with anyone that State is looking to hire. If State were looking for a new coach (and we’re not), then Archie already has everything that State would want.
There are many posters on this site who are certain they know how good Archie will be. Just ask them.
If Gott retired or were fired today, I would be in favor of hiring Archie. I just don’t think he is the slam dunk that so many make him out to be.
Archie’s ceiling is unknown but Gott’s has pretty well been defined. If you’re happy with Gott’s results, then you would want to keep him. If you’re not happy with what has produced over his entire career, then you’re ready for a shot at greatness rather than more of the same.
The discussion about Gott is really the Great Herb Debate all over again with one major exception. 1.21 JW did a great job outlining the deficiencies of Gott’s defensive “strategies” over his entire career. We never had a similar analysis of State’s stats under Herb.
This is a good discussion. Best on this site in a while. I agree on now being the best time to hire Archie (even though it will not happen). We don’t know for sure he will do better than Gott but IMO Gott and Herb had a similar floor and ceiling. I think the floor is worst case for Archie and if he hits that same ceiling then we will know it is NCSU’s ceiling and not the coach’s.
By waiting we are looking at a potential worst case scenario. We could end up with a poor talent pool.
By waiting we are looking at a potential worst case scenario. We could end up with a poor talent pool.
I’m not too worried about variations in the coaching talent pool when State starts looking for a new coach. There always seems to be coaches ready to move up or move on. (It’s just not likely that a State alum will be available whenever that next coaching search starts.)
You’re right about apples and oranges. Howland had three final fours and four conference titles at UCLA. In other words, he produced far more than Gott ever has.
Yes, of course. I am not claiming otherwise.
But Howland was fired due to potential NCAA issues over recruiting not due to poor on court performance. I am still interested in knowing of examples that actually match the current situation at State. Maybe there are none, I don’t know.
Archie’s ceiling is unknown but Gott’s has pretty well been defined. If you’re happy with Gott’s results, then you would want to keep him. If you’re not happy with what has produced over his entire career, then you might be ready for a shot at greatness rather than more of the same.
EDIT:
Then there’s a third group that admits that he has done more than enough to suffer one bad year without getting a hot seat (where I think most State fans are).Yes, I am in your third camp, which is why I didn’t agree with rye’s characterization of only the first two camps earlier.
It’s just not likely that a State alum will be available
As has probably been discussed before, I don’t know that having an alum as coach is necessarily a good thing. I can see the attraction in that you have a known quantity to a certain extent. But I think it also creates a different set of expectations and makes objective evaluation that much more difficult.
tau: I think if one is happy with .616 overall, .500 in the league, floating around the bubble most years and maybe winning a couple in the NCAAs, then Gott’s performance is perfectly fine. He’s got 16 years of major conference coaching that suggest that is the coach he is.
If the camp is happy with that, is the camp that views last year as a slip up, and they’re still happy, and that’s a “third” camp, then so be it. I tend to think the two camps are “happy with more time” and “have seen enough.”
Compared to Lowe, yes that is great. Lowe was also an AWFUL hire and was easily identified as such when Jed made it. When the bar is set at the floor (Lowe or Les when he was on probation), then mediocre can look quite good. That’s okay.
My problem with the Gott hire was exactly this. He was the worst type of coach that risk and change averse NC State could hire because he was going to put us in limbo. The day he was hired, it was pretty much assured limbo, unless he catastrophically flamed out. And, here we are, five years in, with some bubbles, a couple of good first weekends, some good players (including an ACC POY) and nothing more to show for it.
You ask about teams that have held their programs to higher standards, and I think it’d be pretty easy to find. Texas (who “doesn’t care about basketball”) fired Barnes last year. His in conference winning percentage was better than Gott’s overall winning percentage. Heck, Gott got fired from his alma mater for the exact same winning percentages that he’s put up here (and he took them to #1 and an Elite 8). Again that’s another school that “doesn’t care about basketball.” That’s two that I can think of in < 2 minutes.
Tubby at Kentucky is another example. But like Herb, he bailed when the water got hot.
Arguing against Gott being let go is silly because the odds of Gott being fired for on-court performance rounds off to zero. AFAICT, The number of people calling for him to be fired (even on message boards) is exceedingly small.
My guess (and only a guess) is that he would have to screw up pretty bad for Yow to suffer through another coaching search so close to retirement (another assumption, but a good one). The open question in my mind is how she would handle another year of missing the NCAAT.
I mean, if he can work his magic and bring in the Turkish dude, I am 100% behind seeing what he can do with THAT combination, and will be back on the optimism train. If not, would I trade him for Arch right now? Yes. Is that offer on the table, or likely to be? No. Interesting theoretical question, though, agreed.
The alumnus question is a simple one. Is said candidate only considering you (or giving you significant extra weight) because of the alma mater connection (ala Jaime Dixon, Huggy Bear)? Then it’s a GOOD thing. Are you only considering the candidate because of the alma mater connection? Then it’s a terrible f-cking idea (Lowe, Drexler, etc.)
See – we’re in the herb doldrums and we don’t even know it…(or maybe we do.)
Next year is critical. As I have indicated before – if he can’t string together a 6 seed or better – we know what we gott.
I think a good comparison is actually Mike Brey. Here’s a guy who after years of coaching, seems to have found his groove. Then again, his program relies upon retention and spreading out the court. Gott’s biggest problem is his hesitancy to use scholies. They have had us very vulnerable the last 2 years. Last year, it didn’t prevent us from having a decent season – this year – well it did.
As for the “why” – I don’t care. Next year, we will have better depth if gott and yow don’t get surprised again.
As for the “why” – I don’t care.
Exactly. You are who your record says you are.
I mean, if he can work his magic and bring in the Turkish dude, I am 100% behind seeing what he can do with THAT combination, and will be back on the optimism train. If not, would I trade him for Arch right now? Yes. Is that offer on the table, or likely to be? No. Interesting theoretical question, though, agreed.
This is a great summary of where I am. Gott isn’t going anywhere now, so I don’t see much point in thinking a lot about that scenario.
If Gott has another down year next year, it will swing me to thinking it is time for a change. The tricky part is defining exactly what a down year is. If we make the NCAA tournament, I don’t think that will be considered a down year, though I know there are many fans who want more than what Gott has delivered in his first four seasons, so they might not agree. Then you have to still consider how much is the buyout and can it be afforded, should Yow lead another search, etc. Multiple possible reasons/excuses to keep him on in that scenario.
People are starting to frequently compare this to the debates over HWSNBN. I was a strong advocate of firing him after year 5 and never bought back in despite his better performances in subsequent seasons; I always thought the Doherty years propped up some of his later success. The thing is, at the time I formed that opinion, we were only 9 years removed from our program being great. And it was reasonable to view the Les years as an unavoidable outcome of the harsh self-imposed sanctions, where a valued alum took one for the university… and then to view the HWSNBN years as a gamble on a high upside (Pitino disciple), unproven coach, which didn’t ultimately pan out. But we could still look back to V and know that those gambles can pay off. I also overestimated how much attractiveness the program still carried at the point.
Today, we are two searches and 15 years further removed from HWSNBN year 5, when I personally swung to the camp that he should be fired. Two searches by two ADs that resulted in flirtations with great coaches that didn’t pan out. I suppose that has lowered my expectations for what I expect in the next search and thus influences how much I think one down year is enough to make a change.
I also think BJD’s post is interesting with reference to the Turkish recruit. If Bam had signed with State, would those who think Gott should go still be of that opinion? If that sways anyone, that illustrates just what a fine line there is between the camps.
Yup, the margins are very fine indeed. And MG will sink or swim based on the fickle whims of hormonal, dumbass teenagers. Tough way to make a living, but it DO pay quite well.
And yes, that is the only way for us to elevate the program under MG, as has been made abundantly clear. We have to recruit to the next level, and have a special season with it that leads to more such recruiting opportunities. It’s that or bust.
One more thought on the coaches that were brought up earlier as comps. Here is my view of why they were fired/pushed out.
Howland – NCAA issues related to recruiting
Smith – issues with AD, asst coach son DUI
Gott – external issues, performance
Barnes – time for a change, performance (after making NCAAT in 16 of 17 seasons)IMO Howland and Smith aren’t great comps, as stated. Gott (Bama) is intuitively a nice comp to Gott (State), but I’m not aware he is replicating the external issues, so not an exact comp… would he have been fired without those issues? Barnes seems like the best comp to me, as it seems to have been for performance.
So how did those programs fare?
Howland succeeded by Alford. Slight upgrade in first year (+3 wins) but already in decline (28 wins -> 22 wins -> 15 wins).
Tubby succeeded by Richard Pitino. Downgrade from NCAA tournament in Tubby’s last season to NIT in Pitino’s first and in rapid decline (25 wins -> 18 wins -> 8 wins).
Gott succeeded by Grant (not counting Pearson interim gig). Upgraded program in seasons 2-4, though not to Gott’s peak level at Bama; out before end of season 6. Avery Johnson’s first season was this year, 18 wins.
Barnes succeeded by Smart. Smart only has one season in the books, not as good as Barnes’ last season; in fact, 16 of Barnes’ 17 seasons were arguably better than Smart’s first season at Texas. But jury is out until we see a couple more seasons.
All situations are unique, three of these guys are still there and could improve, and this is a small sample size. That said, it doesn’t look like it worked out great for the universities that fired these guys, at least not on the court.
Tau – only one coach on your list hasn’t made a final 4.
I’m not following your point. None of those universities have been back to a F4 since firing those coaches. Collectively, those universities have played 14 seasons since the firings, with only 4 NCAAT bids. UCLA made it the S16 twice, though we already knew Howland had a really good team when fired, so that may not be surprising. Otherwise, they have had 12 seasons of meh.
Bama stayed about the same. UCLA stayed about the same, maybe slightly better (until this year, anyway). Minnesota got worse. Texas stayed about the same in year 1, but jury is out.
The comparisons are inexact and each situation is unique. I get that. I was just interested in how other situations that had at least some level of similarity worked out.
Tau – I think that each situation is different. In the case of gott at Bama, howland at UCLA and Barnes @ Texas – the returns had started to diminish.
I don’t think Gott has reached that point yet here. I do think the worst thing gott can do next year is eek into the tourney with a seed somewhere between 7-11. This will fracture the fan base and create apathy
It’s his 6th year – he’ll need to do something that shows he can have a very good season…. Read: top 25 ranking going into or coming out of acc tournament.
Timely snippet from yahoo
Some Pitt fans – and, possibly, some administrators – can point to Dixon’s career trajectory and assert that there was reason for change. The old coaching axiom says that if you’re not getting better, you’re getting worse – and Pitt basketball certainly has not gotten better lately.
In Dixon’s first eight years at Pitt, he averaged 27 wins and 7.5 losses per season. The Panthers made the NCAA tournament every year, and his average NCAA seed was 3.8.
In his past five years, three of them in the Atlantic Coast Conference, Pitt averaged 20.4 wins and 12.6 losses. The Panthers missed the NCAA tourney twice, and in their three Big Dance appearances the average seeding was a 9.
Clearly, the program arc is down.
A decision needs to be made after next season regarding Gottfried and here is why. We are at a crossroads like we have never been before. We are in a situation which can set us up for years to come or remain in the depths of the sea.
– If Roy Williams does win a championship, I believe he retires.
– Mike Koozewooski (I don’t know how you spell it and I’m not looking it up) will be retiring soon.
– Boeheim will be hanging it up soon.
– Larranaga will be retiring to the beaches of Miami.
– Pitino may be gone as soon as the tournament is over.That my friends is 5 of the top 7 coaches in our league (Bennett and Buzz) that could or will be gone in the next 5 years. We can’t f*ck around and I hope the powers that be are thinking about this as well. Virginia Tech definitely had this in mind when they hired Buzz. If Gottfried is the man, sweet. If he is not, pull the trigger. This day and age it’s about results and if everyone is happy with sweet 16’s as a ceiling then obviously I need to find a secondary team to pull for.
– Pitino may be gone as soon as the tournament is over.
It will be interesting who they pursue if this comes to pass. If Archie Miller’s agent is tuned in to this possibility, why the heck would he even consider Pitt…?
Pitino being let go is complete speculation. Pitt would be a step up from Dayton for Archie. Does he want out now? Will he be patient to get the job he wants like Shaka did? That’s what it boils down to.
Mista: I agree with your scenario with respect to timing. The time is now to get the person here who you think is well positioned to break through with all of that transition. Don’t wait 3-5 years flogging a dead horse and then get behind the cycle again.
UVA is well positioned. VT made a great hire in Bzzz. By letting Dixon go to TCU, Pitt obviously feels like they’re doing the same positioning.
Is NC State smart enough or proactive enough to do this? I kind of doubt it. We’re going to be thankful for the “relevency” of a couple of Sweet 16s, stay the course, and get lapped again.
Joe Giglio
?@jwgiglio
Twins Cody and Caleb Martin have decided to transfer from NC State, according to their stepdadUgh. Don’t know how much more of this transferring crap the fanbase can take. Sick of this excrement.
Heads are going to explode when this gets its own post.
(Quote) “…they felt like they didn’t fit into the offense.”Heads are going to explode when this gets its own post.
(Quote) “…they felt like they didn’t fit into the offense.”Mine certainly has. I really liked both of those kids.
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