- This topic has 184 replies, 32 voices, and was last updated 8 years, 7 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
. Remember when we profiled Lon Kruger during our “B List” series after the Calipari thing fell apart 10 years ago?
Wasn’t Turgeon also on that list?
I don’t believe Turgeon showed up until the next search, when he was my #1 with a bullet the entire time (much to the annoyance of the Politburo e-mail distribution list, I’m sure). IIRC, he was the candidate Yow didn’t believe was serious about making a move (and was dead wrong, obviously).
I was the one tasked (because I had Lexis/Nexis through work) with researching Kruger. Initially I thought “ugh, really?” but then after I read up on him, I was like “you know, this guy’s a lot better than I thought he was.”
Still underestimated him, and just thought of Kruger as a decent fallback. Other than Calipari, he was the best coach we MAY HAVE considered by a country mile (yes, including Rick Barnes).
I expect to see us hovering on the bubble next year barring any unexpected defections. With cat, we could be more dangerous.
I’m with rye. Year 2 there were plenty of warning signs. Roster management was a problem that year. i don’t see a coach who’s evolved or improved from his time at bama. There’s an eye test element for me. I learned years ago that there’s playing hard, and there’s getting after it. We don’t get after it. We don’t attack on offense or on defense. When I look at coaches I want, I see schemes and personnel who are relentless. We’ve had some players who embody that, but we don’t as a team, and that starts at the top
And I wouldn’t be surprised if arch is snatched up by Pitt now that Dixon is headed to tcu
Where Archie can coach for 17 years then leave for State 😉
I haven’t been following the Jamie Dixon to TCU rumors:
they quote Pittsburgh Post-Gazette sports reporter Paul Zeise as saying Dixon’s buyout is somewhere between $1.25 and $1.5 million for every remaining year on his contract. That would put the buyout at somewhere between $8.75 million and $10.5 million.
This site is reporting “breaking news” that Dixon to TCU is a done deal
http://www.cardiachill.com/2016/3/21/11278822/jamie-dixon-hired-by-tcu-per-multiple-reports
Pitt has been paying Dixon more than I expected. Wasn’t salary one of the reasons Howland left? Or was that just because UCLA was spending big bucks still looking for a savior?
Back to the NCAAT: ACC guaranteed $30M over the next six years:
^^about for $1.8 Million for the Pack cofers without having to spend a dime…
enough to offset next year’s ticket prices increases, if Dr. Debbie so chooses…I’m sure some one will find fault with that…
and also on the bonus side of the ledger…
RE: Built In Advantage..
Six ACC teams in the Sweet 16 says one thing to a lot of HS juniors out there…
“You want to be the best… come play with and against the best… night in and night out”
If a kid was snubbed by the Blues… then I GOTT a place where he can show them they made a mistake…
——————-
Unless the money is outrageous… which it may well be….
Jamie Dixon to TCU makes no sense what so ever…
See ya! Nice knowing ya! We’ll never hear from you again once you cross the Sabine…… and you thought Pitt was a football school ?
———————
More random thoughts…A Tarheel NC virtually insures Uncle Roy’s retirement…
which coupled with the impending hammer leads to a decade of turmoil in the Hole…Should we or shouldn’t we?
#NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!I think this is likely a get out while the getting is good move by Dixon.
You could do much worse than Kruger.
I am not sure about Turgeon…if he continues his rum that will say a lot. However, I think he’s going up against 1 of the 2 best teams in the tournament.
Turns out Dixon PLAYED at TCU. Partially explains the career suicide. I imagine a truckload of moneys was also involved, though Ollie Purnell can send a cautionary note about how that ends…
Just stirring the pot.
I scanned the Pitt articles this morning and everyone is just airing their own personal laundry list of potential candidates. The insane wish for Sean Miller to return to his alma mater appears frequently. Archie’s name appears on almost every list…along with the coach of nearly every successful mid-major. Obviously it’s really early and it doesn’t look like anything real has leaked out of Pitt yet.
rye what built in advantage? Maybe a couple decades ago but time marches on.
Tractor57: We’re in about the top 25 in almost every metric in basketball OTHER than on the court results:
– Valuation: Forbes does this yearly and we’re typically 20-25. Here’s an aggregate since 2000 from Business Insider (http://www.businessinsider.com/most-dominant-mens-college-basketball-programs-2016-3)
– Coaching salary
– McDonalds AAs landed
– Recruiting aggregate rankings in general
– Attendance: Fowler’s smartest move was LTRs
– Facilities
– We also have Adidas funneling their big time AAU recruits in our direction. Clearly for Adidas we’re in the top three with UCLA and Louisville. Nike funnels to UNC/Duke and Oregon which is why (to me) it makes no strategic sense to sign with Nike.So, everything a coach needs to be successful is there and has been since the ESA opened. They’ll also be paid handsomely to try.
The thing we’ve consistently lacked is coaching. Sorry, but I don’t think we’ve got it now either.
And it comes back to expectations. Mine aren’t to win a national title. To your point, that ship may have sailed forever.
I would expect us to consistently leverage those resources and turn them into a steady top 25 team all year — not win a couple of games in the tournament and sneak into the last ranking. A consistent top 25 team would give us a good chance at a top 4 ACC regular season finish, which would give us the double bye. I’m convinced in the Big East tournament format, that is required to have any real shot at an ACC tournament title.
Do both and you are setting up for a high seed. I ran some math recently on the likelihood of advancing if you are a 6 seed vs an 8 seed based on stats pulled from mcubed.net/ncaab/seeds.shtml:
If you are a 1-6 seed the winning percentage is over 50%. Anything below a 6 and the winning percentages fall off very quickly.A #1 versus an 8/9 wins about 85% of the time. A #1 against a #3/#4 seed still wins about 2/3rds of the time.
Here’s the difference in the path for a #6 versus a #8:
– Game #1 for a #6 is versus a #11, which the #6 wins 2/3rds of the time.
– Game #1 for a #8 is against a #9, which the #8 wins 53% of the time.Let’s say they both advance.
– Game #2 for a #6 is against a #3 83% of the time, which the #6 can win 45% of the time. If there’s an upset (17% chance) the #6 gets to play a #14, which it can win 86% of the time.
– Game #2 for a #8 is against a #1 (because a 1 has never lost to a 16), which it can win 19% of the time.So, the chances of making the Sweet 16 are:
– 6 seed: .66 * (.83*.45 + .17*.86) = .340 = 34%
– 8 seed: .53 * .19 = .10 = 10%
That means the #6 seed is 3.5 times as likely to advance to the Sweet 16 as the number 8. Take it out to the Elite 8 and the odds get even longer for the 8 versus the 6.I’ve not even gone in and looked at the data since the NCAA has started switching to the “pods” where the high seeds effectively get home games. I’d bet those numbers are even tougher for the lower seeds.
Why did I pick #6 and #8? A six seed typically represents a team that has been in the top 25 most of the year and is a high major — what most of us feel is the next reasonable step for NC State basketball if we’re actually progressing. It’s why we focus on the regular season, being ranked, etc.. A #8 is the middling bubble high major who wins a couple and gets in. The odds get even longer for those last 4 in type teams.
So yes, seeds matter and they matter a lot. The regular season matters and it matters a lot. Until NC State improves in the regular season, we don’t really have much hope of doing more than we’ve done in the last 20 years (3 Sweet 16s).
Be ranked in the top 25 all year helps with recruiting far more than a flash in the pan Sweet 16 run at the end of the year. By then, most of the big recruits are committed so that Sweet 16 only gets you in with the late recruits. By being in the top 25 all year, the program is relevant all year, which is key for recruiting. If we’re going to get the recruits in here needed to push over the hump, then this is pretty much the next step.
So, long story short, I don’t think we’re performing up to reasonable expectations given the inputs. I also don’t think that this staff will ever do it. Finally, if we piddle around with this staff and Arch ends up at Pitt, then I will be done with NC State basketball until Yow is gone.
I wouldn’t count on Arch going to Pitt.
First of all, it’s not exactly in a hotbed of high school basketball. Believe it or not, Jamie Dixon is improving his situation in that regard, as the DFW area has developed quite a rich preps hoops region.
Secondly, it’s Pitt, and at best he would always be a mid-ACC team except in special years. The more pessimistic of us might say the same about NC State, except NC State has one thing Pitt doesn’t: a basketball history and a basketball culture across a wide swath of our fanbase. Pitt doesn’t really offer that.
So why leave a good mid-majors situation for one that has a lot of risk and has a low ceiling?
We’re in about the top 25 in almost every metric in basketball OTHER than on the court results:
– Valuation…
– Coaching salary
– McDonalds AAs landed
– Recruiting aggregate rankings in general
– Attendance: Fowler’s smartest move was LTRs
– Facilities
– We also have Adidas funneling their big time AAU recruits in our direction…So, everything a coach needs to be successful is there and has been since the ESA opened.
Solid list here. My list would differ a bit. For example, I think valuation is likely already aggregating some of your other factors and I wouldn’t have that listed. My list would look more like this (no particular order and varying degrees of importance):
1. Salary/compensation for head coach
2. Salary/compensation for staff
3. Budget (e.g., for recruiting)
4. Facilities
5. Tradition/reputation
6. Quality of fan base
7. Conference strength/reputation
8. State of current roster and incoming recruits
9. Ability to recruit (accounts for local talent, AAU connections)
10. Expectations
11. Relationships/impression of key individuals (AD, chancellor, booster club leaders, etc.)
12. Any NCAA problems (recent past or looming)
13. Place to live/cost of livingIf anything, I think the State job looks even better with my list than rye’s list. Yet very few of these factors is any different today than when we went through the last two coaching searches, when we ended up with Lowe and Gott.
So why will this search be different? Because if we push Gott out now, we can get Archie, and he is the next elite level coach?
1. It doesn’t make sense to push Gott out now.
2. No one knows how good Archie will be.
3. No one knows if he would take our job over whatever other opportunities he would have if our job was open. I grant you, I think he would if it was open right now. Then again, I thought Shaka would take it, too.Alpha: I think it’s all about the $$$$, particularly if he feels Pitt is home. This one worries me more that Lousiville actually.
Tau87: I like your list. Lots of overlap with mine.
I would argue some things are different though:
– Post HWSNBN search: The AD was Jed and he was cheap. I doubt we were offering top money and I’m sure he didn’t come across as a boss you’d have high confidence in. HWSNBN had also had recruited so much to system that the roster was in a bit of a mess.– Post Lowe search: Lots of recent tournament misses suggested to the causal observer a weak roster. Tough boss to work for. Still paying at the bottom of the conference.
Now we’re paying near the top of the conference for mediocre results. It’s obvious that the pay will be good. We also have the #1 PG in America enrolled already, and he’s not going to sit out a year. I think it’s the perfect time to make a change.
Granted, as I said earlier, my opinions are possibly tainted because of my thoughts on the hiring process, Gott and my view of year 2. I’d make the move. But, I’m also someone who would rather have a chance at something great and risk something worse than muddle along in the middle.
No one knows how good Archie will be.
True but not relevant because the same issue would exist with anyone that State is looking to hire. If State were looking for a new coach (and we’re not), then Archie already has everything that State would want.
Granted, as I said earlier, my opinions are possibly tainted because of my thoughts on the hiring process, Gott and my view of year 2. I’d make the move. But, I’m also someone who would rather have a chance at something great and risk something worse than muddle along in the middle.
I don’t like your last sentence much. It could be read to imply that anyone who feels Gott should not be fired right now is content to muddle along in the middle rather than take a risk. I don’t see it as the binary choice that presents.
Gott has been here for 5 seasons. Compare those 5 to the previous 5. He has his flaws, but he has obviously elevated the program from what he inherited:
– 4 NCAA bids and 2 Sweet 16s over that span; winning ACCT and NCAAT records
– Signed 11 4 star players, 1 5 star player, and some other solid players to augment (Freeman, Turner, Henderson, Dorn)
– Elevated media profileThen he had 1 down year. Is that really where our expectations are and should be? That one bad year is enough to fire him no matter what happened previously? Even the very best programs don’t hold the bar that high.
Can you name a single other Power 5 program that fired a head coach after a similar run, given no character issues, criminal behavior, or NCAA violations? I don’t know of any comparable examples.
Although the 2012-2013 Bruins won the Pac-12 regular season championship, they quickly bowed out in the first round of the NCAA tournament. On March 25, 2013, three days after being eliminated by 11th seed Minnesota, UCLA fired Howland.[26][27]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UCLA_Bruins_men%27s_basketball#Ben_Howland_era_.282003_.E2.80.93_2013.29On March 25, 2013, Howland was fired by UCLA.[12][13] In his 10 years with the Bruins, he had a .685 winning percentage, went to three consecutive Final Fours, and won four Pac-12 conference titles
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_Howland#UCLATrue but not relevant because the same issue would exist with anyone that State is looking to hire. If State were looking for a new coach (and we’re not), then Archie already has everything that State would want.
There are many posters on this site who are certain they know how good Archie will be. Just ask them.
If Gott retired or were fired today, I would be in favor of hiring Archie. I just don’t think he is the slam dunk that so many make him out to be.
True but not relevant because the same issue would exist with anyone that State is looking to hire. If State were looking for a new coach (and we’re not), then Archie already has everything that State would want.
There are many posters on this site who are certain they know how good Archie will be. Just ask them.
If Gott retired or were fired today, I would be in favor of hiring Archie. I just don’t think he is the slam dunk that so many make him out to be.
Archie’s ceiling is unknown but Gott’s has pretty well been defined. If you’re happy with Gott’s results, then you would want to keep him. If you’re not happy with what has produced over his entire career, then you might be ready for a shot at greatness rather than more of the same.
EDIT:
Then there’s a third group that admits that he has done more than enough to suffer one bad year without getting a hot seat (where I think most State fans are).The discussion about Gott is really the Great Herb Debate all over again with one major exception. 1.21 JW did a great job outlining the deficiencies of Gott’s defensive “strategies” over his entire career. We never had a similar analysis of State’s stats under Herb.
Although the 2012-2013 Bruins won the Pac-12 regular season championship, they quickly bowed out in the first round of the NCAA tournament. On March 25, 2013, three days after being eliminated by 11th seed Minnesota, UCLA fired Howland.[26][27]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UCLA_Bruins_men%27s_basketball#Ben_Howland_era_.282003_.E2.80.93_2013.29On March 25, 2013, Howland was fired by UCLA.[12][13] In his 10 years with the Bruins, he had a .685 winning percentage, went to three consecutive Final Fours, and won four Pac-12 conference titles
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben_Howland#UCLAThere are some differences.
Howland’s great four year run was 2005-06 to 2008-09. 3 Final Fours in that span. Then in 2009-2010, they didn’t fire him when he went 14-18. They were 23-11 and made the tournament in 2010-11, then they were 19-14 in 2011-12 and missed it again but didn’t fire him. Then the season you referenced above.
But that was the season that Howland brought in Shabazz Muhammad and Kyle Anderson, and made some questionable hire(s) of assistant coaches. There was an NCAA investigation and a lot of smoke around the program for that entire season.
Overall, apples and oranges IMO.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.
