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Great article. This is why I would pay for access to SFN. One interesting correlation I was thinking was how the backcourt seems to influence more than their “share” of the four factors. I know people have said it’s a guards game these days, but I wonder if the stats actually back that up.
Obviously, the eFG% and TO% probably rely on guard play more on both sides of the ball (given the 3pt influence). But I wonder how much efficient guard play influences how quickly a team gets into the bonus? Seems to me this could be how quality guard play really matters. Interesting stuff. Looking forward to more. Thanks!
Jigsie. Pretty work, but I’m waiting for the complete installment before commenting with coherence.
Statiscally speaking for now, one is much more likely to be mauled to death by a puma than a tabby.
The statistics presented compare ratings of the champions. But to be fair, is it not possible that the non-champions had coaches that also stressed efficient offense and defense? In other words, there are some intangibles that cannot be measured (Cinderellas excluded). Sometimes one team is just luckier than the opposition (Again, Cinderellas excluded).
If you’re consistently winning, luck has nothing to do with it.
The statistics presented compare ratings of the champions. But to be fair, is it not possible that the non-champions had coaches that also stressed efficient offense and defense? In other words, there are some intangibles that cannot be measured (Cinderellas excluded). Sometimes one team is just luckier than the opposition (Again, Cinderellas excluded).
The way I view it is that these values are great indicators and even predictors, but far from ‘catch all’.
I think I stated very clearly several times in the article that nothing is absolute and a 25% chance of winning is far from guaranteed. I even pointed out that those with a +30 ODS aren’t perfect but a 63% of winning it all is better than relying on “luck”.
Luck is when preparation meets opportunity. The teams with high ODS’ have prepared and performed throughout the season to put themselves in the best position to win when the opportunity has presented itself.
Jigs – as always great stuff. Really liked the differentiator info.
It highlights why some of us were so down in the dumps. What I do love about gott’s last 2 teams is that they take care of the ball. I’d say, defensive positioning is key for us…that’s, when fouls, offensive rebounds and wide-ass open 3s kill us.
Jigsie. Pretty work, but I’m waiting for the complete installment before commenting with coherence.
Statiscally speaking for now, one is much more likely to be mauled to death by a puma than a tabby.
I am finally fluent in cowdogese.
I understood your pointJigsie. Pretty work, but I’m waiting for the complete installment before commenting with coherence.
Statiscally speaking for now, one is much more likely to be mauled to death by a puma than a tabby.
I am finally fluent in cowdogese.
I understood your pointYou poor, poor man.
There’s no coming back from that you know?Great analysis. But if I may, I’d like to show another common thread that these teams share
2002- MD 1st rd picks: Juan Dixon, Chris Wilcox
2003- SYR 1st rd picks: Carmelo Anthony(#3 overall),Hakim Warrick
2004- UCONN 1st rd picks: Emeka Okafor(#1 overall), Ben Gordon(#3 overall), Josh Boone, Marcus Williams, Charlie Villanueva
2005- UNC 1st rd picks: Ray Felton, Sean May, Rashad McCants, Marvin Williams
2006-2007 Fla 1st rd picks: Joakim Noah,Ronnie Brewer, Al Horford (Only team to ever have 3 players selected in the first 9 picks)
2008- KU 1st rd picks: Mario Chalmers, Darrell Arthur, Cole Aldrich
2009- UNC 1st rd picks: Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, Ed Davis, Tyler Zeller
2010- Duke 1st rd picks: Mason Plumlee, Miles Plumlee, Nolan Smith
2011- UCONN 1st rd picks: Kemba Walker, Jeremy Lamb
2012- Kentucky 1st rd picks: Anthony Davis(#1 overall), Michael Kidd Gilchrist(#2 overall), Terrence Jones, Marquis Teague
2013- L’Ville 1st rd picks: Gorgui Deing
2014- UCONN 1st rd picks: Shabazz NapierMost of these teams have multiple next level players on the court. Now of course all of these players don’t pan out in he NBA, but getting the scouts to take you in the first round says you were a top level college player. Since 1992 we have had exactly 4 players drafted in the first round and only two drafted in the 2nd. TJ Warren was far and away the most complete NBA ready player we’ve had in a long while, but to be in the discussion for national titles we are gonna need at least two and possibly 3 TJ Warrens on our roster in the same year. Gottfried is a good recruiter but we need to see some guys like Barber, Abu, and the Martins develop into those type of players before we can realistically say an NC State team is capable of winning the tournament.
I never expected UNLV to win the NCAAT….but then they had Stacey Augmon and Larry Johnson along with Greg Anthony at the same time.
Gottfried is a good recruiter but we need to see some guys like Barber, Abu, and the Martins develop into those type of players before we can realistically say an NC State team is capable of winning the tournament.
Not sure about 1st round picks, but from our current team, I expect Anya to play in the NBA for sure. I think Barber has a good chance, Lacey has a slim chance, and it’s too early to tell for Abu and the Martins. We could look back on this team in a few years and see that it had as many as 6 NBA players.
I never expected UNLV to win the NCAAT….but then they had Stacey Augmon and Larry Johnson along with Greg Anthony at the same time.
I still can’t believe they didn’t win 2.
Great analysis. But if I may, I’d like to show another common thread that these teams share
I can certainly appreciate Jiga’s analysis but Lumpy’s post really hit home on how important great players are to winning a championship. Taking it a step further, the ’83 team had Thurl Bailey, a long time great career in the NBA. I know Lowe played a few years also. I cannot remember if Lo, Whitt, and Cozell played in the NBA, but I do believe they all played overseas successfully. And even Gannon did all right using his mouth:} The ’74 team, DT speaks for himself. Some of you can remember better than me, but I know Stoddard played MLB, and I believe Burleson and Towe both played in the NBA. Don’t know about Rivers. But it does show what great players we had in our championship years as well as the ones listed by Lumpy in recent years.
Do we have that now? Time will tell. I doubt anyone saw Thurl Bailey developing into the player he was or having the NBA career he did during his first two years or even his junior season at State. Guggs is another example of that. With some players it is obvious how good they are and they don’t usually stay around long anymore, but others develop into great players that can win you a championship. Let’s hope that’s what we GOTT.
To be honest Towe was a throw in to get Thompson. He was at best a journeyman and at worst only a way to increase the odds of signing Thompson.
Ok, you made me look it up. Towe was drafted 3rd round by Denver (ABA) and by the Atlanta Hawks in the 4th round. He played for two years with Thompson in Denver, the first in the ABA and the second in the NBA. I have read the story about Sloan not wanting him because of his height, but he proved his worth and turned out to be a great point guard. He and Thompson practically invented the alley oop. We could not have won the championship without him.
Great analysis. But if I may, I’d like to show another common thread that these teams share
2002- MD 1st rd picks: Juan Dixon, Chris Wilcox
2003- SYR 1st rd picks: Carmelo Anthony(#3 overall),Hakim Warrick
2004- UCONN 1st rd picks: Emeka Okafor(#1 overall), Ben Gordon(#3 overall), Josh Boone, Marcus Williams, Charlie Villanueva
2005- UNC 1st rd picks: Ray Felton, Sean May, Rashad McCants, Marvin Williams
2006-2007 Fla 1st rd picks: Joakim Noah,Ronnie Brewer, Al Horford (Only team to ever have 3 players selected in the first 9 picks)
2008- KU 1st rd picks: Mario Chalmers, Darrell Arthur, Cole Aldrich
2009- UNC 1st rd picks: Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, Ed Davis, Tyler Zeller
2010- Duke 1st rd picks: Mason Plumlee, Miles Plumlee, Nolan Smith
2011- UCONN 1st rd picks: Kemba Walker, Jeremy Lamb
2012- Kentucky 1st rd picks: Anthony Davis(#1 overall), Michael Kidd Gilchrist(#2 overall), Terrence Jones, Marquis Teague
2013- L’Ville 1st rd picks: Gorgui Deing
2014- UCONN 1st rd picks: Shabazz NapierMost of these teams have multiple next level players on the court. Now of course all of these players don’t pan out in he NBA, but getting the scouts to take you in the first round says you were a top level college player. Since 1992 we have had exactly 4 players drafted in the first round and only two drafted in the 2nd. TJ Warren was far and away the most complete NBA ready player we’ve had in a long while, but to be in the discussion for national titles we are gonna need at least two and possibly 3 TJ Warrens on our roster in the same year. Gottfried is a good recruiter but we need to see some guys like Barber, Abu, and the Martins develop into those type of players before we can realistically say an NC State team is capable of winning the tournament.
I’ve wanted to address this for several days but haven’t had the time. While you make a fair point about talent level and how each of those national title teams had NBA first round talent on their teams I need to point a few things out.
1. Most of the years you have who was drafted in the first round the same year they won the national title but in 2006 you group it together with 2007. In fact in 2006 no one on Florida’s national championship was drafted in the first round, only in 2007. You also have 3 players from Duke in 2010 when in fact no one was drafted in the first round of the NBA that season as well, those players were drafted 1 and 2 years later. So while they technically were future NBA first round draft picks they weren’t the season they won the title, same for 2006.
2. The way you present the information it comes across as they were the only team or the most loaded team with first round draft picks for each national champion when in fact only 2 teams in the 13 years did the national champions have the most first round draft picks that season and only 5 teams were tied with the most picks. Click here for a table containing a breakdown of seasons and draft picks.
3. When you look at the table you’ll see that where talent is a good thing to have, it can provide you with a higher ceiling, that’s all it does. What you do with that talent in college, production, is the only thing that matters for winning a college national championship, not what an NBA scout thinks you have potential for in the NBA.
4. You say NC State must have 2 or 3 future NBA players on the team at the same time and that’s a false assumption, IF you have the right coach. There have been 6 teams in the last 13 seasons that won the national title and only had at most 1 player drafted in the first round that same season. In fact having 5 draft picks in 2010 didn’t help Kentucky or 4 draft picks in 2012 for UNC.
Right on, Jiga. I didn’t mean to say that all those guys came out the same year, although in the case of Florida the reason no one was drafted in ’06 was that they all stuck around to defend the title in ’07 IIRC.
What I was trying to illustrate was that, most of the time, these teams have a lot of NBA ready (at least in scouts eyes) talent to help them go deep in the tournament. They may have only had one player get drafted THAT season, but they are consistently developing guys who go to the NBA. State is not, or rather has not up to this point with a few exceptions.
You are correct, draft picks aren’t everything. But teams that are consistently developing guys that go to the NBA are a lot more common in the final four than teams that don’t. Regardless, your research is excellent and I am totally using ODS when filling out my big money brackets this year, so big thanks for that.
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