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Bill’s EPI is BS. There are too many people examining the selection results to be able to pull that trick off.
Statistics wizards behind the Dance Card show that decisions can be predicted based on only 6 factors.
Most of the WTF decisions that we’ve looked at over the years that I’ve been doing these go to mid-majors, not the big schools.
Couple of thoughts…
1. No real meaningful differences between last 4-6 under consideration
2. Selection committee definitely takes punitive measures against horrible schedules. Saw Seth’s VT team get hosed after season much like ours and a late Duke win in the ACC T a few years ago. Fair or not, its the way things are.
3. Count me as one who feels Vitale and K’s support mattered.
4. TJW mattered. Best offensive player in the country. Potential “Danny Manning” type story line.
5. I also think SFN’s tweets and Pack fan interest matters. We are a very vocal fanbase (and it matters).
6. True case to me made that not for 3 heartbreaking 1 point losses, each with questionable calls going against in the the last minutes, we would have had 11 ACC wins and already been a lock.Cowdog, where did watch racing growing up? Finger Lakes, Fort Erie, Belmont? I knew we both grew up in Upstate NY but we have the horse racing thing too. My dad trained horses for a while, as did my brother. I worked around quite a bit, and was an assistant trainer to Nick Zito in ’98-’99 (right after graduating from State). That year we had a record 5 horses run in the Derby (none came close).
The fact that SMU was ranked not only meant nil to the committee, it also shows that writers and team trainers know eff-all about how to effectively rank the teams.
There will ALWAYS be a B1G bias, as the midwestern sportswriters apparently only fap to their own teams while they are writing their stories and making their votes. Yes, Michigan, Mich State and Wiscy are very good. A lot of those other teams in the B1G are not quite as impressive as they are made out to be IMO.
Same for the SEC in football. Reall, the dominance of the SEC’s middle tier in the top 20 would not be quite as impressive if they played meaningful OOC schedules.
The basketball selection committee, however, uses a much more analytical and objective approach and it leads to this, albeit with the addition of people who have learned about 97.5% of how things are done by inference. Lunardi, Pomeroy and others think their formula is foolproof, and when they are made to look like fools, they act like children.
Goodman is a special case of overall dumbassery and willful ignorance that makes me wonder how anyone takes him seriously. Somehow he has ingratiated himself into a media cicle-jerk where he appears to be an expert but is in fact only a provocateur…at best.
Excuse me but does anyone else not see us winning a couple of games and making the selection committee look good? We just finished among the final 4 of the ACC. Call us a 12 if you want but we’re playing better than that…at the moment.
How many TA&M, or Texas fans gonna watch One SMU basketball game…
( compared to how many Dookies and TarHoles will watch most ALL of our games )…The real question is how many A&M or Texas fans are gonna watch an A&M or Texas basketball game? Unless you’ve lived here you have no clue. There will be a lot of people in Dallas who will drive by Jerry World during the Final Four and wonder what the Cowboys have going on to put so many cars in the parking lot.
As for the post, it confirmed my much less in depth analysis on Saturday that said none of the bubble teams were anybetter or worse than we were. We are lucky the committee wanted Anya on the 4 X 100 relay anchor leg.
There were qualitative factors involved that are unexplained. Residuals for you statisticians.
We are better to watch, have ACC POY, had coaching support, and most importantly played extremely well in the tourney. Your job is in part to promote the tourney after all….so uh, get the hottest teams in.
State plays 4 freshman and 2 sophomore which explains some of the earlier close losses. They are much improved and were the best remaining team to play well in the dance.
Or not. Seriously doubt Herb or Sid would have received the bid in the same situation.
Here’s another theory, Gottfried’s broadcast of our case went viral. Coach K, an utterly nice guy or whatever, rebroadcasted it. That coupled with clear, public shafting by officials in the UNC and Syracuse games, sealed the deal on interpreting the close finish. I did say it was a theory (albeit a social one).
And another thing, you guys think that we need to break free of the ACC? Well, every time we make the NCAA-T, we *do*.
There were qualitative factors involved that are unexplained. Residuals for you statisticians.
… “unexplained” by the algorithms…
but easily explained by…
EPI !
And as long as people sit on the Committee and make selections instead of letting the computer just crunch the numbers and then letting the numbers fall where they may… the will always be some version of an EPI.
#NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!Interesting comments from Shaka Smart and Cronin:
“You kind of want to stand up for your league,” he said, “… a lot of this league solidarity, like a Duke guy standing up for N.C. State, that’s all self-serving too. Let’s be honest. ‘Our league is great because it’s our league.’ It’s a lot of that. Let’s just have a level of respect for each other and let’s respect the nine people on the selection committee and the work they put into to picking the 68 teams.”
“The American conference was grossly disrespected by the committee,” Cronin said. “It’s not personal. I’m not mad. It’s just a fact.
“I mean, Louisville’s a 4 seed?” Cronin added before laughing. “Are you kidding me? Is that a joke? Did anybody watch them play? They’re the defending national champs.”
Some things to file away for comparing future bubble teams…
Brett Friedlander
Embattled Wake Forest AD Wellman makes some new friends at N.C. StateSunday night, in a conference call about an hour after the announcement of the field, Wellman explained the committee’s reasoning behind State’s selection over several other bubble teams – including SMU and its media darling of a coach, Larry Brown.
“We tried to identify differentiators, things that are either very positive or negative about certain teams,” Wellman said “The positive factor for N.C. State was that they had three wins against top 50 teams away from home.
“Not only did they beat those top 50 teams (Tennessee, Pittsburgh and Syracuse), but they did it on the road. Road wins against top 50 teams are really, really impressive to the committee. That probably was the one factor that was most prominent.”
According to Wellman, scheduling was the deciding factor between State as the last team in at 21-13 and SMU as the last team out at 23-9.
“In SMU’s case, their downfall, their weakness, was their schedule,” Wellman said. “Their non-conference strength of schedule was ranked 302nd. It was one of the worst non-conference strength of schedules. Their overall strength of schedule ranked 129. That would have been, by far, the worst at-large strength of schedule going into the tournament. The next worst at large strength of schedule was 91.”
I don’t think we leap over SMU or Florida State if say, they were 10-15 RPI slots in front of us. But they weren’t. The overall resumes were very close, so they had to look at secondary factors, and we come out ahead on all of those.
Plus, to the extent FSU and NC State were in the same discussion…surely Wellman would offer his opinion, having seen both this season, as to which team was better. We also would be the team more likely to do something interesting in the NCAAT (ie, higher ceiling).
… So is Wellmans explanation…. the Committee’s plausible answer for it’s actions or the reason ?
To put that another way…
Did the Committee members have well formed preconceived notions about who they wanted to select and who they didn’t want to select before they sat down… and if so, to what extent was the ‘sit down’ just a matter of finding good answers to justify their prior thinkng?
#NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!I really appreciate people adding links and quotes in the comments. Believe it or not, I go back to this type of entry to see if there is anything to change or some way to improve a similar entry in the future. My goal has always been to understand the philosophy/technique used by the selection committee…as opposed to the idiocy spewed by far too many in the media.
From the Friedlander article:
According to Wellman, scheduling was the deciding factor between State as the last team in at 21-13 and SMU as the [first] team out at 23-9.
I find it truly amazing that the issue of OOC scheduling is still an open topic…or a revelation to some. Exactly how many times do you have to watch some team get burnt before you move away from the fire?
Here’s my song dedication to Jay Bilas
Gott gets scheduling:
“You’ve got to choose to play a difficult nonconference schedule,” Gottfried said. “Some teams didn’t, and that’s their choice.
“That message has been said to us, loud and clear, over and over again.”
http://m.charlotteobserver.com/?cu=spreed%3A%2F16408957%2F29567964
Tangential to the issue of SOS, might the push for higher SOS have a negative effect on overall parity?
What’s the impetus for a player to go to a small school that none of the big boys will schedule?
They take into account how much of your scheduling you can reasonably control (to protect the little guys). But there’s NO F-ING WAY you end up with a 250-300 OOC schedule by accident, or because “nobody will play you.”
With Larry Brown’s connections, he could surely schedule a trip to the Nose Dome, Phog, PauleyP… anywhere. He didn’t want to go there this year and he paid the price. It’s as simple as picking up the phone.
I really think he was trying to schedule for the NIT to build up some buzz for being a “program on the rise.” Probably never dreamed they’d be dance-worthy. And it bit him, hard.
I still has the sads that the Fighten Sendeks weren’t similarly punished. They have NO excuse for NIT-aspiration scheduling, and he’s in what, Year Eight? He’s just a freaking wuss.
They take into account how much of your scheduling you can reasonably control (to protect the little guys). But there’s NO F-ING WAY you end up with a 250-300 OOC schedule by accident, or because “nobody will play you.”
“No one would play us”
THat was always the hue and cry of the Sendek clan. I think it is safe to say that is what he wanted.I made a major addition to the bottom of the blog entry to capture some of the points discussed here and in the forums. I added discussion on
– BYU and bad losses
– Iowa and stumbling down the stretch
– NCSU vs UVA
– Louisville and UVA seedingI must say I (and many others) continue to not understand why Lville is a 4 seed, whilst UVA garnered a 1. They both did nothing out of conference, but UVA was awarded.
RPIs were significantly different. I also think they liked the idea of a possible Louisville/UK Sweet Sixteen matchup. Plus, Louisville would play their regionals in Indy, which is a HUGE advantage. They refer to the Louisville metro area as “Kentuckiana.”
Yet another way Wichita State REALLY took it in the ass from the committee. Guess that’s what happens when you piss off as many ADs as Marshall does/has.
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