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These conference updates are always a lot more fun after a win. So let’s get right to the conference summary table:
[See the full post at: ACC Update]I was gonna put up a check-in later today – thanks for saving me some work! 😉
And my prediction is not even gonna come close hahaha.
Good work as always.
Syracuse’s road just got a bit harder with starter McCullough going down…6-10 PF average 28 mins, 9 points, and 7 rebounds. For a team who has struggled to score this season…losing anyone contributing is not a good thing. McCullough will also impact their D…had 33 blocks this year.
They will hover around bubble until last 7 games of conference. Originally, I was envious of their schedule backloaded vs front loaded with younger team, but win vs Duke really changes everything.
Finishing with a boat load of road games makes the Duke win even more important. The confidence combined with the fact that getting a top 15 win on the road late would be really tough to do will hopefully allow the guys to relax and stay aggressive.
It’s performance review time at work, so if you did a review on Gott every year, he’d score highest in the area of scheduling. The man knows what he’s doing in that department for sure. If we beat UNC-CH we can start the conversations about seeding for the dance. I haven’t watched anybody in the ACC that we haven’t played. I’ll be interested to see if the line between the haves and the have nots stays where it is.
Under Gott we’ve historically followed up a big win with a loss. So if that were to be avoided on Wednesday, its not a stretch to say the program is more clearly moving in the right direction. Of course, there are loads of roads games left in the season for our relatively inexperienced group (75% of next 12 games?). Just need to stay fearless.
I don’t see how we can be ahead of Notre Dame at this point. They beat Purdue by over 30 and we lost an ugly one to the Boilers. Notre Dame, 15-2, also won in Chapel Hill. State has yet to win away from home and will need more than just a Duke win at home to overcome the ugly losses to Wofford and Cincinnati, especially if Duke turns out to be overrated.
We’re playing really well now, and I like our chances tomorrow night, but until we start winning away from home, we’re a bubble team. And speaking of bubbles, put Georgia Tech in the “out” column. That program is going nowhere under Gregory.
Be careful Jeremy, I expressed a similar opinion a while back and was asked to prove it with data or shut the hell up. My comments were along the lines of not handling success well. Anyway, I still have that opinion despite not having our historical won/loss data at the forefront of my mind. Nonetheless, I agree with you. And I’m actually glad it’s the Cheats coming to town tomorrow and not Va Tech. I don’t think it will matter that we just flushed dook. We will not lay an egg tomorrow. Gott’s energy won’t be called upon to motivate our guys. He will simply need to out coach the king of the cheaters, good o’ Roy Cheatin Williams. GO PACK!!!!!!!!!!
Are let down losses exclusively NCSU’s MO? I think it is safe to say let down losses following a big win (i.e. an unranked team beating a top 10 team) are fairly common for every coach/program that is not considered one of the elite. I remember a loss @ Maryland after a big win against Duke and a loss @ UVA after a big win over UNC; hindsight being what it is I wouldn’t consider those WTF losses. I agree with JG, you don’t need a great motivator to get you ready for your biggest rival. As JH said, a validation win over UNC will be another positive step in the program’s evolution.
And my prediction is not even gonna come close hahaha.
Note that I remembered who had made the prediction and was trying to protect the identity of the “not so innocent”. While I’m in full disclosure mode…I was pretty sure what would happen in the early part of the ACC schedule, but haven’t ever looked at what happens over the course of the entire conference schedule. Hopefully, it will be interesting to watch.
Great work, as always from VaWolf!
Add to it this view of the entire conference and I think there is a lot of great information in this thread.
#4B North Carolina State Wolfpack (12-5, 3-1) RPI: 32 SOS: 7
The battle for #4 will occur on Wednesday night when NC St. hosts the arch-rival Tar Heels. UNC’s SOS is 6th. So they are neck and neck in terms of that metric. UNC has one less loss. Both sported signature wins last weekend with NC St. handily defeating Duke, and UNC pulling out the win vs Louisville. A hat tip to our own Mike McDaniel who predicted the NC State upset over the Blue Devils.
NC State made the NCAA tournament via the new-fangled play-in system where extra 10 seeds are added to the at-large pool. It took them 22 wins. Coach Mark Gottfried has them well on their way to a similar campaign assuming there are no health concerns. It is a veteran led team with starting junior PG Trevor Lacey on his way to earning all-league honors (I have him pegged for 2nd team right now), and senior Ralston Turner offering steady perimeter production as well. Sophomore guard Anthony Barber is rounding into a nice 3rd option, and allows Lacey to play off the ball some and focus on scoring.
On the inside, the ‘Pack has a rotation of guys earning solid minutes, but none they rely on too heavily. Sophomore Beejay Anya is averaging an incredible 3.1 blocks per game in just under 20 minutes per contest. His having lost some 65 pounds in the offseason has increased his mobility and allowed him to play for longer stretches. If he can develop some hands to go with the position his posterior earns him on the block, he could develop into a double digit scorer at some point, even if it isn’t this year.
NC State has a very good chance of getting to the turn at 6-3 in the league. The second half of the league schedule also looks like it could be converted into a 6-3 record. At 12-6, the Wolfpack would be shoo-ins for a top five seed. They have just one questionable loss (Wofford); the other losses were to West Virginia, Cincinnati, UVA, and @ Purdue. They now have their signature win, having gotten scorching hot this past Sunday vs Duke. A couple more of those head-to-head wins against top tier ACC squads like Notre Dame, UNC, Louisville, or Syracuse, and they could be looking at a bye in the ACC tournament.
This Week: North Carolina (Weds) , @Florida St (Sat)
Mobility: They could shoot all the way up into the #2 spot if they win both games and Louisville beats Duke. This is a team that seems to know what it can and cannot do, and plays within those constraints. Credit the coaching staff and the heady leadership of Trevor Lacey for the pack staying within themselves.
#4A North Carolina Tar Heels (12-4, 2-1) RPI: 14 SOS: 6
Marcus Paige is a gamer. Ever since PJ Hairston was dismissed by Coach Roy Williams last year for repeated off-court incidents, Paige has come on strong and has been responsible for several W’s the Heels earned in the closing moments. At this point, I am not sure there is a more proven crunch-time player in the conference. His game winner on Saturday against a Louisville backcourt that is becoming known for it’s on-ball defensive tenacity was just one more line item for the bio. As an undersized junior, his heart is rarely paralleled by his opponents.
The Tar Heels are ranked 301st in 3-point makes per game. They simply do not shoot it well. They crash the offensive glass though, and now that teams are measuring which of their players miss with the best efficiency, Paige is clearly among the leaders. Simply meaning that he draws a crowd on his forays to the cup, leaving his rebounders without a body on them, so they can convert the putbacks with ease.
Roy Williams doesn’t hesitate to use his bench either. Every player has utility, whether its simply to foul, or for a given match-up’s sake. On Saturday, Pitino played three of his guys (Jones, Rozier, Harrell) 37 minutes or more; of all the Tar Heels only Paige played 30 minutes or more, and it was exactly 30 minutes. It was eye-opening to watch them bully the Cards, outrebounding them 40-30, and 17-9 on the offensive end.
The Tar Heels haven’t looked like world-beaters but they don’t look likely to be beaten by many in the world either. If I had to compare them to a Heavyweight boxer, they’d be Ken Norton. Ready to go 15 rounds, hit as hard as anybody in the game, but eventually going to lose some of the judges’ love due to a lack of panache and charisma.
This Week: @ NC St (Weds), Virginia Tech (Sunday night game of the week! And what a game it’ll be as UNC will sport four guys at 6’9? or taller to VT’s one lone freshman Satchel Pierce, if Joey Van Zegeren remains suspended. Has a team ever been held to single digit rebounds before?)
Mobility: With a pair of wins, they will at least lock down this four spot by themselves for the week. Cracking the top three will be difficult this year.
SI’s Bubble Analysis has us as “in the mix” in this article. I’m guessing they are trying to project how things will be and not putting us as “lock” yet. That’s fine. But, if the article were to be written from the perspective of “if the tournament started today” then we would definitely be a lock.
North Carolina State (12-5, RPI: 32, SOS: 7) — The Wolfpack dealt Duke its first loss of the season, and scored themselves a major differentiating win in the process. Fellow bubble teams are going to be hard pressed to show off as equally impressive a win. N.C. State is now 5-4 against the top 50 and has only one loss — at Purdue — outside the top 100.
I also think the author meant that we are 5-4 vs the TOP 100, not the top 50. If we had 5 wins vs the Top 50 we would absolutely be a lock.
In relation to the previous post…we tweeted this a couple of day ago:
NC State now sits ~#31 in the RPI having played the 7th toughest SOS in America. Currently has 4 wins over Top 100 teams. #NCAAT
— statefansnation (@statefansnation) January 12, 2015
Not necessarily for the NCAAT conversation, but I’m increasingly impressed by Wake. Kinda wishing our December game with them had been the one in W-S.
13OT
Simple reason N.C. State is above ND…7th SOS vs 140th SOS (anchored down by a pitiful OOC schedule…as noted above).
Gott has become an absolute pro with OOC scheduling…
^^^^Jerry Palm of CBS had us as pretty much the last team in the field on his latest bracket. That’s fine, but State’s current resume is more indicative of being solidly on the 10 or 11 lines. A complete lack of road/neutral victories, but a great rpi number backed by a signature win.
Other current ‘bubble’ teams simply cannot match State’s rpi (yay scheduling) or signature victory. A few can’t match 4 top 100 victories yet.
It means absolutely nothing at this point, but it is fun to talk about (for me, at least) 🙂
Agree on Wake, they seem to have improved drastically the past few weeks. Were down big to Syracuse early tonight but have rallied.
Entertaining game in the Carrier Dome … tough loss for Wake. Missing the front end of 1-and-1’s never helps.
Duke having getting all they can handle once again tonight vs. Miami
Okafor got some negative body language right now. DaU by 11.
Who’s the team captain(s)? I know this is always important to K and his teams. I’m guessing Cook has to be one since he’s a senior?
I’m guessing regardless of the outcome tonight that K puts an enormous amount of pressure on the team captains to whip the freshmen into shape quickly.
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