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Last night might not turn the season around, but boy does it feel good for now.
[See the full post at: ACC BB Update]They missed some shots but I felt we were more active and therefore better. They still got open a bunch. Rebounding stood out, have not seen the stats. Honestly all things considered the difference was Kapita and Smith just being clutch a handful of times.
Kapita is active around the rim like no one else, sometimes overzealously. Clearly one of the “motors” of this team that includes DSJ, Rowan, Markell. We’ll never be a great, even “good” defense team under Gott, but the energy guys with their individual talents helps address gaps.
We need more penetration and pounding the paint, while albeit will be more difficult against big, athletic teams like Miami, but we shouldn’t shy away. We saw this last year too, long, missed jump shots that turn into breakouts, essentially 4-5 point swings.
An important area of improvement? Patience + taking care of the ball. We regularly hit 15 turnovers a game. Against Duke? Under 10. The book on us thus far is “disrupt the offense and they are cooked”. And the longer you have the ball, the more they work on defense, and the less opportunities they have to score. Hopefully they are getting the message on this and can apply this during even the most stressful situations (opposing teams “runs”).
I need some basic RPI instruction. How can State’s RPI be 72 and Miami’s 75 when our schedule strength is much stronger and we’ve won the same percentage of games played?
I need some basic RPI instruction. How can State’s RPI be 72 and Miami’s 75 when our schedule strength is much stronger and we’ve won the same percentage of games played?
The formula was changed during the era of the Great Herb Debate to use adjusted winning percentage:
Home win/Road loss = 0.7
Neutral win/loss = 1.0
Road win/home loss = 1.4Also don’t forget that all of the numbers are rankings, not the calculated numbers. Sometimes there is a big gap between one ranking and the next and sometimes the difference is in the fourth decimal place.
So I expect your answer is somewhere between those two facts.
The NCAA has the real numbers through last nights games.
http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-rpiState is 1-4 on the road; Miami is 2-2
State is 11-2 at home; Miami is 8-1Thus Miami wins on adjusted winning percentage in both categories. State is 1/2 game ahead on neutral -> 2-1 vs 2-2
PS – As I expected, it looks like CBS’s numbers are more accurate than ESPNs. Note that I will continue to use ESPN because their format makes it much quicker to build the tables and update the trend graphs.
VAWOLF82 – Thanks for your patience but I am still struggling. Your above link to the NCAA RPI calculations shows NC State’s RPI at 60. ESPN’s current calculation puts it at 56. I can see where different sites can vary this much but the first chart in your entry reflects our RPI at 72. I must be missing something.
Ignore our rpi for now.
If we win 6 out of next 10, we will be in. Win 5 out of 10 and we go I to the tourney on the bubble with work to do.
The NCAA has given hints it is going to start looking at more sophistimicated data….Like Kenpom and sagarin.
If we win 6 out of next 10 every metric will be fine. Else, we better have one heck of an ACC tournament.
VAWOLF82 – Thanks for your patience but I am still struggling. Your above link to the NCAA RPI calculations shows NC State’s RPI at 60. ESPN’s current calculation puts it at 56. I can see where different sites can vary this much but the first chart in your entry reflects our RPI at 72. I must be missing something.
Look at note under RPI table. Values through Sunday’s games to keep everyone on an even footing. Updated values shown on graphs for Duke and State to show effect of Monday’s game.
Ignore our rpi for now.
I used to fixate on States RPI. Now I pay much more attention to our opponents RPI…looking for good wins and bad losses. But as chop says, we can just watch the ACC record. 9-9 and State’s in.
Fascinating scores tonight…..
Louisville totally embarrasses (OK, we HAVE been there) Pitt. 106 – 51 OUCH….
UVA triumphs over Notre Dame 71 – 54
WFU falls to the Orange of Cuse. Too much celebration….81 – 76
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/scoreboard/_/group/2
BUT, the game of the NIGHT. Ricky Ticky Barnes (a Hickory native) pulls out a win over Cal of Kentucky (#4) 82 – 80. Reminded me of a game that I saw last night and also watched the last 5 minutes again tonight.
BUT, #1 Villanova gets taken out by unranked Marquette. 74 – 72…
And Billy Self of KU (#2) gets whipped by #18 WVU….85 – 69
All in all, a real shakeup of the top 3 out of 4 teams.
Yes Vawolf – I was hoping we wouldn’t have to pay attention to the bubble this year, but alas, it looks like if we make the tournament, it will come down to the last week or two of the season like our last 4 and that, if we are lucky – we’ll be in the 10-13 seed.
After the beat downs in the OOC schedule, the best case scenario was to get to 9-9 while picking up an upset or two along the way. But they dug a big hole with the losses to BC on the road and then GT and WF at home (and to a lesser extent the road loss to Miami.) I don’t think that any reasonable projection would get to 9-9 without wins in at least two of those four losses.
A loss Sunday @L’ville would mean that State would need a 6-3 record in the second half of the conference schedule. My fear is that the hole is simply too deep now to climb out of…unless of course a lot of other teams forget how to shoot 3’s like Duke did.
EDIT to add this from yahoo.com:
SECOND-HALF REVERSAL
N.C. State shot 55 percent after halftime, while Duke went from shooting 57 percent before halftime to 38 percent after the break. That included the Blue Devils missing 12 of 14 3-point tries in the final 20 minutes.
I don’t know anything about teamrankings.com, but they have ranked State’s remaining games by difficulty and assigned odds to State winning. It’s going to be tough to come up with six wins:
I think we can do OK vs Louisville if we handle their pressure. Truthfully, they scare me less than anyone because of their offensive inconsistency.
But yes, you are correct – in that, similar to last year, Gottfried blew a chance at the post season in the first half of the year.
What would be “interesting” would be our status if we go the projected 7-11 and then win 2 or 3 tourney games. In such an event, I imagine our rpi would be slightly better than it is now so we’d go into selection Sunday with slight shot. (And you know Swofford would like to buy our continued silence regarding an ongoing NCAA issue.)
And Billy Self of KU (#2) gets whipped by #18 WVU….85 – 69
I read Huggy bear has a clause in his contract that he gets $25K every time he beats Kansas and I think this is four in a row.
Interesting.What would be “interesting” would be our status if we go the projected 7-11 and then win 2 or 3 tourney games.
If anyone knows of example(s) of teams going on a streak in the conference tournament (without winning it) and earning a NCAAT bid, I wish that you would list it here so that I can include it in the last bubble report before the ACCT. Even if State doesn’t make it to 7 or 8 wins, someone else will.
The only one that I can think of is Arkansas went to the conference finals the same year that Sid made it to the ACCT finals. The details (including year) are fuzzy, but I need to dig up the details on that.
There might be something in the BE history before the ACC raided it and the remnants split into two conferences. I don’t know because I never paid them any attention (other than their annual beat down in the old ACC/BE challenge).
Arkansas was 7-9 that year and made it to the championship that year beating Mississippi state and Vandy. (The SEC west was putrid that year with an 8-8 record winning the division. Looking at his sec record it appears he would have been a better hire than, well…)
I know we made the tourney when we lost to Duke in the semis after the Chris Paul nut punch and we had a losing record.
FSU made it one year with a 6-10 record, but I don’t think they made much noise in the ACC tournament that year.
Sendek’s first year and either his 3rd or 4th we got within a mention (on the show) but I didn’t watch the selection show with any expectation / anticipation of a bid.
Like you said, there’s a good chance this year someone in conference will have a record that would have likely excluded them from consideration that will pop up at least in the discussion on Sunday.
I read Huggy bear has a clause in his contract that he gets $25K every time he beats Kansas and I think this is four in a row.
Interesting.Correct.
Arkansas was 7-9
I was hoping that it was worse than that. As you mentioned, State got in with 7-9 and an ACCT upset and UMD did it a few years later. In the comments to the Pre-Season Review, I linked a previous entry where I documented both teams’ OOC wins worth noting and their entire conference schedule in chronological order.
I think all three examples give us some data on what it would take with an 8-10 record. I was hoping to find a precedent for a 7-11 conference record. At the least, it would take a Thursday win. I just don’t know if even that would be enough.
A few years ago a “Thursday win” was the play-in game, I guess it would be the 3rd round for the pack potentially. (I.e. a quarter finals win.)
I am concerned about Louisville. We’ve struggled, particularly on the road, against teams that play physical defense. We don’t seem to want to play physical unless we clearly outmatch the other team.
It would take a heck of a rally for us to make the tournament at this point. It’s not that we can’t. We have more talent than most of those teams. It’s just that the easy games are behind us, and match up wise Louisville, UNC, UVA and FSU look rough (and honestly look like the top 4 in the ACC to me). That means we have to upset one, or hold serve against the rest.
Or we can just win the ACC tournament. That’s a bit tough without one of those top 4 slots, which is what some of us have been highlighting for a while…
Yea the – I don’t see a conference tournament title under Gott. In his 5 years here he has never won more than 2 tournament games in a row and he doesn’t manage his bench well enough to handle the current schedule.
Regarding Louisville, I think they may be missing 2 of their top 3 guards. However, they will still play hard.
We will have to be tough and protect the ball again. If we don’t get killed on the boards and we don’t turn it over we will win. Of course, of our 8 games we have done that 3 times so far.
Dook lost Monday night, ya’ll remember that one!
Kentucky, Kansas & ‘Nova lost last night…Now this… and it’s not a typo….
AT THE HALF
‘Engineers -FORTY ONE
#6 — NOLES – 15That’s right…
‘NOLES starting five has FOUR points!UnF’ingBelievable !!!
EMT on Alert to rush L.Hamilton to Emory as soon as he finishes his halftime trirade…SMOKE IF You GOTT ’em…
AFD watching for Smoke coming out the ‘NOLES locker room just in case L.Hamilton sets a trashcan on fire before he goes into cardiac arrest…
He’s not one to mess with when he’s mad..
And on the metaphysical level, the NCAA-MBB Sun, Moon && Stars must all be lined up in some crazya## way… Let’s hope that lasts at least 10 more days….
#UPSET ALERT @UncleRoy in South Beach this Saturday…
#NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
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