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Normally I kick back on New Year’s Day, watch football, and contemplate the meaning of life; which for the next several months is better known as the
[See the full post at: ACC BB – Preseason Summary]Forgot to include the ACC schedule for the next week. Hopefully, this link will give you the whole she-bang.
Great read. Yes, this year has been a waiting waiting waiting period to see when we turn that proverbial corner. It seemed inevitable that would happen earlier in the season but here we are in conference play getting blowed out (as Emmitt Smith might say).
If they are going to turn that corner we better do it sooner rather than later. The ACC looks to be tough this year.
I haven’t been prompted to log in to the site to make a comment in quite some time, but I had to do it to praise this post.
I can see 11 conference wins out of this schedule. 9 wins or fewer would be a disappointment. Looking forward to watching it play out. Hopefully I won’t regret saying that…
VA Wolf – I am tempted to say you’re unduly pessimistic in this case since we have a head coach who has made the NCAA tournament 4 of his 5 years.
However, we also have a coach who had a similar period of consistency at his last stop only fall off the wagon.
The question from his previous stint is really 2 fold:
Did he fall off the success wagon because a) he pursued other interests and / or was running his program in a way that made it susceptible to falling off or b) does he just lose interest focus after reaching a certain level and/ or is he doomed for a similar arc here in Raleigh.
If you believe in (A) – then you should be optimistic. If you believe in (B) – you shouldn’t.
Nor could anyone blame a state fan for fatalism. Iforgot who said “no one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of American people.” But a similar phrase applies to NC State: no one ever looks like an idiot predicting mediocrity for the Pack **since V was fired.
VaWolf: I always love your work. It is one of the main reasons that I keep coming back to this site. Nice job.
The ACC is strong and that cuts both ways. On the positive, losses probably won’t hurt the RPI too much, so we can get a lot of teams in. On the negative side, there are a lot of potential losses and then teams don’t look that good against “the eye test.”
With the talent on the roster, we SHOULD be able to go about 13-5 or even 14-4 and secure one of the top 4 spots. There’s 6-7 coaches in the league that could do that with our roster.
The reality is we have Gott coaching, will start slow and are already 0-1 in conference after laying an egg. Anything that is 9-9 (or worse) should have heavy scrutiny on Gott. We need to grow up fast.
VA Wolf – I am tempted to say you’re unduly pessimistic in this case since we have a head coach who has made the NCAA tournament 4 of his 5 years.
Maybe. I would have agreed with your reasoning before the season started. But I’m not sure that Gott’s previous records have much impact when making projections on this season once we have some hard data. Specifically, State has looked like crap in all of their losses. IIUC, Pomeroy is projecting State to have a losing ACC record (which wouldn’t surprise me).
Maybe Gott will find a magic switch to flip. If not then given the strength of the ACC, this season is going to get ugly. But I’ll change my mind when the facts change….and certainly not before.
(I’ve never really liked that quote. “Facts” don’t change, you just get new ones.)
Va, if you had to assign a percentage to us NOT making the tourney what would you put it at?
My off the cuff guess is that it’s a coin flip at this point in time.
If we miss the tourney this season Gott’s seat will certainly start to flare up a bit.
Pomeroy is projecting State to have a losing ACC record (which wouldn’t surprise me).
I am not intimately familiar with Pomeroy, but I assume his projections do not account for improvement over the course of the season. To put it another way, I suspect that at this point in the season, Pomeroy has probably projected us with a worse ACC record than we ended up with in every season except possibly 2012-13. Can anyone check this?
I know “young team” is a tired excuse around here. But Gott’s teams at State have pretty consistently improved over the course of the season, and this year he is using a rotation that includes 6 players who now have a total of 1 game each of ACC conference play experience (DSJ, Dorn, Henderson, Yurt, Kapita, Johnson). I expect at least as much improvement over the course of this season as we have seen in the past, which suggests to me that Pomeroy is likely underprojecting our ACC record.
Tonight is pretty much a must win (at least as close as you can come to one this early in the season). I doubt we beat UNC if we are 0-2 so 0-3 would be a disastrous start.
Va, if you had to assign a percentage to us NOT making the tourney what would you put it at?
My off the cuff guess is that it’s a coin flip at this point in time.
If we miss the tourney this season Gott’s seat will certainly start to flare up a bit.
A bit?
If he whiffs this year then thats a wrap. He should be fired even with his insane contract. I think if he just goes in on the bubble then his seat should get warm.
But who are we kidding Yow isnt going to fire him under any circumstance.
A bit?
If he whiffs this year then thats a wrap. He should be fired even with his insane contract. I think if he just goes in on the bubble then his seat should get warm.
But who are we kidding Yow isnt going to fire him under any circumstance.
I tend to agree with you on this. Flare up? Have people forgotten mulligan #1 (year 2 where we started #6, backed into the tournament and lost an 8/9 game)? Have they forgotten that we had one of the best players to lace it up for the red and white in 30 years (TJW), and lost a last 4 in play in game? Have they forgotten last season and the offseason?
Do they not understand that DSJ is a one and done, and this roster will only be around for one season? The time is now for Gott. I don’t think the roster is getting any better for him. If Gott misses the tournament with this roster, he should be gone and Yow with him if she tries to stop it.
The reality is that he won’t miss the tournament, but he’s seemingly trending towards underachieving relative to the talent on the roster. When that happens, Yow will do nothing as Gott is her man.
If I were Randy though and Gott underachieves, I would probably be asking for Yow’s early retirement. She’ll have done about what she realistically can at NC State. Almost every measurable element has improved under her watch. It’s time to pass off to a successor to try to take “good to great” in the revenue sports. Bring someone in and let them “assess” Gott and DD on the final year(s) of their contract. I’d directly link athletics to the goal of raising the overall endowment as part of a new AD’s metric of success.
Tau – that’s a good question and where I would go. What would our kenpom ranking be over the last 4 or 5 or something. Still, without knowing where kenpom had us at similar points the other 4 years, it’s hard to say whether or not VA Wolf is being pessimistic or simply realistic.
This VA Tech game is critical. If we can get buy this team, we will be “on track”. Lose, and simply making the tournament becomes an uphill slog. (Looking at our schedule and our results thus far against solid competition, one might rightly conclude that already.
Of course, the one factor slightly in our favour is that we haven’t had one of these games at home yet. So, it can be said that the data set is somewhat lacking in terms of what this team will do over the next 17 games where they need to win 9 of them since 9 of those games will be at home.
Rye – correction for you on TJ’s season. We won the NCAA play-in game, but lost in the round of 64 when we forgot how to shoot foul shots vs. SLU (A meltdown rivaling the Vandy meltdown in 2004).
Va, if you had to assign a percentage to us NOT making the tourney what would you put it at?
Interesting question….I wish I had an interesting answer.
I frequently make fun of Lunardi and his endless brackets, but that approach has one useful aspect. You don’t have to consider a team until they’ve done enough to warrant thought. Here are two bracket projections:
Lunardi: (10 ACC teams)
Louisville, Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Pitt, Clemson, MiamiPalm: (8 ACC teams)
Projected Champion: Louisville
At-large bids: Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest(Differences highlighted)
Yea….I didn’t see State mentioned either.
The approach many take seems to make a subjective evaluation of “talent” and then pull projected results out of thin air. I completely reject this approach. The results on the court mean something, while “talent” evaluators’ opinions frequently do not.
Anyway….back to the original question. I put State’s chances of making the NCAAT at less than 50/50. I hate to be so pessimistic after just one ACC game, but I haven’t seen anything to be optimistic about.
Let’s put this another way, you generally want to go 10-8 with a couple of Top50 wins to secure a bid before the ACCT. Where do you think State can accumulate those wins?
it’s hard to say whether or not VA Wolf is being pessimistic or simply realistic.
There’s not really any doubt that I’m being pessimistic. Only time will tell whether it is realistic or not.
Here’s an article I did on Digging Yourself Out of a Hole. While State isn’t exactly in a hole (yet), we may want to consult these examples later.
(Sorry for the formatting issues. Shit happens when you go through as many server changes as SFN has been through.)
This VA Tech game is critical. If we can get buy this team, we will be “on track”. Lose, and simply making the tournament becomes an uphill slog. (Looking at our schedule and our results thus far against solid competition, one might rightly conclude that already.
100% agree, choppack. These games at home against teams that are round about our RPI or where we think we should be are crucial. Got to protect home court, especially with how this team reacts to the road thus far. Home is also where the role players tend to shine and makes the difference when the teams are about even. And we have a separate team worth of role players.
Top Nine after two Conference games each…
This…
ACC Standings
TEAM CONF OVERALL
Florida State 2-0 14-1
Notre Dame 2-0 13-2
Duke 1-1 13-2
Virginia Tech 1-1 12-2
North Carolina 1-1 13-3
NC State 1-1 12-3
Pittsburgh 1-1 12-3
Clemson 1-1 11-3
Miami 1-1 11-3Some Crazy sh#t….
#NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!Va, if you had to assign a percentage to us NOT making the tourney what would you put it at?
Found a new site today that supposes it has the answer to your question. It appears to be updated after last night’s game:
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/nc-state-wolfpack/bracketology
I don’t know anything about this site, but at least someone has attempted to make a projection.
Thanks for shaaring! 67% chance of whiffing even after yesterdays game. Yikes!
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