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David M. Hale …
NC State Wolfpack: Buy. Perhaps the best indication of a team on the rise is how strong it is in the trenches. NC State might have one of the nation’s top defensive lines and a veteran offensive line. That alone is encouraging, but add in unique playmakers like Jaylen Samuels and Nyheim Hines, an intriguing receiving corps and some physical linebackers, and there’s a lot to like. Then remember that the Wolfpack was a good kicker away from a 10-win season just a year ago.http://www.espn.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/99271/acc-atlantic-stock-watch-buying-fsu-nc-state
After reading this and the linked story, I find myself wanting to be catty and sarcastic. I’m going to try to resist that.
I was wondering why nobody had commented on this thread then I thought about it. After repeated comments by most people who have posted saying they would wait and see or worse, I realize that this paragraph makes a strong case that the future is not necessarily predicted by what last year’s record says about you.
Using stock market analogies the author, David Hale, says in the Atlantic Division to buy FSU and NC State stock. All the others are Hold or Sell. My catty side asks, ‘Didn’t he read our W/L record and doesn’t he know “you are what your record says you are?”
Folks, here is your chance to put David Hale in his place by ripping his research and logic to pieces. 😉
Thanks for linking it. I honestly hadn’t seen it. The lines are the most encouraging part and that’s two out of the 3 most important positions in football (with QB being the third). As I’ve said before, there’s lots to like. We just need to see improved QB play (that third part).
I agree about qb play needing to improve. Last year he threw for 18 td’s and if I remember correctly 9 happened in the first 4 games. A bit more production against better opponents is desired.
I don’t put it on the QB.
Starting in the ECU game, then vs Notre Dame, Clemson, BC, and in the second half vs FSU – the team and staff couldn’t get it done in the red zone. The kicking game was known to be inconsistent by ECU. Far too often we moved the ball great until we got in the red zone then deviated from what got us there. This tendency could have caused us the game vs Notre Dame, had us relying on a field goal kicker when we had physically dominated the tigers in the last drive in regulation and had us bogged down late in the game when we needed to score vs FSU and BC.
If we do better in the red zone, we should have a good year.
Regarding the stock analogy. NC State is only a buy I they are priced appropriately. We have positioned ourselves well, but current management has yet to completely execute. Now, I think the current management has set itself up for success, but they haven’t been able to put to much thus far.
Chop: I agree with your stock analogy. All the pieces are there. The management needs to put it together.
Chop: I agree with your stock analogy. All the pieces are there. The management needs to put it together.
Ahem, let’s acknowledge that management put the pieces there. 😉 We like to say that Doeren is incompetent but like Hale said, but for a decent kicker State could have been 10-2 in 2016. That’s not what I call bad management.
Our starting QB has said he is working to add muscle, weight, speed and quickness this spring so he will better able to take advantage of opportunities to pick up yardage he left to the field last year. I don’t put it on him either but I do like his attitude. It looks like our blue collar, hands in the dirt, work ethic extends to positions not traditionally known to be that way.
I don’t know what to do when we get in the red zone but I do know the field shrinks. There is less area to cover. Not saying that management made the right calls but the same calls that get you to the red zone may not be the calls to get you into the end zone. Just saying…
On a good note the areas we fell short last fall were worked on heavily this spring. Red zone offense, special team play and Ones vs Ones line play in particular. It wasn’t just the kicking that management thought needed improvement. We won’t know how much difference the Ones vs Ones line play will make a difference but Doeren said that last year our O-line couldn’t block our D-line and this spring they could or were competitive — I don’t remember which. I didn’t get the idea the D-line had gotten any less effective.
Note: While the competition was there and the intensity was there, there was no chippiness between the O and D lines. It was One Pack/One Goal with the lines working to help each other get better.
We like to say that Doeren is incompetent but like Hale said, but for a decent kicker State could have been 10-2 in 2016.
People made excuses about Sendek’s teams for years. Close doesn’t count for much in most sports…you either win or you don’t.
I like how people say we were missed field goals away from a 10 win season. In sports thats crap. You have no idea what effect a made field goal has in the game. Does the other team come right back and score? Does it motivate them to focus more and not turn the ball over 5 times?There are hundred of what ifs in games and making a field goal doesn’t guarantee the outcome would have changed. Yes we have a veteran offensive line, that was mediocre last year. I hate looking at returning starters to judge whether a team will be good. It means very little when those starters were average at best. We also have an inexperienced secondary but talented so how quickly they step up determines alot about our season. While we have talent, we still need to have a lot go right this season for us to up the win total.
People made excuses about Sendek’s teams for years. Close doesn’t count for much in most sports…you either win or you don’t.
I don’t know what people said about Sendek’s teams but I’m pretty sure Hale wasn’t making “excuses” for Doeren’s 2016 team. What possible reason would Hale have for making excuses for anybody? If making excuses is how you read what Hale had to say, I’d suggest you ask yourself, “What filter am I looking through.”
I find it ludicrous for you or anybody to consider another’s evaluation of information to be making excuses. Get real.
Ahem, let’s acknowledge that management put the pieces there. ? We like to say that Doeren is incompetent but like Hale said, but for a decent kicker State could have been 10-2 in 2016. That’s not what I call bad management.
This analogy is about comparing a program to an undervalued stock. Do you buy low because you think it might rise? If things were all in place, then that stock would already be performing and not undervalued. Some things are missing.
Our football program is the potentially undervalued stock in this analogy. We have some of the pieces there that looks like we could be on the rise. We don’t have everything though because we’d already be flying high.
The pieces are there from the perspective of the lines. That is the most important thing, and I have given credit to DD and staff many times on their focus on these areas. It’s part of what is clearly being done correctly. There are subsets of things (like S&C), RBs and the commitment to the run (up until last year) that seemingly are being done well, and these are the reasons why we want to see DD ultimately break through.
It is concerning that the architect of the DL is no longer here. It’s great for him that he’s in the NFL now, but will be the next DL coach be able to maintain the same level of talent and depth? One of the issues that has undermined our program in the past is the good assistants perform well and then move along (some up, and some lateral). So will the DL continue to be a long term strength, or are we going to ride a wave of a really good year this year and then fall off? It remains to be seen.
The third piece of that equation is QB. I don’t know where we stand really. I don’t think that NC State needs a NFL starter to have a good season, but we have to get more out of a QB than we have in any year under DD. We were clearly in a bad spot coming into last season, and Drink did what he could to fill it. Will we see a spike this year, or is help 2 years away (and in the form of a freshman)? Time will tell.
We weren’t necessarily a kicker away from 10 wins last year. I’m sorry, but that does not account for what happens after the kick is made. A good team (like national title winning Clemson) can take the ball and go the length of the field rapidly. We clearly have a weakness at kicking and it hurt us, but I can’t say 10-2 if we make a couple of kicks.
If we were merely a kicker away, one would think we would have an incredibly attractive scholarship to offer to a kicker. We are heading into next season with a grad transfer who put up modest numbers and the same practice superstar. If that’s what we thought and were selling, we seemingly didn’t have any buyers. Is the kicking issue addressed? I guess we’ll know by about 3-4 games in, but if Bambgard is back out there for FGs, I can tell you that answer is no.
So to Grey’s point about the management, yes credit has to be given to what is being done well. That doesn’t mean that it’s all there, or the stock wouldn’t be undervalued (and we wouldn’t be coming off 7-6).
I was also trying to be kind because part of the big, glaring issue is just how poor we are on game day, within the games. There’s a reason that on some of these lists the head man is down near the bottom of P5 coaches. I don’t agree with that assessment because I do see some very important things (OL, DL, RBs, S&C) being done well so it’s not all bad. I personally think that the head man costs us 5-7 points a game.
If we were a kicker away from 10 wins, what were we away without DD spotting the other team 5-7 points? Are BC, ECU, Clemson and FSU all wins if DD’s headset were on mute? Those straw men arguments can be built many ways. There are just too many variables to make statements like the kicker.
I don’t know what people said about Sendek’s teams
I do. The media fed us a steady diet of the fact that HWSNBN was fantastic, State should be thankful to have him, and why do we possibly think we could ever compete with UNC or Duke? We just needed to be patient, continue chopping wood, and ignore the fact that we laid an egg at every critical, program defining juncture.
When UNC’s job came open, I didn’t see a single one of those media members suggesting that HWSNBN should be hired. I didn’t see a single article suggesting that Wake, Clemson, VT, etc. should hire him. I didn’t see a single one of those media members calling for HWSNBN at their alma maters.
I’m not saying DD is HWSNBN, but let’s not pretend for a second that the media doesn’t have bias. Even if it is not organizationally driven (e.g. drastically different spin on different networks of the same event), those reporting are human and thus have a lens.
The sports media is rarely critical of head coaches. To do so risks losing access, alienating readers and viewers, losing advertising, etc.. It’s almost always positive spin, with WTNY and hope sprinkled in. Everyone is 0-0 right now and this “could be the year!”
NC State’s basketball and football programs have almost reached the level of the Chicago Cubs in baseball. We’re not quite that bad, but it is a similar mindset — every year is “the year” right up until it is painfully obvious that it is not. My goodness our fanbase is Charlie Brown trying to kick that football or Linus waiting for the Great Pumpkin. I keep holding out hope though that we are like the Cubs, and eventually one year it actually WILL be our year.
I like how people say we were missed field goals away from a 10 win season. In sports thats crap. You have no idea what effect a made field goal has in the game. Does the other team come right back and score? Does it motivate them to focus more and not turn the ball over 5 times?There are hundred of what ifs in games and making a field goal doesn’t guarantee the outcome would have changed. Yes we have a veteran offensive line, that was mediocre last year. I hate looking at returning starters to judge whether a team will be good. It means very little when those starters were average at best. We also have an inexperienced secondary but talented so how quickly they step up determines alot about our season. While we have talent, we still need to have a lot go right this season for us to up the win total.
Making the field goal at the end of the Clemson game would have guaranteed a win. Time expired as the ball was being kicked. A dropped INT likely cost us a game. A freshman WR lined up incorrectly cost us a TD that would have made losing to BC nearly impossible. The only game where a field goal made may not have made any difference in your miss/made field goal analogy was the ECU game where we missed 2 chip shot FGs.
Mistakes are a part of football and you are what your record says you are in any given season. Evaluating next season’s potential it is fair to analyze why games were lost not merely note that they were lost. True enough we can’t count to being in the same position with Clemson and FSU and I don’t count on winning those 2 games. I believe we CAN win them, just that I don’t count on them.
Our offensive line couldn’t block our D-line last year (according to DD). This spring DD said they were able to block our D-line — not that they dominated the D-line. While that doesn’t guarantee anything, it is encouraging to me. While our O-line may be considered mediocre by some, it gave up relatively few sacks. I’m sure some of that stat can be attributed to our short passing game.
I share your view of our secondary. It will be more skilled and if our D-line and LBs can keep the pressure off them, they should be a better group by the time we get to the ND game.
As far as a lot of things needing to go right for us to up our win total, I believe if we can stop a few things from going wrong, our win total will go up.
Greywolf wrote:
I don’t know what people said about Sendek’s teams
I do.rye, How long are you going to rent HWSNBN space in your head? I hope your rant about Sendek gives you some peace. Now, let him go. He ain’t worth it. Never was, never will be.
I’m not saying DD is HWSNBN, but let’s not pretend for a second that the media doesn’t have bias.
Do you remember the story rating all the D-1 coaches? DD was rated about 68 — lower than some coaches who had not coached a D-1 game. He was rated below nearly all the P-5 coaches he beat. If that is bias for DD, I’d hate to see the ones who are biased the other way.
Ahem, let’s acknowledge that management put the pieces there. We like to say that Doeren is incompetent but like Hale said, but for a decent kicker State could have been 10-2 in 2016.
Do you not see the contradiction in these two sentences? ‘Management’ is who chose the kickers we had last season, so lacking a decent kicker was on ‘management.’
Furthermore, ‘management’ knew we didn’t have a decent kicker but failed to fully adjust offensive playcalling to address that.
I’m not saying DD is HWSNBN, but let’s not pretend for a second that the media doesn’t have bias.
Do you remember the story rating all the D-1 coaches? DD was rated about 68 — lower than some coaches who had not coached a D-1 game. He was rated below nearly all the P-5 coaches he beat. If that is bias for DD, I’d hate to see the ones who are biased the other way.
Grey do you think DD will get fired if he only wins 6 wins in regular season? How about 7?
DO you think he should be fired at either one of those totals?
I am buying Ryan Finley stock. He was a soph last year in a new offense with new coaches at a new school. He looked pretty doggone good and sometimes great. I believe he will have a breakout year…as in all ACC type. Not relying so heavily on Dayes may help us, if we can spread it around to JaySam, Hines, much improved receivers, and we are still strong at RB. Plus, the line looks strong, which you’ve got to have for the QB to play to his potential.
Grey do you think DD will get fired if he only wins 6 wins in regular season? How about 7?
DO you think he should be fired at either one of those totals?
Unlike some I don’t think a coach should be fired as punishment for not winning an arbitrary number of games so I won’t be making that call until after the season. After the season I hope Debbie Yow will decide with the chancellor what is best for the football program and the university and not what some big donor or even a general consensus thinks she should do. She’ll take the heat for the decision should it be unpopular but that goes with the job.
TOB, for instance, wasn’t fired because of the season he had in 2012, but for a lack of quality depth to replace the 22 seniors who graduated including Mike Glennon, continued fall-off in recruiting, and for having the general condition of the program to be in disarray. Predictably TOB was going to have the kind of season DD had in 2013. Maybe not quite as bad in the W/L record but a miserable season all the same.
I will say that I hope that the team is successful, not because I like Doeren particularly but because I don’t want a disruption in the growth of the program from a marginally sustainable program to a fully integrated program distinguishable primarily in size from the Big-boy football programs.
I probably shouldn’t say this and it will never happen but I would like to see the coordinators given the responsibility and authority to run the offense, defense and special teams as they see fit to accomplish goals agreed upon by the HC and coordinators.
I’m afraid that Doeren will never be respected on the sidelines. Just like trust in a marriage once respect for the HC on the sidelines is gone, it will likely never return. Actions of a spouse who is not trusted will be viewed with suspicion; decisions that don’t turn out will be assumed to be bad, wrong or dumb-assed.
Right now only a few people who post about football are not fearful that no matter how good things look, nothing is going to turn out well because Doeren is ______(fill in the blank).
So I don’t think it matters whether we win 6, 7, or even 9 or 10 games there will still be a disrespect of Doeren’s sideline abilities and a low-grade clamor for him to be replaced at the first opportunity.
I keep trying to think of a way to keep him as HC and have the sideline coaching be done by a coordinator. The difference in my and most thinking is it would be a huge mistake to fire him because we couldn’t replace him to build and manage what he does the other 99 percent of the time.
Grey, let me get this straight. We should have someone else handle in game management? If the position coaches are doing the development and schemes, what exactly does DD do in that scenario? Also in regards to the premise that making a few field goals makes us a 10 win season is just plain crazy. The Clemson game you speak of, we were only in because they turned the ball over a few thousand times. One could argue by the same premise that one turnover taken away from us and we lose by double digits. DD is a nice guy, a good administrator, and a not so good football coach.
I don’t know what people said about Sendek’s teams
Pretty much exactly what you are saying about last year’s football team….year after year. The bottom line remained the same….whatever happened wasn’t Sendek’s fault without ever discussing exactly what Sendek was supposed to be responsible for. However, it’s only fair to point out that story line also included the statement or insinuation that Sendek was good enough for State….and you’ve never claimed that DD’s results to date were “good enough”.
There’s a fine line between an explanation and an excuse. Over enough time, luck evens out and all attempts at explanations are actually just more excuses. Sendek clearly reached the “enough time” point and if DD isn’t there yet, he’s rapidly approaching it.
The Clemson game you speak of, we were only in because they turned the ball over a few thousand times.
Hmmm… Was that the game where Dra Wright hit the Clemson RB so hard he hardly knew what hit him? If you think fumbles are caused by bad luck… never mind.
Have a nice day.The Clemson game you speak of, we were only in because they turned the ball over a few thousand times.
Hmmm… Was that the game where Dra Wright hit the Clemson RB so hard he hardly knew what hit him? If you think fumbles are caused by bad luck… never mind.
Have a nice day.You keep referencing the Clemson game as if we won. If my memory is correct Dave coached himself right out of the victory during the last possession of the game.
Grey you only look at the things that support your opinion. What about the pick or other fumbles which was uncommon for that Clemson team. I know I know in your world our stellar defense forced all of those turnovers and we were one field goal away from winning. By Golly we win that game and those other losses after it wouldn’t have happened either because of the confidence we would have gained.
The fact is we were picked as a sleeper because our d line was good and our the number of returning starters on offense. We were mediocre at best last year and will be this year as well. I mean we lost to BC at home. I look forward to your perspective in late October.
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