4 over rated NCAA Tournament teams

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  • #101424
    StateFans
    Keymaster

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    Duke

    To the Blue Devils, defense seems to be more of a theory than applied strategy. This is one of Duke’s worst defensive teams in the efficiency era (a term I just created that refers to the first year of the deep stat analysis by the great Ken Pomeroy). This year, Duke is No. 110 in defensive effiency. Only two other times in the past 15 years has Duke been worse than No. 32 in the stat, with all three of those seasons occurring in the last six years.

    It hasn’t turned out well for the Devils when their defense is lagging. The year Duke was No. 116, the Blue Devils were upset in the first round by 14th seed Mercer. The year they were No. 81, Duke was a No. 2 seed and lost to No. 15 Lehigh. This year Duke is No. 110. You do the math.

    The other key stats from KenPom show that Duke excels at keeping teams from getting to the free-throw line (cough, refs, cough, youusedtocomplainthatDeanSmithgotallthecallsandnowyouareDeanSmith, cough). They also don’t see teams take a lot of threes against them which either means they’re good at defending the perimeter (eh) or their choose to pound them inside (there it is).

    The “live by the three, die by the three” cliche is probably most often used when talking about Duke. But in a year with such an awful (relative) defense, that will be as true as ever for Mike Krzyzewksi and company.

    #101435
    Wufpacker
    Participant

    I guess somebody forgot to tell ‘Zona not to suck.
    Those guys (along with Purdue and Baylor) wrecked what otherwise was a pretty good bracket day for me.
    That’s what I get for not picking any 12/5 upsets and carrying a 6 seed into the round of 8.
    Meh, what can I say? I thought Sean Miller and co. were underseeded. They were not.

    #101436
    Whiteshoes67
    Participant

    ^Wuf, I think you were right that Zona was underseeded, but more importantly, Wichita State was also underseeded. Losing in the MVC tourney probably cost them a few spots, but even with that loss, they simply weren’t an 11 based on the eye test. Most of the early losses came without their starting PG. My bracket looks good. I have the Shocks taking on KU to go to the Final 4! KU advancing

    #101437
    Wufpacker
    Participant

    ^ Good point about Scary Wheat. They definitely didn’t look like an 11, but I was too busy screaming at ‘Zona to have appreciated that fact properly.

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