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Time: 9:10ish pm Location: Dayton, OH TV: TruTV Announcers: Brian Anderson, Dan Bonner and Kristine Leahy Well Wolfpackers, we’re Dancing!! and we all[See the full post at: (12) NC STATE vs (12) XAVIER Preview]
Analytically, The X by 5 makes perfect sense.
On the other hand, there are intangibles in play, and I think that’s where the difference will come from, and that’s where I like the Wolfpack (without knowing two things about Xavier.)
Why? Simple. The team learned a valuable lesson on Friday: that it can beat a top team, but that it has to be on board for the whole game. That lesson was reinforced Saturday in the first half against Duke, and in the second half, it was painfully reinforced when Raulston “Shoot First, Think Later” Turner couldn’t find the nets.
I think it will be State by 5. Hell, why not, we’ve been living on a prayer for so long I may as well start being optimistic about this thing.
I’ll make one caveat to my prediction that the outcome will be based on the level of play of Stainbrook. If Stainbrook is healthy, or healthy enough to be close to his old self, then I think Xavier prevails due to his ability to score and rebound on both ends of the court. If Stainbrook is still hampered by his injury then I think the Pack will be able to control the paint better and thus be victorious.
I’m hoping Alpha is right about this team learning the lessons that have been hard this season, competing for 40 minutes and finishing games. I still see too many times when State players just have major brainfarts while out on the court and it results in mini-runs for the opposition.
Transition.
*If* we can get rebounds and force turnovers then fly out, I really like our chances. Same thing against St. Louis, should we make it to that game.
Pace and tone will be important. I’d love to see us set a tone early and maintain it throughout – it’s been a huge shortcoming for this particular team. Lessons learned, hopefully. No matter what, no skittish-ness … we have nothing to lose. Go out there and play.
*If* we can get rebounds and force turnovers then fly out, I really like our chances. Same thing against St. Louis, should we make it to that game.
I agree that if this team would do those 2 things then they’d be much better then they are. Here’s the big problem, it’s not like this team can’t do them because we’ve all seen it happen at times during the game but it’s like this team, including the coaching staff, hasn’t made that simple connection. So I’m not expecting things to change overnight. We are what we are and unfortunately those 2 things aren’t them.
Of course the other part of the equation is a lot of teams know this and they game plan by getting back on transition defense to prevent the Pack from pushing the ball. The Pack doesn’t appear to have good defensive fundamentals, thus a lot of reaching in and drawing fouls, and there is a failure to get defensive rebounding as well. Add those 2 things to teams dropping back to prevent transition offense and it’s not a formula for up-tempo play.
Win or lose I am extremely proud of this team. Boy are they fun to watch, and you can tell they care for one another. At least we have a chance. That’s all any of us could have asked coming in.
Xavier by 5?! Please… we win by at least 8. It would be interesting to see this same analysis over just the last 5 games when State emerged from the UNC and SU regular season jobs.
We have the worst efficiency d of any team from a power conference in the tourney….oddly enough if we advance, we play the team with the worst efficiency offense.
I don’t know how Gottfried does it, but he has managed to make the tourney 3 years in a row with very mediocre defenses. This is also why I don’t see us getting much farther than bubble status unless we learn how to rebound and play d.
I am thankful that State got in the tournament. Survive and Advance has always been a fine mantra but what would I not give to see our team take Xavier by the throat and mop the floor with them. When is the last time State beat a very good team from start to finish and by a wide margin without any hotdogging slide back. I enjoyed our victories over Duke and UNC last year but the single digit final margins were not reflective of how we had control of those games. I know State belongs in the field but I want every March Madness viewer to know it as well. Destroy and Advance. Mental and Physical toughness for 40 minutes. I apologize for the caffeine induced rant. I want to see more victorious reaction videos for a deserving group of kids. Go Pack!!
This definitely is a Hipster Cat kind of game, where a 6’3″ guard is X’s biggest weapon, by far. Hipster Cat needs to be tasked with shutting him down, and we win. I hope that means more dual PG minutes, especially if Des isn’t feeling it.
We have the worst efficiency d of any team from a power conference in the tourney
Glad to know my eyes have not been lying to me. We are so very bad on that end of the floor. Really amazing what Gott has been able to do. And I mean that out of the utmost respect.
With that said, it is time for this staff to hit some clinics. We HAVE to get better there. It is an absolute must.
I predict the gametime will be a crapfest – at least here. Doing the cleanse for a colonoscopy scheduled for tomorrow. So I might end up watching or listening from the throne. As to the game itself the team has shown they can rebound and they can play top notch defense at times. I’m betting those happen tonight.
This team has been fun to watch – sometimes frustrating for sure but always interesting.
The only thing I fear about this game is that we come in too amped up and let them get way out ahead of us. I think KW is prone to line drive his shots, especially his baby hook, when he’s excited. RT put everyone’s mammoth expectations on himself after his 22 point breakout game and I think that pressure resulted in less than par offensive performances in the next two games primarily due to poor shot selection. TJ’s questionable decision making on defense (reach ins) surfaces when he’s out of his grove. Anyway, Gott’s challenge is to season the mental soup just right.
Having said that, I expect this team to win this game and the next and create a winnable situation late in the Louisville game (by the way, does anyone know when that might tip on Saturday?).
Here are some very clear differences between this team and the 2013 edition going into the NCAAT:
1) No drama on this team
2) Manageable egos on this team
3) A consistent, reliable, superstar, end of game closer
4) BIGS
5) Supporting cast, bench
6) Confidence
7) Unity
8) Joy…all the difference in the world when one is happy2013, with all their individual talent was a mental hot mess no matter what combination Gott tried. We are a TOTALLY different team this year and we come in to this NCAAT seeing it as an opportunity not a right. We are very motivated to win….and we will. And, IMHO, there is no team in the tourney we can’t beat.
What makes us both interesting and vulnerable is that we have such wildly divergent pieces. For instance, we have two VERY different lineups:
OFFENSE: WBS, BSW, Buckets, KW, Vandy
DEFENSE: Hipster Cat, Des, Buckets, Le Nard, KH
Within that, you have several tiers of defensive ability:
VERY GOOD: Hipster Cat, Buckets
PRETT-AY, PRETT-AY GOOD: Des, Le Nard, KH
EH, NOT SO MUCH: KW
AVERT THINE EYES: WBS, BSW, Vandy (though Vandy has shown signs of upgrading to KW’s tier of late).
But some of those in the ATE tier have valuable and unique strengths. WBS is as good as it gets as an offensive PG against zone defenses (or triangle and two), especially now that he is looking for and taking his 3-point shot. BSW can go all Black Scott Wood at any moment, which gives us a much needed second scorer and permiter threat so that 3 guys can’t collapse on Buckets (a simple double-team is barely an annoyance to him). And Vandy has around the rim skill, which he unleashed as never before during the ACCT. When he’s on and confident that way, he gives you 8-10 unguardable points – and again, softens up the D for Buckets.
On the flip side, some of the defensive guys have also been diverging their skill sets of late. Hipster Cat has started to be assertive in the open court again, and shown good midrange ability against press man defense (first half against Duke). Le Nard provided much needed “blue collar” offense in the ACCT, and started looking better at the FT line. You never know what you’re gonna get from Des offensively, but his good games have been REALLY GOOD. Plus, who hasn’t fallen in love with the HippoHOOK?
Speaking of which, I was at lunch with some UNC work friends yesterday. The one that’s my firm’s unofficial ACC historian and font of all knowledge, was talking about Anya, and said (totally unaware of the SFN memes) “You know who Anya reminds me of? King Hippo from Mike Tyson’s Punch-Out!”
This was perhaps the happiest moment of my life.
‘Having said that, I expect this team to win this game and the next and create a winnable situation late in the Louisville game’ What? No love for my Jaspers? (I went Undergrad to Manhattan and Grad at State. A 12/13 game between the 2 of them would make my head implode…)
What makes us both interesting and vulnerable is that we have such wildly divergent pieces. For instance, we have two VERY different lineups:
Unfortunately they’re basically mutually exclusive. We have to decide if we want to trade offense for defense or vice versa. It might depend on which BSW shows up. If it’s 5-8 BSW, then offense. If it’s 2-10 BSW, defense.
It might depend on which BSW shows up. If it’s 5-8 BSW, then offense. If it’s 2-10 BSW, defense.
^It needs to be figured out quickly, too. I’m not saying abandon anyone to the bench, but we can’t afford to fall behind by 10+ points while sticking with something that is not working.
I believe in Ralston … we’ll see what happens. It would thrill me to no end to see Cat continue to bust out of his offensive shell and really run the offense and set up some huge Ralston threes … wishful thinking and all.
Win or lose I am extremely proud of this team. Boy are they fun to watch, and you can tell they care for one another. At least we have a chance. That’s all any of us could have asked coming in.
Agree
While this has been a frustrating year at times it is not because of squandered talent.I am 100% content and at peace no matter what happens. Fun team, and I like all 9 guys who play. Most of them, quite a lot (looking at you, KH).
I think we might need to take a little off … when it comes to Turner….
yeah.. when we really needed is shot in the second half against Dook… it wasn’t there…
but…We had been one of the top ranked “inside scoring” as a percentage of total points teams in the country all season…
It’s one thing to get a three pointer when the shooter is hot… it’s a whole other deal to get one when you have to have one… especially when that has not been your modus operandi all season.
Dez, whose was MIA for most the ACC Tournament, is more problematical that Turner missing threes….
and the fair question remains unasked and unanswered… with Dook in total Lockdown mode on CUZ… why didn’t the ball go in the paint during that critical 2-1/2 minutes.That’s all ancient history now and we GOTT a game to win tonight… but herein lies the keys to tonight’s game…
Three guys in double figures…
70%-75% free throw shooting or better…
Even or close to even in Rebounds
Less than 10 turnovers…
Forty minutes of good, solid, not great defense…Who’s going to be the one or two surprises for us — other than CUZ ??
They will determine the outcome of the game for us.Perhaps the best news is that it could be any one or two out of EIGHT guys… and that makes it real tough on the opposing Coach.
#NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!thanks… beej…
…when I wrote that I was really thinking about the past couple of seasons when some people said we had no bench and that Coach GOTT would never play more than seven guys…Has anybody GOTT any ideas as to who the Zebras might be tonight???
… and on that topic… what happened to the nice polite discussion(topic) about our friends Luckie and Coach K… it seems to have been abducted by aliens…
#NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
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