What was Les Miles thinking? In what is perhaps the biggest off-season coaching blunder since Ed Orgeron named Brent Schaeffer his starting QB six months before he stepped on campus, Miles is picking a fight with USC before the season starts. Even as an LSU fan, I can’t condone his tirade.
However, in a time of year when no one is talking college football, Les brings up an interesting debate. Who does have the easiest road to the national title? While USC’s schedule might not be quite as easy as Miles thinks, is it really as tough as some others think? Preseason guru Phil Steele says USC, who doesn’t play a single team in Steele’s top 15*, has the 2nd toughest schedule in the country. He goes on to rank all ten Pac 10 team’s schedules among the thirteen most difficult in the country. On the flip side, Florida who plays four teams in his top eleven not counting the SEC Championship game has an “easier schedule†this year than last year and ranks the Gators strength of schedule 21st – just four spots above Utah, who last time I checked plays in the Mountain West. Anyone else confused?
Herein lies the problem. Strength of schedule really depends on your perspective. What might mathematically be an easier schedule due to the lower ratings of the lower teams on a schedule doesn’t necessarily make it an easy path to the title game. Does a national title team really care whether they play Idaho or Middle Tennessee? Would they sweat out a game against Stanford any more than Tulane?
LSU Tigers 2007 Opponents
Mississippi St.
Virginia Tech
Middle Tennessee
South Carolina
Tulane
Florida
Kentucky
Auburn
Alabama
Louisiana Tech
Ole Miss
Arkansas
USC Trojans 2007 Opponents
Idaho
Nebraska
Washington St.
Washington
Stanford
Arizona
Notre Dame
Oregon
Oregon St.
Cal
Arizona State
UCLA
Let’s take Wake Forest (Steele’s #51) as an example. If Wake were to play LSU’s schedule, Wake would be clear favorites in five games and would be a toss-up in another game – according to Steele’s own “Power Pollâ€. Winning the five games it’s favored in plus the tossup game would make Wake bowl eligible. With a couple of upsets, Wake could win eight games. On the other hand, against USC’s schedule, Wake would be a clear favorite in only two games, a toss-up to slight favorite in two others, and an underdog in the other eight. Wake would need to not only win both tossups but also win two upsets just to become bowl eligible.
However, does that really make it a difficult path to the national title game? From the perspective of a national title contender, let’s take Texas against the same schedules. Versus LSU’s schedule, the Longhorns would be overwhelmingly favored in six games. Three others would have Texas as clear favorites. The remaining three games would be toss-ups. However, assuming they did well, the Longhorns would have to play in the SEC championship game against another top team. So, to make it to the national title game, Texas would have to face a total of four teams from Steele’s Power Poll top 15 including playing defending national champion Florida at least once.
Against USC’s schedule, Texas would be overwhelming favorites in eight games and clear-cut favorites in all of the remaining four. Any loss against that schedule would be considered an upset given Texas’ #8 ranking and the #16 ranking of its highest rated hypothetical opponent, who is coming off a 7-6 season.
So, USC, with Steele’s #2 strength of schedule doesn’t have to play a single top 15 team on its way to the national title. Conversely, LSU, with Steele’s #52 schedule, would have to face four teams in the top 15. Maybe Les Miles is on to something. When a team has a schedule who’s toughest opponent is 7-6 Oregon (according to Steele), I think their schedule can be criticized as a path to the national title. Granted it’s not their fault, USC scheduled Nebraska and ND out of conference, but those teams are hardly contenders this year, and realistically, the Pac 10 has no other national title contenders. It might be a difficult schedule for the #50 team, but it should be a breeze for USC or any other national title contender.
Why is top 15 relevant? It is a somewhat arbitrary rank, but national title contenders don’t lose to teams outside the top 15. Five of the six teams SFN pegged as national title contenders in 2006 were a combined 43-1 against teams not in the top 15 in SFN’s preseason rankings (FSU was excluded). The only upset was #16 Arkansas over Auburn.
Ultimately, strength of schedule can be calculated any number of ways. However, the metric is really dependent on perspective. If a team is hoping for a winning season and a bowl bid, then traditional winning percentage calculations probably work fairly well. On the other hand, if your team is in search of a national title. What really matters is the number and quality of the heavyweights on the schedule not the strength of the patsies.
*All rankings and strength of schedules based on Phil Steele’s preseason guide. Steele generally provides some of the most accurate preseason rankings.
