Let the Hate Flow – U*NC Open Thread

[choppack1]

Yogi – I hear you, but you gotta remember, he wS 8-8 in conference with Glennon.

Also, don’t underestimate Bible’s development of qbs. If you play the position the way he teaches, you at least end up holding a clipboard in the league. (I will be shocked if Finley doesn’t end up doing same.)

Regardless, it’s a game of inches and as I said after the Clemson game, they did a perfect job in everything but the last 29 seconds. And if you recall, I was bullish after that game and the Louisville outcome I largely ignored.

Still, I expected more than 2-3 in the last 5.

I have questions about the staff and the lead man, but I am fine with another year given the solidity of our trenches. What is missing is what has been missing the last 2 years, some depth, speed and height in the Db and an ability to get our linebackers out of coverage in critical passing situations.

[ryebread]

If “ifs and buts were candy and nuts, every day would be a holiday.” That 5 missed FGs and a called back touchdown straw man is some Curry math if I’ve ever seen it.

You are what your record says you are. DD’s is awful.

He scraped by with the bare floor this year after digging himself a big hole. It’s obvious that Yow didn’t want to fire him and that timing and budgets are bad with/because of her. Sometimes standing pat even while sub-optimal is the best move and that’s evidently what the “powers that be” felt. That doesn’t mean the situation is good and we shouldn’t lie to ourselves and say it is.

Oh well, on to basketball. That one should be viewed through a much more critical lense because those are the Crown Jewels of NC State athletics.

[Texpack]

Chop – As much as my youngest son and I still joke about the 4 yard crossing routes that Bible / Glennon used to beat FSU, I have thought that Bible must be a really good to great teacher of the QB position. Wilson and Glennon were both very well prepared for the NFL.

I find it hard to believe that we will see something impressive in DD next year that’s been hidden for the last four years. I think watching Brock Rottweiler attempt to play QB has my disposition leaning toward the cut your losses approach more and more each day.

[tractor57]

I ask in all seriousness if we replaced the football coach who is better than we could reasonably hire? Not the pie in the sky stuff. We do have budget limits and then who would want to come here – yes some would but are they any better?

[BassPacker]

Don’t know bout all these ifs and or buts and nuts and such….but I do know I had a great weekend and still smiling !!

[YogiNC]

tractor57 wrote:

I ask in all seriousness if we replaced the football coach who is better than we could reasonably hire?

THIS! Thanks tractor. And pay the costs of breaking our contract. This is the crux of what I said about data on replacements for football coaches. Rarely is the replacement any better than who was there before. I used a measurement span of just the last 10 years to make it easy to grab the data but it’s been that way as long as I can remember and I ain’t a young pup. The landscape is littered with “I hope this one is better than the last one”.

Smarter than the average bear

[tractor57]

“I hope this one is better than the last one”

Tom Reed, Monte Kiffin are prime examples of that. I will say I’m not convinced Coach D is the one to lead us to the promised land (history is also littered with subsequent coaches making a reputation off the hard work of the previous coach (Charlie Strong?) but I do think the odds of significant improvement are not really changed by making a coaching change now.

I see improvement (sort of like with Cut has done at Duke) but maybe not fast enough for today’s fanbase. I think the discussion is fair however I see the upside of a coaching change now being rather small.

[Rick]

YogiNC wrote:

tractor57 wrote:

I ask in all seriousness if we replaced the football coach who is better than we could reasonably hire?

THIS! Thanks tractor. And pay the costs of breaking our contract. This is the crux of what I said about data on replacements for football coaches. Rarely is the replacement any better than who was there before. I used a measurement span of just the last 10 years to make it easy to grab the data but it’s been that way as long as I can remember and I ain’t a young pup. The landscape is littered with “I hope this one is better than the last one”.

If DD is the best we can do then why bother? Actually, I guess I haven’t bothered. I haven’t watched more than a few quarters anyway. Frees up even more of my time.

[66pack]

Agree with RIck. I also probably watched less than 30mins. this year. Just more of the same.

[YogiNC]

Want to take a look at the stark reality of what it takes to be top 25 in college football look at Dabo. Took over in 2008 from Bowden. Not like he took over a team that sucked or had a total lack of talent or recruits. It took him 4 years to break into the top 25. Another 4 years to get where he is now, and all through that he had to overcome FSU. Today he gets pretty much the top recruits including those from NC. Now seriously ask yourself how often THAT happens. I’d say 1 out of 1000 or more. What if Clemson had given up on him in the first 4 years?

Second reality, Kirby Smart, supposed to be the brightest star in the field last year. Took over a GA team that had plenty of talent, now 7 – 5 and lost to GT. Richt’s records were all better than that with the exception of one year at 6 – 7.

The point is football saviors are few and far between, and more than likely it’s a matter of pure luck if you find one. Look at Urban Meyer’s travel log. Sabin didn’t even return his call when Sabin was HC at Toledo. Sabin commented that he made a mistake by not calling him back. DUH! For those that would rather see DD gone you’re welcome to post REALISTIC replacements. Carnac the Magnificent selections don’t count.

Smarter than the average bear

[Whiteshoes67]

^Yogi, you’re cherry picking. Playing in the SEC East isn’t like playing in the ACC. Dabo may not be the sharpest coach on the sideline, but he’s a heckuva recruiter and motivator, and he won his fair share those first few years, which is why he was retained. They were visibly building. It was clear from Year 1.

I agree with you that the cupboard was bare when DD arrived. But DD was and is squarely in the hotseat now because he hasn’t been able to win the close games. Nobody expected him to beat Clemson or FSU the last few years. His problem is not being able to beat the likes of BC, ECU, and win the 50/50 games. Clock management, field decisions, penalties…those fall on the coach. Coordinators and coaches get paid big bucks to win the 50/50 games. You win the ones you should first, then you win some others against comparable teams, and then you steal a few.

I applaud those who see the glass as half full, and I want DD to succeed as well. But if you choose to see this year as a step forward, and live by the “we were a few plays away” mantra, it’s just as easy to look at other side. We were a few plays away from being smoked by Clemson, who coughed it up in our red zone multiple times, and Watson threw a pick-6, the only one of his entire career. Clemson moved the ball at will against us, and Watson threw some really bad deep balls in that game that should’ve been touchdowns. They could’ve just as easily beaten us by 5 TD’s. We beat ND in a hurricane with Kelly throwing the ball all over the field.

My point is that he’s not as dynamic a recruiter, and he’s not going to win the talent contest, so he’s got to win the 50/50 games. He hasn’t shown the ability to do much of that.

[ryebread]

YogiNC wrote:

For those that would rather see DD gone you’re welcome to post REALISTIC replacements. Carnac the Magnificent selections don’t count.

A few weeks back, I laid out a realistic scenario with respect to Kitchings. I figure it’d be about as cheap a move as we could make, that it might actually fix things, but realistically isn’t worse than what we are doing now. We’d probably get a bump in recruiting.

I think we have some things that are really working well with this staff, and I don’t want to throw the baby out with the bathwater. Kitchings has been here the entire time, has seen all parts of it, and is one of the pieces that is seemingly working (we’re the most stocked at RB that we’ve been in my lifetime). He’ll know up close what is working at what isn’t (and that was what helped Dabo immensely at Clemson). From the outside, some things I like are the RBs, DL, OL, S&C and the WRs.

It doesn’t matter though. DD has been retained this year. He’ll come back next year on a very hot seat and expectations that probably won’t be met (8-4 regular season). If Yow doesn’t leave at the end of this year, then we’re in a tough spot 12 months from now due to probably needing to make two moves.

[choppack1]

Yogi – your comparison of Dabo to DD isnt supported by the data.

In Dabo’s first 4 years, he was 19-10, his first full 4 years, he was 23-9. (Taking away his first 5 games). OTOH, Tommy Bowden’s last 4 he wss 18-14.

Dabo won his division his 2nd year, where he tied TB’s best season. (Tommy Bowden never won his division.)

In Dabo’s 4th year, he went 7-1… something TB never did.

Funny thing, clearly Tommy Bowden was a decent replacement of Tommy West (whose last season was 1-7 in conference.) Even West had some initial success, but it was obvious he had peaked.

Likewise, there was evidence that Bowden had peaked.

Unfortunately for us, DD hasn’t matched the 4 conference win season of his predecessor in his first 4 years.

Still, I do believe he will have the talent to exceed that next year and hopefully at least tie TOB and Amato’s high water mark of 5-3.

[YogiNC]

WS, MY point is who you gonna call? Ghostbusters? Cherry picking aside WHO would you hire and how would you do it? Oh yeah, how much are you going to pay him? Give 3 examples and be specific. This is HR 101. You’ve identified what you consider to be a problem. You laid that out really well from the negatives point of view. The task should be simple right? Find someone to fix the negatives. that’s how firing and hiring work. We’ve talking cause and effect and process improvement. Clearly define the process to guarantee success. Pssst… my point is that’s impossible. AT BEST I’d like to know how many hires over the last 10 years for coaching changes ACTUALLY improved the won loss record (that is the standard of measurement here). I’ll make it easier than the before mentioned 50% improvement, we’ll make it a paltry 25%. So with a 6 – 6 record you want at least 8 wins. Tell me how many times that has happened in just the last 4 years.

It’s easy to say “we want better”, the hard part is figuring out how to get it in this particular paradigm. I slice and dice data for a living. Develop processes and hiring plans for some very big companies, do consumer surveys and polling. It’s very easy to say what your expectations are, It’s damned hard to figure out how to do it if you cannot define the process to achieve it. From my perspective in producing decisions based on data if you could figure this one out you could name your price as a consultant, you’d be a very rich man, because no one ever has.

Smarter than the average bear

[Adventuroo]

I think the dye was cast (whatever the Latin phrase is) on AD Yow. Unless there is a major move afoot by the Mega Donors who were ready to step up to the plate and help form an a burner entity that could buy out Doeren, then the contracts will be in effect.

Dr. Woodson has to make a macro decision. The advances in the Non-Revenue sports and our Directors Cup rankings are, in effect, a GOOD UNC Victory….for DD. So, by constantly improving our overall record (Director’s Cup) standing, then there will be little impetus to replace (buyout) AD Yow early.

However, I COULD BE WRONG… IF BB and Title IX sports continue to improve, then AD Yow will not leave, unless it is HER call.

Therefore, she WILL have to made the performance call after the 2017 Season.

Remember the dates. AD Yow’s contract is 6/30/19 and DD’s contract is 12/31/19.

She MAY pull the pin on him next year for NOT meeting the expectations. He (per well placed sources) did not meet them this year, but got a FREE PICK from the Community Chest pile, the card he picked off the top said…

BEAT UNC and KEEP YOUR JOB.

Someone did a Monopoly Card that had been doctored with those words and his picture….

That is what happened….next year, I suspect the bar (and I would HOPE SO) is higher….so he MAY not have the option of even drawing a card… If you follow the Monopoly correlation, he is out of $$ and has some nice properties with houses and hotels, but the board is loaded with “other owners” or opponents. He is going to have to avoid those spaces next year. They are the LOSSES and will eat up his remaining capital….and he will be bankrupt by the time the season is over and will be dismissed from the game….except, he walks with $840K for two years.

I STILL wish that as part of his continued “employment” he would have given up a year’s severance….but AD Yow did not take up my offer to consult with her on this matter….

[YogiNC]

choppack1 wrote:

Yogi – your comparison of Dabo to DD isnt supported by the data.

I wasn’t comparing Dabo to DD, I was comparing him to every other hire in the coaching universe in the last 8 years. His stock is an anomaly. No other data comes close because no one else achieved what he did. That’s the point of the data, most (in this thread by my estimation) would consider improving wins by 25% to be paltry and yet very, very few have achieved even that.

Smarter than the average bear

[tractor57]

At least you have provided a name that is not pie in the sky. Which I what I had asked. I still think all in all things will be better with DD for another year. Am I satisfied with the results so far? No I am not but I do think a change at this time puts us back into the old cycle of wash, spin and repeat. I respect that others disagree but that is my view.

[choppack1]

Who would consider a 25% improvement paltry? Heck, Dd has barely won over 25% of his conference games.

Everything is relative. I imagine that Dabo has exceeded expectations. A hire like him makes sense when there is an individual on the staff that you believe has the right stuff AND you think that you are close, but not there.

Heck, when Sendek left all we needed was a 10% improvement from his last 5 years and we would be in great shape.

OTOH, a coach like Sidney Lowe, Les Robinson or Tom Reed makes that 25% improvement possible, perhaps even necessary (because you can’t really fall off the floor can you?)

Given his tough start if DD can make it to a conference record of .500 at the year mark, I will be thrilled and call anyone who wants him fired for onfield results an idiot. Heck, I would do the same he won an average of 4.5 these next 4 years unless something is clearly wrong his last 2.

[Whiteshoes67]

I’d go the route that’s been successful in the past for us. I don’t follow football enough at the lower levels to throw out a ton of names, but I’m a skeptic about hiring retreads and assistant coaches. As I’ve said in the past, I think AD have become risk averse. Search firms and ADs are looking for the sexy name as opposed to making hard choices. The sexy name is a marketing gimmick.

I’d look for a head man from the southeast, with experience recruiting and coaching in the southeast, who’s relatively young, but has had success at a subdivision school. In other words, they didn’t inherit the success. They made it. I give them a shot on a relatively small budget. I invest in assistants as well.

[Gowolves]

Whiteshoes67 wrote:

I’d go the route that’s been successful in the past for us. I don’t follow football enough at the lower levels to throw out a ton of names, but I’m a skeptic about hiring retreads and assistant coaches. As I’ve said in the past, I think AD have become risk averse. Search firms and ADs are looking for the sexy name as opposed to making hard choices. The sexy name is a marketing gimmick.

I’d look for a head man from the southeast, with experience recruiting and coaching in the southeast, who’s relatively young, but has had success at a subdivision school. In other words, they didn’t inherit the success. They made it. I give them a shot on a relatively small budget. I invest in assistants as well.

Scott Satterfield at App. Talking to people close to the program is that he has made it his own since Moore left. New offense and other changes. That guy would and should be on the list of potential coaches if needed next year. Won the conference this year.

[YogiNC]

Whiteshoes67 wrote:

I’d go the route that’s been successful in the past for us.

I had to laugh when I read that, we can’t go out and dig people up to find out how they did it. Today’s hiring practices are VASTLY different than 1980s, 1970s. Those were the last times we were “successful” at it. Lou lasted 2 seasons and poofed, Sheridan had some good years. Sorry WS, that process, whatever it was, probably won’t work today.

Chop, 10% improvement would only be one game. That could have happened with just one field goal.

Smarter than the average bear

[choppack1]

Yes. It could have been – but it wasn’t. And plenty of our ex-coaches were very close too. The only reason DD is on the hot seat is because he hasn’t reached the .500 mark once in conference in 4 years. If he had done so this year, I don’t think you would have seen as much drama. Next year, 4-4 in conference may not be enough.

But for the record, I would be happy of one of our guys was .500 or better after 6 years. (And I think that # is pretty much statistically out of reach for DD.)

[Whiteshoes67]

For NCSU, I think a track record of building and winning as a head man, as opposed to assistants and head D-1 coaches who’ve inherited successful programs or have been canned and command big paydays, is the path to success. I’m not saying it’s a guarantee, but I’d rather hedge in that direction. It’s cost effective to hire from the lower ranks. You have a proven record to gauge success. If you want a data driven approach, show me the guys from the SE or connections to the area who meet this criteria, and I’ll take my chances. Doesn’t mean the Dabos and the Hermanns aren’t out there, but the odds of finding those folks are slimmer than finding the other guys.

[Pack1997]

I get DD getting another year, but I think we can all agree he has a ways to go to instill confidence in the fanbase. He made a lot of bad in game decisions. I cannot tell if it is routes or skills but our WR still cannot get separation. Our QB struggles to throw the ball further than 20 yds down field. Our Defense was good at times, but our secondary still needed some work. In year 4 these holes shouldn’t be there. While Yogi is right it would be a roll of the dice, to luck upon someone considerably better, we should still try. We can all agree 6 and 6 isn’t what we want as fans. If thats the ceiling under DD so be it, roll the dice wiht someone else.

Or the donors step up and we get a quality coach.

[Greywolf]

tractor57 wrote:

I see improvement (sort of like with Cut has done at Duke)

Speaking of Cut and Duke, Cut started with a 4-8 (1-7) W/L his first year and now his 9th year it’s what? 8-4 (7-1)? No, it’s 4-8 (1-7). Not much improvement is it?

The problem with Doeren as I see it is he does too much stuff well. Makes for a real problem just looking at his record. For or against Doeren you must admit, he’s got us talking our arses off on this and other boards. 😉

Me? I’m in a wait and see mode. I’m betting on the guy to make it. Oh well, we’ll just have to wait and see. 😉

[Author]

Posts