Baseball Regular Season Finale – Heels Come to Town

ACC ACC Teams Baseball NC State NC State Baseball139

Time’s running out for Wolfpack Baseball (32-17, 13-12 ACC) to distinguish themselves as one of the top 8 teams in the nation as the Pack took it on the chin this past weekend at Louisville. When the dust settled, the Cards had not only swept the Pack, but also limited State to 3 runs in 3 games and never trailed at any point in any of the three games.

‘Twas not a good series for the Pack.

–

No time like the present for a little home cooking as State returns to the friendly confines of Doak Field to host Carolina for the regular season finale this weekend.

Frankly, both teams are struggling as they approach the finish line. Carolina is fighting to remain in the ACC Tournament field (currently they’d be the #9 seed out of 10). On the other hand, State is fighting to stay in the regional host discussion, hoping to get back into the national seed discussion, all while having lost 6 of their last 7 games.

If the Pack’s bats don’t wake up soon, it could be ugly.

And that could become problematic considering that Carolina, as usual, has one of the best pitching staffs in the nation. As an ENTIRE staff, they sport a 2.98 ERA compared to 3.81 for the Pack.

And while they don’t hit with the same power or average that the Pack does, they do the little things very well to get an extra base or scratch out that extra run. They draw walks better than we do, they don’t strike out nearly as much and they’ve stolen twice as many bases on the year as the Pack.

Boil that all down and it results in a Carolina team with a significantly lower team BA (.285 vs .303) and slgpct (.411 vs .443) still scoring virtually the same number of runs per game as the Pack (6.71 vs 6.75).

Translation….this series is pretty much a toss up.  Fortunately, we have them in Raleigh.

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Carolina at NC State Game Schedule

  • Thursday, May 19, 6:00pm – ESPN3
  • Friday, May 20, 6:30pm – ESPN3
  • Saturday, May 21, 1:00pm – ESPN3

*All ACC series this weekend are Thursday thru Saturday (ACCT starts Tuesday)

 

ACC Standings

Atlantic
Schools Conf W-L-T Conf PCT W-L-T PCT
Louisville 19-8-0 .704 43-10-0 .811
Florida State 15-8-0 .652 33-17-0 .660
NC State 13-12-0 .520 32-17-0 .653
Clemson 13-14-0 .481 35-18-0 .660
Wake Forest 13-14-0 .481 32-20-0 .615
Boston College 11-14-0 .440 29-18-0 .617
Notre Dame 11-14-0 .440 27-24-0 .529
Coastal
Schools Conf W-L-T Conf PCT W-L-T PCT
Miami 19-6-0 .760 41-9-0 .820
Virginia 16-11-0 .593 33-18-0 .647
Georgia Tech 12-14-0 .462 34-18-0 .654
North Carolina 12-15-0 .444 33-19-0 .635
Duke 12-15-0 .444 31-21-0 .596
Pitt 10-16-0 .385 25-24-0 .510
Virginia Tech 6-21-0 .222 19-33-0 .365

 

Elsewhere in the ACC this Weekend

  • (3)Miami at (9)FSU
  • (5)Louisville at Wake
  • VT at (8)UVa
  • (19)Clemson at ND
  • BC at (22)GT
  • Duke at Pitt

–

If the ACC Tourney started today…

This time next week the ACC Baseball Tourney will already be underway. As of the moment of this writing, the seeds/pools would break down as follows.

  1. Miami (19-6)
  2. Louisville (19-8)
  3. Florida State (15-8)
  4. Virginia (16-11)
  5. NC State (13-12)
  6. Clemson (13-14)
  7. Wake (13-14)
  8. Georgia Tech (12-14)
  9. Carolina (12-15)
  10. Duke (12-15)
    –
    ND (11-14)
    BC (11-14)

Pool A would be (1)Miami, (4)UVa, (5)NCSU and the winner of the (8)GT/(9)Carolina play in game.
Pool B would be (2)’Ville, (3)FSU, (6)Clemson and the winner of the (7)Wake/(10)Duke play in game.

But with FSU hosting Miami this weekend, and UVa getting VT at home to end things, even the top spots aren’t set in stone yet. And there will almost assuredly be some shake up of spots 5 thru 10.

Fortunately, anything short of getting swept by Carolina this weekend, and the Pack is pretty safely above the play in game line. As a bonus motivation, sweeping Carolina this weekend could potentially knock them out of the field altogether if either BC or ND could pick up a win vs GT or Clemson, respectively.

But that also works the other way as well. Which is to say that Carolina will be motivated to NOT get knocked out of the field.

Anywhoo…we’ll revisit the ACCT issue after the weekend’s games are over and the field is set.

–

NCAA Tourney National Seeds (again, if the tourney began today)…

There was a question on another thread regarding how national seeds are determined and how RPI is used for same. Essentially, just like basketball tourney seeding, RPI is only one metric used. To be honest, I don’t know specifically what they weight more or less. They look at RPI as a guide, but it is definitely not the end all be all. Overall record, conference record, record against top 50 RPI, top 100 RPI, SOS etc., all enter into it.

Based only on what I’ve observed in the past, this would be my guess as to who the national seeds would be if the season ended today.

Florida (43-9) – No brainer as #1 overall
Miami (38-9) – Tough call between them and ‘Ville for #2 overall. But the ‘Canes played the tougher schedule and have a better conference record.
Louisville (42-10) – See above
Texas A&M (39-13)
Ole Miss (39-13)
Mississippi State (37-14-1)
Texas Tech (38-13)
South Carolina (38-13)

If you’re keeping score at home, that’s 5 SEC teams, 2 ACC teams, 1 Big12 team.

And in spite of our #6 RPI currently, we are barely even in the first four out right now IMHO. Vandy, LSU, FSU and UVa (D1Baseball has UVa in place of Ole Miss for example) have as good or better cases than we do currently.

Bottom line…we’ve got work to do over the next two weeks if we want a national seed and even if we hope to hang on as a regional host.

–

‘Twernt a lot of highlights at Louisville, but here’s the two that made the cut….

So I’ll supplement the video selection this week with a flashback from not quite a year ago at the DBAP….

That was a really fun game to be at, FWIW.

–

Go Pack!!!!!

–

About Wufpacker

A 2nd generation alumnus and raised since birth to be irrationally dedicated to all things NC State. Class of '88 and '92.

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Home › Forums › Baseball Regular Season Finale – Heels Come to Town

Viewing 25 posts - 76 through 100 (of 140 total)
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  • 05/19/2016 at 9:56 PM #103720
    Gowolves
    Participant

    Well they did what was expected but not given as it relates to Pack sports. Even more so when it’s against those people. This team is probably the most consistent when it comes to expectations. Pretty even keel. When they face above average pitching they tend to struggle. Of course when I say above average pitching I mean in the context of the Pack hitters. They hit well. In a three game series against the Pack I trust they will eventually get the advantage at the plate more often than not. They have to do better scouting pitchers. They need to be ready early. I get it sometimes batting around to get a feel for what he’s doing but with the bats being quite lately they need to counter.

    05/19/2016 at 10:06 PM #103722
    TheCOWDOG
    Moderator

    I think I agree.

    05/19/2016 at 10:30 PM #103725
    Wufpacker
    Participant
    TheCOWDOG wrote:

    I think I agree.

    Ditto. I think.

    05/19/2016 at 10:38 PM #103726
    TheCOWDOG
    Moderator

    Wanna go fuk with these Basketball Green Flys for awhile?

    05/20/2016 at 4:58 AM #103728
    PackerInRussia
    Participant

    Just watched the replay (minus the 9th inning – thanks ESPN3). With crapping or getting off the pot hanging in metaphorical balance, the Pack was slowly standing up. But with a bang, they promptly sat down and took care of business. RPI won’t mean nuttin ‘less you win. Good start. Here’s to continuing to take care of business. And here’s to the Heels missing out on the ACCT (if that’s still possible).

    05/20/2016 at 4:59 AM #103729
    PackerInRussia
    Participant

    Oh, and did the announcer say “buttload” in about the 8th inning when talking about the number of fans schools would bring to the park during the tourney? I was afraid to run it back b/c any tampering with ESPN3 stream results in it not working. Not very announcerly, but I thought it was funny if he said it.

    05/20/2016 at 8:43 AM #103734
    Wufpacker
    Participant
    PackerInRussia wrote:

    And here’s to the Heels missing out on the ACCT (if that’s still possible).

    It’s still very possible. They’ve dropped into the #10 hole behind Duke by virtue of last night’s results. Still need either ND or BC to do some work though.

    Dunno if the announcers said “buttload” or not. I keep sound down generally. But I’d like to think they did.

    05/20/2016 at 10:42 AM #103744
    Whiteshoes67
    Participant

    Had to give up my tix to this one unfortunately but watched it on the tres. I don’t think scouting of pitchers is a big problem, not as this level. No doubt it could help, but plate discipline imo is the bigger issue with this bunch. It’s always a problem as far as I can tell. i don’t know hitting coaches there but it seems constant since Avent’s been the skip. Few teams have I seen who come out hacking at so many first pitches. Last night is case in point. Later in the game, the counts went deeper, they saw more pitches, we squared up balls. More chances for pitcher to make mistakes, better timing, the list goes on and on. Rain, rain, rain. Situational hitting is an area where we struggle. We got key two out hits but it’s the approach that’s important. Deatherage last night, late in game, bunts for a hit with 2 down with the lead and momentum. Just another example. I don’t care how well you run or if the infield is all playing on the grass. Swing the bat in that situation.

    You’d never hear me yelling to take the bat out of a kid’s hands, but I think this talented group of youngsters, most of whom have no problem catching up with the 90 mph fastball, would benefit by seeing a few more pitches, especially early in the game. Against better pitching, you’ve got to strike a balance between seeing more and not falling into a pitchers count. It doesn’t have to be the same approach for all players, but some of our guys shouldn’t have the green light every time they step in the box. Like to see a little more rotation into the DH slot.

    05/20/2016 at 12:30 PM #103747
    Gowolves
    Participant
    Whiteshoes67 wrote:

    Had to give up my tix to this one unfortunately but watched it on the tres. I don’t think scouting of pitchers is a big problem, not as this level. No doubt it could help, but plate discipline imo is the bigger issue with this bunch. It’s always a problem as far as I can tell. i don’t know hitting coaches there but it seems constant since Avent’s been the skip. Few teams have I seen who come out hacking at so many first pitches. Last night is case in point. Later in the game, the counts went deeper, they saw more pitches, we squared up balls. More chances for pitcher to make mistakes, better timing, the list goes on and on. Rain, rain, rain. Situational hitting is an area where we struggle. We got key two out hits but it’s the approach that’s important. Deatherage last night, late in game, bunts for a hit with 2 down with the lead and momentum. Just another example. I don’t care how well you run or if the infield is all playing on the grass. Swing the bat in that situation.

    I agree it is pervasive at the college level. Speaking with a UNC grad who played for them back in the early 80’s said the same thing about Fox. Taking a lot of pitches. UNC, I think is in the top five in the nation in walks. I am just not one of those one size fits all people. Seems like plate discipline has gotten confused with the concept of work the count. Its about leverage at the plate. If that first pitch was what you expected and/or its your type of pitch then jump on it. You may not see it again. That’s just my opinion.

    05/20/2016 at 12:58 PM #103749
    Whiteshoes67
    Participant

    ^I agree. Just a little more plate discipline, patience, especially the first time through the order, would really benefit some of the guys imo. The situational awareness has to be taught at this level, and it starts with the skip.

    For those of us who never caught, or made the college level transition to catcher, what’s up with Kizner? Swing looks totally different, even from last year when the transition took place. He used to be really short and quick to the ball. From my point-of-view, now his swing really long. Completely different and he looks uncomfortable. Was this a deliberate change?

    05/20/2016 at 6:13 PM #103754
    TheCOWDOG
    Moderator

    Wish I could help Shoes, but I transitioned in the opposite direction…from the plate to the Romin’ Gardens. However, I don’t think the swing got shorter.

    I’ll take a look at K’s a little closer

    05/20/2016 at 6:30 PM #103757
    tjfoose1
    Participant

    I’m sure Yow has something to do with hit.

    05/20/2016 at 7:23 PM #103760
    Whiteshoes67
    Participant

    He got off to a slower start this year, and I have no idea how much the grind of catching duties takes, or if he’s injured or just pressing. Nice rip first time up tonight

    05/20/2016 at 8:20 PM #103761
    Wufpacker
    Participant

    Woooo!!!! I am back from a post-apocalyptic hell. Electricity was out for nearly two hours.

    Aaaannnddd….we’re losing.
    Sans electricity might have been the better option.

    05/20/2016 at 9:31 PM #103762
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    Guess this one never got no better??

    05/20/2016 at 9:31 PM #103763
    Wufpacker
    Participant

    So yeah….so much for the sweep it would appear.

    05/20/2016 at 10:31 PM #103764
    Wufpacker
    Participant

    16-4 Final. Heels beat our collective asses tonight I’m afraid.

    05/20/2016 at 10:32 PM #103765
    Wufpacker
    Participant
    BJD95 wrote:

    Guess this one never got no better??

    Nope…only got worse as it got longer.
    (that’s what she said)

    05/20/2016 at 11:27 PM #103766
    mak4dpak
    Participant

    No matter who we had on the mound, our pitching was horrible, and they hit the crap out of us. Have a ticket for Saturday, but decided to drive up early for the game tonight. What a waste, and total embarrassment for the fans. The fans showed up, but not sure what you call what the team showed up for. Gotta win the series. Fortunately no matter how many runs you lose by, they only count as one loss in the loss column. Hope pitching shows up Saturday, can’t take another friday nite fiasco.

    05/21/2016 at 8:35 AM #103768
    BJD95
    Keymaster
    Wufpacker wrote:
    BJD95 wrote:

    Guess this one never got no better??

    Nope…only got worse as it got longer.
    (that’s what she said)

    Ha!!! Most of my such disappointments tend to be in the “5 minutes or less” category, so…

    05/21/2016 at 10:28 AM #103769
    Whiteshoes67
    Participant

    When the lights went out, did we play whack-a-cheater or did we behave?

    05/21/2016 at 1:36 PM #103770
    ncsu1987
    Participant

    Catching a few min of today’s game. Trouble in the 2nd, but nice pitching and beautiful work behind the batter gets out of the jam.

    05/21/2016 at 2:49 PM #103771
    TheCOWDOG
    Moderator

    Out of a jamb in top 5…Nice.
    4 run lead ain’t feelin’ comfortable.

    05/21/2016 at 2:59 PM #103772
    ncsu1987
    Participant

    ^Something about the pitching staff late in the year here…beautiful base running and hitting last inning at bat. Leaving a lot stranded today….

    05/21/2016 at 3:00 PM #103773
    Wufpacker
    Participant
    TheCOWDOG wrote:

    Out of a jamb in top 5…Nice.
    4 run lead ain’t feelin’ comfortable.

    Agreed. Even up 4, I’m puckering.

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