Welp…for the first time in Mark Gottfried’s five year tenure at NC State, Wolfpack fans have very little to care about this afternoon as the NCAA Tournament selection work is being done and will ultimately be unveiled at 6pm on CBS. If you are in the Triangle region of North Carolina then you will be watching the selection show on Channel 17 WNCN for the first time in your life.
In the Atlantic Coast Conference, the current drama is around Syracuse’s bubble status as many pundits are split on the Orange’s invitation to the big dance.
One school that pundits are not questioning is the University of Dayton Flyers coached by NC State alumnus, Archie Miller. I guess SFN will have to ordain the Flyers as this year’s ordained “ShadowPack” team that we adopt when the Wolfpack is nowhere in the mix.
Of course, we will also be watching the University at Buffalo’s Cinderella bid as the Bulls have punched their ticket to the dance with the help of Julius Hodge.
Buffalo punches its ticket to the big dance thanks to THIS 3-pointer with 1.8 seconds left to defeat Akron. VIDEO: https://t.co/am9GdcTCft
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) March 13, 2016
Introducing Cinderella: Meet the Buffalo Bulls https://t.co/a8m77fKoND
— CollegeBasketbllTalk (@CBTonNBC) March 13, 2016
One of my favorite things to do each year at Selection Sunday time is to track and follow the accuracy of many of the pundits. This gambling website has actually put up odds on the accuracy of ESPN’s Joe Lunardi. I love it! Don’t forget, Lunardi whiffed on NC State’s inclusion in the big dance a couple of years ago.
We should note that the field expanded from 64 teams to 65 teams in the 2001 NCAA Tournament. That number increased to 68 teams for the 2011 NCAA Tournament, with four play-in games accounting for the opening round — a decision that has perplexed college basketball fans for years.
In the five years prior to the expanded opening round, Lunardi averaged 63.8 teams correctly predicted (98.15%) and 26.8 seeds correctly predicted. In the five years since the field expanded to 68 teams, Lunardi has averaged 66.6 teams correctly predicted (97.94%) and 36 seeds correctly predicted (52.94%). While Lunardi’s ability to accurately predict the field has continued uninterrupted, his ability to accurately project the exact seed has improved significantly.
Although there are many March Madness prognosticators, Lunardi is unequivocally the most well-recognized. In fact, oddsmakers have taken note of Lunardi’s prowess and have posted several prop bets involving his final bracketology. Just over one month ago, 5Dimes posted seven different props regarding Lunardi’s predictions including an over/under on his correct predictions and odds for correctly predicting all 68 teams.
These odds were dramatically different from the odds last year, where Lunardi was listed at -265 to accurately predict more than 66.5 schools and +300 to nail every single tournament team.
In the most recent update, Lunardi’s odds of correctly predicting all 68 teams had dropped from +700 to +650 and the juice on under 66.5 teams dipped from -120 to -135. Given Lunardi’s track record we would lean towards taking the over, but even with reduced juice there’s very limited value.
In another prop bet posted by 5Dimes, bettors can wager on the number of teams that Lunardi will accurately project from the “First Four” games played in Dayton, Ohio. Based on these odds, it’s more likely that Lunardi will miss all four (+700) than he will hit on all four (+1300).
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SI's @SethDavisHoops breaks down how many ACC teams will be picked on #SelectionSunday https://t.co/SO7dVy1D02 pic.twitter.com/FD4DBDhM54
— SI Now (@SInowLIVE) March 13, 2016
