Men’s Basketball Player Turnover Under Mark Gottfried

Mark Gottfried NCS Basketball503

As best as I can tell, this is the turnover under Gott. Just going to leave this here for reference.

11-12

Painter – transfer (family issues)
Harris – transfer
Raymond – transfer

12-13

Leslie – left early, never played in NBA
Brown – left early, NBA
Purvis – transfer
de Thaey – left to go wherever

13-14
Warren – left early, NBA
Lewis – transfer

14-15

Lacey – left early, never played in NBA
Washington – transfer
Wallace – walk on transfer

15-16

Barber – left early, NBA ?
Martin – transfer
Martin – transfer

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Mark Gottfried NCS Basketball

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  • 03/26/2016 at 7:55 AM #101886
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    Nope, no Plan B. That’s squarely on the head guy.

    Subjectively, it sure looks like nearly everyone we bring into the program gets out as soon as they can, doesn’t it?

    Sure does. I understand every guy has his own unique reason(s) for leaving. But it looks bad from a bird’s eye view. Nobody is sticking their neck out for Gott and they aren’t shy about bashing him on the way out. When it happens with enough guys, you have to wonder. Common denominator.

    Losing the twins is the straw the broke the camel’s back. By all accounts really good guys, great teammates, and they surely would have been a part of the solution going forward. Glue guys that can play a role. Even more telling is Gott tried like mad to keep them – it’s not like he said hit the road. Telling indeed.

    Don’t know how Roy does it, but he manages to hang on to all his guys despite the fact PT is hard to come by with the talent coming in year after year.

    Gott just doesn’t have it, folks. I know he’s got at least another year with us, but this ship is most definitely sinking.

    03/26/2016 at 8:43 AM #101889
    pakfanistan
    Participant

    I have been saying this is an issue for a while.
    Has even one player stayed with Gott for more than two seasons? I cannot think of one. I think Anya and Freeman will be the first if they make it.

    Oh Rick. How soon they forget.

    03/26/2016 at 9:15 AM #101891
    Rick
    Keymaster

    Lol
    You are right. How could I forget Cat

    03/26/2016 at 9:17 AM #101892
    Rick
    Keymaster

    In fact that whole post was so full of fail I deleted it

    03/26/2016 at 9:43 AM #101895
    pakfanistan
    Participant
    Rick wrote:

    In fact that whole post was so full of fail I deleted it

    And how do you like it mister! >:[

    03/26/2016 at 10:08 AM #101897
    redisgood
    Participant

    While the 2016 roster is looking a little skinny right now, 2017 is even scarier. Henderson, Anya, and Freeman will graduate, while I fully expect Dennis Smith and Abu to enter the draft. That would leave a team consisting of Rowan, Dorn, and Kirk. A lot of recruiting has to happen over the next year or this will go beyond ugly.

    03/26/2016 at 11:05 AM #101898
    choppack1
    Participant

    Ok – I did a quick memory jog on a spreadsheet and from what I can tell Gott’s biggest problem isn’t retention, it’s being tight with scholarship offers.

    Right now, out of 47 possible seasons from his recruits, he’s gotten 27 seasons…not good, but from what I can tell – somewhere within the average.

    However, the big issue is that he’s been carrying scholies in his pocket AND he’s used 4 scholies on transfers (which means they count toward allocation but are not in the court their first year.)

    Going into 2013 and 2014, he had 4 scholarships available (I think).
    Going into 2015 and this year, he had 3 available (I think)
    Heading into next year – we have 5 available.

    So again, Gott’s biggest problem so far is not filling out his roster. Sadly, one of the lessons apparently took away from Bama, was to be more selective with scholarships. I think he has over-compensated.

    03/26/2016 at 11:06 AM #101899
    freshmanin83
    Participant

    Hey Mister, why so blue? The sky is falling on my head.

    I like the twins I wish they had stayed. However, only one twin was going to get much playing time next year. They are a package deal. Unique circumstance so I don’t blame Gott. They will transfer to a lesser program where both will get playing time. Good luck too them both. Abu will be back. He is getting his name out there and with the new rules he can do some camps and get noticed for the future.

    That said, about 40% of all MBB players who enter Division I directly out of high school depart their initial school by the end of their sophomore year.

    Where do these transfers end up? We tracked the 596 MBB student-athletes listed on ESPN’s 2015 transfer list to determine their destination for 2015-16. Of the 528 who actually changed schools, only 44% transferred to another Division I school (most of those to a less competitive program where playing time might increase), while many ended up at Division II, NAIA or 2-year colleges. … Generally, close to 90% of all MBB transfers say they leave for athletic reasons.

    http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/research/tracking-transfer-division-i-men-s-basketball

    03/26/2016 at 11:13 AM #101900
    choppack1
    Participant

    Additional thoughts:
    – we have 3 fewer players than when gott took over
    – if you are going to be very tight with your scholarship allocation, you can’t afford to have a lot of attrition. (This is probably where Gott has been hurt most.) Right now, Gott only has enough food to eat twice a day and about half of that food goes bad or is in storage. (His tummy is growling from hunger pains.)

    03/26/2016 at 11:30 AM #101902
    BJD95
    Keymaster
    choppack1 wrote:

    Additional thoughts:
    – we have 3 fewer players than when gott took over
    – if you are going to be very tight with your scholarship allocation, you can’t afford to have a lot of attrition. (This is probably where Gott has been hurt most.) Right now, Gott only has enough food to eat twice a day and about half of that food goes bad or is in storage. (His tummy is growling from hunger pains.)

    Exactly THIS. Supposedly, being tighter with scholarships should lead to BETTER retention, but that’s clearly not the case. And you can’t have average-to-above average (or worse) attrition whilst being tight with scholarships. You’re left with no players.

    And MG clearly is unable to get ANYONE to buy into the program well enough to ever wait their turn, or accept being a role player. I understand that everyone everywhere wants to play, but COME ON.

    03/26/2016 at 11:46 AM #101903
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster
    BJD95 wrote:

    And you can’t have average-to-above average (or worse) attrition whilst being tight with scholarships. You’re left with no players.

    You left out one key component. Gott’s recruiting has been tailing off since the Lewis/Purvis/Warren class. When you’re short-handed AND have lesser talent, you get a season like the one we just watched.

    Whether Gott’s retention issues are average or worse-than-average doesn’t really matter. What matters is the quality of the team he is putting on the court and this year’s team was unacceptable. There was never any guarantee that next year would be markedly better, but now it could end up being BC-bad.

    Don’t get lost in the forest because of all the trees. Recruiting is important. Retention is important. Coaching/strategy is important. But at the end of the day, results are the only thing that anyone remembers. So don’t focus so much on the individual pieces; focus on the results.

    IMO, Bad results + bad recruiting = time for a new coach. Gott’s earned the right to try and turn this around. The open question is, how much time has he earned?

    03/26/2016 at 12:24 PM #101904
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    We would be INSANE to give him more than next season. The 2017-18 roster looks terrifying. We’d be smart to bring in somebody now, who could go to work on building a real recruiting class while the cupboard doesn’t look like Chestnut Hill.

    But…we are NC State.

    03/26/2016 at 12:34 PM #101905
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    Nope, we’re not going to be proactive – that’s just not the NC State way. We’ll wait for a couple more programs to run circles around us until that happens, and then we’ll be yet another three to five years behind. Fantastic. Just call us the BC of the south.

    I do not think Yow will fess up and admit she made a major blunder (with the hire AND now the dumba*s extension), so no change anytime soon. I don’t want her running another search, either, especially when the new guy knows he will be reporting to a brand new boss in a year or two – not a good recipe for finding the right guy.

    It is indeed extremely frustrating being a State fan. We are our own worst enemy it seems.

    03/26/2016 at 12:50 PM #101906
    MP
    Participant

    Instead of talking about Gott specifically, why should Yow not be fired this summer? The thinking seems to be:

    (1) Starting point: Some say we need a coach now and others assume at the end of next year;
    (2a) Yow is overly tied to Gott so she is unlikely to fire him;
    (2b) Even if she weren’t, nobody wants her to be the one to lead a search;
    (3) Therefore we cannot consider replacing our coach until the year Yow retires, or probably the year after since the new AD would otherwise have to fire Gott on his 1st day on the job.

    Shouldn’t we expect Woodson to understand this?

    03/26/2016 at 1:02 PM #101907
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    I know this formatting will suck, but here is Friedgen’s record at UMD:
    2001… 10- 2
    2002… 11- 3
    2003… 10- 3
    2004… 5- 6
    2005… 5- 6
    2006… 9- 4
    2007… 6- 7
    2008… 8- 5
    2009… 2- 10

    EDIT
    Oops, DY didn’t fire Friedgen and I left off his last year with a 9-4 record.

    DY was hired at State in June 2010. Here’s TOB’s record at State:
    2007… 5- 7
    2008… 6- 7
    2009… 5- 7
    2010… 9- 4
    2011… 8- 5
    2012… 7- 6

    IIRC, DY said something about recruiting fall-off with TOB. Or maybe it was just that recruiting one of the keys she was looking for in TOB’s replacement. In any event, there’s some data on DY’s patience level with losing.

    03/26/2016 at 1:18 PM #101909
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster
    BJD95 wrote:

    We would be INSANE to give him more than next season.

    I don’t know what DY is thinking, but we will gather the following additional info over the next 12 months:

    -The completion of recruiting for this year….ie spring signings, transfers, grad transfers, JC players
    -2016/2017 results on the court
    -Fall recruiting signings for 17/18 season as well as any rumors for kids still in play.

    If the situation looks as dire 12 months from now as it does today; then it’s certainly time to make a move. AND we might be looking at turning over less to the new coach than any new hire since Case left.

    03/26/2016 at 1:20 PM #101910
    wolfpack92owen
    Participant
    MP wrote:

    Instead of talking about Gott specifically, why should Yow not be fired this summer? The thinking seems to be:

    (1) Starting point: Some say we need a coach now and others assume at the end of next year;
    (2a) Yow is overly tied to Gott so she is unlikely to fire him;
    (2b) Even if she weren’t, nobody wants her to be the one to lead a search;
    (3) Therefore we cannot consider replacing our coach until the year Yow retires, or probably the year after since the new AD would otherwise have to fire Gott on his 1st day on the job.

    Shouldn’t we expect Woodson to understand this?

    couple of points here. I have heard (maybe read) that Woodson wanted the entire AD upgraded and finishing better in the Directors Cup or whatever its called now. In theory Yow has done that so he has to be happy in that regard. Secondly he just gave her a raise and ext to 2019 and if you remember he ignorantly went totally around the search committee and hired her. That was one of the absolute classic State moves. Hire a firm to give you a list and then not even interview anyone from that list. I still contend to this day Gary Stokan should have been hired. Dude has a sensational business mind and that is what college athletics is now..a business. that ship has sailed.

    Yow just gave Gott a raise through 2020. That is another classic State blunder. Absolutely positively no reason for that at all. Very shady. With that said he isnt going anywhere and neither is she. We will at best be a bubble team next year (still think its a train wreck season) and 2017 will be abysmal. No other way around it. So at best he is here for at least 2 more years.

    Heres the thing that I dont get with Yow. She has talked up recruiting in regards to DD and TOB and how important it is and was one of the reasons she tried to fire Gary W. Well Gotts recruiting has taken a nose dive and any rival coach can show a recruit the lists of his prior classes and the absolute attrition that occurs and say something stinks in Raleigh why would you want to go there. No prospect or their parents are going sign up for that. I wouldnt let my kid certainly not. Yow has backed herself into a corner and it will be interesting to see how she tries to talk her way out of it.

    I still to this day cannot believe we hired her. Just mind-boggling idiocy.

    03/26/2016 at 1:24 PM #101912
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster
    MP wrote:

    Shouldn’t we expect Woodson to understand this?

    No. You’ve strung a whole series of assumptions together to reach a conclusion. If it’s time for Woodson to do anything, it’s time to talk to DY about what she’s thinking/planning.

    03/26/2016 at 1:34 PM #101913
    wolfpack92owen
    Participant
    VaWolf82 wrote:
    MP wrote:

    Shouldn’t we expect Woodson to understand this?

    No. You’ve strung a whole series of assumptions together to reach a conclusion. If it’s time for Woodson to do anything, it’s time to talk to DY about what she’s thinking/planning.

    I honestly dont get the sense that he cares. He is probably looking at it from a 30,000 ft view and sees we went to a bowl game the past 2 years and ncaa the past four and is fine with that. I mean damn they just gave raises to everyone so what else are we to believe?

    03/26/2016 at 1:40 PM #101914
    MP
    Participant

    ^^ You’re always such a sweetheart. The basic question is this:

    Do those in the know assume Woodson is going to let Yow run the course of her contract, regardless of the Men’s Basketball product we put on the floor? – i.e. Does she have job security through the end of her contract?

    03/26/2016 at 1:57 PM #101915
    Thinkpack17
    Participant

    Lol. You guys kill me. Last season was so fun. Knocked off Duke in a great home game, FINALLY got the UNC away monkey off our back in a finely coached game that State teams of the past would have lost 100 out of 100 times (we were leading throughout only to have UNC mount a furious comeback) and knock off a one seed to reach the sweet 16.

    1 bad season and it’s “can the prick.” Hahahahhaha! And the cherry on top is it’s from some people who thought Cat wasn’t fit to be an ACC PG. BTW Great insight on the transfer stats freshmen.

    03/26/2016 at 2:16 PM #101917
    Wufpacker
    Participant

    Thinkpack17, with all due respect, it’s more about the trend right now.

    I am fully on board with the results based reward metric. Gott has earned next year and it would be a crime IMHO to deprive him of a chance to right the ship. And though I do realize there are those who would be fine with him getting a pink slip today, I think that would currently be the wrong move for several reasons.

    ON THE OTHER HAND….

    There appears to be a trend of recruiting seemingly falling off while unexpected transfers are holding steady. It would be equally wrong to not take notice of this fact going forward, especially considering this season’s results.

    If I’m the AD, I let Gott know what’s what. You have a year to show me you’re still the man for this job. Fix it, or I’ll fix it for you.

    03/26/2016 at 2:30 PM #101918
    TheCOWDOG
    Moderator

    No…Thinkpack17 is pretty much spot on with about a 1/3 of our pundits.

    Wuf is 100% correct in his dissertation of what is under the magnifying glass.

    03/26/2016 at 2:31 PM #101919
    BJD95
    Keymaster
    MP wrote:

    Instead of talking about Gott specifically, why should Yow not be fired this summer? The thinking seems to be:

    (1) Starting point: Some say we need a coach now and others assume at the end of next year;
    (2a) Yow is overly tied to Gott so she is unlikely to fire him;
    (2b) Even if she weren’t, nobody wants her to be the one to lead a search;
    (3) Therefore we cannot consider replacing our coach until the year Yow retires, or probably the year after since the new AD would otherwise have to fire Gott on his 1st day on the job.

    Shouldn’t we expect Woodson to understand this?

    That would be what I would do. Let DY know she needs to accelerate the retirement train to effective 31 December 2016, at the latest.

    03/26/2016 at 2:31 PM #101920
    Tau837
    Participant

    I think the dropoff in Gott’s recruiting is being a bit overstated, or perhaps it is just shorthand used to highlight other issues. Using Verbal Commits data, which blends star rankings from Scout, Rivals, and ESPN, here were the star ratings for our roster in 2015-16:

    4.3 Barber
    4.0 Abu
    4.0 Anya
    4.0 Rowan
    4.0 Caleb Martin
    4.0 Cody Martin
    3.3 Henderson
    3.3 Kirk
    3.0 Freeman

    Barber, Anya, Abu, and Rowan were all ranked within the top 10 at their respective positions in their recruiting classes, and the twins were both top 20.

    This is in addition to these other players Gott recruited who could have been eligible for the 2015-16 roster:

    4.7 Purvis
    4.3 Lacey
    4.3 Warren
    4.0 Lewis
    4.0 Washington
    3.3 Harris

    Though to be fair, if some/all of these players had stayed, obviously some of the players in the first list would have gone elsewhere.

    Next season, we are set to have the following:

    5.0 DSJ
    4.0 Abu (assuming he stays)
    4.0 Anya
    4.0 Rowan
    3.3 Henderson
    3.3 Kirk
    3.0 Freeman
    2.3 Dorn

    Plus I assume 1-2 unknowns, whether freshmen, post-grad transfers, or JUCO transfers. And probably a regular transfer who will need to sit out one year.

    Considering Gott has been runner-up on some high recruits (e.g., Bam, Jefferson), and considering his best recruit ever is DSJ for the upcoming season, I don’t think it is so much that has recruiting has fallen off. It is instead the following:

    – Lack of retention
    – Not using more scholarships
    – Too much clustering (e.g., glut of wings) (i.e., are they the right recruits?)
    – Too much emphasis on athlete as opposed to skill (i.e., are they the right recruits?)
    – Poor coaching (i.e., not getting the results that should come with the talent recruited)

    Gott could still pull a rabbit out if he signs the Turkish recruit or possibly certain transfers for this year, in which case we could still have a nice roster and rotation (barring key injuries). But this combination of problems seems insurmountable at this point.

    I was hoping he might turn the corner on the retention problem at some point, but the Martins leaving has led me to give up hope on that. And there seems to be no sign that he will change/expand the emphasis of his recruiting, suggesting none of my middle three issues will be solved. Change in the first four issues on my list might mean the last one could be overcome, but without such change, it can’t.

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