March Madness begins today without our beloved Wolfpack for the first time in five years. But, that doesn’t mean that you don’t have reasons to pay attention and throw some support behind Dayton (Archie Miller), Buffalo (Julius Hodge) and, of course, whichever team is playing UNC-CHeats. So, you have a choice — (a) do you completely withdraw from the entire tournament experience? or (b) Do you allow yourself the opportunity to enjoy it a little bit more without the pressure of the Pack?
For those of you who have decided to participate and emotionally vest into March Madness…then this entry is for you! GOOD LUCK!
Statistical Nuggets
Do you love statistics? Will, ESPN has 68 betting nuggets that you will enjoy.
As of Tuesday afternoon, the exact same number of bets had been placed on Kansas and Michigan State to win the national championship at Station Casinos’ sportsbooks.
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At the Westgate SuperBook:
Top 5 teams by money wagered to win the NCAA tournament prior to the bracket being released:
1. Kansas
2. Michigan State
3. Kentucky
4. Virginia
5. Oklahoma
#MarchMadness: @NateSilver538 vs. @SportsInsights vs. The Oddsmakers https://t.co/6nDVj5gNs9 pic.twitter.com/b3IHswhZYh
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) March 17, 2016
To no one’s surprise, Kansas is the favorite to cut down the nets, followed by North Carolina, Michigan State and Virginia. It’s interesting to note that Oregon, a 1-seed, has worse odds than 2-seeds Oklahoma and Villanova, as well as 4-seed Kentucky. Simply put, despite being a trendy top seed, Oregon is not considered a serious title contender; neither is 2-seed Xavier.
Also, the oddsmakers are much higher on the Kentucky than both Silver and our Bracket Simulator. This likely means that the Kentucky line is inflated. The books know that the Wildcats are a popular public team so they can list them as a top contender, which elicits lots of action, despite the fact that they are unlikely to win it all.
If you’re looking for a Cinderella, it might be West Virginia. The Mountaineers have largely flown under the radar but they boast the 8th best title odds overall. Other sleepers include Texas A&M and Purdue.
Predicting the First Round Upsets
I liked these picks as I had the same ones in some of my brackets.
Over-rated! Clap Clap clapclapclap
Four over-rated teams highlighted here. Of the four teams listed in this article, it’s hard to imagine that any of them have the upside of Maryland. If the Terps click, they are as good as anyone in the country; their under-performane relative to their talent this year is a bit baffling. Of course, one of the teams in the article won’t be a surprise to anyone.
#7 vs #10 personified through Archie Miller’s Dayton Flyers
Did you know that choosing the 7-seed over the #10 seed has been the most profitable seed in the Round of 64 going 25-18 against the spread in recent years?
In Friday’s first game, 7-seed Dayton opened as a 1-point underdog at Pinnacle against 10-seed Syracuse. It’s always surprising to see a higher seed open as a ‘dog, but this line was perplexing for several reasons. For starters, it’s been extremely profitable to back the 7-seed in the first round of the tournament.
You would expect that bettors would leap at the opportunity to take the higher-seeded team as an underdog, but clearly bettors are being influenced by the name recognition of Syracuse. At the time of publication, Dayton was receiving just 40% of spread bets yet they had moved from +1 to -1 at Pinnacle. This reverse line movement is an excellent indicator that sharp money has been pounding the Flyers.
For anybody that’s unfamiliar with our service, the icon shown on the line graph (in the article) indicates that a steam move was triggered on this game. On Monday morning at 10:46 AM eastern, there was a steam move triggered on Dayton (PK) at Pinnacle. The Pinnacle NCAAB steam move has gone 241-203 ATS (54.28%) this season and has historically been one of our top performing bet signals. This gives us further evidence that sharp money is on the Flyers in this matchup.
Dayton is offering value to bettors, and could be an excellent pick for people looking to create a contrarian bracket.
Raleigh Regional
If you the tournament so much that you were going to spend some time at PNC Arena this weekend and try to cleanse your eyes from the abominations that you saw all season, then here is your schedule:
#Raleigh Regional Schedule for tomorrow:
TTU/BUT 12:40
UVA/HAM 3:10
UNC/FGCU 7:20
USC/PROV 9:50@DrewBlevins30 and @abbylabar_ on site!— Wolfpack Sports TV (@WolfpackSports) March 17, 2016
(Un)Verified
What happened to all that money that UNC fan boy, Bradley Bethel, brought in for his atrocious ‘movie’ designed to defend The Flagship? I may just have found out!! Last Sunday, William Hill’s Nevada sportsbook took a $55,000 bet on North Carolina to win the tournament at 5-1 odds!! Is the mystery solved?
How to pick your upsets
Looking for an edge as to how to choose some of those first round upsets? Look no further than the experts who are putting together the betting lines! In at least six games in this year’s first round, the lower seeded team is favored to win by the oddsmakers in Las Vegas.
Sweet 16 Futures
#Sweet16 futures compared with our probabilities. https://t.co/3Uikhu3tYe pic.twitter.com/qGGWmgxR2w
— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) March 15, 2016
Action Plan
Looking for a plan for your brackets? (Or some other action on the games?) This article gives you some angles to consider. This link will take you to Thursday’s betting guide.
