State beats Clemson 66-61

14-15 Basketball146

It was an ugly must-win that we’ll all gladly take.

State pulled away with a 25-3 run over a 13:24 stretch in the second half where Clemson was 0-for-15 from the floor. That was a good thing, too, because State’s poor shooting from the floor (37%), and dreadful shooting from the free throw line (72%), continued in force tonight.

State led 52-36 with 2:46 remaining but had to hold off a last-minutes surge because (unofficially) State leads the ACC in in fouling with the lead.

The regular season finale is another must-win, Saturday noon against Syracuse.

Box Score: ESPN

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14-15 Basketball

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  • 03/04/2015 at 12:44 PM #77530
    Rick
    Keymaster

    I think that might be the argument. Other than Painter, you could argue that we Gott an inbound upgrade for every one of the guys who left.

    The number of transfers in Mens D1 basketball in general is at or around 2/year on average based on numbers I’ve seen kicked around here. I loved the days when guys stayed for four years. It made for better team basketball, but I don’t think Gott’s numbers are out of line, especially on a “net transfer basis”.

    OK

    No one is arguing my point that we should expect at least one transfer out (whcih is why I brought up the whole transfer stat to begin with). And that will leave us with a very short bench. Of course if we get another transfer or a recruit that would change the equation.

    03/04/2015 at 12:52 PM #77531
    walton
    Participant

    Cat had only 2 assists and 7 turnovers. He rarely has better than a 1 to 1 assist to turnover ratio. As a result, our bigs barely got any passes and non of them had many points. We can’t win consistently without a PG who is not a playmaker. He has the quickness to drive and dish and he is a scoring threat so he can draw the defense to get bigs open. Coach needs to make it one of his top priorities to improve his team play.

    03/04/2015 at 12:56 PM #77533
    Rick
    Keymaster
    walton wrote:

    Cat had only 2 assists and 7 turnovers. He rarely has better than a 1 to 1 assist to turnover ratio. As a result, our bigs barely got any passes and non of them had many points. We can’t win consistently without a PG who is not a playmaker. He has the quickness to drive and dish and he is a scoring threat so he can draw the defense to get bigs open. Coach needs to make it one of his top priorities to improve his team play.

    Cat has been playing great for most of the recent games. IMO he will never be a pure passer but it would be nice if he was creating a bit more.

    03/04/2015 at 1:06 PM #77537
    Tau837
    Participant
    Rick wrote:

    No one is arguing my point that we should expect at least one transfer out

    I responded to your statement that Gott has averaged 2 transfers per year, which is incorrect. He has had 7 transfers in 4 offseasons:

    Harrow
    Painter
    Raymond
    TDT
    Harris
    Lewis
    Purvis

    That is less than 2/year. It is also true that he only had 2 in the past 2 offseasons, and he has only had 2 of ‘his’ players transfer — Purvis and Lewis. IMO it is fair to attribute the first 5 transfers to the coaching transition.

    Also, it is worth noting that Harrow, TDT, Harris, Purvis, and Lewis were reported to have bad attitudes and/or have been unwilling to accept their roles. IMO each of their transfers was addition by subtraction. Painter’s situation was supposedly family-related. And Raymond never should have been signed to play at State in the first place (by Lowe).

    Context matters. To tout an average of 2 transfers/year is not only wrong but also ignores all reasonable context.

    It is reasonable to expect 0-1 transfers per year. More than 1 would be an exception. As others have pointed out, this is part of today’s college basketball landscape.

    I would not assume one of our players will transfer this offseason. The past two offseasons, it was rumored or known that Purvis and Lewis were unhappy with their roles. I am not aware that any such thing is known about any current players. The only one who I could see really taking that stance is Washington, but I’m not aware of anything factual on that.

    Also, as has been pointed out, we can also take comfort in Gott’s results in bringing quality transfers in to offset the transfers out of the program. This is a quality group of players, and IMO is clearly better than the group that transferred out:

    Alex Johnson
    Trevor Lacey
    Ralston Turner
    Desmond Lee
    Terry Henderson

    03/04/2015 at 1:13 PM #77539
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    Context Matters

    Agree and yet you choose to nitpick a point made to counter the assumption that no one would transfer after this year.

    Context matters.

    03/04/2015 at 1:13 PM #77540
    1.21 Jigawatts
    Keymaster
    Tau837 wrote:

    So we’ve seen plenty of bashing of Gott’s ability to coach a team that plays good defense.

    State has given up the 7th fewest ppg (65.2) in the conference, which is slightly better than average.
    State has the 8th best defensive rating (92.05) in the conference — exactly middle of the conference.
    State has the 6th best net rating (+21.79), behind only UVA, Duke, UNC, Lousiville, ND.

    In this closing stretch, they have held 5 of 6 opponents to 65 points or fewer, and they are 4-1 in those games.

    Is anyone yet willing to give Gott and staff any credit for improved defense?

    Meanwhile, State has still been solid on offense:

    State is 4th in the conference in ppg (70.6).
    State has the 5th best offensive rating (113.84) in the conference.

    Like all fans, I want more wins and better performance. But it just seems that a lot of State fans have made up their minds that Gott is the wrong guy, and they fit all results into that predetermined perspective. As they say, haters gonna hate.

    1. Giving up less points per game does not equal a better defense, especially when comparing to previous seasons. An easy way to give up less PPG is to slow down the tempo giving teams fewer possessions. If you aren’t doing the slowing down then the other team could be the one doing it by trying to stay close, i.e. Bennett, Sendek, etc.
    2. Not sure where your numbers are coming from but middle of the conference isn’t bad, it isn’t good either.
    3. Again, not sure where your numbers are coming from but net rating doesn’t equal good defense, just the difference between offense and defense.
    4. Again holding opponents under 65 points doesn’t equate to a good defense. Over those 5 games did State hold those 5 teams under their seasonal averages in points, offensive efficiency, four factors? I don’t know but looking at the Clemson/State game CU was under their seasonal averages for Adj. ORtg, efg% and FTRate but had a lower TO% on offense and had a higher OR%. So in 1 of those games State made it more difficult for Clemson in some ways but not all.

    As for improved defense State currently is 5pts lower than last year’s final Adj. DRtg and 0.5 pts lower than the previous year’s but historically this team is less than a point away from the average Adj. DRtg for teams under Gottfried since 2002. Let’s not go overboard here touting Gottfried for “improved” defense. It’s only improved because last year’s defense was so awful you can’t get much worse. It’s like trying to compare Gottfried to Lowe, sure he’s an improvement but that’s a pretty low bar you’re using.

    03/04/2015 at 1:16 PM #77541
    redisgood
    Participant
    walton wrote:

    Cat had only 2 assists and 7 turnovers. He rarely has better than a 1 to 1 assist to turnover ratio. As a result, our bigs barely got any passes and non of them had many points. We can’t win consistently without a PG who is not a playmaker. He has the quickness to drive and dish and he is a scoring threat so he can draw the defense to get bigs open. Coach needs to make it one of his top priorities to improve his team play.

    Geez. Some people. Here are his stats from the 7 games prior to this one:
    ASST TO
    7 – 1
    4 – 0
    2 – 0
    4 – 2
    4 – 2
    4 – 3
    6 – 3
    31 – 11

    Were you watching last night? Did you see Cat’s passes to Abu and Anya that they couldn’t convert? Or his set ups to Turner in the 1st half that Turner couldn’t make?

    But don’t let a good gripe get in the way of reality.

    03/04/2015 at 1:18 PM #77542
    MP
    Participant

    No one is arguing my point that we should expect at least one transfer out

    How about a different approach. What odds would you place on individual player(s) transferring out, so we can meaningfully discuss the potential impact? For example, I will start with:

    Lacey: 0% (rising Senior, already transferred once, basically impossible unless he were a grad student transfer I think)

    03/04/2015 at 1:18 PM #77543
    GoPack83
    Participant

    Cat averages a 1.8 AST/TO ratio, has had only three games with more turnovers than assist (Clemson, WVU, Jacksonville) and four where he finished with a 1.0 AST/TO ratio.

    Also how many times did one of Cat’s passes hit a big in the hands only for them to mishandle it and cause a turnover (I want to say this happened with Anya at twice).

    03/04/2015 at 1:19 PM #77544
    GoPack83
    Participant

    redisgood beat me to it, sorry for the redundancy

    03/04/2015 at 1:20 PM #77545
    Rick
    Keymaster
    Tau837 wrote:
    Rick wrote:

    No one is arguing my point that we should expect at least one transfer out

    I responded to your statement that Gott has averaged 2 transfers per year, which is incorrect. He has had 7 transfers in 4 offseasons:

    Harrow
    Painter
    Raymond
    TDT
    Harris
    Lewis
    Purvis

    That is less than 2/year. It is also true that he only had 2 in the past 2 offseasons, and he has only had 2 of ‘his’ players transfer — Purvis and Lewis. IMO it is fair to attribute the first 5 transfers to the coaching transition.

    Also, it is worth noting that Harrow, TDT, Harris, Purvis, and Lewis were reported to have bad attitudes and/or have been unwilling to accept their roles. IMO each of their transfers was addition by subtraction. Painter’s situation was supposedly family-related. And Raymond never should have been signed to play at State in the first place (by Lowe).

    Context matters. To tout an average of 2 transfers/year is not only wrong but also ignores all reasonable context.

    It is reasonable to expect 0-1 transfers per year. More than 1 would be an exception. As others have pointed out, this is part of today’s college basketball landscape.

    I would not assume one of our players will transfer this offseason. The past two offseasons, it was rumored or known that Purvis and Lewis were unhappy with their roles. I am not aware that any such thing is known about any current players. The only one who I could see really taking that stance is Washington, but I’m not aware of anything factual on that.

    Also, as has been pointed out, we can also take comfort in Gott’s results in bringing quality transfers in to offset the transfers out of the program. This is a quality group of players, and IMO is clearly better than the group that transferred out:

    Alex Johnson
    Trevor Lacey
    Ralston Turner
    Desmond Lee
    Terry Henderson

    I for one did not think it was fair to include players that did not play at least one year under Gott which is why I did not include Harrow.
    However you want to cut it players transfer.
    Which brings me back to my original statement that it is not safe to assume no players will transfer. For the life of my I cannot understand why that is such a controversial statement.

    03/04/2015 at 1:30 PM #77549
    Rick
    Keymaster

    We can cvertainly discuss stats.
    On offense (from statsheet.com)
    NCSU is 262 in the nation in assists per game 13th in the ACC
    140th in the nation in FG% 9th in the ACC
    effective FG% we are 158 in the nation 9th in the ACC
    efficiency we are 108 in nation and 6th in the ACC

    ON defense
    FG% of opponent NCSU is 60 in the nation 5th in the ACC
    effective FG% 44th in nation and 5th in the ACC
    opponents efficiency we are 141 in nation and 9th in the ACC

    03/04/2015 at 1:30 PM #77550
    Ed89
    Participant

    It was a good win. The last 3-4 minutes could have been better, but Clemson was not getting fouls called against them (unless they fouled 4 times), and we were – first time. They hit some crazy shots, especially Devoe. That happens when you’re down and nothing to lose. We held them off in a hostile environment, but our defense looked great for 15 minutes in the second half. Isn’t that what everyone’s been complaining about? Well, that has definitely improved.
    As far as Gott, he doesn’t have anyone on this team who has played over 2 years with him. I think we’re pulling in 2 additional players for 2015 no one knows much about (yet). I hope KW doesn’t go anywhere. He’s our only post player that is an offensive threat outside of 10-12 feet. He’ll play big minutes against the Cuse zone.
    We’re heading in the right direction. I think we win at least two in the ACC tourney. Safely in as a 8-10 seed. 7 seed is possible with very strong ACC tourney.

    03/04/2015 at 1:39 PM #77552
    Whiteshoes67
    Participant

    ^Jigsy beat me to it. Those average numbers tell you little about defense. Our pace of play, as I’ve complained all season, is far too slow. For all Gott’s talk about outscoring the opponent, we don’t tend play a style that’s conducive to more possessions. Given our defensive woes, my feeling has always been that a faster style of play once you’ve built depth is favorable, given how efficient we typically are on offense. In other words, I’d bet our defense over the long run would improve simply by goading teams into early shots and by dictating a faster pace of play (pressing, trapping, running), changing defenses to keep opponents on their toes. Instead, we plod on offense. With this year’s inexperienced interior players, and a guard oriented offense, it would’ve made all the sense in the world to speed up play.

    I’m a Kenpom believer. I’ve filled out a few brackets in recent years where I go strictly by Kenpom ratings, or RPI, or some other metric, for the first few rounds. I always go by gut when I’ve seen teams play, by the Sweet 16, but I’m able to watch less and less ball now that I’m a dad, but my results are typically far better than most.

    If you look at the top 64 Kenpom teams, there are only 9 teams with worse defensive efficiency ratings than us (Notre Dame, Davidson, BYU, Ole Miss, Vandy, Stephen F. Austin, Oregon, Indiana, and the Wood Chopper’s bunch). To be a real contender, as Jigsy is showing in his Champions articles, you have to be good on offense but Gott has to really improve on the defensive end.

    03/04/2015 at 1:41 PM #77553
    MrPlywood
    Participant
    Tau837 wrote:

    Is anyone yet willing to give Gott and staff any credit for improved defense?

    Haha – I did in the game thread. 🙂

    03/04/2015 at 1:59 PM #77555
    walton
    Participant

    1.8 A/T ration is not good. Playmaking by the PG is essential to be a good team. I remember when he had a 7-1 game and it got me really excited. Had hopes it was going to be a pattern. Not so. Your own stats prove it. Basketball is a team sport. Gripe didn’t come until it was apparent that he isn’t going to be a playmaker.

    Thank goodness he is a great defensive player and a pretty good scorer. Defense is what is winning for us. That’s how we beat Clemson while only shooting 37% for the game.

    03/04/2015 at 2:05 PM #77558
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    In the stretch where he has been “Power Kitty” it’s been 3:1. Given our lack of true “finishers” that’s pretty great. He was off last night, everyone but Frenchie and BSW was.

    But again…defense matters. He’s the best on-ball defender in the ACC, and I really don’t think it’s close. If he was a cipher on offense (he’s not), Cat would be a valuable player.

    03/04/2015 at 2:13 PM #77560
    Ed89
    Participant

    “there are only 9 teams with worse defensive efficiency ratings than us (Notre Dame, Davidson, BYU, Ole Miss, Vandy, Stephen F. Austin, Oregon, Indiana, and the Wood Chopper’s bunch). To be a real contender, as Jigsy is showing in his Champions articles, you have to be good on offense but Gott has to really improve on the defensive end.”

    I would say part of that may have to do with a SOS of 4, but I could be wrong. None of these stats are in a vacuum.

    03/04/2015 at 2:19 PM #77561
    Adventuroo
    Participant

    WOW…..what a great take on the game. After it last night, I had my double Crown and went to bed…

    I can relate to a lot that was said here. I kept thinking that Clemson was trying to “outdo us”. The OutWolfPacking the WolfPack line was great.

    I also have not read the obvious comparison to Herbie and Mikey’s clashes. I remember (funny, when you are there….you have a MORE intense or etched memory than watching it on TV) an ACC Title game where we had Duke on the ropes. Mikey brought in JJ as in a White Version of DeVoe and he did his David routine and took us down. Herbie was asked WHY he did not change defenses or run a “junk” defense to prevent that…and answered….”We NEVER practiced that….” Last night was almost a Deja Vu….or maybe more of a DeVoe

    Gott, at least, did figure out HOW to keep DeVoe from carving us up and us looking like Leroy Brown….after making a pass at a jealous man’s wife.

    So, at least we DID have a plan. As the old song goes….”T>I>M>E WAS (OK, IS) on our side……”

    But, we survived and advanced….(if you missed that one….your credentials will be withdrawn).

    Caulton Tudor has a pretty good take on it….

    http://www.wralsportsfan.com/logic-says-pack-is-safe-but-gottfried-obviously-wary/14490143/

    Meanwhile….the Greensboro Coliseum is only partially lighted. Wonder WHY they have not fixed the switch gear issues that have plagued it. BUT, as long as they keep my 50 Amp MH service going….I will be there.

    My takeaway is two things…..I KNEW it was going to be a tight game. Why….

    Simple. Gott got TOO Cocky. He wore that Idiotic White and Blue Checked shirt and Lutz was in Light Blue. Think I am paranoid….NOPE….we always lose or have a rough time when they and the other coaches forget….”we’re the RED and White from State and we know we are the BEST…..”

    But, if you want something different…..how about the Turn Overs….we had a lock on them. Had that been controlled, the Clemson’s drought would have lead to a 25 – 30 point deficit….

    SO, we won….and as Jimmy V said….Ugly W’s are worse than a boat load of Pretty L’s….or something to that effect.

    GO PACK…..

    03/04/2015 at 2:21 PM #77562
    walton
    Participant

    3:1 is great, but he can’t do that consistently. Our best 4 year player’s A/T ratio was 2.94 (Sidney Lowe). And we won a championship. Now don’t anybody think I’m saying that was the only reason or even the main reason we won. But it is very important.

    BTW, our #1 career A/T player was Tyler Lewis at 3.05. Again, don’t jump to conclusions, I doubt he had enough PT to build a statistically significant number. But I hate that we lost him.

    03/04/2015 at 2:27 PM #77563
    Tau837
    Participant
    VaWolf82 wrote:

    Context Matters

    Agree and yet you choose to nitpick a point made to counter the assumption that no one would transfer after this year.

    Context matters.

    I did not address any comment saying we should not assume there will be no transfers this offseason. I addressed a comment that said Gott averages 2 transfers per year. Technically, he averages 1.75 transfers per year. But applying context, he has lost 1 transfer per year from his own recruits and after the dust settled on the transition.

    2 transfers per year is twice as many as 1 transfer per year. If that is nitpicking, so be it.

    03/04/2015 at 2:31 PM #77564
    Tau837
    Participant
    1.21 Jigawatts wrote:

    1. Giving up less points per game does not equal a better defense, especially when comparing to previous seasons. An easy way to give up less PPG is to slow down the tempo giving teams fewer possessions. If you aren’t doing the slowing down then the other team could be the one doing it by trying to stay close, i.e. Bennett, Sendek, etc.
    2. Not sure where your numbers are coming from but middle of the conference isn’t bad, it isn’t good either.
    3. Again, not sure where your numbers are coming from but net rating doesn’t equal good defense, just the difference between offense and defense.
    4. Again holding opponents under 65 points doesn’t equate to a good defense. Over those 5 games did State hold those 5 teams under their seasonal averages in points, offensive efficiency, four factors? I don’t know but looking at the Clemson/State game CU was under their seasonal averages for Adj. ORtg, efg% and FTRate but had a lower TO% on offense and had a higher OR%. So in 1 of those games State made it more difficult for Clemson in some ways but not all.

    As for improved defense State currently is 5pts lower than last year’s final Adj. DRtg and 0.5 pts lower than the previous year’s but historically this team is less than a point away from the average Adj. DRtg for teams under Gottfried since 2002. Let’s not go overboard here touting Gottfried for “improved” defense. It’s only improved because last year’s defense was so awful you can’t get much worse. It’s like trying to compare Gottfried to Lowe, sure he’s an improvement but that’s a pretty low bar you’re using.

    I took numbers from http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/.

    I understand all of your points. The fact remains, this team is a better defensive team. And I don’t see many posters in this forum talking about that, though I have seen a lot of posters bashing Gott for defense over the years. I’m not saying that hasn’t been warranted, though I think it may have gone overboard at times. I am simply noting that it is improved.

    03/04/2015 at 2:37 PM #77566
    Rick
    Keymaster

    I for one agree that hte defense has improved. We are not a bad defensive team now.
    At the same time it seems the offense has become more stagnant and ineffective.
    My hope for Gott was he would improve the defense to at least an average level (done) while keeping the offensive efficiency he has had in the past (it has slipped, at least objectively).

    03/04/2015 at 2:42 PM #77567
    Tau837
    Participant
    Rick wrote:

    I for one agree that hte defense has improved. We are not a bad defensive team now.
    At the same time it seems the offense has become more stagnant and ineffective.
    My hope for Gott was he would improve the defense to at least an average level (done) while keeping the offensive efficiency he has had in the past (it has slipped, at least objectively).

    Agree that watching games, it seems the offense has slipped. Yet:

    State is 4th in the conference in ppg (70.6).
    State has the 5th best offensive rating (113.84) in the conference.

    Some of State’s offense slipping has to do with the SOS. Some of it has to do with slower pace, whether by our choice or as dictated by opponents. Some of it has to do with the dropoff from Buckets to Lacey, who has not been playing particularly well down the stretch. And in comparison to before last season, the dropoff from Brown, Leslie, Howell, Wood to the current group, which is not nearly as skilled offensively.

    The fact is, our current personnel lends itself to better defense than our previous groups, but also does not lend itself as well to strong offense. And we are seeing both of those things reflected in our play.

    03/04/2015 at 2:47 PM #77568
    Rick
    Keymaster
    Tau837 wrote:
    VaWolf82 wrote:

    Context Matters

    Agree and yet you choose to nitpick a point made to counter the assumption that no one would transfer after this year.

    Context matters.

    I did not address any comment saying we should not assume there will be no transfers this offseason. I addressed a comment that said Gott averages 2 transfers per year. Technically, he averages 1.75 transfers per year. But applying context, he has lost 1 transfer per year from his own recruits and after the dust settled on the transition.

    2 transfers per year is twice as many as 1 transfer per year. If that is nitpicking, so be it.

    I am not sure how you could call it anything but nitpicking. I looked at all players that had played under Gott. You expanded it to include Harrow even though Harrow never played a single second under Gott and the obvious reason is so you could “prove me wrong” to say it was less than 2 a year. You then further separated it out to only players “he recruited” so you could get the number down to one.

    If we want to call it one a year that is fine as it is a distiction without a difference. It still does not counter my argument that we should expect a transfer this year. Maybe this is the first year Gott keeps all his players. I hope so but history argues against it.

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