The goal of our last look at the Bubble is to outline the goals that the different teams should have for the ACCT…whether that goal is just making the NCAAT or to improve the seeding. I don’t expect there to be a lot of controversy, but there are still some interesting tidbits to discuss for those of us that enjoy picking apart the selection and seeding process.
About three weeks ago, I said that it was no-brainer to predict that a 4-1 record down the stretch would secure a NCAAT bid for State before the ACCT. While I usually leave the odds-making to BJD, I would have placed the odds of State delivering on that record at less than 5%. If anyone had proposed that State would meet that goal and that the one loss would be an ass-kicking at BC, they would have been banned as a troll. Well ain’t life strange? (Note that I hope everyone appreciates the irony of an engineer turning over anything mathematical to a non-technical type.)
As we’ll see in a few minutes, State’s RPI is in the historical bubble zone, but they do not need any more wins to be guaranteed an NCAAT bid. Every win in the ACCT is simply gravy, with the goal of moving above the 8/9 seed spot. When you look at the historical winning percentages in the NCAAT, 10 Seeds and 6 Seeds have better winning percentages than the 9 and 5 seeds respectively. That makes sense to me because you are avoiding playing a #1 seed as long as possible. So while I’ll still pull for State to beat Pitt, if a loss moved State to a 10 seed, then that wouldn’t really be the end of the world.
So here are the RPI summary table and graphs with the numbers coming from CBS:
Since ESPN is nice enough to put their info in such useful categories, let’s include some other stuff that the Selection Committee will use:
VIRGINIA
For the second year in a row, UVA won the regular season AND lost on the road to end the regular season. IF they win the ACCT, then they will still be guaranteed a 1-seed. A loss might drop them to a 2-seed but you really need to line up the Top-10 teams and compare their accomplishments to draw any hard and fast conclusions. Even a loss on Thursday would still give them a comparable record to Duke (with the exception of the home-loss to Duke).
DUKE
Duke is clearly the hottest team in the ACC right now. Well maybe it’s not clear to everyone. I was shocked to see that UNC was a 1.5 pt favorite over Duke for their rematch in Chapel Hill. While I would generally never consider betting on college sports, that bet looked like a no-brainer to me.
Most of the brackets that I’ve seen (which isn’t that many) have both UVA and Duke as a #1 seed while evidently ignoring the fact that at least one of those teams will lose again this week. But in the end, it’s a waiting game for the conference tournaments to end and then we (and everyone else) will see what we see. But I don’t see any way for Duke to drop lower than a 2-Seed.
SEEDING FOR NOTRE DAME AND UNC
I’ve admitted many times that I’ve never made a habit of studying the seeding process beyond the fact that RPI and regular season conference finish can both be shown to greatly affect seeding. So I’m really interested in seeing where ND and UNC are seeded this year. As I said several weeks ago, ND is probably better than their RPI ranking since it is being held down by a ridiculously easy OOC SOS. If it were up to me, I would seed them roughly based on their RPI and figure that they got what they deserved.
On the other hand, UNC’s RPI ranking is better than the team (in my eyes) and is being propped up by an especially strong SOS (OOC and overall). You could argue UNC’s seeding from either direction so I won’t spend a lot of time on it. But here are a few things that to ponder:
- UNC’s last win against a Top 50 team was Jan 14 in Raleigh.
- Their record against the RPI Top 25 is 1-7; implying that they’re not really a Top 25 team.
- If you’re going to “punish” ND for a weak schedule, shouldn’t you reward a team for a good record against a tough schedule?
What I (or the bracketologists) think doesn’t really matter much and of course the conference tournaments will likely impact the seeding as well. But I’m hoping that we will garner a few clues about the seeding process from these two teams to help us better gage similar teams in the future.
PITT
Well Pitt has managed to tank the end of their season after a really impressive turn-around. Three consecutive losses (@Wake, Miami, @FSU) has dropped them about 35 spots in the RPI ranking. While they never got the respect I thought that they had earned after improving their RPI ranking 60 spots, pretty much everyone has completely written them off now. But from our days on the Herbble, we know that all hope is not completely lost. A win against State and then against Duke would absolutely move them into the field.
MIAMI
In a great case of irony, Miami has managed to get to the First Four Out on several brackets by posting a mediocre record against one of the easiest ACC schedules. Since I’ve never heard anyone mention unbalanced conference schedules impacting the selection process, there is no reason to think that anyone besides us even bothers to look. But as always, things are what they are. In the end, they have two wins worth noting (Duke, State) and will need another one on Thursday if they want to play in the NCAAT.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS
I’m pleasantly surprised by how the season has played out thus far. Losing THE MAN on a one-man team can often lead to disaster. But Trevor Lacey has been as good (or even better) than advertised. As frequently discussed on our forums, there has been noticeable growth in a number of other players and Gott has by far the largest rotation of his tenure at State. All of this has produced a noticeable improvement over last year’s team, even with the loss of the ACC Player of the Year.
On a personal level, I’m neither as optimistic as some nor as pessimistic as others about the future of State Basketball. I think that State fans might as well hope for the best while understanding that it is unlikely that State will consistently contend for a top position in the ACC. My best-case scenario was first proposed by BJD several years ago….hope for a peak-type season every few years. Gott hasn’t really produced one of those so-far (and no, a Sweet 16 doesn’t count as a “peak” season) but this year’s team at least gives me hope that he could have some peak seasons in the future. Of course, this season isn’t over and could still be a “peak” season…but the recent ass-kicking from a really bad BC team keeps my expectations firmly grounded.
On a less serious note….Earlier this year, we had some really bold predictions on where the bottom of the ACC would finish up. So let’s take this last opportunity to give yet another example of how poorly any of us can predict the future:
My guess is that the overall increase in SOS from playing ACC teams more than offsets the reduction in winning percentage that will nearly always come from a stronger schedule. In contrast, the mid and low majors will see their RPI ranking fall as their SOS falls (in most cases). While it should be possible to prove/disprove my conjectures with a little study….is it really worth the effort? I didn’t think so either.
