State Improves NCAAT Resume

14-15 Basketball59

As of this morning, State (17-11) should be squarely in the NCAAT field as a 10-seed. With last night’s win, State’s RPI is 38, SOS is 2 and they are 3-4 vs. Top 25 and 3-5 vs. Top 26-50, with wins over Duke (RPI 4), at Carolina (RPI 17) and at Louisville (RPI 18).

ESPN

Consider this: State’s win in Chapel Hill may actually help the Heels, because now Carolina’s win in Raleigh puts State on their (very weak) quality wins list.

Next up, another must-win: Boston College (Saturday, noon).

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14-15 Basketball

Home › Forums › State Improves NCAAT Resume

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  • 02/25/2015 at 7:34 AM #75845
    StateFans
    Keymaster

    As of this morning, State (17-11) should be squarely in the NCAAT field as a 10-seed. With last night’s win, State’s RPI is 38, SOS is 2 and they are
    [See the full post at: State Improves NCAAT Resume]

    02/25/2015 at 8:02 AM #75853
    Fastback68
    Participant

    State could wind up with sole possession of the 4th seed with three more victories. Louisville, Syracuse and UNX have some tough remaining games to play before yearend.

    02/25/2015 at 8:12 AM #75856
    Heelh8r
    Participant

    You mean, they should be thanking us for that butt whipping? Heeheehee

    02/25/2015 at 8:15 AM #75859
    TheAliasTroll
    Participant

    Fire Gott!

    PackFansNation.com
    02/25/2015 at 8:33 AM #75861
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    Tying Louisville for the 4 seed would also be fine, for obvious reasons.

    Ideal scenario, we win out and get the 4 seed. Louisville is the 5, we beat them in the quarters.

    Regardless of what happens after that, I think that gets us to the 7 line.*

    * This is is NOT to say the NCAAT bid should be taken for granted, we absolutely could still lose any or all of our remaining games if we lose our focus and/or intensity. Just that is our best case scenario.

    02/25/2015 at 8:44 AM #75863
    TheAliasTroll
    Participant

    …. and Tarheels will probably fall from #15 to #17 in the polls after losing 5 of their last 7

    PackFansNation.com
    02/25/2015 at 8:45 AM #75864
    JohnGalt78
    Participant

    Gott to get focused today and stay focused up in Boston. Celebration continues for us fans but the guys need to hit it hard this morning with ONE goal….beat BC.

    02/25/2015 at 8:48 AM #75865
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    For those that hang on the too-frequently released brackets, I’s clear to me that the bracketologists DO NOT start each bracket with a blank sheet of paper. They are caught between defending their last predication and making a new one.

    That’s why I prefer the Dance Card when evaluating the bubble. Math makes no predictions, nor has any memory. The results simply reflect all of the information available at that particular moment.

    Maybe the best way to think of the media-driven brackets is that they are sort of like a moving average. When a team is falling or rising, it takes a little time for the actual story to show up.

    02/25/2015 at 8:51 AM #75866
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    Math is the true essence of beauty.

    As are Chan Marshall and Emily Haines, naturally. Back to your regularly scheduled programming and my very manly cider hangover.

    02/25/2015 at 8:53 AM #75868
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster
    TheAliasTroll wrote:

    …. and Tarheels will probably fall from #15 to #17 in the polls after losing 5 of their last 7

    Back in the days of “The Great Herb Debate”, I looked at the NCAAT results of the RPI Top 25 and the AP Top 25 and found something interesting. For the years that I looked at, the AP Top 10 had more predictive value than the RPI Top 10, while the AP 11-25 did worse than the RPI.

    I used your argument to explain the difference. When a team starts losing, it won’t take too long to drop out of the AP Top 10. But the RPI uses the entire year so doesn’t necessarily reflect how a team is playing at tournament time. The other effect is that some teams hang around in the AP Top 25 based on reputation more than results.

    02/25/2015 at 8:54 AM #75869
    4in12
    Participant

    Fire Gott!

    LOL – literally

    02/25/2015 at 8:59 AM #75872
    BassPacker
    Participant

    Work to be done…much work to be done….beat BC. Beat Clemson. Beat Syracuse. Then KNOW that we are squarely in the NCAAT. Just too early to take anything for granted. A lot of basketball to play with a lot of implications if just one game we don’t show up. Cue the Aerosmith…..”Living on the Edge”…

    02/25/2015 at 10:00 AM #75883
    pack_time
    Participant

    STATE is now a 5 seed according to USA Today as of 8:30 this morning.

    02/25/2015 at 10:15 AM #75886
    theghost
    Participant

    so 2003 was the last win in the hole. How about an even more rare occurrence last night – when was the last time the Pack drew more fouls (called fouls, I mean) and had more FT attempts than the holes? Not to mention turnovers and rebounds. The low score hides the fact that this was a beatdown. I’m sure roy will call it an off night, but either the heels were exposed as frauds (I mean on the court), or the Pack has turned into a real basketball team (or both).

    Interesting article on ESPN’s blog about Barber stepping up his play – makes the case for the latter. Hope it continues to prove true in Boston.

    02/25/2015 at 10:31 AM #75890
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster
    pack_time wrote:

    STATE is now a 5 seed according to USA Today as of 8:30 this morning.

    Then that tells me to ignore the USA Today’s bracket. BJD’s program for reaching a 7 seed seems more accurate to me.

    02/25/2015 at 10:35 AM #75892
    tractor57
    Participant

    The path is simple – win baby win. If the Pack does that good things will follow.

    02/25/2015 at 10:53 AM #75896
    lawful
    Participant

    Thank you Alias. Still plenty of time to have our hearts ripped out. BJD, you can contact me when you want some real instruction on pessimism.

    02/25/2015 at 10:56 AM #75898
    wufpup76
    Keymaster
    VaWolf82 wrote:

    For those that hang on the too-frequently released brackets, I’s clear to me that the bracketologists DO NOT start each bracket with a blank sheet of paper. They are caught between defending their last predication and making a new one.

    That’s why I prefer the Dance Card when evaluating the bubble. Math makes no predictions, nor has any memory. The results simply reflect all of the information available at that particular moment.

    Maybe the best way to think of the media-driven brackets is that they are sort of like a moving average. When a team is falling or rising, it takes a little time for the actual story to show up.

    ^All of yes!

    02/25/2015 at 10:58 AM #75899
    OG – RedTerrors
    Participant

    I think we would have to win out, up to and maybe wining the ACC title game to get a 5 seed….not sure where that comes from.

    02/25/2015 at 11:02 AM #75900
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster
    lawful wrote:

    BJD, you can contact me when you want some real instruction on pessimism.

    He may need some refresher training because he’s been way too optimistic recently. Make’s me think that he’s getting laid on a regular basis.

    02/25/2015 at 11:40 AM #75910
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    From Jerry Palm

    North Carolina State picks up another huge win at North Carolina: NC State went to Chapel Hill and held the Tar Heels under 50 points in a 58-46 win. That’s two big road wins now for the Wolfpack, who improved to 17-11. That is not a slump proof record. They don’t need any more quality wins. Just wins.

    That’s what I was thinking after the L’ville win.

    02/25/2015 at 12:16 PM #75917
    PapaJohn
    Participant

    A very special win last night. We went in with a clear game plan and the team, for the most part, executed it. Credit to the coaches and the players. A signature win, no doubt.

    But more importantly, the team has played consistently well three games in a row.

    02/25/2015 at 12:19 PM #75918
    Texpack
    Participant
    OG – RedTerrors wrote:

    I think we would have to win out, up to and maybe wining the ACC title game to get a 5 seed….not sure where that comes from.

    If we won the ACC Tournament after winning out we would be 23 or 24 and 11. I’m still not sure that scenario, which is several galaxies beyond wildly optimistic, would get us a Top 20 RPI. Unless we make the ACC Finals, we may well be at our high water mark in the RPI.

    I’ll repeat what I said in the “offensive” thread, we now have an opportunity to close the deal. The boys in Vegas won’t have a point spread on any of these games wider than 4-5 points and we should be the underdog in Littlejohn by a point or two.

    This is a tough stretch with the only home game coming against a Syracuse team that is playing it’s best ball right now and will be putting guys out on the court who KNOW they are playing in their final college game.

    02/25/2015 at 1:13 PM #75938
    13OT
    Participant

    As long as State plays the kind of defense we saw last night, they are going to Dance in March.

    They could even be Sweet.

    02/25/2015 at 2:34 PM #75956
    choppack1
    Participant

    Texpack – I am not sure if we have “peaked” rpi-wise. If we beat BC our “new” RPI will probably get another bump….if we go 2-1, you are probably correct.

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