Are you ready to win a title? (Part I)

Everyone says their goal is to “Win It All Baby!!” but do they really have a team that can have their One Shining Moment? This will be a 3 Part Series taking a look at what all National Championship Teams have in common between 2002 and 2014. Is it talent level? What about the systems they run? How about tempo? Are they full of upperclassmen? We’re going to take a look at the numbers, lay them out and then see where they lead us. There is no predetermined outcome to this, so please don’t go screaming about Anti-this, Pro-that stuff. I started this endeavor to find out what will it take for NC State to win its third National Championship (or any team to win a title) and then evaluate where NCSU as a program stands today. In this first part we are going to take a look at various National Champions from present back to 2002 (that’s how far back my data goes) as well as the Final Four members of those seasons because the Cinderella’s have usually been weeded out by then. Let’s get started…

NOTE: Data is the final numbers from Kenpom.com. Since beginning this analysis KP has included both final and pre-tourney numbers in his historical data.

First let’s look at the National Champions from 2002-2014.

As we can see by the table, over last 13 seasons, there have been:

• 9 Different Schools
• 10 Different Coaches
• 7 Defenses that are Mostly Man, 1 Mostly Zone, the rest too close to tell
• Tempos have been “Watching Grass Grow” Slow all the way to Run’N’Gun Fast.
• Experience Level has ranged from Diaper Dandies to Retirement Home.

What does this tell us? It tells us that the style of play and the experience level doesn’t matter. The number of coaches tells us it’s not a small handful winning it every season. Whether it’s Man or Zone it doesn’t matter.

So what does matter? Well the object of the game is to outscore your opponent. The best way to outscore your opponents is to have a good offense AND a good defense. If we’re going to compare different teams over multiple years we need to compare apples to apples and get it down to a single number to find the value of each team. I call it ODS, or the Spread. ODS is simply the difference between a team’s Offensive Efficiency (OE) and its Defensive Efficiency (DE). For those who aren’t familiar with Offensive and Defensive Efficiency it’s simply the number of points scored per 100 possessions. By using efficiencies we eliminate the silly Apples to Buicks comparison of Points per Game between different teams that play at different tempos. Efficiencies allow us to compare the offenses and defenses of different tempo teams evenly. ODS takes it ones step higher to compare the teams while using both efficiencies. Please Note that Ken Pomeroy states that his adjusted efficiency numbers are not designed to determine how good a team is for the season but how good they are at that moment; that’s why I feel comfortable using the final numbers when talking about the NCAA Tournament.

Using a bell curve to group the population of National Champions we see there have been a small group (3) with an ODS range of 20-25 but a much larger group of teams (10) with an ODS range of 25-35. This tells us that while it’s not impossible to win the national championship with an ODS below 25 the odds are ever in your favor to be above it.

Breaking down each team we see their final Offensive and Defensive Efficiencies and the ODS. UConn is 2 of the 3 teams to win with a sub-25 ODS, the latest being in 2014 with the lowest ODS in the last 13 seasons. I highlighted the teams with a +30 ODS and here’s why, since 2002 only 3 out of 8 teams with an ODS of 30 or more has failed to win the National Title:

1. Duke 2002 (S16) – Lost to Runner Up Indiana.
2. Illinois 2005 (Runner Up) – Lost to UNC who also had +30 ODS.
3. Ohio State 2011 (S16) – Lost to Final Four Kentucky.

Looking back at the final numbers for all teams, if a team finishes with an ODS +25 you have a 25% chance in winning the championship where if you expand to include the 3 “Cinderella’s” in the 20-25 range your chances decrease to only 8%.

When I say “Cinderella’s” I mean it in today’s environment. The championship teams’ start the NCAAT in the Top 5 of ODS Rankings with the lone exceptions having been:

• The Bronze Lucky Horseshoe Award goes to the 2011 Connecticut Huskies (#3 Seed) who started the NCAA Tournament #13 (ODS Ranking) and finished #8.
• The Silver Lucky Horseshoe Award goes to the 2003 Syracuse Orangemen (#3 Seed) who started the NCAA Tournament #18 and finished #6.
• The Golden Lucky Horseshoe is awarded to the 2014 Connecticut Huskies (#7 Seed) who began the NCAA Tournament in a three way tie for #25 with an ODS of 16.6 and finished with 20.4 at #13.

Just so I’m clear, I’m not saying you MUST have an ODS of 25 or more to win the championship but it does greatly increase your chances. The 2014 UConn Huskies entered the tournament with only a 4% chance of winning the belt.

DIGGING DEEPER

The OE and DE give us an idea of where you need to be shooting for in order to be a national champ. The range of the OE is larger than the DE but one thing is clear, a very strong Offense AND Defense are necessary.

If a strong Offense and Defense are necessary then what are most National Champs doing to make them so good?

Let’s break down both sides into the Four Factors: Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%), Turnover Percentage (TO%), Offensive Rebounding Percentage (OR%), Free Throw Rate (FTRate).

Quick definitions:

Effective field goal percentage is like regular field goal percentage except that it gives 50% more credit for made three-pointers.
Turnover percentage is a pace-independent measure of ball security.
Offensive rebounding percentage is a measure of the possible rebounds that are gathered by the offense.
Free throw rate captures a team’s ability to get to the free throw line.

Dean Oliver has already taken the time to rate the value of each of these Four Factors as it applies to the NBA:

1. Shooting (40%)
2. Turnovers (25%)
3. Rebounding (20%)
4. Free Throws (15%)

Does this translate back to the NCAA? Let’s take a look at the National Champs and compare their Four Factors against the NCAA Average for their season.

Let’s look at the Offense first:

The table is too big to fit in the article so please click here.

With the exception of the Cinderella’s each team is very efficient on offense, even 2 of the 3 Cinderella’s are pretty good but aren’t dominate in a couple of factors, just slightly above average. One thing of note is the 3 seasons where the champion was below average in FTRate all come from the same team, Connecticut. Here is a list of things that stick out to me that every team needs to focus on:

1. Don’t have an Adj. OE below 115. Below 115 and you need a miracle run.
2. Shoot the ball really well. DUH!!! Try shooting better than 52% eFG and you’ll be okay.
3. There’s not a big range in TO% but just better than average okay? The fewer possessions you give away the better you’ll be.
4. You must be strong at Offensive Rebounding, there’s just no way of getting around that. This is where I feel TO% and OR% is even in college basketball.

It doesn’t matter if you like to shoot it more from beyond the arc or take it inside more, either way works IF you can score effectively. In the end, fast tempo, slow tempo, shooting outside, shooting inside, whatever style you want to play it doesn’t matter. What does matter is being efficient at whatever it is you do.

Now the Defense:

Using a small sample size of just the last 13 National Champions we see a really good shooting defense is necessary for everyone. Only UNC has won with less than 3% below the national average. On average though, you want an eFG% of less than 45%.

Looking at the remaining 3 factors the National Champions have hovered around the national average in TO% and OR% but are strong at FTRate. Is this a function of favorable calls or just being so much better than others they don’t give their opponents an opportunity at free throws in comparison to their shooting? I think we need more teams to compare to find out how much the values translate to the NCAA. We’ll revisit this in Part 2 when we expand to include other rounds of the NCAA Tournament. One thing I do see in the champions list is if they are “weak” in one factor they make up for it in another factor and the majority make up for average TO% and/or OR% by not fouling.

SUMMARY

It doesn’t take a particular style of offense or defense in order to win the national championship. It doesn’t take a team full of upperclassmen either. It takes a coach who emphasizes the need for a strong efficient offense and an even stronger efficient defense to put you in the best chance of winning it all. Yes I know this isn’t earth shattering, breaking news where needing a strong offense and a strong defense to win but what I’ve laid out for you is a breakdown of those teams to show what they have in common in order to become a champion. If you shoot for the averages: ODS = 28, OE = 118, DE = 90 you’ll put yourself in a much better position (if you are even in a position) to win the title. Develop the defense through tough defensive shooting, eFG% < 45%, and getting really good at one other factor while being at least average in the other 2 factors. The style and system a coach uses doesn’t matter, simply attaining those numbers do. Let me reiterate, I’m not saying you can’t have a Cinderella pop up and win it (UConn 2014 & 2011 as well as Syracuse 2003) on occasion but if you’re serious about winning a national title then Hope (hoping you get hot for 3 weeks, hoping you can just outscore them on offense) isn’t a viable strategy.

About 1.21 Jigawatts

Class of '98, Mechanical Engineer, State fan since arriving on campus and it's been a painful ride ever since. I live by the Law of NC State Fandom, "For every Elation there is an equal and opposite Frustration."

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Home Forums Are you ready to win a title? (Part I)

Viewing 23 posts - 26 through 48 (of 48 total)
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  • #74567
    charger17
    Participant

    Great article. This is why I would pay for access to SFN. One interesting correlation I was thinking was how the backcourt seems to influence more than their “share” of the four factors. I know people have said it’s a guards game these days, but I wonder if the stats actually back that up.

    Obviously, the eFG% and TO% probably rely on guard play more on both sides of the ball (given the 3pt influence). But I wonder how much efficient guard play influences how quickly a team gets into the bonus? Seems to me this could be how quality guard play really matters. Interesting stuff. Looking forward to more. Thanks!

    #74580
    TheCOWDOG
    Moderator

    Jigsie. Pretty work, but I’m waiting for the complete installment before commenting with coherence.

    Statiscally speaking for now, one is much more likely to be mauled to death by a puma than a tabby.

    #74581
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    The statistics presented compare ratings of the champions. But to be fair, is it not possible that the non-champions had coaches that also stressed efficient offense and defense? In other words, there are some intangibles that cannot be measured (Cinderellas excluded). Sometimes one team is just luckier than the opposition (Again, Cinderellas excluded).

    If you’re consistently winning, luck has nothing to do with it.

    #74585
    wufpup76
    Keymaster

    The statistics presented compare ratings of the champions. But to be fair, is it not possible that the non-champions had coaches that also stressed efficient offense and defense? In other words, there are some intangibles that cannot be measured (Cinderellas excluded). Sometimes one team is just luckier than the opposition (Again, Cinderellas excluded).

    The way I view it is that these values are great indicators and even predictors, but far from ‘catch all’.

    #74588
    1.21 Jigawatts
    Keymaster

    I think I stated very clearly several times in the article that nothing is absolute and a 25% chance of winning is far from guaranteed. I even pointed out that those with a +30 ODS aren’t perfect but a 63% of winning it all is better than relying on “luck”.

    Luck is when preparation meets opportunity. The teams with high ODS’ have prepared and performed throughout the season to put themselves in the best position to win when the opportunity has presented itself.

    #74590
    choppack1
    Participant

    Jigs – as always great stuff. Really liked the differentiator info.

    It highlights why some of us were so down in the dumps. What I do love about gott’s last 2 teams is that they take care of the ball. I’d say, defensive positioning is key for us…that’s, when fouls, offensive rebounds and wide-ass open 3s kill us.

    #74595
    Rick
    Keymaster

    You can always tell when someone has no argument as they fall back on ‘they were lucky’

    #74597
    Rick
    Keymaster

    Jigsie. Pretty work, but I’m waiting for the complete installment before commenting with coherence.

    Statiscally speaking for now, one is much more likely to be mauled to death by a puma than a tabby.

    I am finally fluent in cowdogese.
    I understood your point

    #74600
    Wufpacker
    Participant

    Jigsie. Pretty work, but I’m waiting for the complete installment before commenting with coherence.

    Statiscally speaking for now, one is much more likely to be mauled to death by a puma than a tabby.

    I am finally fluent in cowdogese.
    I understood your point

    You poor, poor man.
    There’s no coming back from that you know?

    #74602
    Lumpy
    Participant

    Great analysis. But if I may, I’d like to show another common thread that these teams share

    2002- MD 1st rd picks: Juan Dixon, Chris Wilcox
    2003- SYR 1st rd picks: Carmelo Anthony(#3 overall),Hakim Warrick
    2004- UCONN 1st rd picks: Emeka Okafor(#1 overall), Ben Gordon(#3 overall), Josh Boone, Marcus Williams, Charlie Villanueva
    2005- UNC 1st rd picks: Ray Felton, Sean May, Rashad McCants, Marvin Williams
    2006-2007 Fla 1st rd picks: Joakim Noah,Ronnie Brewer, Al Horford (Only team to ever have 3 players selected in the first 9 picks)
    2008- KU 1st rd picks: Mario Chalmers, Darrell Arthur, Cole Aldrich
    2009- UNC 1st rd picks: Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, Ed Davis, Tyler Zeller
    2010- Duke 1st rd picks: Mason Plumlee, Miles Plumlee, Nolan Smith
    2011- UCONN 1st rd picks: Kemba Walker, Jeremy Lamb
    2012- Kentucky 1st rd picks: Anthony Davis(#1 overall), Michael Kidd Gilchrist(#2 overall), Terrence Jones, Marquis Teague
    2013- L’Ville 1st rd picks: Gorgui Deing
    2014- UCONN 1st rd picks: Shabazz Napier

    Most of these teams have multiple next level players on the court. Now of course all of these players don’t pan out in he NBA, but getting the scouts to take you in the first round says you were a top level college player. Since 1992 we have had exactly 4 players drafted in the first round and only two drafted in the 2nd. TJ Warren was far and away the most complete NBA ready player we’ve had in a long while, but to be in the discussion for national titles we are gonna need at least two and possibly 3 TJ Warrens on our roster in the same year. Gottfried is a good recruiter but we need to see some guys like Barber, Abu, and the Martins develop into those type of players before we can realistically say an NC State team is capable of winning the tournament.

    #74606
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    I never expected UNLV to win the NCAAT….but then they had Stacey Augmon and Larry Johnson along with Greg Anthony at the same time.

    #74607
    Tau837
    Participant

    Gottfried is a good recruiter but we need to see some guys like Barber, Abu, and the Martins develop into those type of players before we can realistically say an NC State team is capable of winning the tournament.

    Not sure about 1st round picks, but from our current team, I expect Anya to play in the NBA for sure. I think Barber has a good chance, Lacey has a slim chance, and it’s too early to tell for Abu and the Martins. We could look back on this team in a few years and see that it had as many as 6 NBA players.

    #74613
    MP
    Participant

    I never expected UNLV to win the NCAAT….but then they had Stacey Augmon and Larry Johnson along with Greg Anthony at the same time.

    I still can’t believe they didn’t win 2.

    #74642
    Heelh8r
    Participant

    Great analysis. But if I may, I’d like to show another common thread that these teams share

    I can certainly appreciate Jiga’s analysis but Lumpy’s post really hit home on how important great players are to winning a championship. Taking it a step further, the ’83 team had Thurl Bailey, a long time great career in the NBA. I know Lowe played a few years also. I cannot remember if Lo, Whitt, and Cozell played in the NBA, but I do believe they all played overseas successfully. And even Gannon did all right using his mouth:} The ’74 team, DT speaks for himself. Some of you can remember better than me, but I know Stoddard played MLB, and I believe Burleson and Towe both played in the NBA. Don’t know about Rivers. But it does show what great players we had in our championship years as well as the ones listed by Lumpy in recent years.

    Do we have that now? Time will tell. I doubt anyone saw Thurl Bailey developing into the player he was or having the NBA career he did during his first two years or even his junior season at State. Guggs is another example of that. With some players it is obvious how good they are and they don’t usually stay around long anymore, but others develop into great players that can win you a championship. Let’s hope that’s what we GOTT.

    #74691
    tractor57
    Participant

    To be honest Towe was a throw in to get Thompson. He was at best a journeyman and at worst only a way to increase the odds of signing Thompson.

    #74695
    Heelh8r
    Participant

    Ok, you made me look it up. Towe was drafted 3rd round by Denver (ABA) and by the Atlanta Hawks in the 4th round. He played for two years with Thompson in Denver, the first in the ABA and the second in the NBA. I have read the story about Sloan not wanting him because of his height, but he proved his worth and turned out to be a great point guard. He and Thompson practically invented the alley oop. We could not have won the championship without him.

    #74715
    1.21 Jigawatts
    Keymaster

    Great analysis. But if I may, I’d like to show another common thread that these teams share

    2002- MD 1st rd picks: Juan Dixon, Chris Wilcox
    2003- SYR 1st rd picks: Carmelo Anthony(#3 overall),Hakim Warrick
    2004- UCONN 1st rd picks: Emeka Okafor(#1 overall), Ben Gordon(#3 overall), Josh Boone, Marcus Williams, Charlie Villanueva
    2005- UNC 1st rd picks: Ray Felton, Sean May, Rashad McCants, Marvin Williams
    2006-2007 Fla 1st rd picks: Joakim Noah,Ronnie Brewer, Al Horford (Only team to ever have 3 players selected in the first 9 picks)
    2008- KU 1st rd picks: Mario Chalmers, Darrell Arthur, Cole Aldrich
    2009- UNC 1st rd picks: Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, Ed Davis, Tyler Zeller
    2010- Duke 1st rd picks: Mason Plumlee, Miles Plumlee, Nolan Smith
    2011- UCONN 1st rd picks: Kemba Walker, Jeremy Lamb
    2012- Kentucky 1st rd picks: Anthony Davis(#1 overall), Michael Kidd Gilchrist(#2 overall), Terrence Jones, Marquis Teague
    2013- L’Ville 1st rd picks: Gorgui Deing
    2014- UCONN 1st rd picks: Shabazz Napier

    Most of these teams have multiple next level players on the court. Now of course all of these players don’t pan out in he NBA, but getting the scouts to take you in the first round says you were a top level college player. Since 1992 we have had exactly 4 players drafted in the first round and only two drafted in the 2nd. TJ Warren was far and away the most complete NBA ready player we’ve had in a long while, but to be in the discussion for national titles we are gonna need at least two and possibly 3 TJ Warrens on our roster in the same year. Gottfried is a good recruiter but we need to see some guys like Barber, Abu, and the Martins develop into those type of players before we can realistically say an NC State team is capable of winning the tournament.

    I’ve wanted to address this for several days but haven’t had the time. While you make a fair point about talent level and how each of those national title teams had NBA first round talent on their teams I need to point a few things out.

    1. Most of the years you have who was drafted in the first round the same year they won the national title but in 2006 you group it together with 2007. In fact in 2006 no one on Florida’s national championship was drafted in the first round, only in 2007. You also have 3 players from Duke in 2010 when in fact no one was drafted in the first round of the NBA that season as well, those players were drafted 1 and 2 years later. So while they technically were future NBA first round draft picks they weren’t the season they won the title, same for 2006.

    2. The way you present the information it comes across as they were the only team or the most loaded team with first round draft picks for each national champion when in fact only 2 teams in the 13 years did the national champions have the most first round draft picks that season and only 5 teams were tied with the most picks. Click here for a table containing a breakdown of seasons and draft picks.

    3. When you look at the table you’ll see that where talent is a good thing to have, it can provide you with a higher ceiling, that’s all it does. What you do with that talent in college, production, is the only thing that matters for winning a college national championship, not what an NBA scout thinks you have potential for in the NBA.

    4. You say NC State must have 2 or 3 future NBA players on the team at the same time and that’s a false assumption, IF you have the right coach. There have been 6 teams in the last 13 seasons that won the national title and only had at most 1 player drafted in the first round that same season. In fact having 5 draft picks in 2010 didn’t help Kentucky or 4 draft picks in 2012 for UNC.

    #74730
    Lumpy
    Participant

    Right on, Jiga. I didn’t mean to say that all those guys came out the same year, although in the case of Florida the reason no one was drafted in ’06 was that they all stuck around to defend the title in ’07 IIRC.
    What I was trying to illustrate was that, most of the time, these teams have a lot of NBA ready (at least in scouts eyes) talent to help them go deep in the tournament. They may have only had one player get drafted THAT season, but they are consistently developing guys who go to the NBA. State is not, or rather has not up to this point with a few exceptions.
    You are correct, draft picks aren’t everything. But teams that are consistently developing guys that go to the NBA are a lot more common in the final four than teams that don’t. Regardless, your research is excellent and I am totally using ODS when filling out my big money brackets this year, so big thanks for that.

    #74732
    pakfanistan
    Participant

    Hey, we’ve got three, (THREE!) players in the NBA now.

    And two of them even played together.

    #74733
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    The NBA still exists? Who knew?

    #74734
    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    ^this…. {yawn}

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
    #74738
    Heelh8r
    Participant

    Amen. I couldn’t name the three.

    #74740
    pakfanistan
    Participant

    Wow, I don’t know why I thought people would like knowing guys that played for State are enjoying some success at a higher level.

    You’re right, once they walk out the door, F’em.

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