Wins propels Pack close to Top 50 RPI

Friday was a very good day for NC State’s hopes to reach the the Wolfpack’s third consecutive NCAA Tournament. State’s big victory over Syracuse coupled with the impact of Pittburgh’s win over UNC-CHeats hsa served to make up significant room in the NCAA’s Ratings Percentage Index (RPI). As of 11:08pm, Live-RPI.com projects NC State to be sitting right outside of the Top 50 around #52.

Additionally, some other ‘bubble teams’ lost in some very ugly fashion tonight – inlcuding Minnesota (lost by 26 to Wisconsin) and Missouri (lost by 23 to Florida).

Now that the ACC officials have done their part to insure that Duke is going to advance to play State on Saturday in the ACC Tournament, all of the fly by night know it alls are going to talk about how NC State ‘must win’ on Saturday to advance to the NCAA Tournament. Well, that might end up being true. But, it isn’t necessarily a fact. NC State’s RPI will probably rise just for playing (currently #7) Duke, regardless of win or loss. Where it will end nobody knows. But, take a look at historical data regarding Top 50 teams from the ACC and let’s get a feel for how that should shake out.

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13-14 Basketball

Home Forums Wins propels Pack close to Top 50 RPI

Viewing 16 posts - 51 through 66 (of 66 total)
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  • #46823
    1.21 Jigawatts
    Keymaster

    It would be nice if one time the top teams in the ACC would line up and play like crap on our way to a title.

    #46824
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    I don’t think we’re the first team out. Maybe like 3rd-5th to last. The uncertainty is a 1 vs. a 2 seed in the NIT.

    NCAAT? We have ZERO chance. Watch the selection show only for general entertainment purposes.

    #46826
    SaccoV
    Participant

    No kidding, Jigs.

    #46827
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    We’re still on the 7th position on the out list. Probably not going to happen.

    #46828
    Texpack
    Participant

    When you start comparing bubble teams and making the case for them, it’s like trying to figure out which fat kid should be on the 4 X 100 relay team.

    Other than conventional wisdom going into this weekend, we are as good as any of the last 4 in group but you can easily explain why we shouldn’t be in as well.

    Win either the cheats game or the first Cuse game and we would be in comfortably. Win vs WFU and Mizzou and we would be in. Our season was an accurate representation of who we were, a team with a lot of flaws that at times could patch together stretches of above average play but could play like doodoo for just as long.

    I still love the freshman bigs. With the way this staff helped Calvin and Howell I’m looking forward to those guys getting better. Cat even matured. You could see the difference between the game today and the game in Durham. The NIT experience will help the young guys

    #46830
    Wufpacker
    Participant

    When you start comparing bubble teams and making the case for them, it’s like trying to figure out which fat kid should be on the 4 X 100 relay team.

    LMAO….but so true.

    #46831
    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    … Believe it or not…

    our Kids have been under “tremendous” pressure this season… and I’m not talking about the normal Tobacco Road stuff..

    It’s this.. every day since August, every one of them has been asked to do a whole of things they didn’t know they could do in a very, very short period of time… and every one of them has responded in a positive way…

    If we go to NCAA tournament … we’re gonna travel a long way for one game and come right back home.

    If we go to the NIT… we could play 3-4 games and the kids could just play and have some ‘real fun’ on the court and maybe even win the Tournament. And they all have something bigger to shoot for next season.

    Same for our Coaches.

    The NIT really might be the best reward for what has been, by most all accounts, a successful season…

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
    #46835
    1.21 Jigawatts
    Keymaster

    At least there are a few accurate braketologist who think the Pack should be in.

    THE TOUGH CALLS
    Nebraska: The Cornhuskers (19-12) are 8-9 against the top 100 (not bad), won at Michigan State and haven’t done anything remotely bad in nearly two months. Their strength of schedule raises no flags, but their 4-11 road/neutral record does. A top-50 RPI won’t hurt, either. Verdict: IN

    Brigham Young: What a difficult profile to discern. The Cougars (23-11) have a great RPI (31), and the sort of nonconference strength of schedule (4) that tends to be rewarded. BYU is decent away from Provo (9-10) and has a winning record against the top 100 (8-7), but also has four losses to teams outside the top 100 and just lost its No. 2 scorer (guard Kyle Collinsworth) to an ACL tear. It’s a real coin flip. Verdict: IN

    N.C. State: The Wolfpack (21-13) has a winning record away from Raleigh (8-7), fairly inoffensive bad losses (Miami and Wake Forest) and did its best work (beating Syracuse in Greensboro and Pittsburgh and Tennessee on the road) outside its own building. Of the remaining teams, there’s less bad about N.C. State, and sometimes that’s good enough. Verdict: IN

    Southern Methodist: The Mustangs (23-9) are yet another bit of evidence that human polls are entirely worthless for a bracketing endeavor. While they are good away from home (8-8) and respectable against the top 50 (4-5), they played the nation’s No. 296 nonconference schedule. The last team to play a nonconference schedule worse than 250th and earn anything between a No. 9 and No. 16 seed was 2006 Air Force. The committee routinely punishes teams that don’t play difficult nonconference schedules, and SMU probably will be no different. Verdict: OUT

    Wisconsin-Green Bay: The wild card in all of this, the Phoenix (24-6) owns a victory over Virginia, an 11-3 record away from home and a winning record against the top 100 (4-3). There are no nonconference strength of schedule issues here (52nd), though Horizon League play brought the overall SOS number down to 144th. If the committee is going to show clemency to any team, it is probably Green Bay, but it should also be noted the Phoenix lost in their conference semifinals on their own court. Verdict: OUT

    California: There’s some nice wins for the Golden Bears (19-13), including a Feb. 1 upset of Arizona. But there’s also a lot of losses, a 4-10 mark against the top 50, a 5-11 record against the top 100, a 6-9 mark away from Berkeley, and an ugly loss to Southern California (RPI: 175). That’s probably not going to cut it for much more than an NIT No. 1 seed. Verdict: OUT

    #46837
    1.21 Jigawatts
    Keymaster

    If we go to NCAA tournament … we’re gonna travel a long way for one game and come right back home.

    If we go to the NIT… we could play 3-4 games and the kids could just play and have some ‘real fun’ on the court and maybe even win the Tournament. And they all have something bigger to shoot for next season.

    Same for our Coaches.

    The NIT really might be the best reward for what has been, by most all accounts, a successful season…

    I couldn’t disagree more. The NIT isn’t worth anything, if it was then all these teams that make it the year before should improve the next year right? College basketball is now a year to year sport, what you did last year has almost no bearing on what you’ll do the next. Getting into the NCAAT for 3 straight years, even if you play only one game, is worth 1000x more than any run in the NIT.

    #46842
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    Bill argument is valid if edited to say it’s a reasonable consolation prize (given the nature of the roster this year). So…not as disappointing or irrelevant as it normally would be.

    But the NCAAT is always, always better. Losing by 40 in Dayton is better than winning the NIT. And I say that as someone who is positive about us playing in the NIT this year. There’s just no reason to delude ourselves about it.

    #46843
    VaWolf82
    Keymaster

    N.C. State: The Wolfpack (21-13) has a winning record away from Raleigh (8-7), fairly inoffensive bad losses (Miami and Wake Forest) and did its best work (beating Syracuse in Greensboro and Pittsburgh and Tennessee on the road) outside its own building. Of the remaining teams, there’s less bad about N.C. State, and sometimes that’s good enough. Verdict: IN

    He uses the same sorts of logic that I’ve always used. But he sees a lot of importance with road wins and I’ve never even looked at those. Herb’s teams kept getting in without any during the regular season, but got a big win in the ACCT three times (#1 twice and #2 once). I don’t think that he’s right about State. But if he is, then I’ll definitely start paying attention to road/neutral wins.

    I don’t usually play in the world of IF, but State definitely got close enough this year that you wouldn’t have to change much to have State comfortably IN. As best I remember, this is the first time that State has gotten close without getting in since the NCAAT expanded to 64 teams.

    #46846
    1.21 Jigawatts
    Keymaster

    Well they’ve got me interested enough to watch the whole show tonight. It’ll be interesting to see if they do take into account the location of the bigger wins and the injury to V at the beginning of the year, since it’s reported that both the entire year is taken into account as are key injuries.

    #46847
    Texpack
    Participant

    Dance Card has us three spots out. A Providence loss last night might might have gotten us in. The teams above us but out are SMU and Sou. Miss. The teams that are in that you could argue about are Iowa, BYU, Nebraska, and Cal.

    I’ll put our odds at 26.6%. As a 12 seed we could beat the right 5 seed. That’s why the NCAA would be my first choice.

    I really do feel like our biggest disadvantage in the whole thing was winning our biggest game late when it becomes a hassle to juggle the field.

    #46848
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    If we get in we’re likely headed to Dayton for the play in round. That would put us as an 11 seed playing a 6 seed if we were to advance.

    #46851
    BJD95
    Keymaster

    I repeat, odds are zero. Get past the “bargaining” stage of grief, people!!

    #46858
    bill.onthebeach
    Participant

    Beej.. I agree with everything you said but this….

    Losing by 40 in Dayton is better than winning the NIT.

    Unfortunately, if we lose a “Play In” game by 40 in GodKnowsWhereEVERwithoutADecentAirport then it only because nobody gave a sh%t… and that’s the worst possible outcome…. especially with these kids who have busted their A$$es all season..

    Don’t think, however, that it couldn’t happen…
    I still got that second game in the NCAA last year in my head….

    Either way it goes… NCAA or NIT… I’m happy…
    I am just not going to be upset and complain when we Win the NIT…

    #NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!
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