(12) NC STATE vs (5) SAINT LOUIS Preview

13-14 Basketball896

Time: 7:20 pm
Location: Orlando, FL
TV: TNT
Announcers: Brian Anderson, Dan Bonner and Kristine Leahy

The Pack is in the Round of 64 after defeating the Xavier Musketeers 74-59 in the First Four match in Dayton, OH. The Wolfpack put together one of their best all-around performances this season by getting almost a complete team effort in multiple facets on both ends of the court. Sure the Pack has been more efficient on offense this season but increasing their performance on defense just a little, it more than made up for any drop off in offensive efficiency. Anthony Barber was sick and it effected his time on the court and Warren was saddled with two quick fouls at the beginning of the game which slowed him down but everyone stepped up until he was able to find his grove. With the win the Pack has moved on to Orlando, FL to face the Saint Louis Billikens.

Getting to know them

The Billikens have had a tremendous year in the A-10, jumping out to a 25-2 (12-0) record, with the 2 losses being a 63-57 loss to Wisconsin on a neutral court and a 70-65 loss to undefeated Wichita State at home. Then something happened, St. Louis lost at home to lowly Duquesne and stumbled the rest of the way to a 26-6 (13-3) record, including a first round exit in the A-10 tournament to St. Bonaventure. St. Louis starts 5 seniors, who are in their third NCAAT but doesn’t go very deep into their bench very often. They aren’t a very tall team either, outside of a couple of 6-11 guys, they top out at 6-6.

The Billikens strength is in their defense. It’s not shutdown, low scoring type of defense, more of a make you work extra hard for your points, make you less efficient to compensate for their own low offensive efficiency. Little things like limiting the three, good defensive rebounding to prevent second chance points, forcing turnovers, and not sending the opposition to the line much.

Probable Starters
#5 Jordair Jet (6-1 215 SR) Guard – Jett has an amazing Assist Rate of 34.4%, which ranks #23 in the nation but with having the ball so much means he also has a lot of opportunities to turn the ball over, TORate 20.2%. Jett doesn’t shoot the three, only have 34 3fga this season but he does have a lot of two’s, eFG 50%, and draws a lot of fouls, 5.8 per 40, so he’s likely driving a lot to the basket. Oh yeah and he’s the A-10 Player of the Year, so he’s got that going for him.

#11 Mike McCall (6-0 180 SR) Guard – McCall is the shooting guard and he’s been pretty good this year, 109 ORtg, shoots as many 3’s as 2’s, an eFG 51%, and good at FT’s, though he doesn’t get to the line much. Can’t leave him alone on the perimeter.

#30 Jake Barnett (6-5 205 SR) Forward – Barnett is the least effective scoring option of the starters. He only has a 90 ORtg, barely shooting any 2’s, mainly living on the perimeter jacking 3’s and not that great at 30%. He’s okay at defensive rebounding 12.2% but has a tendancy to turn the ball over at 19% TORate.

#21 Dwayne Evans (6-6 230 SR) Forward – Evan has okay numbers, a 103 ORtg, 50% eFG (doesn’t shoot the 3), but is good at rebounding 8% OR and 17% DR, and drawing fouls to get to the line where he shoots 74%.

#51 Rob Loe (6-11 245 SR) Center – Loe is the match up nightmare for the Pack, he’s taken 123 2FGA (.593) and 115 3FGA (.296). Because he shoots so many 3’s his Offensive Rebounding isn’t that good but he makes up for it on defense where he’s grabbing 16% DR and Blocks 4.7% of shots (#238 nationally). This is where I think we need Washington guarding him on the perimeter and switching up when he goes inside. Did I forget to mention Loe is from New Zealand? Battle of the Bigs from Down Under.

Bench
#2 Austin McBroom (5-9 165 SO), #54 John Manning (6-11 240 JR), #1 Grandy Glaze (6-6 235 JR)

Glaze was getting a decent amount of playing time off the bench for most of the season but during their losing streak his time has been almost nonexistent. He’s a good rebounder and only plays around a the basket but turns the ball over quite a lot. McBroom has seen his minutes increase of late though that hasn’t meant he’s playing great, in fact it’s either good or awful. McBroom shoots a lot of 3’s, understandable for his size, and is their best long distance shooter (.355) along with McCall. Expect to see Manning more then he usually plays simply because the Pack has the size, just don’t expect a lot out of him.

Who has the Advantage?

NOTE: This is a look at what both teams have done over the course of the season, not how they have been playing for the past few weeks. Trust me I’d love to restrict it to just the last 10 games but that would require me to do that myself which I simply don’t have the time, and I still wouldn’t know where they’d rank nationally.

This is a matchup of State’s best against St. Louis’ best and the Billikens defense has been better then the Pack’s offense. One thing I noticed in the Xavier game, who was another team that was good at defensive rebounding, was the Musketeers limited State to only 20% Offensive Rebounding which is about 15% below their season average.

Now we have the matchup of facepalms vs facepalms. It’s best to avert your eyes when the ball moves to this end of the court. Hipster Cat needs to drop the pigtails and return to his hip ways.

Predictions

KenPom likes Saint Louis by 2 points.
Sagarin likes Saint Louis by 3.3 points.
Vegas opened up with Saint Louis -2.5.

Its extremely difficult to know what’s going to happen. Will both teams continue how they’ve been playing over the last month? Or will one or both revert to their old ways? It’s difficult to tell. One thing the Billikens have an advantage in is not only a 5 starting seniors but multiple years of NCAAT experience. The Pack has the advantage of already playing a game and getting the first half jitters out of the way. The Billikens have TONS of bulletin board material since everyone is on the Pack bandwagon and predicting an upset.

Just as everyone will wear the same clothes that they had on Tuesday, watch the game from the same spot, drink the same drinks, I’m going to continue my official pick be against the Pack. I refuse to be the bringer of bad mojo to this team. So I say St. Louis by 1.

And who knows, maybe the Pack’s new good luck charm and several posters new crush, Kristine Leahy, will stick with the Pack for as long as they are in the tournament.

HEADLINES

This is a great article by Giglio, way too much to highlight.

Joe Giglio (N&O)
Gottfried stays positive, pushes right buttons for Wolfpack’s NCAA success

Ryan Tice (TheWolfpacker.com)
In-depth look at Saint Louis

TheWolfpacker.com
Q&A: Saint Louis looking forward to facing Pack

Russ Wood (TheWolfpacker.com)
Audio: Mark Gottfried, players breaks down SLU

Fred Goodall (AP)
NC State-Saint Louis Preview

PackPride.com
Previewing Saint Louis

Tom Timmermann (Stltoday.com)
Trending down, Billikens are undaunted

Bernie Miklasz (stltoday.com)
It’s up to the ‘Sons of Majerus’

Tom Timmermann (Stltoday.com)
Loe has come a long way with SLU

Tom Timmermann (Stltoday.com)
N.C. State takes whirlwind path to play SLU

About 1.21 Jigawatts

Class of '98, Mechanical Engineer, State fan since arriving on campus and it's been a painful ride ever since. I live by the Law of NC State Fandom, "For every Elation there is an equal and opposite Frustration."

13-14 Basketball

Home › Forums › (12) NC STATE vs (5) SAINT LOUIS Preview

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  • 03/22/2014 at 11:59 AM #49253
    Tau837
    Participant

    Thursday night was not one of Gott’s finer coaching moments. Most are able to see that.

    Can someone summarize in one post the coaching mistakes he made on Thursday night? I watched the game up until 3 minutes remained in regulation; I had to record the game, and unfortunately it cut off there.

    I’m not saying Gott did a great coaching job, but I put this loss much more on the players than the coach.

    Of course, the coach is accountable for results and is responsible for installing and coaching offense and defense, fundamentals, etc. So the coach can always be said to be responsible for on court results. I’m more interesting in specific decisions he made or didn’t make that is leading everyone to complain that he did a poor job during the game on Thursday night.

    Can someone summarize?

    03/22/2014 at 12:37 PM #49256
    84PackFan
    Participant
    Tau837 wrote:

    I assume you are talking about regulation. Looking at the play by play, over the last 5:03 of regulation, State was outrebounded 13-6. But that doesn’t have much to do with rebounding fundamentals. State missed 7 live ball free throws during that stretch, which accounts for the entire difference.

    You are correct about the actual number, thank you for correcting me but, you miss something in your analysis. During that stretch, excluding missed FT rebounds, State did indeed get 3 rebounds to 3 rebounds for SL. Where your analysis lacks is that 2 of SL’s rebounds were offensive during that stretch. Both resulting in scores for SL. There were not many live ball rebounds to be had of NCSU shots during most of that stretch because not many shots were being taken. So, my point still stands. It’s the little things like blocking out that make a difference. No charge, you’re welcome!

    Regarding the Kenpom analysis, is that for the beginning of the season? If so, does it remain the same at the end of the season?

    03/22/2014 at 12:58 PM #49259
    YogiNC
    Participant

    Tau, my gripe had much less to do with in game coaching as much as preparation. The staff should have seen from the UNX game that we were atrocious at handling pressure. It’s what lost that game and it’s what cost us in the NCAAT. We turned the ball over and looked foolish. The announcers lamented at how poorly we handled it and they were dead on. The turnovers on pressure killed us just as badly as the missed free throws. Plus it wound up being a mental thing that overwhelmed the kids. It looked as if we had never practiced breaking pressure. And that is on Gott and staff. If he didn’t recognize we needed to fix that after the UNX game then someone who works for him sure should have!

    Smarter than the average bear

    03/22/2014 at 1:05 PM #49260
    84PackFan
    Participant

    Spot on Yogi!

    03/22/2014 at 3:33 PM #49275
    Whiteshoes67
    Participant

    ^Tau, I’ll try to address those points. I’ve been critical of Gott during the season, and some of the end-of-game decisions versus St. Louis. I nonetheless acknowledge he’s the best we’ve had in a long time, an excellent offensive coach, and fatigue and inexperience undoubtedly contributed to the meltdown.

    I thought Gott managed the game really well for the first 37 minutes. For me, the carnage began around the 3 minute mark. In hindsight, I was probably too critical about substitution patterns down the stretch. I think the problems we saw were a microcosm of regular season results and some of the last three years. I do think he could’ve done a better job with the bigs, either in keeping them fresh, as he did most of the game, or in going to a smaller lineup earlier, when it was clear the St. Louis strategy was to foul and press. There were multiple chances to do this. He waited. More importantly, this game showed what guards handled pressure the best. Simply check the turnovers. Yet we stayed with a PG who, in spite of playing well in some respects, really struggled with St. Louis’s pressure all night. This isn’t a knock on the kid or his contribution. I also think the five on the court during OT were not the freshest, or the best option. Gottfried actually got away from keeping the bigs fresh. It showed in our rebounding and defense.

    More disconcerting were the absolute lapses on defense. St. Louis was among the worst offensive teams in the tournament. I thought we defended them well for 37 minutes. But during the last three, we did not defend the 3-pt line, we did not defend well at all. That has to be a point of emphasis in those circumstances. This, to me, is symptomatic of a bigger problem, and was why we were one of the worst defensive teams to make the tournament. We also allowed St. Louis to hold on to approximately 30-45 seconds by rolling the ball up the court uncontested. I can understand jitters and fatigue. I’ll give a coach credit when it’s due. But he deserves some criticism for his role in that meltdown. It’s obvious we missed a boatload of free throws. What’s also obvious is that the coaching staff, if it really wants to get over the hump, is going to have to pay better attention to detail on the defensive end.

    03/23/2014 at 2:11 AM #49303
    Tau837
    Participant

    Regarding the Kenpom analysis, is that for the beginning of the season? If so, does it remain the same at the end of the season?

    Of course it remains the same. While State’s players gained a season of experience by the end of the season, so too did all players on all other teams. I suppose one might argue that the gain made by a freshman from the start to the end of the season is larger than the gain made by an older player, but I think the difference is likely not significant.

    03/23/2014 at 2:22 AM #49304
    Tau837
    Participant

    Tau, my gripe had much less to do with in game coaching as much as preparation. The staff should have seen from the UNX game that we were atrocious at handling pressure. It’s what lost that game and it’s what cost us in the NCAAT. We turned the ball over and looked foolish… It looked as if we had never practiced breaking pressure. And that is on Gott and staff. If he didn’t recognize we needed to fix that after the UNX game then someone who works for him sure should have!

    Maybe someone can educate me on something. I assume this post is about the UNC game on February 26. Given the following:

    1. Limitations on the time players can spend on organized basketball activities per week
    2. The portion of that time that must be spent in season on film study and preparation for upcoming opponents
    3. The portion of that time that must be spent on physical activity (lifting, stretching, getting taped, in the tub, etc.)
    4. The portion of that time that must be spent continuing to practice the offense and defense that has been installed all season

    …exactly how feasible is it for the coaching staff to teach something in season in reaction to one game that exposes a particular flaw, and to do so in less than a month? Maybe there is plenty of time for that, and had the coaching staff spent focused time on the press it would have made the difference in this game.

    Or maybe our kids just didn’t handle the pressure of the moment well, especially given:

    1. That they had played 5+ games in 8 days, in 3 cities other than their home city
    2. The difference in experience between our players and the opposing players, pretty much opposite ends of the spectrum

    I feel like people are essentially complaining that our team isn’t great at everything. Well, how many teams are? And how many of those teams are comparable to State this season in terms of experience? Hint: none.

    03/23/2014 at 9:20 AM #49306
    Rick
    Keymaster

    I feel like people are essentially complaining that our team isn’t great at everything. Well, how many teams are? And how many of those teams are comparable to State this season in terms of experience? Hint: none.

    I think complaining about something we are atrocious in is hardly complaining that “ware not great at everything”.
    And are you suggesting there is not enough time to practice against presses and free throw shooting? Really? Because if you have a lead in ANY game you are going to face both of those things. And to not be prepared for them is criminally stupid. This team choked how many games away this year? The only one they pulled out was when they gave Syracuse 169 shots to win it in the last three seconds. So I think it is safe to say we SHOULD have been ready for both of those things. Well unless they never expect to have a lead.

    03/23/2014 at 12:31 PM #49335
    Tau837
    Participant

    And are you suggesting there is not enough time to practice against presses and free throw shooting?

    Rick, let me get this straight. Do you think our coaching staff doesn’t have the players shoot free throws in practice? Really? So it is the coaches’ fault that our players weren’t good free throw shooters this season? It is the coaches’ fault that our players missed 11 of 20 free throws in the last 5 minutes of regulation against St. Louis? This entire line of criticism of Gott seems off base IMO.

    As for practicing against presses, do you know for a fact that our team never did that in practice? Do you know for a fact that it was poor coaching rather than poor execution, fatigue, and pressure of the moment by a group of players with relatively limited experience? Do we not give any credit to St. Louis for their defense and execution?

    The press criticism may have some validity. I don’t know how often they practiced it this season, and I don’t know how much more they should have practiced it, given other demands on limited practice time. But, again, it seems a lot more like other factors IMO.

    03/23/2014 at 12:49 PM #49337
    Rick
    Keymaster

    TAU, you are making up things I never said. All I did was address your statements that
    1) they do not have time to work on ‘everything’
    2) people are complaining the team is ‘not good at everything’

    I hold a coach accountable for his team’s performance. His team’s performance was awful. There are always excuses for why players go not do something.

    Every coach has their flaws. The key is to minimize them and be great at what you are good at.

    03/23/2014 at 12:59 PM #49338
    84PackFan
    Participant

    Tau, maybe the NCAA should just be like 2nd grade now and give everyone a medal for participating and not keep score. No, you are not going to become a master of defeating the press in mid season but, if you do not work on it you will not get any better at all. It was grossly plain to see that they were totally unprepared to handle a press. This should have been drilled in at the beginning of the season and then you would only need a refresher course.

    If the coaching staff recognizes a weakness or in the case of the UNX game has one exposed for all the world to see, you have to find a way to address it. Because as Rick said, you are going to face those things particularly after someone sees on national television that it is a weakness for you.

    Two more things. (1)I think you give too much credit/weight to Kenpom. IMO, a senior in a stable program (same coaching staff) will probably experience little improvement his final year. The coaching staff should have long ago taught him everything they could. After that it is up to the individual to put in extra work. A freshman on the other hand gains valuable game experience and improves vastly or rides the pine. (2) SL lost to the bottom feeding Bonnies in the first round of their conference tournament. They has lost 4 of 5 to end the season. They barely eked out the lone victory during that stretch against Umass. This was not a powerhouse team exuding a great amount of confidence!

    The fact that there were 5 close losses this season (OT or less than 4 points in regulation) says that Gott and staff have the talent and are on the right track. But, it’s the little things that make a difference. Attention to those things are what make great teams and add up to long term success. Gott can recruit all of the top notch talent he can grab from the likes of Duke, UNX and Kentucky but, if he does not prepare them for success, he will always finish in the middle of the Pack.

    03/23/2014 at 1:22 PM #49339
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    As for practicing against presses, do you know for a fact that our team never did that in practice?

    If they didn’t practice it, they should all be on their way out of town as coaches. I am certain they did.

    My biggest gripe, outside of the matador defense that was played in crucial spurts all season, was having Warren in when he committed his 5th foul with 27 seconds to play in OT. We needed him. Make someone else, anyone but Warren, foul. There was no such communication. And that is not on the player. That is the coaching staff’s job to make sure everyone knows the plan.

    03/23/2014 at 1:52 PM #49340
    Rick
    Keymaster
    84PackFan wrote:

    The fact that there were 5 close losses this season (OT or less than 4 points in regulation) says that Gott and staff have the talent and are on the right track. But, it’s the little things that make a difference. Attention to those things are what make great teams and add up to long term success. Gott can recruit all of the top notch talent he can grab from the likes of Duke, UNX and Kentucky but, if he does not prepare them for success, he will always finish in the middle of the Pack.

    Yeah, I get they impression Gott is not a detail person rich is not necessarily a problem if you know and surround yourself with people who are

    03/23/2014 at 1:55 PM #49342
    84PackFan
    Participant

    I would like to emphasize one point here that I made a bunch of posts ago. My beef is not about this one game. That would be very shortsighted. My beef is that for NCSU to ever win an ACC championship again, much less a national title, you have to get better at these things. This game was a microcosm of a larger set of inconsistencies. If you are constantly in the play in game or on the bubble, you are not going to reach the next level. Gott is 3 years in and TJ is probably not coming back. What will your excuse be for him next year? How many years in a row do you use the young team excuse for him?

    It is the job of the coaching staff to work on players free throw shooting, handling the press, etc. I may take heat for this but, Valvano was a master of getting his people ready in late season. He did not show up to coach until tournament time. You would see some great improvement when he decided to coach.

    It was no accident that a few years ago, State shot 80% of free throws as a team. Up until recently, State was over 70% average each year. If you get fouled and don’t make free throws and don’t rebound the miss it is just like not having a possession. This is a huge part of the game.

    03/23/2014 at 2:00 PM #49343
    84PackFan
    Participant

    “Yeah, I get they impression Gott is not a detail person rich is not necessarily a problem if you know and surround yourself with people who are”

    Agreed Rick. The assistants should be doing the driving with Gott navigating. We are obviously missing one piece there.

    03/23/2014 at 8:49 PM #49409
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    Gott is a big picture guy. He is relational and generally gets along well with the guys. Very good offensive coach. But I do wonder about details and his perception. I mean, he stated in the post game that we were a good FT shooting team. Really? What film are you watching?

    03/23/2014 at 9:04 PM #49410
    pakfanistan
    Participant
    Wulfpack wrote:

    Gott is a big picture guy. He is relational and generally gets along well with the guys. Very good offensive coach. But I do wonder about details and his perception. I mean, he stated in the post game that we were a good FT shooting team. Really? What film are you watching?

    I think percentage wise, we improved several percentage points over the course of the season. I think we had reached a state of “not bad”.

    We shot 54% against SLU, while we shot 75% against Exavier, 78% against Duke, and 71% against Syracuse.

    If we had shot 70% against SLU that would have been worth almost 6 extra points.

    03/23/2014 at 9:21 PM #49413
    Wulfpack
    Participant

    We ranked 294th at 66% for the year. Near the bottom.

    03/24/2014 at 12:44 AM #49431
    84PackFan
    Participant

    The two point guards are generally not overly bad at FT’s but stunk that night. Lee and Turner shoot the highest percentage on the team for the year. Why the hell wasn’t the ball in their hands? Why was TJ taking 3 pointers? That is not his game. The team did not even need him to score at that point. They were up by 8 with 1:31 to go. Play 4 corners for Pete’s sake. Vandy should not have been on the floor. He is a liability in that situation. All they needed was someone to know to keep it the hands of the guys who can hit while standing still. Coaches in this league used to know that! Can anyone say WTF? It’s called strategery.

    03/24/2014 at 2:19 PM #49476
    pakfanistan
    Participant
    Wulfpack wrote:

    We ranked 294th at 66% for the year. Near the bottom.

    Yes, on average, for the year, we weren’t good. But we did make a late season push to a respectable level.

    As a matter of fact, we averaged 76% in the five games (BC-XU) preceding the SLU loss.

    11/29/2014 at 11:07 AM #48993
    redcanine
    Participant

    If you’re the coaching staff, you MUST tell the team that fatigue’s to blame. You can’t let them know YOU let them down. Don’t give them a reason to suspect that you’re f.o.s…. not that I think you are… just keep your poker face. Give them THE reason to get in shape, improve FT shooting, staying in front of somebody. Blame it on their legs and make ’em bust a$$ all summer.

    11/29/2014 at 11:07 AM #49024
    Fastback68
    Participant

    DO YOUR JOB, YOW. Scour Division ! for a young but seasoned assistant coach that has a reputation for teaching all the tenets of defense. The Press, zone, man to man, REBOUNDING, scouting the opponents offense for weakness and give them the authority and half the practice time to install it. It’s not fire everybody. It’s hire a defensive specialist(s). Gott has no room to argue. The current staff seems to handle recruiting, offense, conditioning and nutrition reasonably well. D1 defensive statistics don’t lie. This team will have 11 quality players next year. There’s no excuse not to have a full press defense and a high paced offense. Run our competitors into the ground. Yow has always been about giving every sport the tools to succeed. Defense and handling a press on offense will cure what ails us. Secondly, Anya needs to spend the summer with Todd Fuller and whoever summer coached Fuller. Can’t remember his name. Prepare for next season to the very limit allowed by the NCAA. Lastly, I’m not joking – if there is such a thing as a free throw coach, hire his — too.

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