Time: 7:00 pm
TV: ESPNU
Announcers: Tom Hart, Len Elmore
Wake has been off for a week since losing at Duke 83-63, their third straight loss. So the last time these two teams met was four weeks ago in Winston-Salem where the Deacons were able to win the Free Throw shooting contest 70-69. If you don’t remember, the trio of Brian Dorsey, Sean Hull, and Jamie Luckie proceeded to call 52 fouls sending Wake to the line for 39 FTA and the Pack for 31. You’ll also recall this was one of three games TJ Warren has fouled out of this weekend. Finally you may also remember the game winning layup by McIntyre where he took 3 HUUUGGGGEEEEE steps and wasn’t called for a travel.
Here’s a recap statistically of the game:
As you can see the Deacon’s shot the ball tremendously well but that should be expected if you’re going to be called for a foul just for looking at someone. I’ll be honest, I’ve never seen a game where a team took more FT attempts than FG attempts. The ACC must have been so proud for identifying all those tendencies. Wake didn’t disappoint in their inability to grab offensive rebounds, which is saying a lot against this Pack squad.
Projected Starters:
Madison Jones, Coron Williams, Travis McKie, A.W. Adala Moto, and Devin Thomas.
Codi Miller-McIntyre is suffering from an ankle injury that sidelined him for the second half of the Georgia Tech game and all of the Duke game. No word yet on if he’ll be playing tonight but the less the Pack sees of him the better. Maybe that bum ankle can prevent him running from the 3pt line for a layup without dribbling???
Since most of the players on Wake have played at least a couple of games against NC State I thought I’d take a look at how they have performed and who we should be on the lookout for the most.
I’d like to see Thomas’ numbers against every other team in the ACC but I’m guessing he’s salivating knowing State is next up. Just look at that Offensive Rating, 177!!! That is beyond belief for a guy who is so heavily used in those games.
Key No. 1 —- Someone tell Thomas the game is Wednesday night.
The Pack had zero answers for The Dash last game and hopefully he’s at best 50% for this game, otherwise it’s going to be another long night watching the Pack’s PG’s getting abused. Adala Moto was last games “insert unknown player’s name here who has a career game against the Pack”. A lot of that was due to making 11-14 FT’s. McKie’s and Cavanaugh’s numbers are weighted down due to their inability to not turn the ball over.
Series Notes
Overall: NC State leads 137-101
@NC State: State 57-23 (10-4 @PNC, 8 straight wins @PNC)
Magic Number: 65
NC State is 14-3 when they score 65 or more points.
Wake Forest is 13-3 when they score 65 or more points.
Now’s the time to weep
I thought I’d take a look at these two teams and see how they are faring in just conference play this season. It’s not pretty if you’re a Pack fan. Welcome to 2014 where NC State = Wake Forest.
As you can see there isn’t any difference between NC State and Wake Forest this season except Wake goes to the Free Throw line more and sends their opponents there more as well. Some real stinkers against UVA, Duke, and UNC have inflated the bad defensive numbers for the Pack in such a small sample size but doesn’t that say a lot as well.
We all want the Pack to be on the right side of the Bubble come Selection Sunday but if they don’t find another gear improve in several of these areas on both sides of the ball, then I don’t see how they will be able to do the minimum and beat Wake, Clemson, VT, Miami, and BC.
Road Warriors???
Wake Forest under Jeff Bzdelik is a staggering 2-28 on the road in the ACC. Who have they beaten during this amazing run of futility? Boston College (9-22, 4-12) in 2011/12 and Virginia Tech (8-15, 1-10) this year, 2013/14. Wake is currently 1-4 in ACC Road games this season and State is 3-2 in ACC Home games.
So what are they doing to accomplish this feat? Let’s take a look at how they are doing in the losses:
Wake Forest stats for ACC road losses from 2011-Present
Wake Forest stats for ACC road losses from 2011-Present (Opponents results)
It’s pretty obvious, WF just isn’t competitive on the road and the biggest culprit is the fact they can’t hit water if they feel out of a boat.
Here’s a side by side comparison of the averages between the 28 losses and the 2 wins.
As you can see the Deacons aren’t doing a whole lot different between their wins and losses except getting the ball in the basket more and playing horrible teams who can’t shoot.
So what does all this mean?
Well, for one thing no one should ever lose to Wake on their Home court and talk about NCAA Tournament in the same season. Second, be on the lookout early on to how well both teams are shooting the ball.
Predictor:
KenPom likes NC State by 6, so does Vegas. Personally I think on a neutral court this game is a toss up but with the game being in Raleigh I’m going with KP and Vegas.
