NC STATE at VIRGINIA TECH Game Thread

[1.21 Jigawatts]

Pack85EE wrote:

Jigawatts, I appreciate your number crunching. Thanks for all you do. But I do say those two showed strong improvement at least by the eye-test. Buckets was awesome last year, scoring easily when defenses keyed on Brown, Lesley, Scott and trying to block Howell out. But this year, when defenses are keying on him he is bringing as well as anyone in conference.
And I would say that Lewis has developed/improved his leadership game management skills but boy does his shot need work.

I did open by saying I was the eternal optimist so …
I do think Gottfried has this team on the right path. Next year could be as tough as this year though.

Damn, I always forget to administer the “eye-test”

85EE, either you disagreed with my point or missed where I wrote that Warren went from the 5th scoring option to THEE focal point of the offense and how that is answering an unknown and not an improvement. If Warren was THEE focal point of the offense both years and his scoring increased with no additional possessions then that would be an improvement. Frankly we can’t tell if he improved because we’re not comparing apples to apples. One thing we do know is his efficiency has decreased due to a very large increase in possessions.

[MP]

^ The only thing I’ll say about

that

is… If you tell a sophomore that you’re expecting him to carry a team – and he delivers – that qualifies as “improvement”. Because only a select few could deliver the goods the way TJ Warren has.

[TheCOWDOG]

Jigs…How can one compare apples to apples on one hand, and compare oranges to pears on the other?

[1.21 Jigawatts]

With a fruit cocktail

[1.21 Jigawatts]

MP wrote:

^ The only thing I’ll say about

that

is… If you tell a sophomore that you’re expecting him to carry a team – and he delivers – that qualifies as “improvement”. Because only a select few could deliver the goods the way TJ Warren has.

Then what you’re saying is if Warren would have been the focal point of the offense last year with those numbers he wouldn’t have produced similar results as this year?

[Wulfpack]

Next year could be as tough as this year though

If we lose Warren, which is now highly likely, then it probably will be.

As for Lewis, he has done a great job after a very slow start. His defense, though, is still below average. And being so small, guys are just blowing right by him and shooting over him. He is just not very good on that end of the floor.

[tjfoose1]

Warren went from the 5th scoring option to THEE focal point of the offense and how that is answering an unknown and not an improvement. Frankly we can’t tell if he improved because we’re not comparing apples to apples.

WTF? Forget the eye test, how about the common sense test? Something about not seeing a forest because all the damn trees are in the way.

You’re asking one question but answering a different one.

[redcanine]

^I will give Tyler some props for his defensive effort against VT. But the Hokies do suck though… Does that make it propworthy?

[TheCOWDOG]

‘Foose…always gettin’ it.

Jigsie. Comeon’ man, the emperical data being slung around lately has huge holes in it.

Va is probably gonna slice my pears, but he sees it, too.

In fact,and Va,close your eyes, I think the site should drop the E

[1.21 Jigawatts]

Common sense?? How’s this for common sense. Warren was an efficient scoring small forward with limited possesions getting most of his offense off of offensive rebounds as a freshman because Gottfried chose to run the offense through CJ Leslie.

This year he’s greatly increased his possessions because Gottfried is running the offense through Warren this year yet he still gets a fair amount of his points from offensive rebounding. He’s not as efficient scoring because of the increase in workload. Common sense says if he had more possessions last year he would have scored more.

How about this for the forest. Maybe Gottfried didn’t know what the hell he was doing last year by running the offense through CJ instead of TJ. Ever think of that? No, you guys want to ignore all stats except what fits your agenda. I draw conclusions from the stats, not the other way around.

If several of you want to ignore stats so that you can judge events through a prism then that’s your prerogative.

I stated an opinion that maybe Warren hasn’t drastically improved from last year because of how he was used by Gottfried and I backed it up with facts. The rebuttal was but he passes the “eye test”.

[pakfanistan]

TheCOWDOG wrote:

In fact,and Va,close your eyes, I think the site should drop the E

Heh.

1.21 Jigawatts wrote:

Warren was an efficient scoring small forward with limited possesions getting most of his offense off of offensive rebounds as a freshman…

He’s still kind of that guy, only now he’s the only reliable scoring option.

[VaWolf82]

TheCOWDOG wrote:

‘Foose…always gettin’ it.
Va is probably gonna slice my pears, but he sees it, too.
In fact,and Va,close your eyes, I think the site should drop the E

I’m lost.

[1.21 Jigawatts]

Va, he’s saying instead of StateFansNation it should be StatfansNation.

[choppack1]

Jigs – come on man.

You think tj lost all that weight to get a modeling gig? You’ve played sports right?

On a golf course, the par 3s almost are always ranked easiest on the course only because its a lot easier to put together 3 good shots in a row than 4 or 5 in a row. I run a 5k at a much faster pace than a 10k. I do really well (vs. The field) in a sprint triathlon, but my times don’t hold up for an Olympic one.

The bottom line is that one of the main reasons kids go pro early is because the longer you play the more your flaws are exposed. Its the same reason most rookies hit the “wall”.

Don’t let stats cloud common sense judgement.

[1.21 Jigawatts]

choppack1 wrote:

Jigs – come on man.

You think tj lost all that weight to get a modeling gig? You’ve played sports right?

On a golf course, the par 3s almost are always ranked easiest on the course only because its a lot easier to put together 3 good shots in a row than 4 or 5 in a row. I run a 5k at a much faster pace than a 10k. I do really well (vs. The field) in a sprint triathlon, but my times don’t hold up for an Olympic one.

The bottom line is that one of the main reasons kids go pro early is because the longer you play the more your flaws are exposed. Its the same reason most rookies hit the “wall”.

Don’t let stats cloud common sense judgement.

Seriously chop, WTH does that have to do with anything I’ve said?

[Rick]

VaWolf82 wrote:

TheCOWDOG wrote:

‘Foose…always gettin’ it.
Va is probably gonna slice my pears, but he sees it, too.
In fact,and Va,close your eyes, I think the site should drop the E

I’m lost.

Va,
That makes you normal

[Rick]

1.21 Jigawatts wrote:

How about this for the forest. Maybe Gottfried didn’t know what the hell he was doing last year by running the offense through CJ instead of TJ. Ever think of that? No, you guys want to ignore all stats except what fits your agenda. I draw conclusions from the stats, not the other way around.

That is a real interesting thought. Ignoring the friction that would be caused, I imagine running the offense through Buckets would have make us a much better team last year. Leslie would have had less pressure which seemed to be his kryptonite and the only thing that can stop Buckets is Luckie.

Agreed about stats. There have been a bunch of times I thought something was true until I started looking up the stats and was like “well crap” and then had to change my opinion.
IMO we are dealing with two problems when discussing an issue like this
1) Confirmation bias. Stats can help with this but can also be manipulated.
2) Ego. Once someone takes a position they seem unwilling to change that position. No matter what the evidence says they seem to think changing their mind proves they were wrong. As information changes opinions can and should change.

[redisgood]

I’ve always felt, with Rich holding down the middle, Wood keeping guys occupied on the outside and Zo running the point, TJ could have been a dominant force last year, and this team would have had far more success. But of course it’s just an opinion, and we’ll never know.

[tjfoose1]

No, you guys want to ignore all stats except what fits your agenda. I draw conclusions from the stats, not the other way around.

Right, because everyone knows athletic production is strictly and solely linear to the time variable.

Right.

Jigs, seriously dude, you’re a smart guy. What is up with you this week?

[bill.onthebeach]

… Well … lest anyone forget… Coaches don’t control how the offense runs or who it runs thru…. Players do.

Coaches may guide, instruct, suggest, discipline, throw temper tantrums, etc,etc,etc… but once the kids cross the white line and the clock starts… about all the Coach can do is watch and yell….

I ain’t so 100% sure that the Coaches plan this year is to run the offense thru Cuz….
And there is little, if any, concrete evidence to the fact.

To say… so goes CUZ… so goes the PACK may be shortsighted…. in the least….

Perhaps it’s more a matter of “water finding it’s own course in 35 secs or less”… as the team develops and each member makes improvements in their roles and contributions….

Early on… Cuz GOTT the ball a lot … because nobody else really wanted it….
Some games… Cuz just takes the ball and does what he does… and the rest of the guys watch…

Some games.. Cuz just disappears for long periods of time, especially in the second half….

Our best offensive games have all been games where other guys stepped up first and Cuz cleaned up…

That last thing — three guys in double digits every night– to me, is much more indicative, of Coach’s season long plan for this team…. much more so than either one of the first three.

———–

With “Mathematics” or “Statistics”… as you guys know… there is the “descriptive” and the “predictive” elements of equations and analysis…. and the later does not necessarily follow the former…

Let’s call all this the “cosomology” of #NCSTATESH%T — the basketball variety…

#NCSU-North Carolina's #1 FOOTBALL school!

[tjfoose1]

And if you’re judging improvement based solely on stats, you’re further proving your folly.

Sounds to me you’re trying to link a decreased RATE of production as evidence to support a lack of overall improvement.

Since TJ has proved he can score 20+ points in a half, I guess he sucks ass when he only scores 10.

[tjfoose1]

Base on this logic, that Russell Wilson really stunk it up in the Super Bowl.

[pakfanistan]

With regards to playing TJ more, he’s only averaging 7.7 more minutes a game this year over last year. It sure feels like he’s playing a lot more, but apparently not.

Warren’s minutes increased ~28% this season over last season, and his points increased ~92%

His posession% has increased from 18.5 to 31.9, ~72%

He did lose 20lb. apparently. I would expect that to hinder his ability to perform last year like he has this year. He certainly looks more agile.

[Pack85EE]

Numbers is Bull$#!t

[Pack85EE]

Changing subjects back to the future games – boy we really need a new thread to start – A am afraid we are going to get trounced tomorrow night. I sure hope I’m wrong. Maybe UNX is due for a fall back to earth.
If we beat Pitt, we are 10-8. Does a Friday win get us over the hump, maybe not.
So we get the 7th seed and knock of Syracuse, then somehow knock off Duke on Saturday because they aren’t all everything this year. Only problem is they will bother us more than we will bother them. I think that’s a big issue with our team this year. Other strong teams get in our head with tough D and fast breaks. Us, not so much.
But if we are on a roll and make it to Sunday, could we win?

[Author]

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