Now that we’ve reached the half-way point in the conference schedule, you would think that we could divide the conference into the good, the bad, and the forgettable. But somehow over the last two weeks, various teams have managed to change directions and are blurring the cross over points between the expected groups.
For starters, UNC and FSU decided to converge and invalidate some of the SOS projections that I made last week. There’s probably a lesson in there somewhere….about the dangers and differences between analyzing facts and making projections. I’m pretty good at the former, but not so much the latter. So let’s get back to analysis and look at the teams playing for NCAAT seeding and those on the good side of the bubble.
I’ve changed the aspect ratio and extent to display the timespan required for the entire conference schedule. This different aspect ratio highlights FSU’s freefall over the last several weeks…losing four of five games (and three in row) to fall back down on the bubble. A home win against VT last night stopped the bleeding (for now at least).
Before the FSU-NCSU game, I commented that Hamilton had been channeling his inner-Sendek by losing to the other teams in the top 1/3 of the conference and beating everyone else. But losses to State and Clemson, along with the loss of their leading scorer to a sprained ankle raise questions about exactly where FSU fits among the conference hierarchy. Their best wins are OOC (UMass and VCU) and last Sunday’s Dance Card has them listed as the first team out.
Here is FSU’s remaining schedule with one note for clarification…since UNC and FSU can’t decide where they fit in the conference, I’m done with picking for them. So I’ll call both schools “undecided” until they work out their issues:
- Top – @Pitt, SYR
- Undecided – UNC
- Middle – @UMD, @WF,
- Bottom – UM, GT, @BC
UNC has managed to move from a 1-4 conference record to a winning one by beating Clemson, State, and UMD at home along with GT on the road. (Yea I know, not exactly an impressive set of wins.) But as I said on New Year’s Day, their wins against Mich St, Kentucky, and Louisville mean that UNC only needs about a 10-8 conference record and a bubble RPI to get into the NCAAT. That’s a good thing for UNC fans because at #62, State is their best conference win so far.
Today’s expanded “IN” graph shows how UNC’s winning streak moved them through and above our bubble criteria Winning multiple ACC games will always pay off, even if they are not signature wins. The other thing to notice is the difference between where UNC entered the conference season versus where they are now. You need to do a lot better than one game over 0.500 in conference if you want to move up against national competition.
UNC’s schedule looks pretty balanced to me (but a little harder than FSU’s):
- Top – Duke(x2), Pitt
- Undecided – @FSU
- Middle – @NCSU, WF
- Bottom – ND(x2), @VT
From the beginning of the conference schedule, Syracuse has looked like the class of the ACC. Their remaining schedule is about as tough as the ACC can manage this year especially with their toughest games all on the road.
- Top – @Pitt, @Duke, @UVA
- Undecided – @FSU
- Middle – Clemson, NCSU, @UMD
- Bottom – BC, GT
Duke and UVa are both clearly playing for seeding in the ACCT and the NCAAT. Duke’s early stumbles on the road have positioned UVa firmly in second place. With UVa’s easier schedule, Duke will need help from some unexpected places if they are going to catch the Cavs.
Duke Schedule
- Top – SYR
- Undecided – UNC(x2)
- Middle – UMD, WF
- Bottom – @BC, @GT, VT
UVA Schedule
- Top – SYR
- Middle – UMD (x2), @Clemson,
- Bottom – @GT, @VT, ND, UM
On New Year’s Day, I said that it was hard to tell how good Pitt was because they hadn’t really beaten anyone. Unfortunately for Pitt, that hasn’t changed much:
- Record Breakdown:
- vs Top 25: 0-4,
- vs 26-50: 1-0,
- vs 51+: 18-0
Pitt’s back-to-back home losses to Duke and UVa lead me to pencil them into the 4 seed in the ACCT…based on both their performances against the top three as well as losing the tie-breaker to both Duke and UVa. If Pitt can’t hang onto fourth place with this schedule, then they’re not nearly as good as I’ve concluded by watching them play:
- Top – SYR,
- Undecided – @UNC, FSU
- Middle – NCSU, @Clemson
- Bottom – VT, @BC, @ND
Here’s a snapshot of the Bubble’s backside:
I haven’t really paid any attention to Clemson, even with their upset of Duke early in the year. I expected Clemson to lose @FSU and eventually drop completely off the Bubble chart. But a road win @FSU (after FSU’s leading scorer twisted his ankle) and a home win (struggle against GT) has Clemson working their way up the bubble instead.
Clemson has 3 wins against the bottom of the conference to go along with FSU, Duke, and WF. Three losses @UNC, @Pitt, and FSU are certainly nothing to be ashamed of. All of this means that Clemson currently sits at 6-3 and tied for fourth place in the ACC.
Clemson’s biggest problem is not their W/L record. It’s a horrible OOC schedule that looks worse and worse as the season progresses. Their OOC SOS has dropped about 50 spots since our first look on New Year’s Day. It currently sits at #292 and is moving into that zone where we’ve seen the Selection Committee take punitive action in the past AS WELL AS dragging their RPI ranking so low that their accomplishments in the ACC are easy to overlook.
On the off chance that you think that I’m full of excrement, the Dance Card has them 20 spots below the burst line, over a dozen spots behind State, and one spot behind WF. Note that Clemson has a better overall record, a better conference record, and better wins than State or WF…but is actually much further from the NCAAT than State. Once again let me point out that you don’t need a back-breaking OOC schedule to put yourself in a good position for an at-large bid. (State’s OOC schedule is only ranked #109.) But there is absolutely no reason for an ACC team to have an OOC schedule ranking near #300. (End of Diatribe #238 on the importance of OOC scheduling.)
There’s still plenty of time left for Clemson if they’re really good enough. (I’ll give my basis for that statement next week as this length of this entry has already gotten out of hand.) Their remaining schedule looks fairly well-balanced but is a step up in difficulty when compared to their first-half schedule:
- Top – @SYR, UVA, Pitt
- Middle – NCSU, @WF, UMD
- Bottom – @ND, @GT, UM
Maryland looks like it is sitting pretty good shape with a 5-5 ACC record. But if you expect me to say the same sorts of things about the Twerps as I did the Tiggers, then you’ll be disappointed. UMD is 5-0 against the bottom 1/3 of the conference and 0-5 against the top 2/3. Guess what? UMD doesn’t have many games left against the bottom of the conference:
- Top – UVA(x2), @Duke, SYR
- Undecided – FSU
- Middle – WF, @Clemson
- Bottom – VT
WF is in a three-game slide and is 3-6 since their win over UNC on Jan 5. Not much good to talk about here as WF is in contention for the last slot on Wed in the ACCT. Here’s WF’s remaining schedule
- Top – Duke
- Undecided – @UNC, FSU
- Middle – @NCSU, @UMD, Clemson
- Bottom – BC, @UM
NC State’s Upcoming Schedule
Miami has settled into the bottom third of the ACC in both RPI and conference standings. Unfortunately, no one bothered to tell Larranaga. UM just took one of the teams that has already spanked State (in Raleigh no less) into overtime. Sat’s game might turn out to be an easy thrashing of a bottom-dweller…but I wouldn’t bet any money on it.
Wake Forest has the weekend off before heading to Raleigh for the rematch against State next Tuesday. WF thinks that Miller-McIntyre’s sprained ankle will be strong enough to play by then. (Their medical dept kept him out of this week’s game against Duke.)
State’s entire second-half schedule:
- Top – @SYR, @Pitt
- Undecided – UNC
- Middle – WF, @Clemson
- Bottom – UM(x2), @VT, BC
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