It may have surprised some to see that UNC opened up as a 3.5 point favorite at NC State despite posting a dismal 2 – 5 record. I’m not sure if Vegas viewed their BIG TIME win against Boston College as some sort of turning point, but it got me thinking… how has the Pack fared against the line versus UNC? My sample size goes back to when we started our 5 game streak against the Heels in 2007 (against some of UNC’s best all-time defenses I might add).
11/10/2007
NC State (-3.5) v. UNC
W 31 – 27
11/22/2008
NC State (+11) @ UNC
W 41 – 10
11/28/2009
NC State (+6) v. UNC
W 28 – 27
11/20/2010
NC State (+2.5) @ UNC
W 29 – 25
11/05/2011
NC State (+3.5) v. UNC
W 13 – 0
10/27/2012
NC State (+7) @ UNC
L (35 – 43)
During our 5 – 1 run, UNC has been favored in 5 of the 6 games. Out of those games, NC State covered the spread in each of our wins and just missed covering the spread by a point last year. If history has any say in this, it looks like this game will be decided by 3 points or fewer in a Vegas-estimated loss. Bet on State.
