Fans of Wolfpack Baseball (47-14) became Owls fans this past weekend in droves. One set of Owls eventually got sent home from Chapel Hill despite a pretty plucky performance there.
The other set of Owls however, came thru big time for the Wolfpack.
By topping the Oregon Ducks in game seven Monday evening in the Eugene Regional, the Rice Owls (44-18) kept the Pack’s travel budget under control this year. And who needs national seeds anyway when you’ve got birds of prey on your side? The Pack now gets to host the Super Regional round in Raleigh, just as they should have been all along.
In their own right, the Pack is coming off of a rather impressive performance in the Raleigh Regional. The Pack was perfect in Raleigh, first dispatching Binghamton in the first game, then sitting William & Mary down two straight. In three games the Pack yielded only 3 runs, including a shutout gem from Carlos Rodon when he faced the BillnMary on Saturday.
Now it’s the Owls turn to try their hand in Raleigh.
It’s a best of three series at The Doak this weekend between the Owls and the Woflpack, with the winner advancing to the College World Series in Omaha. It’s the first time ever for Wolfpack Baseball hosting a Super Regional round in Raleigh.
Let’s hope it’s a memorable one.
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Rice Owls
44-18 (15-9 C-USA, t1st, RPI #26)
Bid: Automatic, C-USA Tournament Champions
OK yeah, we appreciate the Owls’ assist in the Eugene Regional, allowing the Pack to keep home field advantage for the Supers. But that’s over. The Owls now become the enemy and must be handled as such if the Pack hopes to reach Omaha next weekend.
So let’s see what make them tick….
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At The Plate
Offensively, in many ways Rice is a very similar ballclub to the Wolfpack, statistically speaking. Taking a look at their numbers vs those of the Pack bears this out and if anything, in some categories they have a clear edge, such as onbase% and strikeouts per game.
Rice bats .280 as a club (vs .281 for the Pack). They’ve knocked 25 HRs on the season (Pack=29), have an onbase% of .371 (Pack=.364) and a slugging% of .371 (Pack=.391). They strike out 5.40 times per game (Pack=6.38) while drawing 4.27 walks per game (Pack=4.03).
For the season however, the Owls have averaged scoring 5.24 runs per game while the Pack has averaged pushing 6.30 men across per contest. So, what’s the x-factor here for the Pack that has allowed the Pack to average more than a full run more per game despite getting on base less often?
Small ball, baby. We play it with abandon and it works for us (usually). Moreover, we play to our strength of team speed and take advantage of it at every opportunity.
As an example of the difference there, consider that the Owls have stolen only 41 bases on 64 attempts for the season. The Pack on the other hand has swiped 104 bags on 137 attempts. That’s 250%+ more opportunity taken to try to move a man into position to score. And when Trea Turner (and others) get themselves into scoring position, especially without having to give up an extra out to do so, it tends to disrupt the opposition’s battery, often leading to even more opportunity from unforced errors.
On the other hand, Rice has managed to gun down nearly half (32/65) of opposing baserunners attempting to steal on them. So this shapes up as a key point by which this series might be decided. I don’t expect the Pack to change gears at this point. You dance with the one that brung ya, as they say. Nor do I think Rice has faced our level of speed day in and day out in C-USA.
If they manage to keep us in check and off the bases completely, or if they manage to gun down a few steal attempts, it could be a huge turning point in the wrong direction no doubt. But I like our chances nonetheless.
Plain and simple: For the Pack…Speed Kills.
Offense: Advantage Wolfpack
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Rice Top Offensive Performers
Shane Hoelscher (#2, Jr, 3B) – leads the Owls in batting average (.331), His other numbers are misleading from having missed time (23 games) due to injury and I don’t feel like crunching the numbers to prorate them. He can hit, but rarely with power, that’s all ya need to know.
Michael Ratterree (#8, Sr RF) – his 9 HRs leads the team, as does his 48 runs scored. Second in RBIs (41) and slg% (.442). Carries an overall avg. of .270, draws a lot of BBs (43) but Ks a lot too (39). Also lead with 12 stolen bases in 14 attempts.
Michael Aquino (#15, Jr, DH/OF) – Owls top RBI man with 42, also tops with slg% of .502. 2nd on the team in avg. (.312), HRs (8) and doubles (13), 3rd in runs scored (44), . Strikes out a lot (his 53 leads the team) and walks way less than he should (18). But if he’s got a bat in his hands, he’s dangerous.
Christian Stringer (#5, Sr, 2B) – Leads the team in runs scored (47) and doubles (14). Is 2nd on the team in onbase% (.417) and 3rd for avg (.304) and slg% (.409) and drawing walks (40).
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In The Field
The Owls have a very good pitching staff, plain and simple. They check in with a staff ERA of 2.81 (18th nationally) while the Pack checks in at 3.12 on the season (29th). They have a .224 against avg, compared to .215 for the Pack. Overall, they give up 3.56 runs per game, while the Pack surrenders an average of 3.85 per game.
Both teams ring up their share of strikeout victims. The Pack is in elite national company here of course (8.8 per 9innings, #3), but Rice is no slouch at 7.6 per 9innings, good enough for 37th nationally.
The Owls are extremely good at keeping the ball in the ballpark having given up only 15 HRs on the year, while the Pack has yielded more than twice as many at 32. Similar to the Pack, they’re 9th in the nation in hits allowed/9innings at 7.12 (Pack=7.08 for 6th), and 67th in the nation in BBs/9 at 3.14 (Pack=3.56 for 138th).
Not surprisingly therefore, both teams come in with very similar WHIP numbers as well. Rice is 12th in the nation at 1.15, while the Pack checks in at 17th at 1.17.
So, based on cumulative season statistics alone….
Pitching: Advantage Owls (slight).
HOWEVER – and this is a BIG however (two actually)…
Caveat #1: We mentioned in the Raleigh Regional preview that if the Pack could cut down on the free passes that this staff could become truly elite. Well, someone was listening apparently as Wolfpack pitchers would give up only two free passes during the regional, both in game one to Binghamton. Keep that up please.
Caveat #2: Don’t read too much into the cumulative season ERA numbers for the Pack. Alert readers will recall that the Pack’s staff ERA was at 3.49 just a couple of weeks ago. That number is now down to 3.12. That’s a tremendously large drop for this late in the season, so I went and crunched the numbers.
First, the Pack has given up only 8 runs in their six post-season games thus far for an avg of only 1.33 per game. That’s ALL runs, not just earned.
But, when you get to their post-season ERA, they begin to look even scarier. In the Pack’s six games since the regular season ended, they’re carrying an ERA of just 0.86. That’s not just Carlos Rodon, mind you. That’s the entire staff. Rodon’s personal post-season ERA is just a shade under NADA in 19 innings of work.
Those numbers are amazing enough without background shading, but keep in mind the competition level there. Aside from Binghamton, the other five games were all top 50 RPI teams, with UNC (#1 RPI) essentially figuring into the ERA twice with the 18 inning contest in Durham. Clemson (#17 RPI) and Miami (#19 RPI) are also in that mix.
That’s getting it done, and then some.
So yeah, I’ll give the slight nod to Rice on pitching based on their cumulative season numbers. But if we continue to toss it like we have been thus far in the post-season (and keep the walks and hit batsmen to a minimum), it won’t matter.
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Rice Top Starters
Austin Kubitza (#21, JR, LHP) – 8-4, ERA 2.02, 102.1 IP, 0 HR, .188 against avg, 126 Ks, 48 BBs
Jordan Stephens (#27, Soph, RHP) – 8-4, ERA 2.48, 112.1 IP, 3 HRs, .213 against avg, 95 Ks, 29 BBs
John Simms (#13, Jr, RHP) – 8-4, ERA 2.61, 103.1 IP, 6 HRs, .223 against avg., 90 Ks, 34 BBs
And though I don’t usually bother trying to talk about individual bullpen performers of the opposition, this time I’m making an exception. Remember the name Zech Lemond (#33, Soph, RHP). Zech carries a 1.52 ERA on 71.0 IP. He has 7 wins (7-1) out of the pen, has collected 14 saves and has a .198 against avg.
The Owls have other capable arms in the pen as well, but Zech Lemond (tell me that’s not a name they’d love in Chapel Hill) is a cut above and the Owls rely on him a LOT. It would be very surprising if Wolfpack batters didn’t have to face him this weekend at some crucial point.
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Defensively, the Owls are pretty solid with a fldpct of .974 (37th), though 3rd baseman Hoelscher can sometimes be rather suspect in bunches. The Pack still struggles a bit on the bottom side of average at .968 (107th)
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Rice University Vitals
Founded: 1912
Located: Houston, Texas
Total Enrollment: 6000+
Athletics Mascot: Sammy the Owl
Colors: Blue and Gray
Famous Alumni: Former Sec. of State James Baker, Former Atty. General Alberto Gonzales, former major leaguer Lance Berkman (yeah, I know he’s with the Rangers now…wanna take bets on whether he makes it to the break without another trip to the DL? Hang ’em up Lance, your body will thank you later), and Candace Bushnell, infamous author of “Sex and the City”. I told you heathens last time to read a book. Feel free to skip that one.
Kinda Weird Tradtion: The Baker 13…what’s the point of streaking if you’re gonna cover up the best parts with shaving cream?
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Links:
Rice Owls Baseball Home (RiceOwls.com)
C-USA Baseball Home (ConferenceUSA.com)
Pack Hosts Raleigh Super Regional (GoPack.com)
2013 NCAA Baseball Tournament Interactive Bracket (NCAA.com)
Raleigh Super Regional Info (GoPack.com)
Previewing the CWS super regionals (ESPN.com)
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Games Schedule – TV
- Friday June 7th, 4pm – ESPN2
- Saturday June 8th, 4pm – ESPN2
- Sunday June 9th, 4pm – ESPNU (if necessary)
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I wanted to give a shout out the Wolfpack Nation. The support for the baseball team has been tremendous in general here just lately.
Specifically, I also wanted to tell the patrons of our blog specifically how much I’ve enjoyed their increased interest and participation in our baseball threads. I really do appreciate the chatter.
I was actually shocked (pleasantly) by how many folks came around for the evening sessions Monday to keep up with the Ducks/Owls (and to a lesser extent, those effing guys and the other Owls).
Also, there had been a request for a little analysis of the teams remaining and how they might stack up heading towards Omaha. I decided to hold off on that for now for two reasons.
First, mojo. Don’t want to get cocky and start looking too far ahead.
And Second, I’ll be doing research on at least 8 teams in all likelihood should we make Omaha, though admittedly the depth of that research is yet to be determined as that always depends on what kind of week I’m having. Plus, this week I wanted to give the Owls their due and concentrate on them. Not to mention that I didn’t want to talk about 16 teams, 8 of which won’t be standing after Monday.
But…to give a bit of a taste…the CWS is comprised of two separate four team double elim brackets. The winners of those two brackets then face off for a best of three to determine a national champion. Also, rest and pitching isn’t usually QUITE as big of an issue as each bracket alternates days of play.
The brackets will go a little something like this for the initial matchups:
Bracket A
#1 vs #8 – N.Carolina/S.Carolina winner vs. NC State/Rice winner
#4 vs #5 – LSU/Oklahoma winner vs CS Fullerton/UCLA winner
Bracket B
#2 vs #7 – Vandy/Louisville winner vs FSU/Indiana winner
#3 vs #6 – Oregon State/K State winner vs UVa/Miss. St. winner
Of those teams, all were #1 seeds in their regional aside from Rice and Oklahoma, and all of the national seeds except Oregon made it thru. So, regardless of which of those teams end up advancing from Supers and filling those seeded slots it’s going to be a very good CWS.
Better if the Pack gets that first round shot at the Heels, however.
Incidentally, if all of the favorites win this weekend, the ACC will have four of the eight teams in Omaha. That might be fun.
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Go Pack!! Beat the Owls then PACK for Omaha!!!
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