Friday Farrago

NC STATE BASKETBALL

Tim Crothers (N&O)
NC State’s Howell, Wood remember the beginning

Once upon a time, many years ago, their story began at a Pizza Hut on Western Boulevard.

Two freshmen. One sprung from SEC soil. The other straight out of Hoosiers. One a relentless rebounder. The other the kind of sublime jump shooter for whom rebounding is rarely necessary. They ate slices and they talked. Well, one of them talked.

By all accounts, beyond choosing his toppings, Richard Howell barely spoke that night in August of 2009. Scott Wood and his parents tried to engage the shy kid from Georgia who they were meeting for the first time, but Howell set a monosyllabic screen that could not be breached.

Howell and Wood laugh when they rewind to that evening, both wondering what the other must have thought about Howell’s conspicuous silence.

Like so many seniors, Howell and Wood say that dinner four years ago feels like it happened yesterday, which is surprising in their case considering the breadth of their journey, the many highs and lowes they have endured together.

The Wolfpack lost 22 ACC games during their first two seasons, prompting the dismissal of coach Sidney Lowe in 2011. Fellow recruits in their class of 2009, Josh Davis and DeShawn Painter, transferred to Tulane and Old Dominion, respectively.

Julius Mays left N.C. State for Wright State. Ryan Harrow showed up in Raleigh, played one season, then resurfaced at Kentucky. Jaqawn Raymond fled to Middle Tennessee State, Tyler Harris to Providence and Thomas de Thaey just went home to Belgium.

Howell and Wood couldn’t help but think, should I be leaving, too?

“I can’t even count how many times it ran through my mind how badly I wanted to get out of here,” Howell says. “But I talked to people I trusted who told me I had to be patient until my time came.”

Howell and Wood have leaned on each other through all the drama, building as much a bond as a friendship, a mutual respect for each other’s resiliency.

“Our relationship has grown over the years to where he actually talks to me,” Wood says. “Rich and I have been through a lot of good times and bad times. We lost games and teammates and coaches and we were always the ones still here.”

Matt Carter (TheWolfpacker.com)
Quick hits from NC State’s win over Wake Forest

Senior night

Wednesday night was the last time Wood and center Richard Howell heard their names called at the PNC Arena. Both though probably could have had better nights.

Wood struggled shooting for the second straight game. He made 2 of 7 shots and 1 of 5 threes to finish with eight points. In his last two games, Wood is 3 of 15 from the field and 1-10 on three-pointers. He still tied former Duke guard Jason Williams for eighth place all-time in ACC history for made three-pointers and is nine behind Rodney Monroe for the most in school history. Wood, assuming NC State is a lock for the NCAA Tournament, has at least three games to reach Monroe’s mark.

Howell was benched must of the first half with two fouls and finished with nine points and five rebounds in 21 minutes. He needs four more boards to reach 1,000 career rebounds. He would be just the fifth player in NC State history to reach that milestone.

Also making an appearance on senior night was walk-on guard Jay Lewis. He played the final two minutes of the contest, and much to the delight of the Wolfpack bench and the partisan crowd nailed his second career three-pointer.

NC State is 2-0 on home senior nights under head coach Mark Gottfried. They have a chance to improve to 5-0 overall on senior nights Saturday afternoon at Florida Stae.

Spotted at the game

Five-star point guard Anthony Barber from Hampton (Va.) High, NC State’s top signee in the 2013 class, was in attendance. So too was a pair of highly regarded junior forwards: four-star Isaac Copeland from Miller School in Crozet, Va., and three-star Gary Clark, who has been posting impressive numbers this season for Clayton (N.C.) High.

Former NC State player Gavin Grant was also at the game.

Not spotted at the game was Wake Forest freshman guard Codi Miller-McIntyre. He missed the game with a strep throat. Miller-McIntyre is averaging 8.1 points and 2.5 assists a game as Wake’s starting point guard.

ACC BASKETBALL

Robbi Pickeral (ESPN.com)
Conference Power Rankings: ACC

So what was more surprising on Thursday night: Michael Snaer’s fourth game winner this season (and sixth over the past two seasons), or another loss by Virginia, which continues to play slip-and-slide with the NCAA tournament bubble? With one more weekend left in the ACC’s regular season — and it could be a doozy — here’s another attempt at the league’s power rankings:

1. Duke. Ryan Kelly missed two months with a foot injury, but he sure hasn’t looked like it. The Blue Devils forward has averaged 27 points in the two games since his return, scoring 36 in Duke’s down-to-the-wire nail-biter Saturday against then-No. 5 Miami, and then 18 on Tuesday’s Senior Night against Virginia Tech. Duke is now 17-0 this season with Kelly in the lineup — and will be trying for 18-0 in Saturday’s showdown at UNC.

2. North Carolina. One of the keys to the Tar Heels going small? Getting some big play out of wing Reggie Bullock. The junior has posted three double-doubles in UNC’s past four games, and is averaging 15.5 points and 9 rebounds during his team’s six-game winning streak. The Tar Heels have secured a first-day ACC tournament bye. And as for that NCAA tournament bubble — what bubble?

3. Miami. Just two weeks ago, it looked as if the Hurricanes were going to win the ACC regular season in a runaway. But they’ve now dropped three of their past four — including the down-to-the-wire classic at Duke last weekend and Wednesday’s loss to Georgia Tech when they squandered a double-digit lead. Miami can still clinch the outright regular-season title versus Clemson on Saturday. But the Canes drop in these power rankings after an 0-2 week.

4. NC State. In his last game of the season at PNC Arena on Wednesday, forward C.J. Leslie played his most complete game of the season — recording 19 points, 10 rebounds, 4 assists and 4 blocks against Wake Forest. The Wolfpack have now won six of their past seven games and this weekend still could earn the third seed in the league tournament.

5. Michael Snaer. Florida State could be lower in these rankings, but the senior guard deserves an upper-half slot all by himself. After all, if not for his four game winners this season — the latest on a left-handed runner with 4 seconds left against Virginia on Thursday night — the Seminoles would be 4-13 in ACC play, instead of 8-9. FSU has now won two of its past three games, with Snaer averaging 18.3 points during that stretch.

Joe Giglio (N&O)
FSU’s win Thursday, helps Wolfpack’s tourney chances

With a win over Virginia on Thursday night, Florida State opened the door for N.C. State to earn a bye in the ACC tournament.

N.C. State, 11-6 in the ACC, would clinch an opening-round bye with a win over FSU on Saturday. The Wolfpack would be the No. 3 seed if Duke (13-4) beats UNC (12-5) on Saturday in Chapel Hill. State would be the No. 4 seed with a win and a UNC home win on Saturday.

The Wolfpack, which has won six of its past seven ACC games, could still land the No. 4 seed with a loss at FSU. If Virginia (10-7) loses at home to Maryland on Sunday, the Pack would still avoid having to play in Thursday’s opening round.

A Wolfpack loss coupled with a Virginia win against Maryland would relegate the Pack to the No. 5 seed.

Brett Friedlander (starnewsonline.com)
Updated first round ACC tournament bye scenarios

North Carolina: Will clinch the No. 3 seed with a win against Duke on Saturday OR an N.C. State loss at Florida State;

Will clinch the No. 4 seed with a loss to Duke AND an N.C. State win at Florida State.

N.C. State: Will clinch the No. 3 seed with a win at Florida State on Saturday AND a UNC loss to Duke;

Will clinch the No. 4 seed with a win at Florida State AND a win by UNC against Duke OR UVa loss to Maryland;

Clinches the No. 5 seed with a loss at Florida State and a UVa win against Maryland.

Virginia: Clinches the No. 4 seed with a win against Maryland on Sunday AND an N.C. State loss at Florida State;

Clinches the No. 5 seed with a loss to Maryland OR an N.C. State win at Florida State.

NC STATE WOMEN’S BASKETBALL

Mike Potter (N&O)
NC State women beat Clemson 56-45 in ACC tourney opener

“It’s really important for our players to understand that it’s a great team win. Clemson came in fighting and we knew that was going to happen. It’s tournament time and records are 0-0. I thought we were a little tight on the offensive end. Sometimes you see that in the first-round games.”

[snip]

“In the beginning of the season I was playing tight and Coach pulled me aside and said, ‘You’ve got to live in the moment. Your senior year is only going to happen once,” said Kastanek, who was first-team all-conference by the league’s coaches and was honored with the Kay Yow Award as the ACC’s best women’s basketball student-athlete for the second straight year. “You don’t want to go through it worrying about how it’s going to end. I’m just living in the moment and relying on my teammates.”

Markeisha Gatling had 11 rebounds to go with her six points for the Wolfpack.

N.C. State shot 34.7 percent to the Tigers’ 30.2 and won the rebound battle by a scant 40-39, but it was 18-for-25 from the free-throw line to Clemson’s 6-for-7. The Wolfpack committed 19 turnovers to the Tigers’ 16.

“We didn’t really have the first-round jitters,” Burke said. “This is my third time in the ACC tournament. But I’d say in the second half when the shots started going in a lot more we were able to relax a little bit.”

“We didn’t really have the first-round jitters,” Burke said. “This is my third time in the ACC tournament. But I’d say in the second half when the shots started going in a lot more we were able to relax a little bit.”

GoPack.com
NC State Advances to ACC Quarters with 56-45 Win Over Clemson

For the fourth-straight season, the NC State women’s basketball team advanced to the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament, defeating Clemson, 56-45, in the first round Thursday afternoon at the Greensboro Coliseum.

NC State (16-15, 7-11 ACC) took down Clemson (9-21, 5-13 ACC) in all three meetings this season, marking the first time the Wolfpack defeated an opponent three times in one season since beating Maryland on three occasions in 1995-96.

Kody Burke led the way with 16 points and six rebounds, Marissa Kastanek chipped in 14 points and Markeisha Gatling pulled down 11 rebounds to lead the Pack.

“We’re excited to be moving on,” said head coach Kellie Harper. “It’s really important for our players to understand that it’s a great team win. Clemson came in fighting. We knew that was going to happen. It’s tournament time.”
The eighth-seeded Wolfpack will take on top-seeded Duke (27-2, 17-1 ACC) in Friday’s quarterfinal for the second-straight year. Opening tip is scheduled for 2 p.m.

NC STATE BASEBALL

R. Cory Smith (N&O)
NC State’s Turner approaching school record for stolen bases

Trea Turner is competitive in, well, just about everything.

Between baseball games, practices and classes, the N.C. State shortstop can be found in his dorm room playing video games with roommates Dillon Frye or Carlos Rodon. When he loses, Frye said, it isn’t pretty.

“When he loses, he’s jumping up and screaming and rubbing it in your face when he wins,” said Frye, a sophomore relief pitcher. “I’ll hear him screaming in his room sometimes when he plays ‘Call of Duty’ … he just always wants to get better and can’t stand losing.”

[snip]

“It’s something very special to me,” Turner said of the stolen base record currently held by Tom Sergio, who played from 1994 to 1997. “It’s obviously not something everyone can do. But I’m not there yet, so I’ve still got some work to do.”

While breaking the record is important to Turner, he doesn’t want to just be known for his speed. The Lake Worth, Fla., native spent the offseason working on his approach at the plate to get on base more often.

Through 13 games, he leads the Wolfpack with a .490 batting average with 17 RBIs and 11 extra-base hits, including four home runs.

“At USA, everyone knew me as, ‘The kid who steals all the bases,’ ” Turner said, referring to his tenure with Team USA on the Collegiate National Team last summer. “But just being fast doesn’t always work, you have to be a complete player. You can’t steal a base without getting on base first.

“I want to be known for more than just stealing bases … I think I’m getting there.”

With just eight more stolen bases needed to tie the record, Turner could accomplish the feat this weekend when N.C. State hosts Clemson in the first ACC weekend series of the season.

NCAA

Peter Tiernan (BracketScience.com)
NCAA tournament myth-busting: Have we really achieved parity?

Every year around this time, we hear the experts proclaim that parity has come to college basketball. In light of Gonzaga’s ascension to No. 1 in the AP Top 25, it’s fitting to ask whether the declaration is true for the tourney. Since 2006, a host of mid-major Cinderellas — including George Mason, Butler and VCU — have spoiled the party for the power conferences. But is this really a sustainable trend or a short-term aberration?

[snip]

The most recent seven-year period has actually seen the fewest number of mid-major and small conference teams in the tourney. Since 2006, only 47.8 percent of the tournament field has been comprised of nonpower conference teams. Over the first 14 years of the 64-team era, 55.1 percent of tourney teams came from smaller conferences. So, on the question of tourney inclusion, mid-majors and smalls are actually moving away from parity.

That doesn’t say anything, however, about the performance of the fewer teams making the dance. I did a PASE analysis (that’s “Performance Against Seed Expectations” if you haven’t been following my blog) of the power and nonpower conferences for the same seven-year periods. This what I found:

Over the first three eras of the 64-team tourney, power conferences performed progressively better against seed expectations. It has only been in the last seven years that the trend has reversed and mid-major/smalls have been the overachievers. So an argument could be made that, while fewer nonpower teams are making the tourney, they’re outperforming their power counterparts.

But let’s not get carried away here. The +.025 PASE rate of nonpower teams works out to just 5.3 victories better than the 102.7 games that they were supposed to win. In fact, that PASE rate is less than one game per dance above expectations. Not only that, but mid-major/smalls have just an 11.6 average seed in the dance, compared to a 5.7 seed for power conferences. So we’re not talking about the same quality of teams. In other words, the bar for overachievement is lower.

UNCABulldogs.com
Longwood Downs UNC Asheville 87-72

UNC Asheville’s two-year reign as Big South Conference champions came to a disappointing end Tuesday afternoon in the first round of the league tournament at Coastal Carolina.

Longwood (8-24), the sixth seed from the North Division, made its Big South Tournament debut a successful one as the Lancers led wire-to-wire en route to an 87-72 win over the third-seeded Bulldogs from the South Division. Longwood will now play VMI Thursday afternoon at 2 p.m. in the quarterfinals.

The Lancers were led by freshman guard Tristan Carey with 21 points and six steals. Karl Ziegler and Lucas Woodhouse added 17 points each, while David Robinson chipped in 15 points.

Asheville’s season ended with a 16-16 overall record and lost five of its last six games. The Bulldogs were led by senior forward Jeremy Atkinson with 19 points and 11 rebounds. Keith Hornsby finished with 14 points, five assists, five rebounds and four steals. Will Weeks and Jon Nwannunu chipped in 11 points each.

“This is a very disappointing loss,” explained Asheville head coach Eddie Biedenbach. “We just didn’t play very well today or the last part of the season. Our guys battled hard in the second half, but we didn’t play good enough defense in the first half and turned the ball over way too much.

“I hate it for our guys as they worked hard the whole year but we just didn’t run offense the way we should have in the first half,” added Biedenbach. “When you fall behind like we did, you have to play almost perfect to come back, and we didn’t do that in the second half.”

Joe Lunardi (ESPN.com)
Bracketology

March 8, 2013

ACC (5)

Duke(1), Miami(3), North Carolina(6), NC State(8), Virginia(12)

Eamonn Brennan (ESPN.com)
College Basketball Bubble Watch

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Virginia, Maryland

Roundball fans in the great state of North Carolina — which, based on my experience, is just about everyone — can breathe deep: North Carolina and NC State have joined the Duke Blue Devils on the lock line. (Sorry, Wake.) North Carolina was the first to earn our lock-worthy respect after its Wednesday night win at Maryland. That left just this weekend’s rivalry game with Duke to play, and come on — it’s not like a loss to Duke is going to keep the Tar Heels out. Then we dove in further and noticed that even though NC State has a trickier matchup (bubble-wise, anyway) at Florida State this weekend, a loss could hardly drop it below the rest of the bubble. In fact, NC State’s CV is nearly identical to North Carolina’s; if one goes in, it’s hard to discount the other. Which leaves just Maryland and Virginia.

Virginia [20-10 (10-7), RPI: 72, SOS: 123] The Cavaliers are good. They just seem determined to prove otherwise. That is the best explanation I can come up with for Virginia’s past three games, which began with as promising an RPI victory as a bubble team can get in last week’s win over Duke. UVa looked great against the Blue Devils, not only controlling pace but playing some really deep, smart defense, and all of the positive efficiency trends we’ve seen from Virginia for so much of the season were on full display. And then, of course, the Cavs lost at Boston College, and followed that up with Thursday night’s loss at Florida State. That all but deletes whatever positive profile boost they got from the Duke win, and will keep them mired in the bubble mess even with a win over Maryland in the ACC regular-season closer Sunday.

Maryland [20-10 (8-9), RPI: 86, SOS: 107] As soon as Maryland fell to UNC at home Wednesday, the pronouncements started coming far and wide (OK, maybe just on Twitter): Maryland’s done! They’re going to the NIT! Loud noises! I wouldn’t discount them so fast. Sure, the Terps’ profile isn’t great and they were already on the wrong side of the bubble before Wednesday’s loss. But I’m not sure how much a loss to UNC hurts you at this point, and the bubble doesn’t really operate on opportunity cost. Is Maryland really in worse shape now? Either way, the Terps weren’t in a great spot before the night started, and now they almost certainly need to win at Virginia this weekend in what could end up being a do-or-die bubble showdown. It’s a race to the finish.

Jerry Palm (CBSSports.com)
2013 NCAA Basketball Tournament Prediction

Bracket updated on: Fri Mar 8 06:07:30 2013

Duke (1), Miami (3), UNC (8), NCSU (9)

Jerry Palm (CBSSports.com)
College Basketball Bubble Watch

Probably Out:
Virginia (20-10, 10-7, 5th ACC ) | RPI/Rank: 0.5584/72 | SOS/Rank: 0.5223/123

Jay Coleman, Mike DuMond, & Allen Lynch
NCAA Tournament “Dance Card”

Below are rankings of all NCAA Division I men’s basketball teams through the games of Wednesday, March 6, 2013, according to the “Dance Card” formula developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida, Mike DuMond of Charles River Associates, and Allen Lynch of Mercer University.

Rank… Team…….. Chance of Bid
1…… Duke…….. 100.00%
5…… Michigan….. 100.00%
10….. Miami……. 100.00%
19….. Oklahoma St…… 100.00%
22….. UNC……… 100.00%
26….. NC State…. 100.00%
45….. UVA……… 87.26%
51….. Kentucky… 45.31%
THE BUBBLE BURST HERE
52….. Louisiana Tech….. 31.45%
53….. Stanford………. 25.60%
63….. UMass…….….. 1.07%
65….. Arizona St….. 0.50%
66….. Maryland…. 0.25%
84….. Florida St…… 0.00%

TeamRankings.com
Bracketology 2013

N.C. State Wolfpack NCAA Tournament Bracketology Projection

Prediction Seed: 7

RealTimeRPI.com
Bracket Projections – Men’s Basketball (2012-2013)

Last update: 2013-03-06 11::44

Duke (1), Miami (1), UNC (6), NCSU (7)

Bracketproject.50webs.com
The 2013 Bracket Matrix

Matrix Last Updated: 3/7/13 7:53 PM

Seed… Avg Seed… # of Brackets… Team
1……… 1.02………… 93……………… Duke
2……… 2.17………… 93……………… Miami
2……… 2.45………… 93……………… Michigan
5……… 4.63………… 93……………… Oklahoma State
8……… 7.62………… 93……………… NC State
8……… 7.62………… 93……………… North Carolina
12…….. 11.46……….. 69……………… Virginia
16…….. 15.98……….. 80……………… Norfolk State