2012-2013 Basketball: Realistic Expectations?

We’re talking a lot of football on the site, and rightfully so.  But let’s take a quick side trip to the basketball court ahead of Saturday’s game and discuss expectations.

Do You Believe the Hype?

As we anticipate the start of the 2012-2013 hoops campaign, we find ourselves in unfamiliar territory for our favorite team: high expectations, national attention, hype, hype, hype!  In general, most pre-season polls have the Wolfpack in the top ten, although there are a few outliers.  I’ve personally seen the ‘Pack as high as 4th, but in most polls, the team seems to fall in the 5-15 range.  One notably divergent opinion is the recently released kenpom.com stats, where the Wolfpack debuts at 24th.

I’ve seen national media personalities predicting a Final Four appearance, and I’ve seen others strongly suggest that the team is highly over-rated.  How do we set proper expectations for the upcoming season?

The Good ‘ol Days

One of the frequent claims about NC State fans is that we “live in the past”.  While I don’t agree with that assessment at all, if we’re going to get accused of it, let’s indulge our detractors for a brief spell.

In thinking about setting expectations for this season, I wondered how previous coaches and teams, especially those often referred to as “the good ‘ol days”, fared during the seasons when they went to the NCAA tournament.

NC State teams under Case and Sloan were sometimes dominant (locally, if not nationally).  But it’s instructive to note that while Norm assembled what I consider the greatest college team ever from ’73-’74, he only took teams to the NCAA tournament three times in 14 years as head coach.  Yes, he should have gone in ’73 and yes, it was a lot harder to get in back then, but everybody else played by the same rules.  For those doing the math, that’s making the tournament at a clip just north of 20% of the time.

How did that tenure look, season by season?  The following chart shows, by season, overall win % (blue) and conference win % (red):

During his tenure, Sloan took the Wolfpack to 3 NCAA tournaments:

During his entire tenure, Sloan was 266-127 (68%) overall and 103-77 (57%) in the conference.

What about Valvano?

Jimmy led the ‘Pack for 10 seasons, from 1981-1990.  His tenure, from the same perspective, looks like this:

By contrast, Jimmy went to the NCAA tournament 7 out of 10 seasons, with the following results:

During his entire tenure, Jimmy was 209-114 (65%) overall, and 71-69 (51%) in conference.

So what’s the point?  Simply that even during our historical high points, those that we look back on warmly and fondly, successful NC State teams were rarely dominant (at a national level) to the point that they swept through the season with ease.

Success Criteria

In my line of work, one of the most important things to do before starting a project is to establish success criteria at the outset.  So what do I consider success in a college basketball program?

  • Build on previous success, year over year.  Expectations for an emerging program should build on the previous year’s accomplishments.
  • Play to potential.  In my opinion, this is the ultimate measure of a coach’s effectiveness – his ability to get the individuals to coalesce into a team and maximize their performance.  Easily said, but difficult to measure.
  • It’s all about the NCAA tournament.  It really is.  All that matters is getting in the tournament with the best seed possible, and making sure that the players are peaking at tourney time.
  • Don’t cheat.  Find ways to maximize within the rules, compete hard with everybody, but don’t cheat.

My Expectations

Bearing in mind the vast difference between something I hope for and something I expect, my expectations from last year were pretty simple:

  • Work hard in practice, play hard in the games.  Not some of the time, all the time.
  • Play together as a team.
  • Learn the coach’s system, especially on offense.  Get good at it, to the point that when I see it, I think “hey, these guys are actually doing things on purpose.”
  • NCAA tournament bid was not required, but would be icing on the cake

Judged by my expectations, 2012 was a great year.

So here’s what I expect this year:

[unordered_list style=”star”]

  • Continue to fine-tune the offense, especially in light of incoming talent.
  • Focus on defense.  Outscoring opponents is fun, but risky.  Shutting them down defensively demoralizes them.
  • Don’t panic if you lose a game – even a game that you should have won.  A consistent winning culture has to be built.  Analyze it, learn from it, and fix it.
  • Compete in every game.  No blowout losses to ANY opponent.
  • Finish in the top three of the ACC.  The regular season “championship” is relatively meaningless, but to get there requires winning enough games to ensure a higher seed in the tournament.
  • Make the final game of the ACC tournament.
  • On NCAA selection day, be in a position to already know you’re in.  Duplicate last year’s success in making the Sweet 16.
  • Don’t cheat.  Don’t embarrass the University.  Go to class, make the grades.  Get help if you need it.

[/unordered_list]

My advice to fans going into this season is to enjoy the hype, but view it cautiously.  Remember that most of the hype is being generated by national media figures.  These same individuals told us years ago to remember our place and to embrace our subservient position to the blues.  They told us we were fools to expect to compete with the blues.  They told us we were fools to be dissatisfied with HWSNBN’s mediocrity.  It’s ironic (to say the least) to see them jumping on the bandwagon, but they still have zero credibility with me.

Based on past experience for the program, I don’t expect to see this team buzz through the season crushing all competition with relative ease.  I foresee some head scratching losses, especially early in the season.  I will not panic when this happens.  But for the first time in years, I also anticipate some very, very satisfying victories as well.  During the Valvano years, I didn’t panic when the teams lost a game, because I felt like they would be ready at tournament time.  It’s nice to have that feeling again.

So, those are what I consider realistic and reasonable expectations.  I hope the team wins the ACC tournament, and puts together a Final Four run.  But that’s hope, not expectation.

For Those Who Can’t Help Themselves

In a nod to a friend, a die-hard State fan and absolute eternal optimist, there is a very small minority of fans and media members who are talking in hushed tones about national championship aspirations.  As I said before, I really, really hope to see that, but I don’t expect it.  Just for grins, I looked at the teams who won the eventual title from 1980-2012 and charted the total number of losses for the year:

As you can see, the number of losses varies widely from a low of one (UCLA, 1995) to a high of 11 (Kansas, 1988).  I made an attempt at constructing a 95% confidence interval around the number of losses and came up with 4.16 – 6.08.  So if the team gets to 7 losses, history says you’re not likely to be champ.  BTW, I haven’t done a statistical calculation in 30 years, so caveat emptor.

Fire away in the comments – where did I miss the mark?  And what are your hopes and expectations?

 

GO PACK!

About ncsu1987

Senior IT Manager for Fortune 500 company living in central NC. Grew up a basketball player and fan, discovered college football while attending college. Proud alumnus of NC State University since 1987.

12-13 Basketball

49 Responses to 2012-2013 Basketball: Realistic Expectations?

  1. Cabin Creek Wolf 11/01/2012 at 10:49 AM #

    Who the hell are the idiots saying National Championship? That. Is. Absurd. Would I love it? Yes. Would I be so excited as to agree to let someone tattoo the block S on my back while I’m doing donuts in my Chevy truck? Yes. But even remotely entertaining that idea is inviting serious letdown from a foolish ASSumption. Chill, people.

    This year’s expectation should be a top-3 finish in the ACC. Guaranteed seeding in the top-6 of a bracket of the dance.

    You know what, that’s still a helluva lot higher than where we’ve been in the past 25 years.

    Gott(a) build the foundation before anyone can be serious about having NCSU as a title contender.

    GO WOLFPACK!

  2. ncsu1987 11/01/2012 at 10:56 AM #

    ^hopefully my friend will see your comment. Doesn’t do any good for me to say “idiot”, so every little bit helps…

  3. old13 11/01/2012 at 11:17 AM #

    :>)

  4. Pack85EE 11/01/2012 at 11:22 AM #

    “These same individuals told us years ago to remember our place and to embrace our subservient position to the blues”

    It has been only 19 months since those blowhards told us we were not in the same league and should accept mediocrity. Pound them all Pack!

  5. MP 11/01/2012 at 12:11 PM #

    My expectation: No more than 6 total losses by the end of the ACC Tourney.

    Predicting national championships, etc. is foolish in the pre-season… But the bottom line is this team has the talent, experience, and coaching to be very very good. So using the ‘benchmark’ established by this awesome post, I think it is reasonable that the ‘Pack enter the NCAA Tourney with as good a chance as most if not all teams. Enter the NCAA Tourney with no more than 6 losses. And just maybe finish the tourney with the same number of losses you brought in.

  6. Greywolf 11/01/2012 at 1:23 PM #

    Unfulfilled Expectations (and 2 other factors) are the sources of Upsets. So I’ve learned over time to have hopes and dreams but to limit my expectations. To say I don’t expect us to do well would be below the limit of my expectations. I hope we beat the blues like a drum and my dreams are for an ACC championshiop, a high seed in the big dance and a run to the final 4.

    For anybody who might be interested, the other 2 factors are Thwarted Intentions (I intended to be on time to pickup my date but I had a flat) and Undelivered Communications (I’m upset if my wife doesn’t show up but not if she communicates that before hand).

  7. 808WOLF 11/01/2012 at 1:40 PM #

    Great piece.

    Just in case anyone missed it, the lowest number of losses by an eventual national champion (since 1980) belonged to a team running our offense with our current head coach as an assistant.

  8. PackerInRussia 11/01/2012 at 1:55 PM #

    “Are there any CHASS Alums on Statefansnation who have seen enough bar graphs ”

    I’m a CHASS grad who happens to like bar graphs. Especially when they have pretty colors. 😉

  9. ncsu1987 11/01/2012 at 2:34 PM #

    “Are there any CHASS Alums on Statefansnation who have seen enough bar graphs ”

    see: http://i50.tinypic.com/wme68.png

  10. ryebread 11/01/2012 at 2:44 PM #

    People tend to forget that programs — and that is coaches and players — need to learn how to win big. It won’t happen typically in the first season that it should.

    That’s why I wouldn’t pick NC State to win the ACC — at least not the regular season. We might win the ACC tourney.

    Realistically, I’d say we should finish in the top 3 in the conference and get back to the Sweet 16. That should be the expectations IMHO.

    I personally believe we can get to the Elite 8. Anything further would just be gravy.

  11. Texpack 11/01/2012 at 3:34 PM #

    V was in his third year when we won the National Championship.

  12. tuckerdorm1983 11/01/2012 at 4:19 PM #

    look, we lack a premier center. We may have enough big players to get the job done. I think the big question is whether Vandenburg can fill in just enough. At every other position we are fine. More than fine.

    Foul trouble for Howell or Leslie will be trouble. When we face an Indiana type team we will have our hands full. Gott is trying to rectify the situation. That is the limitation I see. Just to note I don’t count Plumlees or McAdoo as premier. Cozell McQueen was not a premier big man and never made it in the NBA. He was big enough to keep Alajawon(spelling??) in check. That may be all we need.

  13. wolf90 11/01/2012 at 4:41 PM #

    The only measure of achievement in this situation (i.e. measuring up to hype) when its all said and done is wins and losses. I think if we come into ACC play with 1 loss, we’re in a great position, especially if it’s to Michigan. Zero losses? That’d be really nice.

    Looking at our personnel and our pre-Janurary schedule, I see fewer roots to trip on before ACC play begins compared to last year. Last season we struggled on the road at Stanford and almost lost to St. Bonaventure on the road. This season we have Cleveland St., Norfolk St., Standford, and St. Bonnie all AT HOME. In fact, the whole month of December, aside from the Jimmy V classic, we play at home.

    So I’m gonna call a slightly bold prediciton right now: We enter ACC play undefeated.

  14. ncsu1987 11/01/2012 at 4:59 PM #

    “So I’m gonna call a slightly bold prediciton right now: We enter ACC play undefeated.”

    Michigan plays only two games – Slippery Rock (Division II?) and IUPUI, who are currently projected #224 on kenpom.

    By contrast, NC State plays Belmont Abbey exhibition, followed by Miami (OH) at #241, Penn State at #67, and UNC-Asheville at #173.

    Looks like we get a much better warmup ahead of the game. Crisler Center is not a big arena, but those fans are right on top of the court, and it can be a tough place to play. Will be a tough place to win. Gutsy call.

  15. StateMan 11/01/2012 at 9:34 PM #

    18 acc games this year, 15-3…good for first place

  16. MattN 11/01/2012 at 10:04 PM #

    What I remember is a team that finally “got it” with the UCLA high-post offense last year about mid-way through the ACC calender and played 2 of the best teams in the country (UNC and Kansas) to virtal stalemates. Add in another year of experience and one of the best classes in the country and I don’t think the expectations of “better than 2012” are unrealistic. 26-27 wins, Elite 8 appearance? This is a significantly better team than last year and a whole lot of other teams (in and out of conference) lost major talent to the NBA. This is likely to be the most talent in Raleigh since 1983. It just might possibly be the most talent since 1974.

    Can’t. Wait…

  17. JohnGalt78 11/02/2012 at 1:10 AM #

    Predictors, don’t forget the Karl Hess factor. He and the gang hold a special place in their collective hearts for us.

  18. vtpackfan 11/02/2012 at 8:53 AM #

    Stand corrected, V was in third year, he was coming off his first year bringing Pack to the dance.

    No disrespect for charts- I totally would have voted for Perot if I was of age 🙂

  19. 61Packer 11/02/2012 at 9:24 AM #

    Just avoid finishing below 4th in the ACC.

  20. ncsu1987 11/02/2012 at 11:26 AM #

    “No disrespect for charts- I totally would have voted for Perot if I was of age”

    Understood, and did not take offense at all. Just making a little joke at my own expense. My colleagues joke about me quite a bit: can’t do a presentation without charts, graphs and other visuals; can’t speak for more than 15 seconds without starting to wave the hands…

  21. Lunatic Fringe 11/02/2012 at 12:58 PM #

    I cringe when I see people state no expectations for NCAA tournament.

    It sounds like something that comes from “he who shall not be named” since it is “too unpredictable”. I view it as a cop out from someone who routinely found his teams listed as a lower seed and statistically had an uphill battle just to make it to the Sweet 16.

    The season is a showcase to build resume for high seed and thus improve you seeding, chance to move further in tournament, and odds to win championship. The “making the tournament” milestone is great, but with expire nice of last year…we should aim a little higher.

    Our goal this year should be to get top 4 Seed since the odds of making S16 are drastically higher.

    % of teams make S16:
    1 Seed – 89%
    1,2 Seed – 76%
    1,2,3 Seed – 68%
    1,2,3,4 Seed – 62%

    4 Seed – 44%
    9 Seed – 10%

  22. LRM 11/02/2012 at 6:18 PM #

    LRM and I are already making plans for Atlanta.

    No sleep til Atlanta, eh.

  23. newclass 11/03/2012 at 6:50 PM #

    Cabin Creek Wolf

    if we Win an NC, would you really get teh block S tat? because…. i would love you forever if you did.

  24. TMD11 11/04/2012 at 9:58 PM #

    I believe all should keep an open mind all year long. This team is very good, and good enough with a break or two to win it all.
    Some interesting facts from watching basketball since 1972… 1) most/all championship teams have three scorers; 2) most/all championship teams have three veterans; 3) most/all have a veteran point guard; 4) most/all have a special chemistry; 5) most/all have to endure a major loss or adversity and also come back to win a very close game. And 6) most/all have tremendous character if not superior talent which can carry them…. This NCSU team has #1-3 , and probably #4. Number 5 is TBD, and number 6 is a possibility.

    If this team plays smart and plays defense, this year will be special….

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