Gainesville Super Regional Preview

Baseball153

Wolfpack Baseball invades the University of Florida’s McKethan Stadium in Gainesville this weekend for a best of three date with the Gators for the NCAA Super Regionals. The Pack departed Raleigh Wednesday night, but before boarding their redeye charter, Wolfpack baseball players and coaches participated in a ceremony honoring the 68th anniversary of the WWII allied forces’ “D-Day” invasions of France, which included lighting the Belltower red.

 

On To Gainesville

The Pack celebrates its Raleigh victory.

After their exciting Raleigh Regional victory which saw the Pack win four games, including three straight with their backs against the wall and two out of three against #2 seeded Vanderbilt, Wolfpack Baseball finds itself in the NCAA Tournament’s Super Regionals for the first time since 2008, and one step away from its first College World Series appearance since 1968. To make it through Gainesville and reach Omaha, however, the Wolfpack will need to play its best ball of the season.

The top seeded Florida Gators will likely be motivated to try and make a statement against the Wolfpack this weekend. Despite finishing with the nation’s #1 ranking in multiple polls (all major polls but one, actually), the #1 NCAA RPI, and a 45-18 record against the #1 ranked toughest schedule in the nation, the Gators have little to show for it so far.

They lost in the SEC Tourney, not even reaching the championship game, and finished the regular season tied only for the 3rd best conference record in the SEC at 18-12. A strong finish by South Carolina kept them from even taking the SEC East division pennant. A College World Series appearance would certainly take away some of that sting, and if I’m them I’m wanting to beat some folks, and beat them badly.

Perhaps unfortunately for the Pack, Florida showed signs of heating up during regional play, and if the Gators get in a groove they can beat just about anybody badly.

Game Times – TV Coverage

  • GAME ONE – Saturday, June 9th, 2pm – ESPNU
  • GAME TWO – Sunday, June 10th, 1pm – ESPNU
  • GAME THREE – Monday, June 11th, 1pm – ESPN2 (if necessary)

 

The Competition – Florida Gators Team Capsule

2012 Season Results: 45-18 (18-12 SEC, t3rd). Finished 2nd SEC East Division, t3rd overall. SEC Tourney – 2-2 (beat Auburn, SCar, lost to Vandy twice). Gainesville Regional – 3-0 (beat Bethune-Cookman, GT twice). 7-3 in their last 10.

OFFENSE: Not surprisingly, Florida is an above average hitting club with a team batting avg. of .281 (5th SEC) and 592 hits on the season (5th SEC). Pack pitching will have to be on top of their game this weekend, however, as the Gators are the best power hitting team in the country and regularly make opposing pitching staffs pay for their mistakes with 71 HR on the season (1st SEC, 1st NCAA) and a slugging pct. of .448 (1st SEC).

Florida's Mike Zunino

All-American Junior C (#3) Mike Zunino bats at a .316 clip and leads his Gators team with 18 HR and a seemingly impossible slugging pct. of .667 in 231 at bats.  Senior (#25) Preston Tucker matches Zunino’s .316 avg., while knocking 15 roundtrippers of his own and posting a .579 slugging pct. Junior leadoff man (#4) Nolan Fontana gets on base a lot prior to a lot of those homers being hit (on base pct .414), but he also hits his own share with 9 on the year. Even after Senior (#8) Daniel Pigott (.321, 7 HR, 38 RBI) and Junior (#35) Brian Johnson (.310, 5 HR, 40 RBI), it doesn’t get much easier.

The Gators have drawn 234 walks on the year (4th SEC) and scored 370 runs w/ 339 batted in (both 3rd SEC). Despite their power, Florida hitters rarely strike out with only 332 Ks this season (2nd fewest SEC). Florida baserunners have also stolen 60 bases on 86 attempts.

PITCHING & DEFENSE: Wolfpack hitters will have perhaps their biggest challenge of the season against the Gators and will need to work hard, concentrate and be patient if they expect to continue seeing the ball and hitting it well, as they face a pitching staff which ranks among the nation’s elite. The Gators carry a staff ERA of 2.85 (2nd SEC, 5th NCAA), and hold opposing hitters to a .240 avg. On the season they’ve given up only 201 runs (1st SEC), and issued only 127 walks (1st SEC). Opposing batters have hit only 29 HR against them, while striking out 471 times.

Florida's Brian Johnson

Doing it at the plate and on the mound, Junior LHP (#35) Brian Johnson (8-4, 3.56 ERA, 16 starts) is tied for tops among Gators’ pitchers for both wins (8) and innings pitched (86.0), along with Junior RHP (#11) Hudson Randall (8-2, 2.83, 14 starts). Sophomore RHP (#23) Jonathon Crawford (6-2, 2.92 ERA, 65 Ks, 13 starts) and Sophomore RHP (#22) Karsten Whitson (3-0, 3.31 ERA, 10 starts) have been used as both regular starters and out of the pen.  Crawford in particular appears pretty comfortable when used either way, tossing a no hitter in his last outing as the Gators blanked Bethune-Cookman 4-0 in their opening game of the Gainesville Regional.

Among Florida’s set up men, Senior RHP (#37) Greg Larson carries an anorexic season ERA of 1.31 and has six wins of his own (6-0), while Junior LHP (#32) Steven Rodriguez is 3-2 with 4 saves, an ERA of 2.08 and 79 Ks (against only 13 BB). The Gators’ closer, Junior RHP (#10) Austin Maddox, is 3-3 with 12 saves and an ERA of 2.24.

Defensively, the Gators again rank near the top of the heap nationally with a .978 team fielding pct. (3rd SEC, 10th NCAA) and only 53 errors (4th SEC). Opposing baserunners have stolen 52 bases on 74 attempts.

 

Other Super Regional Action

While the Pack doesn’t open play in Gainesville until Saturday, Super Regional play begins elsewhere on Friday. All times for game threes are “if necessary” and subject to change; all times eastern.

Games Friday thru Sunday:

  • (1) Stanford @ (1) Florida State (Tallahassee) – 7pm/6pm/7pm
  • (2) TCU @ (1) UCLA (LA) – 9pm/9pm/10pm
  • (4) Stony Brook @ (1) LSU (Baton Rouge) – 12pm/12pm/1pm
  • (3) St. John’s @ (1) Arizona (Tucson) – 3pm/3pm/4pm

Games Saturday thru Monday:

  • (1) NC State @ (1) Florida (Gainesville) – 2pm/1pm/1pm
  • (3) Kent St. @ (1) Oregon (Eugene) – 11pm/10pm/7pm
  • (2) Arkansas @ (1) Baylor (Waco) – 5pm/4pm/4pm
  • (2) Oklahoma @ (1) S. Carolina (Columbia) – 8pm/7pm/7pm

 

College World Series – The Basics

It’s never too early to look forward to Omaha. In conversing with some folks recently, there seems to be some confusion about how the CWS works, exactly.

There are eight super regional winners which will advance to the CWS in Omaha. In Omaha the teams are divided into two four-team groups. Each four-team group plays SEPARATE seeded four team double elimination brackets. The two teams that emerge from each bracket then play a best of three for the championship.

It’s basically the same as regional to super regional in the earlier rounds.

There is no pool play. There is no sudden death one game championship game.

The CWS gets underway on Friday June 15th. Bracket play runs from 6/15 thru 6/22, with each bracket essentially alternating days of play, thus reducing pitching wear and tear. The two teams left standing after bracket play then face off in their best of three series beginning Sunday, June 24.

 

Media Coverage

GatorSports.com has a brief piece, reflecting what they think of the Pack, with their N.C. State baseball scouting report:

‘Pack at the plate: Other than outfielder Ryan Mathews, who has a team-leading 17 home runs and 62 RBIs, State does not have a lot of power. The rest of the lineup has produced only 25 home runs. The Wolfpack, however, know how to produce runs, and a lot of the offense is generated by hit-and-runs and aggressive baserunning. Trea Turner (.344, 42 RBIs) leads the nation in stolen bases with 56. State’s other top guns at the plate are Chris Diaz (.356, 25 doubles, 55 RBIs) and Danny Canela (.342, 6 HRs, 44 RBIs).

‘Pack on the mound: North Carolina State has a dominant No. 1 starter in true freshman Carlos Rodon, the ACC pitcher and freshman of the year. Rodon is 9-0 with an ERA of 1.61 and 132 strikeouts in 111 innings. Opponents are hitting only .181 against him. The other starters are Ethan Ogburn (5-3, 3.23) and Anthony Tzamtzis (5-5, 3.84). The Wolfpack have a deep and effective bullpen, led by closer Chris Overman, who has six saves and has struck out 42 in 33 innings. Overall, opposing teams are hitting only .231 with 22 home runs against the State staff.

Florida flavor: State’s top four offensive players — Mathews, Turner, Diaz and Canela — are all from the state of Florida. Mathews, who is from Orlando, played at Santa Fe College before signing with the Wolfpack. Overall, State has eight players from Florida on its roster.

 

Chip Alexander (N&O) shows us that Vandy Coach Tim Corbin chose his words carefully, but says the Pack stacks up well with the Gators as N.C. State baseball turns attention to Florida:

“I think North Carolina State stacks up well,” Corbin said. “They’ve got a very good hitting team. They’ve got a couple of guys who can leave the ballpark and in (Ryan) Mathews have a quality power hitter. They’ve got a very similar ballpark as they play in here (at Doak). The lines are shallow (329 feet down left-field line, 325 in right).

“In saying that, I think Florida is the best team in the country that we’ve played this year. Their pitching is very good. They can hit. They don’t make mistakes. And they’ll be playing at home. Does that factor into it? It does factor into it.”

The Gators swept a three-game series from the Commodores during the regular season but lost twice to Vandy in the SEC tournament. Florida bounced back to sweep through the Gainesville Regional, getting a no-hitter from Jonathan Crawford in a 4-0 win against Bethune-Cookman, then dispatching Georgia Tech 6-2 and 15-3.

Chip also has more about the Pack’s Florida connection – Florida a homecoming for several N.C. State baseball players

 

And of course, Tarran Senay has been a popular subject so far this week:

NewsObserver.com – Tudor: Pack baseball hero knew he had hit it out

RALEIGH — There might have been doubt among N.C. State baseball fans at Doak Field Monday, but Tarran Senay knew immediately.

“Yeah, it felt like it was out right away,” said the reserve outfielder. “I was lucky enough to hit it exactly the way I was hoping to.”

“It” was a full-count, three-run homer over the right-field fence in the eighth inning against Vanderbilt in the championship game of the NCAA Tournament Raleigh Region.

JournalNow.com (Winston-Salem) – Senay off bench, into history

RALEIGH — Tarran Senay didn’t sleep much Monday night or Tuesday after almost single-handedly carrying N.C. State to the Raleigh Regional title in the NCAA baseball tournament.

In one of the top feats of the college season, and in school history, Senay came off the bench to play left field in the seventh inning of the championship game Monday, and in two at-bats, he drove in five runs, helping his team win 9-7.

 

And last but by no means least, a truly fantastic piece from Conor O’Neill of TheTimesNews.com (Burlington), Wolfpack banks on high character en route to NCAA super regional…

RALEIGH — North Carolina State baseball coach Elliott Avent said the mood in his team’s locker room after losing to Vanderbilt on Saturday night “didn’t compare” to the mood after the 12th-inning loss to North Carolina in the ACC Tournament.

It was that bad.

But for how awful N.C. State felt Saturday night, the feelings were flipped when the Wolfpack dog-piled in front of the mound on Monday night after Ryan Wilkins shut down Vanderbilt for a 9-7 victory.

In that victory, and Sunday victories against UNC Wilmington and Vanderbilt to set up Monday’s drama, the Wolfpack displayed the same poise that has driven through the season.

 

UF Vitals and Some Fun Stuff

 

UF Vitals

  • Gainesville, Florida
  • Est. 1853
  • Type: Public
  • Enrollment: Approx. 49,600
  • Southeast Conference (SEC)
  • Mascot: Gators
  • Colors: Orange and Blue

Famous UF Alumni include incumbent North Carolina Governor “Bev” Perdue; the Ol’ Ball Coach, Steve Spurrier; the NFL’s Emmitt Smith and Tim Tebow (among many others past and present); and ESPN hottie, Erin Andrews.

And whether you like Tebowmania or not, it’s hard to argue with fans like this…

Tebow Fan

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

…and this…

Gator Supporters

…plus, they have cheerleaders that look like this…

Gators Cheerleader Pool Party Click to enlarge (recommended)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hopefully the Pack will have its mind (and its eyes) on business this weekend.  Perhaps if they need help, a couple of notorious “Gator Hators” can lend a hand:

Early & Elvis, Gator Hators

Best Granny Ever

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Miscellaneous Notes:

We’ll add more as Saturday’s first pitch draws nearer, but for now here’s something to get you started…

  • Two of the three finalists for the 2012 Golden Spikes Award will be facing off in Gainesville this weekend…Florida’s Mike Zunino and NC State’s Carlos Rodon (The third, Stanford’s Jr. righthander Mark Appel, will also be in the state of Florida as the Cardinal visits FSU for its Super Regional tilt).
  • Between the two teams, there will be four All-Americans competing…For the first team it’s Zunino and Rodon again, of course.  For the second team it’s the Gators’ Mr. Everything Brian Johnson, and the Pack’s go to SS, Chris Diaz.
  • A combined nine All-Conference (ACC & SEC) performers will take the field in Gainesville this weekend.

 

UF’s Alfred A. McKethan Stadium at Perry Field notes and numbers:

  • Opened 1988 (701-231)
  • Capacity: 5,500 (but has held crowds as big as 6,100)
  • Surface: Natural
  • Dimensions:
    • Left Field: 329 feet
    • Left Center: 365 feet
    • Center Field: 400 feet
    • Right Center: 375 feet
    • Right Field: 325 feet
BEST COLLEGE BASEBALL STADIUMS
Source: January 1998 Baseball America
1. Arkansas (Baum Stadium)
2. Hawaii (Rainbow Stadium)
3. Auburn (Plainsman Park)
4. Mississippi State (Dudy Noble Field)
5. San Diego State (Tony Gwynn Stadium)
6. Fresno State (Beiden Field)
7. FLORIDA (McKethan Stadium)
8. Clemson (Tiger Field)
9. Texas A&M (Olsen Field)
10. Arizona State (Packard Stadium)
11. Ohio State (Bill Davis Stadium)
12. Texas (Disch-Falk Field)
13. Georgia (Foley Field)
14. Tennessee (Lindsey Nelson Stadium)
15. Long Beach State (Blair Field)

 

–

Keep it rollin’ thru Gainesville, Gentlemen!

Good Luck and Go Pack!

–

About Wufpacker

A 2nd generation alumnus and raised since birth to be irrationally dedicated to all things NC State. Class of '88 and '92.

Baseball

153 Responses to Gainesville Super Regional Preview

  1. Dr. BadgerPack 06/08/2012 at 5:15 AM #

    Nice preview. Throw in that Crawford threw a no-hitter in Florida’s regional.

    I did chuckle a bit at this: “a seemingly impossible slugging pct. of .667 in 231 at bats” in reference to Zunino. It made me think how spoiled we get with respect to our players, particularly Ryan Mathews, who is only slugging .650. 🙂

    If the weather cooperates (which now it seems it will not) it should be a nice 3 days of baseball. If we get a double-header thrown in, it will screw things up a bit.

  2. patientwuf 06/08/2012 at 7:00 AM #

    Great write up Wuf. I like your style.

    Still curious about our pitching rotation for the weekend.

    I’m stoked about this weekend.

  3. vtpackfan 06/08/2012 at 8:29 AM #

    Don’t want to break it down to just “house money” as the program sits, but that’s logistically how it looks.

    I would say that while UF is playing with purpose, the Wolfpack is the one team I wouldn’t want to host at this years superegional.
    -Overpowering ace to throw game one.
    -Upperclassman and captains, Cities, Diaz, Williams, who are the quiet, lace em up tight, buckle-down, type grinders.
    -A nucleus of youngsters with who play the game w/o a care in the world because last year they were 12th grade sitting next to kids picking their nose humming Justin Beaver tunes.

    Definitely start Carlos and follow with Ogburn and Tzam if needed. No need to play around-tell them up front and get them settled into the plan.

  4. 61Packer 06/08/2012 at 8:48 AM #

    I’m not clear on exactly how the Omaha format works and why it’s not considered pool play. It looks exactly like the ACCT format to me.

  5. ChemE79a 06/08/2012 at 9:15 AM #

    As I understand it 61Packer there are two major differences.

    1. In Omaha the groups of four are double elimination (like the regional), not single pass round robin (like the ACC tournament). The Omaha format avoids all the complicated 2-1 tiebreakers that put Miami in the championship game in the ACC tournament. Just like the regional you keep playing until only one team has less than two losses.

    2. In Omaha the championship is also a 2 team double elimination (like the super regional) not a one game winner-take-all (like the ACC tournament).

  6. CaptainCraptacular 06/08/2012 at 10:01 AM #

    The weather is very likely now going to be a problem and play havoc with the rotation. I’m a worry wart, but I’d give some consideration to holding Rodon back till Sunday, as there will more likely be a full uninterrupted game then.

    Saturday is forecast to be 60% chance of rain, but if it is anything like the last two, the rain will continue off and on all day without more than one consecutive dry hour.

  7. fvpackman 06/08/2012 at 11:00 AM #

    Og, Carlos , Z if needed…thats the rotation for the weekend…just like it was 90% of the season…..

  8. patientwuf 06/08/2012 at 12:00 PM #

    “Og, Carlos , Z if needed…thats the rotation for the weekend…just like it was 90% of the season…..”

    That’s what I was thinking.

  9. Tuffy2 06/08/2012 at 1:23 PM #

    “Trees will tapdance, elephants will drive in the Indianapolis 500, and Orson Wells will skip lunch before North Carolina State finds a way to beat ________”

    The Gators are so intent in making a statement and throwing their power around. I get it and I am sure they are bad as hell.

    This is a best of three series and the gators will go up against the best pitcher they have seen all year in game one. Just like them Roden has something to prove after his last outing. So I say that is a push in game one.

    We pull that game out we have two days to win one game. That would be tasting it as they say.

  10. 61Packer 06/08/2012 at 2:01 PM #

    I don’t think weather will interfere with State’s rotation.

    The OU-Alabama women’s softball championship game was held up for hours before starting, and played in ridiculous conditions that had a bearing on the outcome. And that was because of television. There may be 4-hour rain delays, but never a rainout. Not if ESPN can help it.

  11. CaptainCraptacular 06/08/2012 at 2:52 PM #

    Tuffy – FV has the scoop. Rodon will pitch game 2.

  12. Lunatic Fringe 06/08/2012 at 3:34 PM #

    #7 LSU vs Stoney Brook game (still on btw) should be enough for anyone to realize anything can happen on the baseball field. It has been a hell of a game today with Stoney Brook giving LSU all they can handle (now 11 innings).

  13. Wufpacker 06/08/2012 at 3:39 PM #

    LSU just keeps on breaking Stony Brook’s heart. Seawolves took 1 run leads into bottom of 9th, 10th and 11th, only to watch LSU erase them each inning with solo shots. They were one strike and a muffed pop foul (admittedly tough play…but still) away from winning in the 10th.

    4-4 going to 12th

  14. Wufpacker 06/08/2012 at 3:41 PM #

    And now it’s raining in Baton Rouge.

    St. John’s putting it to UofA right now, 5-0 in 4th.

  15. Whiteshoes67 06/08/2012 at 4:29 PM #

    Not my intent to start bashing Avent, just calling it as I see it. Pulling for him and the team 100%. But IMO, after many WTF coaching decisions during the regional, holding Rodon back until Sunday in the super isn’t the way to play it. FL is the favorite to win the whole thing. Sure, it would be great to get a win with your #2 start on the bump, then have Rodon on the mound on Sunday, but what are the percentages? FL is 31-10 versus righties, and has played the toughest schedule in the toughest conference. On the other hand, they’re 14-8 versus lefties, and we possibly have the best in the college game. Why not put pressure on the hands down favorite by throwing your best on Saturday? I don’t get it.

  16. Wufpacker 06/08/2012 at 4:30 PM #

    Is anyone interested in periodic ongoing out of town reports and/or perhaps evening recaps of each day’s games? Don’t mind doing it but no point if no one gives a rat’s posterior, to borrow from DBP’s book of curtness.

    @DBP – Added Crawford’s no no in the preview, btw…completely forgot about it. Thanks for the heads up.

  17. Wufpacker 06/08/2012 at 4:41 PM #

    @Whiteshoes67
    While I agree with you and would start Rodon game one, I’m actually pretty OK with Ogburn. He’s usually around the plate, gets his share of K’s without a lot of walks. Extra baserunners will kill us against UF if we let them. If he can mix speeds and keep them off balance and not tee off on him, I like his chances.

    And there is something to be said for staying with what got you there.

  18. fvpackman 06/08/2012 at 5:00 PM #

    what are the wtf moves from last weekend? we won the thing by going 4-1 beating one of the hottest teams in the country 2 days in a row….

    fv

  19. Wufpacker 06/08/2012 at 5:08 PM #

    Personally, I questioned staying with Jernigan as long as they did in the last game. Not a wtf considering the state of the bullpen at that point, but still thought they should have made a move when the game was still tied. Lucky to have survived that IMHO.

  20. fvpackman 06/08/2012 at 5:10 PM #

    Maybe it was bringing Wilkins in 2 days in a row….oh I know…it was putting Senay in the game in the 7th…that was a wtf move I am sure…..I mean he only had 5 rbi’s in 2 innings…..some of you just crack me up…short of going to the cws in 68 we have not had a better year then 2012 in Pack Baseball EVER….we just had the greatest weekend at Doak ever….we are the only team from NC still playing…no matter what happens we will not have lost more then 2 games in a row the entire season…and we are in the sweet 16 playing with a team that has everyone coming back except Diaz and Matthews….and you still talk about Avent and wtf moves from last weekend….I give up….haters going to hate….

    fv

  21. Wufpacker 06/08/2012 at 5:16 PM #

    Not hating and not anti-Avent here. But I’ll call a spade a spade. Staying with Jernigan as long as we did was questionable. I notice you didn’t make your opinion about that issue known in your heated response to things I never said (or even implied).

    I know there are some folks with anti-Avent agendas that get out of hand, but your closeness seems to be sending you the other way. Questioning managerial moves is always gonna be part of the game, fv. Sorry.

  22. Lunatic Fringe 06/08/2012 at 5:20 PM #

    I don’t have an issue with Ogburn starting 1st in a best of 3 and I actually see some good coming out of it.

    IF Ogburn gets the win than you bring in Rodon to close it out Sunday.
    IF Ogburn gets the loss the team knows they have Rodon waiting for game 2 to turn momentum.

    One more thing, Rodon helps to stretch your bullpen since he can usually go deep into innings. IF we have to go to bullpen early on Saturday we have good shot of Rodon going deep so they get a breather for all hands on deck Monday (if necessary).

    It’s not like you are going to use Rodon pitching on Monday if he goes Saturday. I also like going R – L – R as a general rule to give other team something different to look at each day.

  23. fvpackman 06/08/2012 at 5:24 PM #

    I think that Tom and Elliott knew how thin our BP was at that point after having used Vance to start on Friday…they also knew that Login had not pitched in a game in over 2 weeks and that they had him throw a live 100 pitch BP on tues before the start…he struggled early in the bp and got stronger as he went….I think they did what they thought they had to do to give us a chance to win in the end,,,,and we did…..no problems questioning moves at all…but the poster (not you) said many wtf moves last weekend….I have a problem with that after going 4-1 and making MANY right moves in beating Vandy 2 times in a row…..

  24. Lunatic Fringe 06/08/2012 at 5:27 PM #

    One more note, NC State is more likely to “steal” a game the first game of a series if UF comes in flat. IF they were to lose the first…I would expect them to bring their “A-game” for game 2, but I believe Rodon has shot at getting win regardless of team’s intensity.

    LSU and Arizona clearly both underestimated Stoney Brook & St Johns. They ended up in dog fights before they even knew it.

  25. CaptainCraptacular 06/08/2012 at 5:29 PM #

    @Whiteshoes….

    The rain has been coming in very frequently for the last few days, which is supposed to continue through Saturday. By very frequently, I mean it has been raining more than not (and threatening to rain 100% of the time) although that let up ever so slightly today.

    Is it worth the risk to throw Rodon game 1 if there there’s a significant chance of a mid-game delay or delays – forcing him to the bench and basically burning him without getting a quality full outing? Sunday the weather is forecast to clear somewhat and the chances of getting a full one in without a mid-game delay is better.

    Maybe I’m off base here but I would think that plays into the strategy.

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